As I understand it, a significant basis of installing democracy in Iraq is the theory that, should Iraq take to democracy like a fish to water and come along swimmingly, that other nations in the Middle East would nod sagely in approval and erupt into an unanimous and peaceful conversion to the flowers and honey world of democracy. Pardon me if I don’t sound overly convinced of this happening.
This makes sense, for a country (or more specifically, a political sect) that sacrificed millions of lives on a similar theory (on a dissimilar situation) not so long ago.
My question here is twofold (or two questions onefold. Or something.)
One, what basis does this theory have, specifically in the Middle East? This is a region that already has a reasonably successful democracy, a theocracy, a monarchy, several dictatorships, and all number of political ideologies. The theories have been that either democracy will spread, as in Turkey, or that Muslims will unite to install theocracies. However, in most cases, the surrounding nations have proved to be rather well insulated to neighboring regimes.
Two, Blowback. With an American-installed regime handicapping Iraq in regional diplomacy already, what prevents a blowback against democracy? Specifically, take the recent unrest in Iran. Given the threat of rising unrest (say, if the domino effect works), what prevents the established neighbors from cracking down on local movements? Examples of this are Iran, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia, all three of which forcefully put down various movements.
From what I know, I simply can’t see a spread of democratic revolution - or, at least, not successful democratic revolution. In fact, I can see an American-installed democracy in a place where it sets back reformist movement in the region. The situation in the region is quite different than that in southeast Asia where this theory was fought for extensively earlier, in that we have well-established governments in place, and industrial nations, as opposed to rather chaotic and unorganized post-colonial countries with an open future and rural basis. I just don’t see how this theory can play out - it is like suggesting that a conservative branch taking power in America will cause the governments of Canada, Mexico and Cuba to suddenly conform.