Is American liberalism "dead as a governing philosophy"?

I just read a fascinating new book, The Right Nation: Conservative Power in America, by John Micklethwait and Adrian Wooldridge (New York: The Penguin Press, 2004). This book provides the most comprehensive and impartial account I have yet read of the American conservative movement, and its gradual rise to power over the past four decades. The authors are British, and have the advantage of looking at the whole thing with an outsider’s detachment. Their thesis is that the late conservative ascendancy results partly from America’s uniquely conservative political culture, and partly from a process of conservative organizing, and alliances and synergies between different conservative factions (economic libertarians, traditionalists, religious conservatives, big-business interests, and foreign-policy neoconservatives), which has been going on steadily since Barry Goldwater’s 1964 presidential campaign.

Yet they go further. Acknowledging that the American people are still sharply polarized between the Democratic and Republican parties, and that liberals still have a lot of fight left in them, nevertheless, in the authors’ view, American liberals are doomed henceforth to be fighting a long rearguard action, because their basic philosophy is bankrupt except insofar as it defines itself merely as “not-conservative.” From Chapter 15, “The Melancholy Long Withdrawing Roar of Liberalism”:

Are they right? Does American liberalism have any positive solutions to social problems to offer any more, or can Democrats only ask us to vote for them in order to keep the Republicans out of office? (Which would be quite enough for me . . .)

(To put this in perspective, you might want to check out another GD thread I’ve got going right now: “What is the difference between a liberal and a leftist?” – http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=262432 – where we’ve been discussing the question of just what is a liberal, anyway.)

Well, there are a few aspects to this, in my mind.

American conservatives, over time, have changed considerably. They have agreed not to threaten most of the New Deal sacred cows. Social Security is a completely unsound program, and the most any Republican politician will say about the system is that they want to restructure it to make it better. This isn’t the language of someone hostile to the program, even if you disagree with their aim.

This gave the Republican Party some credibility, when they got elected, to be able to run those social programs and not totally dismantle the social safety net.

While this was happening, though, the liberal wing of the Democratic Party was hemmoraging responsibility. On two big issues, domestic law and order and international security, this wing of the party lost credibility with voters by appearing far too soft, both against criminals and against international Communism and other foreign threats.

Liberal Democrats like Roosevelt, Truman, and Johnson had credibility on both issues. But liberal Democrats like McGovern, Kennedy, Mondale and Dukakis did not. The last truly liberal Democrat to hold the Presidency was Jimmy Carter, and his administration was a miserable failure by this measure. Bill Clinton’s presidency was far more successful, but it’s because he was a more moderate Democrat who coopted many Republican positions.

For liberals to win again, and do so past a protest vote against George Bush, they’ll have to regain credibility on those issues of basic security. The trouble is, they aren’t even making an effort to do so, preferring instead to concentrate on issues of justice and equality that fall more within their comfort zone.

Therefore, conservatives will keep winning, since they’re more in sync not only with the country’s views, but also with the country’s needs.

I think the last major battle is for Socialized Medicine. After you have that, there isn’t a lot left to fight for. Day care, maybe. Shorter work weeks. Not exactly giant issues.

I think they are wrong. American politics rides a pendulum. Currently the pendulum is to the right, but you can already detect that its either reached its zenith and started back down, or will shortly. American liberalism is still a viable option and it will rise again when the pendulum starts its leftward swing, as it inevitably will. Remember this is AMERICAN Liberalism though…which would be considered moderate or even to the right by European standards. Your authors were Europeans, with a European outlook on politics…so you have to take what they say in that context.

Personally I think that the pendulum loses just a bit of momentum each swing, moving it closer and closer to the center…the AMERICAN center. Eventually its motions will mostly revolve around the center with only small movements to the left or the right. In fact, we are seeing that already. Even then though, American style Liberalism AND Conservatism will still be viable political forces IMO.

-XT

What do you base this on?

I wonder about the authors of the book. Do they understand our federal government? Do they realize it is nearly incapable of solving any complex domestic problem? I think they have a point but doubt they grasp it fully. Brits, living under rational government, are likely to have trouble understanding how the central government here works ( or doesn’t ). But I could be wrong. Please let me know if I am.

Our government can’t do much of anything here at home without a big kick in the ass. Right now the reenergized conservative movement is swaying it but what have they accomplished? Have they solved anything? No and they are not likely to because our government is so fucked up that it needs a Great Depression to galvanize it to action. The Bushistas were able to milk 9/11 for awhile but the Homeland Securty Department is just shuffling the boxes around and even the Patriot Act is only temporary. Eventually even the responses to major events become overwhelmed by inertia.

