The nations of South America – all of them, with the sole exception of French Guiana (which is a department of France and therefore part of the EU) – are in the process of forming a South American Community of Nations, merging Mercosur and the Andean Community: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_American_Community_of_Nations They’re modeling the Community on the European Union, and they’re hoping for a full EU-type system by 2019, including a common parliament, currency and passport. (All of which features are distinctly absent from NAFTA and DR-CAFTA.) This might be wildly optimistic, of course. No country was admitted into the EU until it had achieved a certain level of internal political stability, with no serious prospect of regime change on the horizon – and many South American nations clearly have not reached that point; viz. recent events in Bolivia. But there’s no doubt they’re planning to try to put together a real international economic-political union in S.A.
So, despite the hopes of U.S. neoliberals and neoconservatives alike that the entire Western Hemisphere might join in a NAFTA-style Free Trade Area of the Americas (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FTAA), it appears what we’re seeing now is the emergence of two separate trading blocs in the Western Hemisphere:
-
The northern sphere: NAFTA nations (Canada, U.S., Mexico) and the DR-CAFTA nations (the U.S., the Dominican Republic, and most of Central America – http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DR-CAFTA). All dominated by the United States economically and, to some extent, politically.
-
The southern sphere, the SACN – which is distinctly independent of and, potentially, at loggerheads with the U.S.
There’s also:
- CARICOM – the Caribbean Community and Economic Market (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Caricom) – another EU-inspired federation, of most of the island nations of the Caribbean, with the notable exceptions of Cuba and the Dominican Republic. It remains to be seen whether CARICOM would fall within the U.S. or SACN orbit in any trade competition or political conflict.
What does this portend for the future? What will be the relationship between the two major trading blocs in the Western Hemisphere? What will the SACN be like? Judging by recent elections in various countries, left-wing politics appear to be on the ascendant in South America. How will that influence the Community? Will the SACN ultimately have more leftist collective policies than the EU? And how would the U.S. react to that?
Last I was aware, most South American governments weren’t at the forefront of enlightened nations. So unless that has changed, yikes. Could definitely end up as a large South American war.
But as to the whole “getting together” thing sweeping the world. Dunno, it worked for the 13 colonies. But what will happen for everyone else…who knows. Hopefully good stuff.
Sounds good to me. In many ways it might actually be easier for South American nations than it was for Europe. For one thing, you’re only dealing with two major languages, and closely related ones at that.
Why not, I say?
As to how it will affect the trading relationships between the NAFTA/CAFTA bloc (geez, we so need better names) and South America, I don’t see that this would be a significant problem to North America. Trade with South America is not so significant to us that this portends any major catastrophe, and in any event, if a South American union were to lead to more stability and openness it seems to me it would facilitate fair and free trade. Just because South America would be dealing from a position of greater strength does not mean North America would be weaker.
In the long run, a more stable and wealthier South America would be to the beneft of all, would it not?
I welcome this as a positive development. For a long time I’ve maintained that, while the idea of a One World Government is much more than can be bitten off and chewed, for the various major regions to form unions and integrate at their own pace is a more workable scenario.
A war between South American states or factions? Or a war between South-America-as-a-whole and the U.S.?
Who can tell for sure. Neither the words or actions of Hugo Chavez are endearing himself to the US, or much of anybody except maybe Cuba. Chavez seems to be actively supporting Columbian rebels and actively antagonizing the US. I think he feels a degree of safety due to the fact that they are the number 4 supplier of oil to the US. Before too long the US will look to do something there, what it is, I don’t know, but it can’t go on unaddressed for too much longer.
Relevant Link.
I meant amongst themselves–though whether that would be states or factions, no idea. Of course I doubt the US wouldn’t involve itself given the proximity.
Assuming of course that war would ensue. At the moment, I would give war a say…30% chance, but that’s with a 45% chance of nothing ever getting far enough for that to even be an issue.
By “nothing . . . getting far enough,” do you mean that the plan for South American union won’t go through? The states won’t be able to agree on the terms?