What would happen in Mexico if the US deported all the Mexican illegal aliens here?

[zamboniracer]

I apologize if there's a thread on this question already but I couldn't find it.

We're debating in various threads (to which I've contributed both heat and light) the illegal immigration question insofar as it concerns the U.S. What would happen south of the border if all the people who are now in the U.S. were back in Mexico and couldn't come to the U.S. Does anybody have any good ideas? The U.S. currently is Mexico's safety value for Mexico's surplus labor. If that outlet was taken away what would happen?

[Argent Towers]

There would just be a bunch of unhappy and poor people in Mexico?

[Der Trihs]

Major economic problems, but an easing of the political ones; they can just blame everything on America and be believed.

[Krokodil]

Mexico's largest single source of money would disappear. If you took away my job and banned me form any legal way of earning money, I think I'd take a hard look at my illegal options. Drug-running would permeate Mexican society at higher and borader levels than it currently does.

On this side of the border: Do you like table grapes? Do you think $2.69/lb is a reasonable price? Deport all illegal Mexicans, and you can watch that price triple. Plus a hefty tax; Deporting ten million people in one fell swoop will be expensive, and you know by now who will pay for it.

On the plus side, the station formerly known as Telemundo will probably show a lot of Law & Order reruns, if you're into that...

[Merijeek]

Originally Posted by Krokodil

Deporting ten million people in one fell swoop will be expensive, and you know by now who will pay for it.

Tax cuts!

-Joe

[Krokodil]

Originally Posted by Merijeek

Tax cuts!

Not in my tax bracket, pal.

[BrainGlutton]

Mexicans will develop a taste for Tex-Mex cuisine.

[zamboniracer]

Originally Posted by Krokodil

Mexico's largest single source of money would disappear. If you took away my job and banned me form any legal way of earning money, I think I'd take a hard look at my illegal options. Drug-running would permeate Mexican society at higher and borader levels than it currently does.

On this side of the border: Do you like table grapes? Do you think $2.69/lb is a reasonable price? Deport all illegal Mexicans, and you can watch that price triple. Plus a hefty tax; Deporting ten million people in one fell swoop will be expensive, and you know by now who will pay for it.

On the plus side, the station formerly known as Telemundo will probably show a lot of Law & Order reruns, if you're into that...

As I said in the OP, I'm not interested in discussing what happens on the US side of the border in this thread because there are already many threads on that topic. (Although the loss of Jackie Guerrido's morning weather reports on Univision will be missed. ).

You make an excellent point about the money supply though. That's the type of thing we need to think through. I agree that some desparate people may turn to crime but what will others do? Put pressure on the Mexican government for reforms? What reforms? Would they/could they throw out the ruling party? Will the peasants seize the Mexican oil fields? I dunno.

[levdrakon]

Originally Posted by zamboniracer

You make an excellent point about the money supply though. That's the type of thing we need to think through. I agree that some desparate people may turn to crime but what will others do? Put pressure on the Mexican government for reforms? What reforms? Would they/could they throw out the ruling party? Will the peasants seize the Mexican oil fields? I dunno.

I brought this up in one of those other threads, though I can't remember which one. While it would be painful for individuals, in the long run it might be healthier if the leaders of certain countries didn't have the US pressure valve for their most desperate citizens. These leaders have millions of people who can't stand living in their home country, and hopefully they'd have to finally address that. Why doesn't anyone want to live in our wonderful country of Guatemala? Uh, because you're leadership sucks and people are starving?

[Ludovic]

Originally Posted by Krokodil

On this side of the border: Do you like table grapes? Do you think $2.69/lb is a reasonable price? Deport all illegal Mexicans, and you can watch that price triple.

Hmmm, that got me thinking: who picks Concord grapes? (My brother asked my Mom, who's lived in Upstate NY for awhile, if there's a lot of itinerant farmers and she said no, but then again she's in the Albany area.) If it will get more Concord grapes down in Florida I'd be all for deportation.