Foreign affairs are the exception because the President can often act unilaterally and because of the tradition that partisanship ends at the border. That tradition has taken a beating though ever since the 1980 election. Perhaps if things keep limping along as they are they will become just as entangled as domestic politics.

Mostly my own observations through the years, though I read a book years ago (who’s name now escapes me…something like The American Pendulum) that went into some detail about how American politics seems to swing back and forth, but that the center was where political power in the US really resides…its sort of the balance point in American politics. Of course I also took poli-sci in college too, but that doesn’t really help any IMO.

-XT

I first heard about the pendulum theory in about 1967. Liberals policies were thriving then, despite the Presidential election loss in 1968. My boss told me that the pendulum would swing back in favor of the Conservatives. I couldn’t even imagine it! But it certainly happened.

When Nixon was forced to resign in 1974, some thought that the Republican party itself was dead.

You just never know.

Don’t forget that the pendulum continues to swing back and forth.

BTW, I don’t think the information provided about Tennessee governor Phil Bredesen is accurate. It doesn’t even make sense.

Perhaps not, but that’s a key difference between conservatism and liberalism: Conservatism must satisfy a much less demanding “victory scenario.” Liberals are fully successful only if they solve social problems, through government action or otherwise. Conservatives can claim success in their own terms just by, for better or worse, blocking effective government action.

At least, that’s an assumption Mickelthwait and Wooldridge are making. For my part, I think American liberalism incorporates more than just the idea of using vigorous government action to solve social problems. Abortion rights, for instance, are considered a liberal issue, and that idea depends just on government staying out of what liberals consider a woman’s personal business. Same with civil-liberties issues generally (as distinct from civil-rights issues, which might require government intervention for enforcement). Gay marriage is a liberal issue and that requires no new government action, only a change in the rules government already uses. Many liberals oppose war and the military-industrial complex – things which just tend to make the state bigger and badder and more expensive. And so on.

The thing about all of this is neither conservatism or liberalism are purely demonstrated in either the Republican or Democratic party. Indeed, given the definition I usually associate with modern day liberalism (general hopefulness for the vague “improvement” of the country and even humankind through government intervention and sponsorship), it would seem to me that the current administration is pretty damn liberal in several areas. It’s like watching two brands of liberals argue about the definition of “improvement”… seriously depressing. Anti-abortionists are not arguing on the basis of no government intervention in unnecessary areas (a fairly conservative point), but rather on the moral improvement of the USA. Sounds fairly liberal to me. The Republican party is in ascendence because they pulled the Clinton trick in reverse. Instead of holding firm onto all their planks, they coopted certain liberal ideals and concepts sufficiently to give the Democrats no real talking points. I would argue that, while the Democratic party is really hurting at the moment, liberalism still remains in power.

Of course all this is on one cup of coffee, so I fully expect to get shredded here.

Priam, I think the definition of “liberalism” you are using here would make “conservatism,” by implication/elimination, indistinguishable from “libertarianism.” And it ain’t. Libertarianism, government-minimalism, leave-it-all-aloneism, Goldwaterism, whatever you call it, is only one of several currents in modern American conservatism. There’s also religious-social conservatism, which can involve heavy state intervention in personal life; and aggressive foreign-policy neoconservatism, which is really expensive and leads to a national security state and a huge military-industrial complex; and big-business conservatism, which is based on the idea, not that the government should stay out of the market, but that government should do all it can to help established business interests fare even better – even if that means awarding porkbarrel sweetheart contracts, and spending huge amounts of money to bail out foundering corporations, and vigorously enforcing government regulations against labor unions while gutting regulations on businesses. Now, if you’re operating on a strict conceptual definition of conservatism that is identical with libertarianism, I guess you could make a case for that – but bear in mind that another name for libertarianism is “classical liberalism.”

Not to interject a less high-minded element into the discussion, but I would point out also that people (in general) tend to become more conservative as they grow older, and while some of us were conservative even when we were young, and others will be liberal even when old, generally speaking people tend to become more conservative with age. The baby boom generation is heading into advanced middle-age and old-age and becoming more conservative all the time. I believe this will cause an even greater upswing in conservative politics’ success as time goes by for the next few decades.

Well that’s kinda my point BrainGlutton.

