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#1
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Hey everyone. I poked around a bit and noticed that no one seems to be talking about Y2K...
Is it just hype? Just a way for freaks and fundamentatlists to get attention? A plot by programmers to take the money and run? Or... We're ALL GONNA DIE!!!!!!!!!!!! SAVE YOURSLEVES!!!!! AAAAAAEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE! Talk amongst yourselves. ------------------ ************* Are YOU ready for Y2K? Take my advice: Panic early and avoid the rush. |
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#2
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I vote for hype. People with a lot more money than you or I could lose it all on the Y2K bug, so I imagine they take such things *very* seriously, and they have the resources to correct it. We won't know until after Jan 1, but I don't expect worse than a few messed up bills.
I have a friend who warned me in all seriousness not to be within 50 miles of a major city on New Year's. I don't plan to be, but that's because there's going to be 5 billion people attempting to have the party of the millenium. ------------------ "Eppur, si muove!" - Galileo Galilei |
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#3
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I've been a programmer for over 10 years, and I think it's mostly hype. If people hadn't started talking about it a couple of years ago and only discovered the potential problems last week, I'd be worried. But at this point, most major systems have been upgraded and fixed and whatnot.
I think there'll be a lot of major systems that have no problems at all, a lot of minor systems that have little problems, and a few major systems that have major problems. The corporations with those major problems will fix them quickly (before February) or will risk going out of business. If the system with the problem belongs to the government, it could be 2001 before it gets fixed, but in that case we'll do what we always do: grumble and trudge forward. Rich |
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#4
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We're all gonna die, so there's not much point in talking about it. The only thing you can do is to follow ARG's word and accept Jesus as your Lord and Savior so you'll go to heaven when the clock strikes 12:00.
< Closed Captioned for the sarcasm impaired > |
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#5
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I expect major problems, and from two independent causes:
(1) The small problems which VegForLife forsees will snowball. A small supplier cannot supply a critical thing to a large company, for example, and then all the large company's customers will suffer, causing a disaster to consumers. (Let's not forget how many other countries are much less prepared than the USA is!) (2) Expect a run on the banks in late December, fueled by fear alone. This will cause a run on the banks in early December, fueled by fear of that fear. Don't be surprised if suspicion of fear of panic causes problems in November or even October. |
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#6
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I expect the stock market will drop around then, fron noodniks who sell their stocks to put it into gold or 500 cans of baked beans and a bomb shelter. But not a *huge* drop.
------------------ "Eppur, si muove!" - Galileo Galilei |
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#7
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#1) Non-economically, hyped up the wazoo except for the fear of the fear as already mentioned.
#2) Will be a serious problem to the export/import business. Many nations other than US, Canada & those in Western Europe are hopelessly unprepared for Y2K especially since they tend to have older systems. This will have a tremendous impact on the economy but especially to those countries. #3) I predict we will see at least a few major companies will get hit hard. Impossible to say which ones, which is where all the fun will be ... watching the (albeit limited) Y2K fallout. |
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#8
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Keeves (in #2) and Gaudere do make valid points -- I don't think we have anything to fear but fear itself. (Hey, that's a good line -- I should write that down.) I'm not worried about the computers; I'm worried about the idiots who may believe these moronic end-of-the-world books and cause the very problem they seek to avoid.
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#9
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Immagin the cost to utilities should their meters stop counting on 1/1/00! Think of the loses to banks & other financial orgs. if their computers crash . Are the airlines prepaired for their planes to fall from the sky? If Y2K is as the doomsayers predict, big (& small) business stand to loose countless $$$! Not likely. A promo for tonites local news said that they will tell us why everything that we own, containing a comp. chip will fail! My car, microwave, coffee maker, TV, sterio. etc. all have chips. None of them knows, nor cares what year it is! Somehow, I'm sure well make it into next year, ok. Besides, we just survived Nostradomus' 7th month of 1999 prediction!