[CBEscapee]

Originally Posted by zamboniracer

Would they/could they throw out the ruling party? Will the peasants seize the Mexican oil fields? I dunno.

What ruling party? No one has a majority in the legislature. National elections are just a little more than a month away.

Peasant siezing oil fields? Ridiculous.

The numbers thrown around in the American press speak of an estimated 11 million illegal aliens in the US and that half are from Mexico which means roughly 5 million. That equates only to 5% of our population. While many families who have come to rely on the remittances would suffer a drop in their income most of us will notice very little difference.

BTW my daughter, a recent graduate of a prestigious university here, just completed her first week of employment with an American company located here in Guadalajara. One of her qualifications for the position is her fluency in English. Her starting salary is $8500mn a month. The equivalent of $780usd. This is less than I paid monthly for her tuition. Two classmates were hired for similar positions at Mexican companies at about 150% of her salary. Do the Americans on this board feel that the "ruling party" should force the American company to pay a higher wage?

[BrainGlutton]

Originally Posted by levdrakon

Why doesn't anyone want to live in our wonderful country of Guatemala? Uh, because you're leadership sucks and people are starving?

Yeh, but . . . what is the leadership supposed to do about that?

[zamboniracer]

Originally Posted by CBEscapee

What ruling party? No one has a majority in the legislature. National elections are just a little more than a month away.

Peasant siezing oil fields? Ridiculous.

The numbers thrown around in the American press speak of an estimated 11 million illegal aliens in the US and that half are from Mexico which means roughly 5 million. That equates only to 5% of our population. While many families who have come to rely on the remittances would suffer a drop in their income most of us will notice very little difference.

BTW my daughter, a recent graduate of a prestigious university here, just completed her first week of employment with an American company located here in Guadalajara. One of her qualifications for the position is her fluency in English. Her starting salary is $8500mn a month. The equivalent of $780usd. This is less than I paid monthly for her tuition. Two classmates were hired for similar positions at Mexican companies at about 150% of her salary. Do the Americans on this board feel that the "ruling party" should force the American company to pay a higher wage?

Very interesting.

I should think that having 5% of one's population abandon the country would be a cause for alarm and not rate an "only." What is Mexico doing, or what are its many party candidates proposing to do, to keep such people at home? I imagine that they are proposing nothing, but perhaps public works projects should be built to keep the Mexicans employed at home and simultaneously improve Mexico's infrastructure.

As for your daughter's salary from the US company I would say that US companies rip off American citizens employees so the fact that they do the same thing to Mexican employees is similarly regretable. I am more concerned about American companies dodging employment standards here at home by hiring illegal immigrants who don't insist that their employers pay for workers comp, SS and medicare benefits, or OSHA standards than that pay Mexicans in Mexico less than they could get from Mexican employers though.

[Ludovic]

Actually, now that I think about it, I am more interested in an answer to my somewhat-facetious comment.

There doesn't seem to be a whole bunch of illegal migrant labor involved in agriculture in Upstate NY. I mean, I am sure there are a lot of migrants who come for the apple and grape harvests but when I lived there I didn't see even one foreigner involved in agriculture, so they must be natives.

If the farm laborers involved in the apple and grape harvests (in NY) are indeed mostly natives, it would tend to belie the assumption that you can't make a viable product without illegal immigrant labor.

(Come to think of it, my grandfather, who owned an apple orchard outside of Syracuse, did mention there were a lot of foreign apple-pickers, but I never saw any, and all his employees I ever saw were Anglos.)

[MMI]

Originally Posted by zamboniracer

I apologize if there's a thread on this question already but I couldn't find it.

We're debating in various threads (to which I've contributed both heat and light) the illegal immigration question insofar as it concerns the U.S. What would happen south of the border if all the people who are now in the U.S. were back in Mexico and couldn't come to the U.S. Does anybody have any good ideas? The U.S. currently is Mexico's safety value for Mexico's surplus labor. If that outlet was taken away what would happen?

