Well. I’ll begin by reviewing my draft.
I actually did come into the draft with a strategy. Keep in mind that I’m an AL-only guy, and have given approximately 2000% the attention to the AL this year, fantasy-wise, as I have the NL. I came in with a broad knowledge of the NL players and their capabilities, but I actually checked up on a few of my own players after the draft to see what kind of histories they had (not pleased with my first-round pick). I also hadn’t looked very deeply at positional depth, particularly in the OF, so some mid-draft developments caught me by surprise.
Anyway, my strategy was to get the best two pitchers I could with the first two picks, then ignore them until at least the teen rounds, unless I was presented with an insane pick. Other than that, I’d draft primarily for position. As I always do, I figured on trying to get in on the middle of the inevitable closer run and get one top guy, ignore OFs and SPs until late, and try to cover thin positions with solid players. I also decided to endeavor not to ignore speed, which I’ve done in pretty much every draft I’ve ever done in the last 6 years of playing fantasy baseball (this is significant later). As I mentioned about 5 minutes into the draft, though, I immediately changed this strategy (the first part, anyway).
In the first round, with the 14th pick, I knew Santana would be off the board long before my pick, and I hoped to get whichever 2 of Oswalt, Peavy, and Halladay that I could, to form the backbone of my rotation and allow me to ignore SP for at least 10 rounds. However, when my turn arrived and all three of them were still available, this gave me the impression that good SPs would be even more underrepresented in the draft than I had already anticipated, and immediately changed my mind.
I took Jason Bay with the first pick, not knowing much about him, but figuring that CFs would be tough to find (since we have OF positional requirements), since of course there are very, very few good ones in the AL. This did not turn out to be the case; as was remarked by somebody (I forgot who, sorry) later on, it was actually RFs that got thin the quickest. This made me somewhat regret the pick, but since Bay’s typically rated by “experts” somewhere between 11th and 16th or so overall, I can’t really hate it. He put up good numbers last year, and his supporting cast has probably improved marginally, but he really has no consistent history of success (this knowledge having been obtained post-draft, naturally). Oh well.
Then with my second-round pick, 23rd overall, with Oswalt and Halladay being snatched up 3 picks and 1 pick before mine respectively, I suddenly re-changed direction and took Jake Peavy. I like Peavy. So at that point I decided to chuck my specific draft goals, while sticking to the broad precepts, and just see what happened. Either way, there were 26 picks until my next one, so BFD anyway, right.
Unfortunately, at this point I don’t remember exactly what was going through my mind when I made my 3rd round pick (50th overall), but it may have been my worst. It’s definitely my least favorite. I was looking at Ryan Howard, but feeling he was still a little early there, and that he wasn’t decisively better than the other 1B remaining, didn’t want to take a SP, it was too early for closers, and didn’t see anyone really compelling, so I wasn’t really sure what I’d do. I want to make one thing very clear here, and that is that I despise Scott Podsednik and all that he represents. I hate the way he’s an “Ozzieball” player, I hate that he leads off despite his ho-hum OBP because he’s your “prototypical leadoff guy” in that he’s a slap hitter and he’s fast, I hate that he hit that homer in the playoffs last year, I hate that people think he’s this great player even though his VORP is abysmal, his RC figures blow, and his CS subtracts more value than his SBs add, and more than anything I hate that he’s this elite fantasy player despite all that, despite being a barely above-average offensive player in real baseball, just because he might steal 60 bases. Anyway, I picked Scott Podsednik.
Naturally, Ryan Howard went with the next pick.
My next pick (4th round, 59th overall) came right back to me with the aforementioned run on closers almost under a full head of steam – After Rivera was taken in Round 2, Round 4 began with Buehrle, then Lidge and K-Rod (hate that nickname), then Cantu, then me. I had my eye on Joe Nathan, he’s always been my favorite closer, partially because I followed him closely when he was rehabbing with the Giants (one of my local teams), partially because he’s led me to success for 2 years in Melting Pot, and partially just because I see having him on my fantasy team as sticking it to Brian Sabean, who I’ve said from Day 1 was an idiot to trade him (with Liriano and Bonser!!) for Pierzynski. But I had doubts about jumping on a closer at that point, partly because I don’t like getting in on the run that early, partly because despite my sentimentality I wasn’t convinced he was all that much better than the next 5 closers, and partly because I was tickled to draft another NL guy I know nothing about, Felipe Lopez (the main thing I know about this guy is that he went for damn near $30 in the auction I did in early March, so he must be good, right?). So I did that.