------------------ Zymurgist |
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#10
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Keeves:
My sister's business, a small beauty shop in a tiny town in New Mexico, received a notice in their most recent bank statment informing them that in December, withdrawals will be limited to $50 per day. Hmmm. Here's my take on it: Logic dictates that some shit will hit some fans. No way to know which ones. Could be minor, could be really ugly. People (and businesses are, in the end, merely collections of people) are really good at denial, so I don't buy the idea that corporations have their Y2k thing all worked out for fear of losing money. I think they are afraid of spending money and finding out they didn't have to, so they are crossing their fingers and praying. I've been staying on top of this VERY closely for a year now. I put off my wedding to wait and see if I could afford a big one or a quick one after Y2k. I have no axe to graind either way except that I hope like hell it turns out to be nothing. But anyway, here's what I have concluded: We have two basic choices: dismiss it as hype and do little or nothing to prepare for it, or buy into it and plan to cover our asses. The degree to which you do that is up to you. And here's the bottom line: If the doomsayers are wrong, the people who prepared lose almost nothing (assuming they didn't sell everything they have and moved to Montana to live off Tang and other spacefood) - they are prepared for an emergency (an especially good idea in disaster -prone neighborhoods; I live in LA, aka "Shake and Bake") and they can use what they have prepared. They might take a bit of a hit financially if they made decisions they otherwise wouldn't have made. If the doomsayers are right, the people who didn't prepare are seriously, badly screwed. Perhaps even dead, depending. Personally, I plan to cover my ass and hope it's all hype. ------------------ ************* Are YOU ready for Y2K? Take my advice: Panic early and avoid the rush. |
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#11
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Mostly hype, with large helpings of paranoia and ignorance on the part of some of those who think that they might be affected, tempered by severe cluelessness on the part of many of the rest.
I have been an IT consultant for over 20 years (that per se is meaningless, of course). One of the principal reasons for the hysteria is that we seldom hold a press conference or put up a web page to announce, "We checked another million embedded processors or lines of COBOL-74 code, and, guess what, they were clean!" Like most things, it's the abnormal event that gets the media coverage. Dog bites man isn't news, man bites dog is, regardless of which species is actually threatened by extinction. On the other face of the coin are those who say (I paraphrase), "I have no alternative sources of light (like candles), an empty pantry, and routinely spend the last nickel on my person before bothering to visit an ATM; should I do something to prepare?" I used to routinely rdicule these people, until I realized, rather to my horror, that they were serious; if a car struck a utility pole outside their apartment and took out the power line (to say nothing of the cable TV), they have no alternative to curling up in a little ball and dying; random chance forbid that a blizzard or a hurricane should blow in. If anyone really knows a place that's so free of natural disasters that buying a flashlight would be a waste of money, let me know where it is; I'd like to move there. Otherwise, don't prepare for Y2K; prepare for a bad storm, and the Y2K preparations will take care of themselves. Both schools of thought will contribute to the problem. The hysteriacs will be sure that nothing can be done, the Pollyannas are sure that nothing will be done, and both elements will sit like deer in the oncoming headlights, one in the hills, the other on Ventura Boulevard. Both will be proven, more or less benignly, wrong. Incidentally, on a (non-Y2K) mailing list that I am part of, one other participant has, as his sig, the slogan "n days to 9/9/99". I don't know if he's serious or not; anyone who seriously offers this as a problem, however, may find the shaft of my cane blockling their lower digestive tract (and, let me tell you, that that flashlight can cause pain). ------------------ "Kings die, and leave their crowns to their sons. Shmuel HaKatan took all the treasures in the world, and went away." |
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#12
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Stoidela wrote
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I've been sitting bored through a couple of years of "We have verified X% of our systems to be okay" and "We don't expect any problems", and various contradictory Urban Legends about whether or not the airlines have cancelled their flights for New Year's Weekend. Out of left field, a bank has actually announced that they are taking measures to prevent losing all their greenbacks. I would love to forward this info to everyone on my Panic List, but some of them may dismiss it as an Urban Legend. I would love it if you could tell us the name of the bank, and their website and/or phone number so we can verify this. In<expletive>credible! |
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#13
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I'm waiting for Adam to reply. Thought he would have jumped on this one by now.
