Well, with the Iraqi “transfer of power” scheduled in a bit less than two months, questions have been raised nationally and internationally about the ability of the United States to install, as it is said, a “stable, western-style liberal democracy” in the place of the theocratic and dictatorial governments being overthrown. It is my hypothesis that what is wrong in Afghanistan needs to be our guide for what not to do with Iraq. Our failure to address them in the recent past is the best indicator of our vulnerabilities. While I hate to use the lives of 10 million people as “training wheels” for millions of others, well, we have to prevent this from being as large a clusterfuck as it can be.
There are many basic fundamentals that a nation needs to run a successful democracy. Security, money, trade, elections, self-determination, recognition of authority, international recognition, and careful census of the population are some of the key factors. These are also the factors that have failed to be addressed in Afghanistan.
- Security
Outside of Kabul and other large cities, Afghanistan is almost entirely out of the control of the government and occupying military forces. An overwhelming 70% of the nation’s 10 million citizens live in rural areas - areas that are 75% controlled by warlords and factions. Over a third of the country is off limits to UN employees, including most of the south, where the Taliban has regrouped. The government has failed utterly to establish security in the country, and can not even reach a good number of its citizens. Of the 100,000 enemy combatants estimated, the UN has only officially accepted the conversion of 2,700. Evidence of the lack of control is the constantly rising opium market, which at one point was an international target. - Money
Afghanistan has been drained dry, and nothing more is pouring in. The Western governments and NGOs that are funding Afghanistan’s rebuilding are coming up short of the Afghan government’s estimates - only $16 billion of an estimated $24 billion needed in a 6 year period. Much of the funds are concentrated on humanitarian relief, rather than reconstruction. - Trade
The Afghan economy and industrial base has not been touched. As mentioned, the largely rural nation has seen a vast conversion to opium producing crops, leaving the country on shifty ground in terms of international trade. Importing nearly everything and not controlling most of the nation’s infrastructure, Afghanistan remains wholly dependent on Western governments. - Census and Registration
The voter registration was a much discussed part of Afghan rebuilding, until interest waned. Roughly 10% of the Afghan citizens are registered - almost exclusively in urban areas, and almost exclusively male. Only 2% of the female population was registered to vote until very recently. The populations in the south and the ethnic Pushtans are the most lacking groups - in a country that has as many ethnic tensions as Afghanistan, this is absolutely unacceptable. - Elections
Put simply, the elections were delayed. Due to be held in June 2004, the lawlessness and unfitness of the Afghan government to hold elections has caused numerous delays in the process. Given the sad state of progress, it is difficult to estimate when elections will be held. - Self Determination
Due to a lack of funds, complete lack of security, including the facing of overwhelming numbers of warlords and private armies, and the inability to hold elections, Afghanistan lacks self determination. Reliant almost entirely on funding from foreign powers and in the international spotlight, the country has done very little of anything, and has been guided by the hand by Western powers. The people of Afghanistan have the same or less representation as they did under the Taliban. - Recognition of Authority
No country lasts long if the people within it do not recognize its authority. This is the case in Afghanistan. With such large parts of the country in control of private armies, the central government can be considered one ruler among many. If not for the presence of foreign military powers, the central government very likely would not exist, and the region would be in civil war. Over 200 government officials were murdered in around Kabul in August of 2003 alone. - International Recognition
Seen in the Muslim world largely as a tool of Western invaders, the Afghan government does not have much status. Pakistan is anxious over the warlords and terrorists along its border with Afghanistan, and engages in regular skirmishes. The other surrounding nations recognize only the authority of the Western militaries.
For these and other reasons, the American operation in Afghanistan has been a horrible adventure in mismanagement and inept government. One could easily question whether the country was ever able socially to support a democracy, much less an underpowered one installed by a hostile government. Without the international spotlight being given to the invasion of Iraq, perhaps the terrible failure of the Afghan government would be more visible to the media, especially that of America, which seems to have largely forgotten about Afghanistan and moved on.
However, I my hypothesis is that this misadventure is a predictor of what may happen in Iraq. While not as largely rural and better developed, Iraq has the makings of being divided by factional warlords, and unprepared economy, lack of investment, and a too-decentralized government that lacks the authority to back up its word. Already, we see parts of the country under questionable control by the American military, which has a much stronger presence than it did in Afghanistan. Further, the economic situation in Iraq is much more complex, given the industrial and petrolium interests.
With less than two months until the alleged transfer of power to Iraqi self-government, the United States has failed utterly to outline in detail a form of government and constitution for the Iraqi people, and more importantly, neither has it consulted with the Iraqis themselves on what they want in their government. This has all the markings for a collosal failure, which is indicated also by laws America introduced that stand in direct violation of Iraqi and Muslim culture. The government will be seen as a tool of America, and will, as in Afghanistan, fail to establish its authority and control over much of the country, and thus fail to be a representative government of the Iraqi people.
Unless we change a lot. Now.