In case you’ve never been in a fantasy draft before, I have to mention that Joe Nathan was the very next pick. Including Nathan, 6 closers were drafted with the remaining 13 picks in Round 4.
Then I started having serious connectivity problems. The draft interface would pause for 30 seconds or more, then I’d get a text dump of all the picks to that point into my chat window and like 3 picks would have gone by since I was last live. I started to get scared that I’d miss a pick, which would suck since I had at least a dozen guys in my queue, in pretty much positional order, just guys to keep an eye on. I was chatting with brianjedi on another machine, and when I asked him frantically if it was my turn and he said “yep”, I figured I was screwed. But I figured at worst I’d get a homer pick, since I knew who was on top of queue at the time. Anyway, I missed much of Round 5 with intermittent technical difficulties (though I recall being live for Munch’s great Peralta pick), and with the 86th overall pick, my boy Jason Varitek having just been selected by Kiros, I autodrafted Javy Lopez from my queue. After that I made sure to try to have my queue in better order, or at least a couple of guys I wanted at the top. As I said at the time, 'Tek having just been drafted makes Lopez look a little better, but truth be told I don’t much like the pick. That said, I’m not sure who else I’d have targeted at C if I didn’t get Lopez, and I didn’t have any burning desire to specifically take anyone else, and it’s not like I got Gregg Zaun, so it could have been worse. In retrospect, looking at the several picks following mine, I’d have preferred Pat Burrell, but I probably wouldn’t have made that pick in that spot anyway.
Round 5 had been curiously closer-free, following the Round 4 frenzy, until Francisco Cordero with the final pick, and when Jenks was lifted third in Round 6, I knew I had to act, which I was pretty comfortable doing, feeling that Derek Turnbow was markedly better than the next batch of closers, and taking him with the 95th overall pick. I was quickly satisfied with this pick as Fuentes and Hoffman followed immediately, Isringhausen being taken later in the round. This round, while we’re here, included an unusual number of really good picks (I like Tracy, Lugo and Crisp a lot, plus three guys moving to the AL – Glaus and Thome, who I tend to clump together – and Wilkerson, all of whom could have huge seasons. Particularly Wilkerson, who is a great pick here.).
By the 7th round, people are just starting to look to fill holes and the closer run begins drying up. Benitez and Gordon both go here. I didn’t have anybody really in mind to take here; about midway through the round it occurred to me that, despite my overarching strategical goal to avoid starters because good ones would be available late, John Patterson was by a wide margin the best SP left. A wider margin than the best player remaining at any other position. I think this is a good way to approach a fantasy draft in general. So, in round 7, at #122 overall, I drafted John Patterson. I then decided, that with Peavy, Turnbow, and Patterson as my first three pitchers drafted, that I should continue to draft heavily to the offensive side, while taking pitchers that play in favorable NL parks. Since that’s what I was already doing, I figured it’d be a great strategy.
I also thought the time had come to keep a close eye on positional holes. 9 picks later, in Round 8, I drafted Mark Loretta with the 131st overall pick. Ryan Freel, who I liked, had just been taken, and I felt strongly that Loretta was by far the best 2B left on the board. Someone (sorry, forgot who) mentioned that we were drafting in Bizarro World since Winnowill had as yet drafted no Indians and I had no Red Sox, so I made a comment that I’d soon fulfill their every desire. When Omni took Josh Beckett two picks before mine, I cursed his name, but it was all a ruse; while I like Beckett’s Ks this year, I had already decided on Loretta and his 120 R.
Another 26-pick wait, as the next round of SPs dried up. Garcia, Schilling (great pick), Garland, Myers (good pick), Sabathia, Kazmir, Chris Young (the pitcher), Zach Duke, and my personal favorite, Danny Haren, were all lifted in this range. The best picks made here, though, were Jhonny Gomes and Jason Lane. There were also some problematic picks: I don’t like Torii Hunter, David Eckstein (probably both picked to fill holes, though), Garciappara, Willy Taveras, Geoff Jenkins, or Torrealba (remains inexplicable to me, maybe an overstatement of park effects at work there). The last couple of legit closers went as Valverde and Chris Ray were taken consecutively in the middle of the round as well.
