Podcasting is here to stay or an interim use of technology

Podcasting is exploding in popularity. People are using iPodder to download MP3 radio shows from XML feeds, then playing them later. I collect a few shows overnight, but I’ve only been listening for a few days. The types of shows are as diverse as you can get - technology, politics, health, entertainment, etc.

Some are suggesting that podcasting is just an interim use of technology and will fade away to portable, streaming-on-demand.

  1. Do you agree with this notion? If yes, then portable MP3 players will have to become wireless internet devices… then they will have to offer e-mail…then web browsing. I can see some iPod competitors offering wireless internet access for streaming media, e-mail and maybe IM, but I don’t know if such an inelegant package would find its way into a future generation iPod.

Related question:
Do you believe that we will see free, on-demand commerical television from the Internet? If an average joe can create a regular podcast and have previous shows in MP3 format archived, why can’t the major television networks do the same thing? TiVos are cool, but like VCRs, you have to set them to record the show. If you miss the show, too bad, you lost out. With free-on-demand television, you can go back days or weeks or months to watch missed episodes. If this actually happened, television viewship would actually increase…although it would technically be from the Internet. Ditto for certain radio shows.

I believe that the major TV networks will have to offer Internet archived shows. How they will do this and still sell some shows as DVD packages remains to be seen, though. If there’s no on-demand TV, then the networks will continue to see their audiences fragment and shrink even further.

I’ll wager that podcasting is here to stay, for the following reasons:

  1. It’s easy to use.
  2. It’s free.
  3. It’s convenient.
  4. It’s dirt-cheap easy for anyone to produce their own content.
  5. There is no current problem with podcasting that will be fixed by streaming, portable audio on-demand – it’s a solution for a nonexistent issue.

In short, why shouldn’t podcasting stick around? What compelling reason is there for it to fade away?