All of them or just the ones from Mexico originally?

[DrDeth]

Originally Posted by Krokodil

Mexico's largest single source of money would disappear.

On this side of the border: Do you like table grapes? Do you think $2.69/lb is a reasonable price? Deport all illegal Mexicans, and you can watch that price triple.

Plus a hefty tax; Deporting ten million people in one fell swoop will be expensive, and you know by now who will pay for it....

As the OP mentioned, he isn't asking about the effects here in the USA. However, the cost of produce would only rise around 5% (see many, many other posts & threads on this subject), and the cost of deporting them (20 Bil$)would be only about half the annual cost of the "War against Drugs" (40Bil$).

But you are more or less correct- I think cash sent home by Mexicans in the USA is the 2nd largest source of cash in Mexico.

[Unregistered Bull]

Originally Posted by DrDeth

the cost of produce would only rise around 5% (see many, many other posts & threads on this subject), and the cost of deporting them (20 Bil$)would be only about half the annual cost of the "War against Drugs" (40Bil$).

But you are more or less correct- I think cash sent home by Mexicans in the USA is the 2nd largest source of cash in Mexico.

How about some cites, excluding FAIR, CIS, or Vdare, instead? And how much of the remittances are from citizens and resident aliens?

[JXJohns]

Originally Posted by CBEscapee

...Two classmates were hired for similar positions at Mexican companies at about 150% of her salary. Do the Americans on this board feel that the "ruling party" should force the American company to pay a higher wage?

Did someone put a gun to her head and make her take the job? It sounds to me that she made the wrong decision if she could have earned 150% more somewhere else. As was mentioned earlier, students out of college here, routinely get a low initial salary. They have no experience and regardless of their schooling they are a bit of a liability to their employer.

To answer your question, I'd like to see the "ruling party" kick the American companies out of Mexico, forcing them hire Americans and pay them somewhat of a living wage. Probably not the answer you were looking for however.

[zamboniracer]

Originally Posted by MMI

All of them or just the ones from Mexico originally?

Cute. As I said in the OP, my question concerns Mexican illegal aliens who wind up "back in Mexico" which to my mind excludes illegals from Guatemala, Canada, China, etc because a person cannot be sent "back" to a place he/she was not from in the first place.

[DrDeth]

Originally Posted by Unregistered Bull

How about some cites, excluding FAIR, CIS, or Vdare, instead? And how much of the remittances are from citizens and resident aliens?

Are you asking about the cost of produce, the cost of deportation or how much cash is sent back? You're a member, try a Search if you are dying to know. If you ask for cites within the limits of the OP, I'll get you an answer, but you'll have to define your acronyms.

[Unregistered Bull]

Originally Posted by DrDeth

Are you asking about the cost of produce, the cost of deportation or how much cash is sent back? You're a member, try a Search if you are dying to know. If you ask for cites within the limits of the OP, I'll get you an answer, but you'll have to define your acronyms.

Hell, all three.

Acronyms:

Federation for American Immigration Reform FAIR

Center for Immigration Studies CIS

Vdare / Center for American Unity http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vdare

[DrDeth]

Originally Posted by Unregistered Bull

Hell, all three.

Acronyms:

Federation for American Immigration Reform FAIR

Center for Immigration Studies CIS

Vdare / Center for American Unity http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vdare

The first is outside the OP and has been asked and answered seveal times here, and I linked to it twice int he last few months

How much cash is sent back:
http://www.realcities.com/mld/krwashington/14170542.htm
"Money sent back to Mexico from those working in the United States reached a record high last year, $20 billion, making remittances from migrants Mexico's second largest source of income, surpassed only by oil exports. "

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/articl...type=printable
In five Mexican states, the money migrants send home exceeds locally generated income, one study found.

Last year, Mexico received a record $20 billion in remittances from migrant workers. That is equal to Mexico's 2004 income from oil exports and dwarfing tourism revenue.