To me, political idealogies should have some kind of conceptual differences between them. Classical liberalism (which these days is classified as a rightwing concept) versus modern liberalism have several points of basic structural conflicts that stand them apart from one another. They are truly different creatures.

Modern day Democrats and modern day Republicans have no idealogical integrity on either side of the spectrum. Instead they’re both weird Frankenstein monsters lurching around with patches of libertarianism and liberalism. Their scuffles aren’t about ideals, but about application. It’s a boring semantics game in which neither side can truly make an overarching policy point against the other that can’t be turned around on them. “They want to tell you how to run your life… but oh wait! so do we!” I think this issue is part of what has caused so many past elections to bog down in general malaise.

It is also why the OP quote’s point is impossible to demonstrate in the USA’s current political scene.

To put the above in perspective, here’s another quote from Micklethwait and Wooldridge’s book, arguing that modern American conservatism is fundamentally different from the older Burkean Tory conservatism:

This thread finally gives me a chance to put forth a few things that I have been thinking all in one thread.

First of all, I think the pedulum theory does have some validity, especially in general society. The 40’s and 50’s were conservative, 60’s and 70’s were liberal, the 80’s and 90’s more convervative.

Politically, the change has been slower. As stated before, Carter was the last “liberal” president. I believe that he was elected in the first place out of post-Watergate bitterness following Ford’s pardon of Nixon. Even then, his victory was narrow. I happen to believe that most liberal fiscal policy is flawed, and feel like the economy under Carter bears me out. Reagan followed, and brought with him a seismic shift to the right. Bush I rode the coattails. Clinton was elected because he was charming and talked like a moderate. If Clinton had talked like Mondale or Dukakis he would have been laughed out of the arena.

Switching gears somewhat, I also think 9/11 dealt a serious blow to liberalism. It suddenly made anti-war, anti-CIA, etc. sentiment seem naive. The result was a political conservatives dream. A stronger military, a stronger CIA and real action being taken against those who would see us dead.

Given all these factors, I do think that true liberalism is dead. Republican majorities will continue indefinitely in both houses of congress and any Democratic candidate for president will have to talk like a moderate to get elected. I think the Kerry candidacy will be an interesting test of my theory. If he brave enough to run as an unapologetic liberal and wins, then I guess I’m wrong. If Bush wins, as I expect him to, then I think the liberal trip to political irrelevancy will continue unabated.

To really understand what “liberalism” is, I guess we have to try to understand what “conservatism” is – which is why I posted the above quote from Mickelthwait and Wooldridge’s book. That passage is a pretty good summation of the main stream of current Republican thought, and the Bush Administration, which is dominated at the moment by big-business conservatism and foreign-policy neoconservatism. But it leaves out, or glosses over, several other forms of modern conservatism:

  1. Radical libertarianism: Libertarians are “distrustful of the state,” but their “patriotism” is limited by their distrust of the state in all its aspects, including the defense establishment and the military-industrial complex. I don’t think the Libertarian Party (http://www.lp.org/[/ur]) supports America’s current interventions in the Middle East. This way of thinking is arguable “conservative” but definitely marginal with respect to the modern conservative movement. Libertarians would agree with Republicans at leat with respect to favoring free trade, open borders, and globalization.

  2. Religious-social conservatism: Best represented, at the moment, by the Constitution Party (http://www.constitution-party.net/) (formerly the U.S. Taxpayers Party), and the Christian Coalition. The Religious Right is “distrustful of the state” when it does not serve their moral and social agenda, but they would welcome state action to, say, ban abortion, or re-criminalize sodomy. They also generally favor military intervention in the Middle East because they regard it as something like a crusade. And the more extreme members of this movement actually believe we are living in the End Times, and thus America must defend Israel, so Israel can play its appointed role in the working out of Biblical prophecy. (I’m not making this up, I can provide cites if you want.) This group does have a lot of influence in the Republican Party, but not as much as they think they deserve – not one Republican president has actually pushed hard to ban abortion, ban teaching of evolution, or revive school prayer. They also differ from the Republican core in that most of their supporters are middle-class or working-class Christians who do not necessarily agree that whatever is good for the corporations is good for the country.