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#14
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Carl Berry wrote:
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My guess is, one of his quatrains predicts the End of the World said something vague about "thousands" or "odometers about to turn over" (or the equivalent of odometers in the 1500s), and some entrepreneurial doomsayer out there decided Nostradamus meant July 1999 so that he could sell "I was there at the end of the world and all I got was this lousy T-shirt" T-shirts. ------------------ |
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#15
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I seriously doubt that there are more than a handful of little systems out there that will be adversely affected, but I'm sure at least one will make the news somewhere. Or did I miss your point? Rich |
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#16
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I recently saw a comedian who said something like:
"Well, I don't see why everyone is so worried about all the computers crashing with Y2K...with my credit being so bad, I'm praying for it!" Cracked me up..and gave me new hope ![]() ------------------ If at first you don't succeed, redefine success. |
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#17
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I hate to beat a dead horse, but I'm going to go with hype. I think that ignorance from all levels of society has pushed a few crackpots (including the ones that wrote the Senate report) to the brink of doomsday predictions. It shocks me, as a computer science major, that people don't understand the machines they use every day. I even heard my dad say something to the effect of "It's not going to be good when the Russian nukes get launched because their computers get shut down." I think the next level of Y2K preparation should be on the Teeming Millions that wouldn't know a BIOS chip from a RAM SIMM.
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#18
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VegForLife writes:
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------------------ "Kings die, and leave their crowns to their sons. Shmuel HaKatan took all the treasures in the world, and went away." |
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#19
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I think he explained the 9/9/99 problem poorly. It has nothing to do with the number "9999". Rather, when a programmer writes a program, and the program needs you to enter a date, then your only choice is to enter some kind of date, or maybe leave it blank. Unless he programmer is willing and able to put extra work into the project, you can't put words in there.
This causes a problem if the situation is one where words would be really helpful. For example, suppose the program wants to know when a certain event is scheduled. It wants a specific date, but you want to say something like "as soon as possible" or "never". In many systems, you can fudge "asap" by putting today's date in, but how do you tell it "never"? So the computer operators found a simple solution: Enter a genuine date which is so far in the future that no one has to worry about it. Some used "12/31/99" for this purpose, but "9/9/99" is just as good, and a lot quicker to type in. It became something of a de fecto standard, and eventually, the programmers who blessed us with this problem even incorporated it into the program, with things like "IF DATE=9/9/99 THEN DO SUCHANDSUCH". So the problem now is, what's gonna happen if those systems are still in use - WHICH THEY ARE - and we really want to schedule our event for Sept 9, but the program thinks it doesn't need to worry about it? |
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#20
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No, Keeves, the alleged "9/9/99" problem has nothing to do with dates indefinitely far in the future; it has to do with alleged EOF (end-of-file) markers.
Now, EOF exception handling has been in place for at least 30 years (very likely longer, but that's as far back as my own knowledge goes). It's possible that some programmer way back in the Stone Age (i.e., the 1950's) didn't have that exception handling available to him, and decided to make "9999" an EOF marker, and somehow decided to make an initial date field variable-length, so that he could save a byte or two, thus allowing the date field to potentially read "9999", and never bothered to test that piece of code before putting it in production (that, I'm sorry to have to admit, happens too often), and no one in 40+ years has noticed that the program doesn't work unless someone stands over the data entry clerks with a whip and makes them enter "9999" in the last record of every file. Maybe that programmer was carried off by space aliens, too; it's no more improbable than anything else I've hypothesized here. Incidentally, one will never see the code "IF DATE = 9/9/99 THEN DO" in a program. The code "IF DATE = '09/09/99' THEN DO" is possible, but, unlike sloppy human beings who assume that they can differentiate between numeric and character data in the blink of an eye, computers want these things made explicit so that there is no confusion. ------------------ "Kings die, and leave their crowns to their sons. Shmuel HaKatan took all the treasures in the world, and went away." |
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#21
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I thought I'd contribute the following to this discussion. It is my review of The Millenium Bug: How to Survive the Coming Chaos, by Michael Hyatt (the cover claims it was a New York Times bestseller). This review appeared in the December 6, 1998, State Journal-Register and is copyright 1998. It is reprinted here by the author.