Arriving in small monthly transfers of $100 and $200, remittances have formed a vast river of "migra-dollars" that now exceeds lending by multilateral development agencies and foreign direct investment combined, according to the Inter-American Development Bank.

The money Mexican migrants send home almost equals the U.S. foreign aid budget for the entire world, said Arturo Valenzuela, director of the Center for Latin American Studies at Georgetown University and former head of Inter-American Affairs at the National Security Council during the Clinton administration.

"Where are we going to come up with $20 billion?" to ensure stability in Mexico, Valenzuela asked at a recent conference. "Has anybody in the raging immigration debate over the last few weeks thought, could it be good for the fundamental interests of the United States ... to serve as something of a safety valve for those that can't be employed in Mexico?" "

Cost of Deportation (note, estimates vary widely):
http://karlmaher.blogspot.com/2005/0...-illegals.html
"Steve Verdon at Outside the Beltway links to a document estimating the cost of deporting the illegal-immigrant community. It comes out to $141 billion over five years to export 8 million people back to wherever they came from.

Not that there's anything wrong with that, and it's actually cheaper than I'd have thought. But I wonder what would happen in Mexico if its unemployed-male population grew by 1.5 million people a year.

This BLS document adjusts Mexico's employment statistics to U.S. concepts (1998 data, latest I could conveniently locate). It says Mexico had a labor force of 18 million that year, and reported unemployment of about 600,000 people.

So if we were to shell out for the deportation program, we'd basically quadruple Mexico's unemployment rate. " = $28.5 Bil/year

http://www.alipac.us/article918.html
The Economics of Immigration Enforcement: Assessing the Costs and Benefits of Mass Deportation, written by statistical expert Edwin Rubenstein, presents startling data and analysis of the massive costs of illegal immigration to Americans and the enormous benefits that would result from deporting illegals.

The NPI paper is a direct response to a well publicized July 2005 study by The Center for American Progress, a leftwing think tank. The paper claims that the price of deporting illegal aliens would be prohibitive, costing the government up to $230 billion over five years.

But the Centerpaper basically ignores the total cost to American taxpayers of having anywhere from 8.5 to 20 million illegals in the U.S. who demand and receive benefits such as education, medical care, welfare and housing subsidies. NPIA study finds that illegals receive more than $26 billion per year in federal services and additional billions from state and local governments. "= $46Bil !

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn...072501605.html
"The study, "Deporting the Undocumented: A Cost Assessment," scheduled for release today by the Center for American Progress, is billed by its authors as the first-ever estimate of costs associated with arresting, detaining, prosecuting and removing immigrants who have entered the United States illegally or overstayed their visas. The total cost would be $206 billion to $230 billion over five years, depending on how many of the immigrants leave voluntarily, according to the study....The study estimates that it would cost about $28 billion per year to apprehend illegal immigrants, $6 billion a year to detain them, $500 million for extra beds, $4 billion to secure borders, $2 million to legally process them and $1.6 billion to bus or fly them home. 28Bil+$

The 20 Billion figure came from FAIR. Why you chose to exclude it, when all the rest are just as WAG estimates and just as biased, I don't know. It's a low end estimate true, but it seems in the ballpark. The cost of the War on Drugs is about 40Bil$/year.

[CBEscapee]

Originally Posted by JXJohns

Did someone put a gun to her head and make her take the job? It sounds to me that she made the wrong decision if she could have earned 150% more somewhere else. As was mentioned earlier, students out of college here, routinely get a low initial salary. They have no experience and regardless of their schooling they are a bit of a liability to their employer.

To answer your question, I'd like to see the "ruling party" kick the American companies out of Mexico, forcing them hire Americans and pay them somewhat of a living wage. Probably not the answer you were looking for however.

Oh well, Americans are known for not grasping irony. Entry level jobs for recent graduates aren't in abundance. She took the job because she hadn't recieved a better offer. She wasn't offered a job at the locally owned companies. No no one put a gun to her head and that isn't the point. The point is that all through these threads about Mexico, people here say the Mexican government should do this or that to create better jobs at home. They make lots of demands but they offer no solution. I'm curious whether they think they might have something other than an opinion on how this should be accomplished. I won't hold my breath.