  3. Paleoconservatism, or nativist-isolationist-populist conservatism: This kind of “conservatism” is definitely marginal from mainstream Republican conservatism, and openly and fiercely hostile to it. Best represented, at the moment, by Pat Buchanan and his new America First Party (http://www.americafirstparty.org/); and his educational organization, The American Cause (The American Cause: About The Cause); and his new weekly magazine, The American Conservative (http://www.amconmag.com/) – which you’ll now find on the stands in every Borders and every Barnes & Noble. These populists are anti-corporate and anti-elitist – they’re not socialists by any means, but they are as hostile to Wall Street as they are to Washington. They are opposed to “free trade,” NAFTA and the WTO, for economic reasons – globalization means working-class Americans’ jobs getting outsourced abroad. They even want the U.S. to pull out of the United Nations. They agree with the Religious Right on many points, but definitely not on militiary policy. The paleoconservatives are not exactly pacifists but they are definitely isolationists. Buchanan has even written a book, A Republic, Not an Empire, arguing that the U.S. should have stayed out of the European theater in WWII and let Hitler do his thing. This does not endear him to Jews; neither does his hostility to our policy of backing up Israel. Another difference is that the Religious Right’s core is essentially Southern Evangelical Protestant, while Buchanan’s movement has more appeal to working-class Roman Catholics like himself. The paleocons are also hostile to immigration – ostensibly for economic and cultural reasons, but there do appear to be some racist elements in their thinking. In fact, there is some overlap between this kind of right-populism and Aryan-Nation-style white-supremacist racism; but the defining characteristics of the movements are rather different, and Buchanan’s movement probably would be open to blacks (so long as they were born in this country) and to Jews (so long as they are not Zionists).

I have gone on at some length about these marginal-conservative groupings for two reasons: They help us to understand “conservatism,” and to understand it is not a monolithic thing. And some of them offer the possiblity of occasional, issue-specific, strategic alliances with liberals and leftists! Stange bedfellows, you know?

In fact, the June 21, 2004 issue of The American Conservative carries an interview of Ralph Nader by Pat Buchanan. Now, when you put America’s leading left-progressive maverick in the same room with America’s leading right-wing nativist-isolationist-populist, you might expect to see blood on the floor. But in fact the two of them seem to have hit it off – more or less – and the interview was published to float the idea that real conservatives might want to consider voting for Nader instead of Bush this year. That would be a switch! Nader siphoning off votes from the Republican!

Here’s a link to the interview:

http://www.amconmag.com/2004_06_21/cover.html

We learn that RN and PB feel much the same way about NAFTA, WTO, the Iraq War, American support for Israel, the big bad establishments in Washington and on Wall Street, and several other things.

There is, of course, one more marginal stream of American conservatism: Outright white-supremacist racism – the Klan, the American Nazis, the Aryan Nation, the militias, etc. But I don’t think this movement, as such, is politically significant enough any more to merit much discussion. Those white Southerners who in an earlier generation might have supported the Klan are in this day and age more likely to support the Constitution Party or the America First Party (or even the Republican Party), parties which might be indifferent to racial injustice, but whose core values and goals have nothing to do with reviving segregation.

And there is one more American political tradition that merits discussion here, although whether it can even be classified as “conservative” is debatable: The tradition that used to be called “progressivism.” (I guess it needs a new name now, because the label “progressive” has been appropriated by left-liberals and nobody seems to dispute their claim to it. But for purposes of this post I will use the term “progressive” in its original sense.) This the tradition of Teddy Roosevelt’s Bull Moose Party and the old Progressive Party and “Fighting Bob” LaFollette of Wisconsin. It was originally an upper-class and middle-class movement for “good government,” defined in professionalized, technocratic terms that purported to transcend ideology and class interests – a Progressive motto was, “There is no Democratic or Republican way to pave a street.” Nonpartisan municipal elections and the city-manager form of government are Progressive legacies. One thing Progressives have in common with mainstream conservatives is a concern with fiscal responsibility and a fear of budget deficits; Progressives aren’t hostile to vigorous government but they want it to be clean, honest, transparent, efficient, and not profligate. The best representative of the Progressive tradition in American politics today is probably John Anderson, who mounted an independent presidential campaign in 1980 and was one of the founding leaders of the Reform Party.

One reason the Reform Party did not last, I think (apart from Ross Perot’s control-freak megalomania and his refusal to let the party evolve into anything more than a vehicle for his candidacies), is that its ideology always was incoherent – because the party was essentially a coalition of Progressives with Buchanan-style paleoconservative Populists, and there was only so long they could go on working together. When it broke up, the Populist wing went off with Buchanan to form the America First Party, and the Progressive wing, including John Anderson, formed Jesse Ventura’s Independence Party (http://www.mnip.org/[/ur]) (which has become prominent in Minnesota politics but has had little organizing success in other states).