Cheap Scare Tactics Undercut 'Millenium Bug' Warning by David Bloomberg It’s one minute after midnight on January 1, 2000. In the middle of your big party, the power goes out—everywhere. You light candles and wait for it to come back in a few minutes. It doesn’t. Your friends go home to take care of their kids. Everybody waits. Two weeks later, there is still no power. There is also no running water. The stores are all closed. Chaos is everywhere. You and your neighbors set up armed patrols to keep away looters. Society is collapsing. All this occurs because some computer programmers a few decades ago decided to save memory space, which was then very precious, by using the last two digits of each year instead of all four. Thus, when the year 2000 rolls around, a number of computers and the equipment they run will think it is the year 1900, causing them to malfunction or crash completely. Will this really happen? It is one of the possible scenarios given by Michael Hyatt in his new book, “The Millenium Bug: How to Survive the Coming Chaos” (Regnery Publishing, $24.95). Wyatt’s book contains a great deal of scary information, with numerous footnotes that make it look rather impressive. The question, however, is not one of how many footnotes he has accumulated, but how much a person really needs to panic based on that information. From the title alone, the reader can surmise that Hyatt believes a fair amount of panic is warranted, and indeed this is carried through in the text. In the introduction, Wyatt says he is “convinced that the Y2K [Year 2000] problem presents us with, potentially, the most significant, extensive, and disruptive crisis we have ever faced.” The rest of the book has the same tone. It is clear that Wyatt believes people are not taking this problem seriously. The reader may get the feeling that he believes the sky is falling, but nobody is paying any attention. Wyatt does make some good points. Yes, there will be problems. Some systems will not have been properly upgraded; these may fail. It’s not just our home computers we have to worry about, or even the mainframes running many business operations. Many types of equipment contain embedded computer chips that keep track of the date for various reasons. While it won’t bother people terribly if their answering machine provides the wrong date, it could be troublesome if nuclear power plants have parts that fail to operate in a timely manner. But will those power plants fail? We obviously cannot know for sure until 2000, but Wyatt seems to assume a large number of these chips will fail, along with the power grid, banking system, etc. He relates a number of horror stories, but is speculating based on assumptions, which in some cases may already be out of date due to the time lag between writing this book and publishing it. Later, Wyatt makes a curious statement as he begins his third section, on preparing for life after 2000. He claims, “Up until this point, I have presented to you the facts about the Year 2000 problem. I have documented my sources and presented what I have found in a manner that is as objective as I know how to make it.” But the reader may be forgiven for questioning him. Throughout the first two parts of the book, Wyatt uses highly-charged language, emotional images, and a fair amount of speculation. For example, in discussing the situation with local police, he says, “It’s one thing if our military is not able to protect our allies and keep the peace in faraway foreign countries. It is quite another thing if our local police are not able to guarantee our personal safety and well-being at home.” This is not an objective, documented statement. It is a blatant attempt to scare the reader. Other what-ifs include newborns with brain damage due to malfunctioning hospital equipment and patients dying on the operating table due to unreliable biomedical equipment. One can almost hear Chicken Little yelling, “The sky is falling!” Yet Wyatt claims this was the objective part of the book. Once he does go into the part he admits is speculation, it doesn’t get much better. He immediately discards the notion that the Year 2000 problem will be a “nonevent” and gives three possible scenarios: brownout, blackout, and meltdown. The scenario that began this review is closest to his blackout example. Wyatt believes we will find ourselves somewhere between the brownout and blackout scenarios, depending on how well the banks and power grid do. The final chapter deals with Wyatt’s advice on preparing for that possibility. Some of these suggestions make sense if you think the power will fail and each person will be on his own for a while. Stockpiling food is a good idea, for example, and if the blackout never comes, then nothing is lost since you will still need to eat. But other suggestions involve massive life changes. Wyatt advises the reader to move from the city to avoid possible looters. He recommends buying silver and gold coins because they have “intrinsic” value and will become the “preferred method of purchasing goods.” These suggestions go a bit over the top. If one really does believe the Y2K problem will cause the collapse of society, it doesn’t seem to make much sense to invest in pieces of metal that, contrary to his claim, have no “intrinsic” value to somebody who is starving and cold. This book ends as it began, by trying to scare the reader. If you choose to ignore his warnings, “you may end up a victim.” Indeed, there is no way to know until that fateful day arrives. But it is possible to inform people objectively of the potential problems without trying to scare them using emotional language and speculation. Wyatt would have better served readers by putting more of his effort into facts and reasonable solutions instead of playing the part of Chicken Little. |
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#22
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I'm not a computer programmer, by any means, so I'm depending on the predictions of the few I know. They're saying, "Unless there's a panic, expect a few annoyances (sp?) but nothing disasterous. Prepare like you might for a blizzard which is a good idea anyway considering there may be one where you live at some point over the winter." |
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#23
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David B:
Have you read Ed Yourdon's book? It is excellent. He addresses the question very calmly, seems to have no axe whatsoever, and really does nothing more than inform. He looks at each area of society, explains where the problems MAY lie, and gives 3 suggestions for coping based on problems lasting a few days, a few months, a year, 10 years. Leaves it entirely up to the reader to determine for themselves how likely anything is and prepare accordingly. Anyone who is still wondering or hasn't really delved deeply (and this I feel applies to most people, who have probably just read a few articles here and there) and wants a very balanced assessment of the possibilities without either cynicism or hysteria should read it. ------------------ ************* We do precision guesswork |
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#24
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Anywone else waiting for me to reply, besides Babar? This thread just caught my eye today.