That said, I had my eye on the very player I wanted, and I got him: Justin Morneau in Round 9, at 158th overall. While many 1Bs were already off the board, I didn’t want to miss out on him; the Overbay pick immediately preceding mine only convinced me more (as if I needed convincing; I was talking about “the guy I want” the entire time the 26 picks were going by) that he was the man for me in Round 9. Notwithstanding the fact that I had my eye on another young 1B slugger, I felt Morneau was the best value I could get at 1B there, and with an IF slot in this league you really want two power hitters at that position on your team, if not more.
Mench at the next pick was really good value, as was Bill Hall two picks later (who I had also been eyeing), and as more infielders evaporated, I was pretty sure I’d want to fill my 3B hole sooner than later, so I figured I’d jump on Garrett Atkins in Round 10, with #167 overall. This is another pick I don’t like that much now, but with two 3B-eligible guys being picked immediately following my pick (Polanco (an underrated pick there) and Hillenbrand), I’m still convinced this was the right spot to make it. I should also say that Guardado and Wickman falling to the mid-10th round was great value for Petelin and the poster responsible for project mayhem.
Round 11 led off with the first non-closer RP taken, Justin Duchscherer (absolutely the right man for that job), followed by, interestingly enough, two former Expos and a former former-Expo in Nick Johnson, Javier Vasquez, and Preston Wilson. Okay, not that interesting. Anyway, in Round 11 I took the other sleeper stud at 1B, Chris Shelton, with the 194th overall pick. The two picks to close out the round (Jay Gibbons and Nick Swisher), while they contribute with OF eligibility, are in my opinion inferior contributors to Shelton, not to mention I had targeted him (and Morneau) before the draft as good value at 1B, so I was very happy with this pick.
My infield complete, my one closer drafted, my rotation begun, I started to look back at the OF. The discussion of the surprisingly thin pickings at RF had already begun, and that was the one position I had so far not drafted for. Conveniently, I figured the time was about right to take Bill Clark at #203, another guy who could really outperform expectations this season in Milwaukee, as well as contribute some speed to my team. I also want to note Capuano and Casey Blake as two really strong picks early in Round 12.
The next 26 picks went very poorly for me. Curtis Granderson, a valuable OF I had decided I could wait another round or two on, was picked soon after my Clark pick. Same story with Baldelli. Francisco Liriano was actually picked by Puget Sound right after I picked Clark. Then, starting near the end of Round 12 the entire next tier of starting pitchers disappeared before my eyes. Something like half a dozen guys I had targeted as good value at around this point in the draft, including the guy I had my heart set on for my next pick. I had decided on Joey Blanton, with a couple of other guys as backups in case he was picked, but I had definitely decided it was time to take a 3rd SP. Of course, Daniel Cabrera, Penny, Ervin Santana, Westbrook (who was my first favorite backup to Big Joe B.), and Millwood were all snatched up, just before UU’s House of Blades earned my eternal enmity by drafting Blanton. Then project mayhem took Lowry (my second favorite backup to JB), and Escobar and Conteras were also lifted. This amazingly consecutive run on B-level pitchers (among whom I really, really liked Blanton) threw me into a panic. Really, the Blanton steal was my first catastrophe of this draft, which I suppose is a good thing, given that it didn’t come until Round 13). I had no idea what to do. I essentially decided “screw it” (this would also become a theme for me as the draft continued; not really a good thing, but not necessarily bad either) and made a pretty random pick at #230 overall with Scott Linebrink. He was a guy that was on my shortlist of elite holds guys after briefly perusing the 2004 and 2005 holds leaderboards in “preparation” for this draft, and he was sitting on my queue for whatever point I deemed appropriate to start thinking about that, so I nabbed him. Perhaps predictably, this “random”/instinct choice probably turned out to be one of my better picks.
It was certainly better than my next few, but the Blanton tragedy having been covered, I’ll take a break and return to finish the recap of my team’s draft later. Thank you.