Meanwhile, the remnant of the original Reform Party organization (http://www.reformparty.org/cgi-bin/hcgmain.cgi) is now running Ralph Nader, of all people, for president! :stuck_out_tongue: Strange bedfellows, you know?

(sorry, flubbed some coding there, please disregard previous post. gotta preview! corrected post:)

To really understand what “liberalism” is, I guess we have to try to understand what “conservatism” is – which is why I posted the above quote from Mickelthwait and Wooldridge’s book. That passage is a pretty good summation of the main stream of current Republican thought, and the Bush Administration, which is dominated at the moment by big-business conservatism and foreign-policy neoconservatism. But it leaves out, or glosses over, several other forms of modern conservatism:

  1. Radical libertarianism: Libertarians are “distrustful of the state,” but their “patriotism” is limited by their distrust of the state in all its aspects, including the defense establishment and the military-industrial complex. I don’t think the Libertarian Party (http://www.lp.org/) supports America’s current interventions in the Middle East. This way of thinking is arguable “conservative” but definitely marginal with respect to the modern conservative movement. Libertarians would agree with Republicans at leat with respect to favoring free trade, open borders, and globalization.

  2. Religious-social conservatism: Best represented, at the moment, by the Constitution Party (http://www.constitution-party.net/) (formerly the U.S. Taxpayers Party), and the Christian Coalition. The Religious Right is “distrustful of the state” when it does not serve their moral and social agenda, but they would welcome state action to, say, ban abortion, or re-criminalize sodomy. They also generally favor military intervention in the Middle East because they regard it as something like a crusade. And the more extreme members of this movement actually believe we are living in the End Times, and thus America must defend Israel, so Israel can play its appointed role in the working out of Biblical prophecy. (I’m not making this up, I can provide cites if you want.) This group does have a lot of influence in the Republican Party, but not as much as they think they deserve – not one Republican president has actually pushed hard to ban abortion, ban teaching of evolution, or revive school prayer. They also differ from the Republican core in that most of their supporters are middle-class or working-class Christians who do not necessarily agree that whatever is good for the corporations is good for the country.

  3. Paleoconservatism, or nativist-isolationist-populist conservatism: This kind of “conservatism” is definitely marginal from mainstream Republican conservatism, and openly and fiercely hostile to it. Best represented, at the moment, by Pat Buchanan and his new America First Party (http://www.americafirstparty.org/); and his educational organization, The American Cause (The American Cause: About The Cause); and his new weekly magazine, The American Conservative (http://www.amconmag.com/) – which you’ll now find on the stands in every Borders and every Barnes & Noble. These populists are anti-corporate and anti-elitist – they’re not socialists by any means, but they are as hostile to Wall Street as they are to Washington. They are opposed to “free trade,” NAFTA and the WTO, for economic reasons – globalization means working-class Americans’ jobs getting outsourced abroad. They even want the U.S. to pull out of the United Nations. They agree with the Religious Right on many points, but definitely not on militiary policy. The paleoconservatives are not exactly pacifists but they are definitely isolationists. Buchanan has even written a book, A Republic, Not an Empire, arguing that the U.S. should have stayed out of the European theater in WWII and let Hitler do his thing. This does not endear him to Jews; neither does his hostility to our policy of backing up Israel. Another difference is that the Religious Right’s core is essentially Southern Evangelical Protestant, while Buchanan’s movement has more appeal to working-class Roman Catholics like himself. The paleocons are also hostile to immigration – ostensibly for economic and cultural reasons, but there do appear to be some racist elements in their thinking. In fact, there is some overlap between this kind of right-populism and Aryan-Nation-style white-supremacist racism; but the defining characteristics of the movements are rather different, and Buchanan’s movement probably would be open to blacks (so long as they were born in this country) and to Jews (so long as they are not Zionists).

I have gone on at some length about these marginal-conservative groupings for two reasons: They help us to understand “conservatism,” and to understand it is not a monolithic thing. And some of them offer the possiblity of occasional, issue-specific, strategic alliances with leftists! Stange bedfellows, you know?

In fact, the June 21, 2004 issue of The American Conservative carries an interview of Ralph Nader by Pat Buchanan. Now, when you put America’s leading left-progressive maverick in the same room with America’s leading right-wing nativist-isolationist-populist, you might expect to see blood on the floor. But in fact the two of them seem to have hit it off – more or less – and the interview was published to float the idea that real conservatives might want to consider voting for Nader instead of Bush this year. That would be a switch! Nader siphoning off votes from the Republican!