If the government here were to regulate the wages that foreign companies pay, something that would cause an uproar in your country, then they would be labeled anti-capitalist or some such nonsense.

And I'm not really looking for any answers to Mexico's problems on this board. It is continuosly demonstrated that no one around here has any real knowledge of Mexico.

[magellan01]

Originally Posted by CBEscapee

Oh well, Americans are known for not grasping irony. Entry level jobs for recent graduates aren't in abundance. She took the job because she hadn't recieved a better offer. She wasn't offered a job at the locally owned companies. No no one put a gun to her head and that isn't the point. The point is that all through these threads about Mexico, people here say the Mexican government should do this or that to create better jobs at home. They make lots of demands but they offer no solution. I'm curious whether they think they might have something other than an opinion on how this should be accomplished. I won't hold my breath.

If the government here were to regulate the wages that foreign companies pay, something that would cause an uproar in your country, then they would be labeled anti-capitalist or some such nonsense.

And I'm not really looking for any answers to Mexico's problems on this board. It is continuosly demonstrated that no one around here has any real knowledge of Mexico.

No snarkiness indended, but isn't that fact that that company was there to offer her that job a good thing? Without it she would have taken a worse job, or no job, right?And if her company has success by hiring people like your daughter, more foreign companies will look to open offices there, correct? And the more companies that open offices there, the more power people like your daughter will have. Having more companies there will increase demand for workers, which transfers power to their hands. Assuming, of course, the corrupt officials don't find a way to interfere with the laws of economics.

[JXJohns]

Originally Posted by CBEscapee

Oh well, Americans are known for not grasping irony. Entry level jobs for recent graduates aren't in abundance. She took the job because she hadn't recieved a better offer. She wasn't offered a job at the locally owned companies. No no one put a gun to her head and that isn't the point. The point is that all through these threads about Mexico, people here say the Mexican government should do this or that to create better jobs at home. They make lots of demands but they offer no solution. I'm curious whether they think they might have something other than an opinion on how this should be accomplished. I won't hold my breath.

If the government here were to regulate the wages that foreign companies pay, something that would cause an uproar in your country, then they would be labeled anti-capitalist or some such nonsense.

And I'm not really looking for any answers to Mexico's problems on this board. It is continuosly demonstrated that no one around here has any real knowledge of Mexico.

My my, aren't we smug? Perhaps if your daughter had no better offers she should be happy with the one that she got and accepted. It sounds like those 150% higher paying jobs really aren't in abundance and you used them to try and make a point? As I said, here in America, just because you graduated college does not mean you will get a job making a small fortune. You get in line with everyone else who has the same degree and lack of experience. Like you said though, I obviously don't know anything about Mexico so perhaps employers line the streets outside of colleges looking for graduates to throw money at?

I would guess that if your government started regulating wages paid by foreign companies, the only people you would hear complaining up here are those paying the wages. Frankly, I would like to see the factories move back to the US away from Mexico and I think that I am not alone. I'd like to buy a new Dodge that was Hecho in Estados Unidos rather than Hecho en Mexico.

And yes, our knowledge of Mexico is about on par as our knowledge of Canada. See the ongoing thread about that if you would like.

[DrDeth]

Originally Posted by CBEscapee

And I'm not really looking for any answers to Mexico's problems on this board. It is continuosly demonstrated that no one around here has any real knowledge of Mexico.

And this demonstration seems to continue in your posts. Rather than carping, tell us what to YOU think would happen if all the Illegal Immigrants were sent back to Mexico to stay? AND, what do YOU think Mexico should do to have their own people rather stay in Mexico to work? (Which woudl likely include more and better jobs).

Unregistered Bull- there's your cites. Now, let's hear your answers on the OP's question.