I just think it's better to be safe than sorry. I know this has been said already, but I thought maybe you'd like to hear a "fanatic's" view. Like Stoidela said earlier, if you prepare for it, but nothing happens, then you just have some extra water, and food that can be used at a later date. But if you don't prepare, than you're in deep trouble. So I'll have some extra water, (which is essential in AZ)and some extra food to last maybe two weeks--one month max. And of course the usual disaster kit is a good idea. I've heard that a lot of pastors are telling their congregations to buy guns, and lots of ammo. (Luckily, my pastor actually uses his brain, and doesn't preach this message.) This is so when the power goes out for a year, you'll be prepared to defend your household against the burglars, and rioters. You guys would be amazed at some of the nonsense being taught in churches all over America. It's pretty scary. I'll be honest and say that I'm not so much scared of a computer glitch, as I'm worried about all the loonies who'll be armed to the teeth, and scared out of their wits. Frightened crazies with firearms. Hmm, that sounds like a recipe for disaster. Adam |
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#25
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Keeves was right, I explained what I've heard poorly, and his explanation was not what I was thinking. In any case, I'll take your word on the EOF interpretation. I still think that it's a *potential* problem, but that the likelihood that any major systems are going to fail is nil. Rich |
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#26
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Quote:
Rich |
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#27
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My beer is Y2K compliant.
But seriously, my prediction for the next few months: bank robberies, and lots of them. I base this prediction on simple economics. At the end of this year, banks will stockpile cash to guard against the many inevitable withdrawals. More cash means a greater demand for the supply. Thus more bank robbers willing to risk the crime. Perhaps my head is too deeply moved by Hollywood movies, but it's my worthless prediction nevertheless. December, 1999, is gonna be a crazy one. I hope we get through it in one piece. ------------------ ¾È ³ç, ÁÖ µ¿ ÀÏ |
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#28
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Stoidela wrote, a week ago:
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#29
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I looked at a Y2K website a while back that actually said that some of the people originally writing about the situation deliberately used scare tactics because they were convinced that was the only way they could get people to pay attention. I got the impression they were taking credit for the fact that businesses and banks and such were doing something about it. Basically they were saying that if the businesses were prepared for the problem, then the hype and panic they had caused would have been worth it.
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#30
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My husband likes to read about the crazy stuff surrounding the Y2K "problem," and he mentioned to me not long ago that he'd read somewhere that the federal government had ordered 30 million body bags, in preparation for extreme violence. Anyone else heard this one?
I personally am going to do what others here have said--prepare for extended bad weather. I will probably keep some cash on hand too, just in case, but I'm just going to cash a paycheck or two in December, not make any mass withdrawals. If there's a problem with the banks, I think it's just going to be with having access to money, not the money itself being gone. |
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#31
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Forgot to ask her (I've been all caught up in my dog dying ya know. Rough week.) I just e-mailed her for the name of the bank - her name and ACCOUNT NUMBER (Sheesh!) are none of your beezwax. arf.
stoid |
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#32
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I find myself very impressionable about this whole thing. I hear the doomsday folks talk and think, "Oh my God! They're right! This could be the end of the world!" and then I listen to very technically-educated rational folks who think that there will be some minor problems, but not life-altering, and I agree with them. I'm flip-flopping.
