Daniel Ortega, president of Nicaragua during the Sandinista regime from 1985 to 1990, appears favored to win Nicaragua’s presidential election in November. He is an ally of Hugo Chavez. What does this portend for Nicaragua’s relations with other Latin American countries and with the U.S.? For Central America in general?
Ronald Reagan begins breakdancing in his grave?
The U.S. will immediately begin a dirty tricks campaign against Nicaragua, just as they did the last time Ortega was elected. I don’t think there’s an insurgency to fund like they did last time, so it’ll be more subtle a la the campaign against Chavez.
Maybe he will be interviewed in “Playboy” again.
Finally! A reason to buy that magazine! 
Add yet, still another sovereign nation to the list of countries that Bush and the Republicans will want to invade.
Daniel Ortega was described to me by someone who knows him as “Messianic”. He certainly has doggedly fought on despite losing again and again, and even being discredited by many of his own supporters, over the “piñata” scandal (in which senior Sandinistas feathered their own nests when about to lose power) and with the allegations of abuse by his niece and adopted daughter Zoilamérica Narváez.
He is convinced that he will, once again, be President, and he’s done all he can to make sure of this, including making pacts with his old enemies.
Just to show how low he will sink to regain power, here is the latest development (bolding mine):
Isn’t this in line with the Republican Party’s position? Maybe they’re trying to avoid an invasion.
Or maybe, just maybe, they’ve learned to play the party politics game. And that means that if he gets more votes the system works.
The Nicaraguan women’s movement had a tough enough time reconciling their ties to the Sandinistas during the Zoilamérica furore in the late 90s. It’ll be interesting to see what they do now.
Is there oil in Nicaragua?
[shrug] In the past, bananas seem to have been sufficient inducement.
Zoilamerica Narvaez, Ortega’s stepdaughter, accused him of sexually abusing her as a child and teenager. He has immunity as a member of parliament, and so it never went to court.
I think, though that if Ortega wins, it’s not going to be such a big deal for the US this time, even though he’s not our choice. But the Sandinistas back in the 70s and 80s, backed by the Soviets and sponsoring Communist rebels in Central America were a threat to us. The Sandinistas today, after the fall of the Soviets, and without any major backers aren’t so much of a threat.
How good are the current relations between Nicaragua and the US? Not all that rosy IIRC. I don’t think that this will substantially change them, one way or the other. Unless Ortega starts doing diablo Bush type speeches, I doubt this will get much more than a yawn from either the administration or the Republican party. They have bigger fish to fry these days.
IMHO none. What, do you think that this is some new trend, that socialism is sweeping Central/South America or something? Its the same old shit. This guy is as dirty as the rest, and the cycle just continues to chug along down there…
-XT
Then why has the Bush Admin been spending money to influence the election?
Assuming its true, because its cheaper to send money than troops of course. We WANT to have governements friendly to us (or at least neutral) in our own backyard…as opposed to governments who will obviously be hostile toward the US. Doesn’t mean that we will have a major heart failure over it. I’m sure Bush et al won’t be happy…but as I said, they have bigger fish to fry these days (Iraq, Afganastan, possible Republican loss of control of one or both houses, etc etc). I’d guess this is pretty far down the list…
-XT
Let’s give the devil his due. We had been invading Central American nations by proxy for years before Bush was elected.
I was only mostly joking, as Bush & the Republicans have plenty of other fires to put out. But one can’t help but think Bush would score a few points with paleoconservatives by rattlling a few sabres down Nicaragua way.