Links to original columns:
http://www.straightdope.com/columns/060203.html
http://www.straightdope.com/columns/060303.html
As I read the various incredibly long threads on this question, I found myself wondering if there was a formulation that would “work” in the following ways:
- The phrasing is not ambiguous
- It’s deceptive
- There is a clear and demonstrable answer
- It illustrates something interesting about flaws in most folks’ intuition about airplanes, conveyor belts, physics, or all three.
To my mind, the question is designed to trap people who know (or think they know) how planes fly. The idea is to get such people to reason, “well, the plane is stationary relative to the air, and air has to flow across the wings to get lift, so it can’t take off.” Among newbies to the message board this is by far the most common “wrong” answer. And of course the trick answer is that the conveyor can’t keep the plane stationary (I’m ignoring BR#2, which is to my way of thinking an interesting side problem).
It’s very much like the Monty Hall question, which is clearly designed to trick people who know (or think they know) how to calculate probability. After Monty opens a door we’re left with two options, so our instinct is that each door has a 1/2 probability of being the winner. The prior knowledge that Monty always opens a door, can’t open the originally selected door, and can’t open the winning door shifts the probabilities in a way most people aren’t familiar with. That makes it an interesting problem that illustrates a subtlety of probability.
So can we formulate a version of the airplane problem that essentially limits us to BR#1 as the correct answer yet isn’t completely trivial? Here’s my stab at it:
"Imagine a light plane is sitting at one end of a long conveyor belt the length and width of a runway. The plane is pointed toward the other end. The plane has a top speed of around 120 knots and a takeoff speed of 75 knots. It’s a clear, calm day with no wind. The conveyor belt can spin in either direction and has a top speed (relative to the ground around it) of 300 knots. The conveyor is computer controlled, and is designed to spin as fast as necessary to keep the airplane stationary relative to the ground around the conveyor belt. So if the plane starts to move forward down the conveyor/runway, the conveyor will immediately spin in the opposite direction in order to keep the plane in place. The conveyor has very quick acceleration and can change speed effectively instantly.
Can the plane take off?"
This pretty clearly removes the possibility of the BR#2 interpretation, because the conveyor can’t go that fast. It also makes it clear that the conveyor is trying to keep the plane stationary. I still think it’s a fairly deceptive problem with an interesting answer.
What do other folks think? Is this an improvement on the original problem as given in Cecil’s column? Anyone have a better way?
Don