I'm very nervous about potential crime. I think that New Years Eve is going to be a helluva night. I think that night is going to be waaaaaaay more busy (with-or-without Y2K problems) for local law enforcement (due to Y2K, or just the heightened "millenium fever" that night will bring) and I'm sure the criminals know that law enforcement and 911 dispatch will be taxed. I wonder how much crime will go up that night? I work for a local law enforcement agency and it's looking like *all* employees will be either made to work that night or be on call (to do what, I don't know--I'm a civilian). They've already told us we can't have *any* vacation days the last two weeks of Dec and the first week of Jan in preparation for all hell to break loose. I'm a bit scared...of the people and crime, not the computer problems. whimper... |
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#33
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Stoidela, thank you for asking your sister, but if you'll reread my posting of 08-05-99 10:16 AM, you'll find that I wrote
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#34
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I just downloaded a piece of software off the Web that's supposed to tell me if my computer and software are Y2K compliant. Does that sound inherently wacky to anyone else? It's like asking your battery charger if your car can make it through the winter without a tune-up.
The whole Y2K thing is just the 20th century's answer to the whole millenium scare. It's the technological manifestation of 'the end of the world' in a quasi-religious sense that happens whenever some significant calendar date passes. I really do think that not a small number of people will stock up the fall-out shelter and liquify their assets, though. There's never been a shortage of crazies. I do think that developing countries are going to feel the effects, though. Many people in G8 nations are worried about power shortages and telecommunications blackouts, but think of those countries whose networks are the same ones we were using 20 years ago, Hopefully, the fact that some areas aren't as far along technologically as others will work to their advantage - the less dependency they have on computers and automation, the less a breakdown would affect them. All I know for sure is that I may have a few more cases of beer on hand than usual. No sense thumbing your nose at everything... Z ------------------ abusus non tolit usus |
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#35
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Frankly, I intend to be so drunk and stoned on Jan. 1, 2000, that I won't care.
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#36
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Ah, that explains your clever argument in another thread. . .
Rich |
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#37
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I've concluded that we are experiencing the largest case of denial in human history.
Off to buy my propane stove and firewood now. Ta-ta. |
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#38
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Y2k---no worse than a temporary power outage, if that.
9/9/99 problem----no, no! It's the 17/23 correlation! The Illuminati is behind it all, trying to trash our computers, thus preventing us from the all-important process of downloading Internet porn & bringing our Satan-inspired degenerate/Liberal society to it's knees!!!!! And we won't be able to play Pokemon, either!!1 Woe is us!! |
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#39
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All Hail Discordia !
------------------ The reason gentlemen prefer blondes is that there are not enough redheads to go around. |
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#40
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Even if every computer in the country go haywire, so what? Food will still be grown, it will still be transported, and rain will fall. We lived without computers before, and we can do it again. No electricity? Make do. I guess if you're one of those scientists in Anarctica you should stock up on staples in case no one's able to reach you, but then you should do so anyway.
BTW, in the Completely Clueless or Really Sneaky? department, I noticed a computer ad that bragged about "hardware Y2K compliance". ------------------ -Ryan " 'Ideas on Earth were badges of friendship or enmity. Their content did not matter.' " -Kurt Vonnegut, Breakfast of Champions |
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#41
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First of all, there is virtually no sector of our society that functions without computers on some level. None. This includes food: planting it, growing it, and most important of all: transporting it. There are any number of failures that could occur along the line to break the distribution chain. There are even failures that could make planting more than a little challenge. Not necessarily for backyard gardeners growing heirloom plants organically (assuming water is easily available) but for the agribusiness that keeps our tables groaning? Lots of potential problems. If it does turn out as badly as some fear, it is not just a matter of "going manual" tra la, everything is ok. For certian types of businesses and government entities, they have been automated to some degree for 30 or 40 years. Going manual is so enormous a task as to prove nearly impossible. And that's where it gets ugly. But I'm not going to recite the possible scenarios here...they are available all over the web if you look. Just don't be smug and assume. By the way, to answer an earlier question: It is Citizen's Bank in New Mexico. Specifically, Farmington. (The bank that sent out the notices about cash withdrawals in December.) Stoid ------------------ ************* Too often, we lose sight of life's simple pleasures...Remember, when someone annoys you, it takes 42 muscles in your face to frown BUT it only takes 4 muscles to extend your arm and SMACK the person right upside the head. |
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#42
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