Here’s a link to the interview:

http://www.amconmag.com/2004_06_21/cover.html

We learn that RN and PB feel much the same way about NAFTA, WTO, the Iraq War, American support for Israel, the big bad establishments in Washington and on Wall Street, and several other things.

There is, of course, one more marginal stream of American conservatism: Outright white-supremacist racism – the Klan, the American Nazis, the Aryan Nation, the militias, etc. But I don’t think this movement, as such, is politically significant enough any more to merit much discussion. Those white Southerners who in an earlier generation might have supported the Klan are in this day and age more likely to support the Constitution Party or the America First Party (or even the Republican Party), parties which might be indifferent to racial injustice, but whose core values and goals have nothing to do with reviving segregation.

And there is one more American political tradition that merits discussion here, although whether it can even be classified as “conservative” is debatable: The tradition that used to be called “progressivism.” (I guess it needs a new name now, because the label “progressive” has been appropriated by left-liberals and nobody seems to dispute their claim to it. But for purposes of this post I will use the term “progressive” in its original sense.) This the tradition of Teddy Roosevelt’s Bull Moose Party and the old Progressive Party and “Fighting Bob” LaFollette of Wisconsin. It was originally an upper-class and middle-class movement for “good government,” defined in professionalized, technocratic terms that purported to transcend ideology and class interests – a Progressive motto was, “There is no Democratic or Republican way to pave a street.” Nonpartisan municipal elections and the city-manager form of government are Progressive legacies. One thing Progressives have in common with mainstream conservatives is a concern with fiscal responsibility and a fear of budget deficits; Progressives aren’t hostile to vigorous government but they want it to be clean, honest, transparent, efficient, and no profligate. The best representative of the Progressive tradition in American politics is probably John Anderson, who mounted an independent presidential campaign in 1980 and was one of the founding leaders of the Reform Party.

One reason the Reform Party did not last, I think (apart from Ross Perot’s control-freak megalomania and his refusal to let the party evolve into anything more than a vehicle for his candidacies), is that its ideology always was incoherent – because the party was essentially a coalition of Progressives with Buchanan-style paleoconservative Populists, and there was only so long they could go on working together. When it broke up, the Populist wing went off with Buchanan to form the America First Party, and the Progressive wing, including John Anderson, formed Jesse Ventura’s Independence Party (http://www.mnip.org/) (which has become prominent in Minnesota politics but has had little organizing success in other states).

Meanwhile, the remnant of the original Reform Party organization (http://www.reformparty.org/cgi-bin/hcgmain.cgi) is now running Ralph Nader, of all people, for president! :stuck_out_tongue: Strange bedfellows, you know?

Some interesting points being made, on all sides.

I only have time to respond to one.

I think this is true, but will affect the American conservative movement by making it more like it is now.

While I agree that the tendency towards conservatism with increased age (and therefore increased wisdom :wink: ), one of the remaining issues for liberals in America, as Sam Stone points out, is socialized medicine. Old people are the major consumers of health care. Therefore, as the population ages, to counter-act the swing towards conservatism will be the desire to keep and expand government funding for health care. Therefore you get a “compassionate conservative” administration who gets a major increase in Medicare funding for prescription drugs.

Social Security is the other factor. A government program, funded by a highly regressive tax structure, headed for bankruptcy, which is nonetheless highly popular. Another hard push towards maintaining a big government program, even with an aging, increasingly conservative population.

As for the rest of the thread, some good stuff from BrainGlutton and (as usual) Mr.Moto. I want to come back to this thread (after I waste some time actually working) and think it thru.

Regards,
Shodan

You have to be kidding. The whole point of the Republican strategy was to pull white racists in the South away from the Democrats and into the Republican big tent. it worked beautifully, and today racists in the South have made it a bulwark of Republican strength. The extreme racists may be involved with the Klan and the Aryan Nation, but the garden variety racists who vastly outnumber them are almost all Republicans. Republicans are the party of racism.

Not true, Evil Captor. The Republican party may be the party of cultural conservatives, sure. But the hard core racists held onto the Democrat label for a long time.

The South shifted Republican first in border areas, where there was far less racism. And, with the shift to Republicanism, there was less racism yet.

States like Alabama and Mississippi, with far more entrenched racist attitudes, turned out to have a far more entrenched racist Democratic establishment. These states didn’t shift Republican until far later, and became less racist when they did so.

So your little theory doesn’t reflect observable data.