The recent polls about the Canadian federal election all indicate that Stephen Harper’s Conservatives hold an advance of many points on Paul Martin’s Liberals. Therefore, it is starting to become more and more certain that they will at least form a minority government. There are a few questions I have been asking myself regarding an eventual Harper government, and three of them are about the role the Senate will play in the next few months and years. I’m looking for your opinion on them.
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I have heard a lot about Pierre Claude Nolin, a Conservative Senator from Québec who is widely known as one of the moderate voices from their caucus. I’m wondering if there is a possibility that Nolin might actually be named to Harper’s cabinet, especially if the Conservatives, despite their popularity, are not able to elect many (ministerable) MPs from Québec. There would be good and bad points about such a nomination. On the plus side, it would send the message to Canada that the Conservatives are convinced of the Senate’s utility and want to improve it and make it an important player in Canadian political life. On the negative side, Harper has said that he would not have unelected ministers in his cabinet, and Nolin is, by virtue of his being a Senator, unelected. Do you think that Harper would consider such a move?
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Even if the Conservatives are able to get a majority or a strong minority in the House of Commons, the Senate still has a large Liberal majority, and will stay that way for some time. How will this affect the legislative process? I guess that most Senators will not want to infuriate the Conservatives further by blocking most of their legislation even though they are unelected and probably do not represent the will of the people, but I can see some cases where they could play an important role. For example, remember that Harper has promised a free vote in the Commons about same-sex marriage. Suppose for a moment that he will actually do that (I’m not convinced): the bill will have to pass both the Commons and the Senate. The Commons might vote to bring back the old definition of marriage, but the last time the Senate voted on the question, they voted in favour of the new definition, and they will almost certainly have to be also offered a free vote. What will happen if they defeat Harper’s proposal? Will Harper say that this shows without the shadow of a doubt that the Senate needs reforms? Will the population feel the same thing, or will they feel that this shows that the Senate is needed, being a protection against a government’s more misguided initiatives?
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Finally, what will happen when it comes to naming new Senators? Harper, being Prime Minister, will be able to name anyone he wants on the Senate, but the Conservatives, and before them the Alliance and Reform parties, have been pushing for an elected Senate. If Alberta holds other Senatorial elections, I presume that Harper would respect their results, but what happens if they don’t, or if vacancies from other provinces appear? Will he try to convince the provincial governments to hold Senatorial elections? Will he simply refuse to nominate Senators until there’s a Constitutional amendment changing the nature of the Senate (which I don’t expect to happen anytime soon)? Or will he just nominate old Party faithfuls like most people before him, even though he’s been speaking against the practice?
If someone has something to offer as an answer to my questions, it would be appreciated, because I don’t know enough about Harper or about how an eventual Conservative government would be to answer them myself.