Super Bears, Super Bowl

[Frostillicus]

After a brief 21 year hiatus, my Bears are back in the Super Bowl!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[SCSimmons]

Originally Posted by Frostillicus

After a brief 21 year hiatus, my Bears are back in the Super Bowl!!!!!!!!!!!!!:

Ah, I remember that last one like it was yesterday. A friend of mine at school made a metric assload of money making stupid bets with someone who, if they weren't necessarily a Pats fan, at least thought the Bears weren't God's gift to football. I think one of them was Bears to win by 35+. He had several bets along those lines, and won all but one. He collected the cash, but I still thought he was an idiot.

Thought for a minute we'd have a rematch this year. Guess not. Did anyone notice that, when the Pats got the ball back with a minute to go & down four, Peyton apparently couldn't watch? That was hilarious.

[JThunder]

Originally Posted by SCSimmons

A friend of mine at school made a metric assload of money making stupid bets with someone who, if they weren't necessarily a Pats fan, at least thought the Bears weren't God's gift to football.

Of course they weren't.

Ditka is God's gift to football.

[Frostillicus]

How many Colts fans almost had heart attacks when Reggie Wayne almost fumbled that ball on the Colts' final drive? I nearly fell out of my chair, and I am a Bears fan.

[Lochdale]

Bears should win the whole thing. Colts can't stop the run and the Bears defense is just far too dominant.

[Oslo Ostragoth]

Droppin' in to drop off a "Hell yeah!".

[Marley23]

Originally Posted by Lochdale

Colts can't stop the run

Except in the playoffs, where they've done just that. With the Colts' offense and the Bears' defense, it looks like we have a very good irresistable force vs. immovable object matchup.

[Lochdale]

Originally Posted by Marley23

Except in the playoffs, where they've done just that. With the Colts' offense and the Bears' defense, it looks like we have a very good irresistable force vs. immovable object matchup.

Perhaps but doesn't the defense usually win these sorts of match-ups?

[Marley23]

Originally Posted by Lochdale

Perhaps but doesn't the defense usually win these sorts of match-ups?

It's supposed to. But according to that rule, the Colts should have lost their game against Baltimore - probably by a lot - and they probably shouldn't have beaten New England either.

[Mr. Nuggets]

Am I the only Colts fan here?

[minlokwat]

So when will they be coming out with the Super Bowl Shuffle video?

[MadTheSwine]

Good thing we dont have to suffer through two weeks of Super Beauxl references.

[ShibbOleth]

Originally Posted by minlokwat

So when will they be coming out with the Super Bowl Shuffle video?

I could swear I heard them playing that as background music on Fox during the postgame stuff. Can anyone confirm or was it just an acid flashback?

[Trunk]

Originally Posted by Lochdale

Bears should win the whole thing. Colts can't stop the run and the Bears defense is just far too dominant.

Yeah, against the NFC.

Of the Final Four teams from the NFC,

Against the AFC,
Seattle was 2-2.
Chicago was 2-2.
Saints were 1-3.
Eagles were 1-3.

Those are the 4 best teams in the NFC.

Alternately, against the NFC,
NE was 4-0
Baltimore was 3-1
Indy was 3-1
San Diego was 4-0

When you're talking about the NFC, you're talking about the junior varsity, the minor leagues.

You already saw the Superbowl folks. . .it was last night at 6:30 Eastern. At least it was a good game.

[Marley23]

Originally Posted by Mr. Nuggets

Am I the only Colts fan here?

No, I'm rooting for them.

[VunderBob]

Originally Posted by Mr. Nuggets

Am I the only Colts fan here?

No, but there ain't many of us...

[Sarahfeena]

Originally Posted by ShibbOleth

I could swear I heard them playing that as background music on Fox during the postgame stuff. Can anyone confirm or was it just an acid flashback?

They definitely did!

I am so excited right now, I can hardly stand it. I was refusing to let myself believe this could happen until it did (I'm a Cubs fan, so I have learned my lesson time & time again). And I think it's really cool that the Colts got in, as well...should be a great game.

BEAR DOWN ! ! !

[Hampshire]

Originally Posted by Lochdale

Bears should win the whole thing. Colts can't stop the run and the Bears defense is just far too dominant.

Is that the Bears dominant defense that allowed the lowly Packers 27 points on X-mas eve?

[Smooth Jack]

Originally Posted by Mr. Nuggets

Am I the only Colts fan here?

You're not alone. I've been a Colts fan since they moved to Indy. We've had more than our share of disappointments. The bad call in Pittsburgh that kept us from the Super Bowl in the 90's. Losing repeatedly to the Pats, and their rule bending coach. The monkey on Manning's back for not winning "the big game."

Last night's game was poetic. The Colts beat the team that haunted them for years. The week before, we beat the #1 defense in the league. Before that, a defense that's statistically soft on the run held the #2 leading rusher in the league to 32 yards. The Colts are ready to play.

The Bears are a great organization, and you'll find a lot of Bears fans in Indy, but this is the Colt's year. Bears fans may have waited for 21 years, but Colts fans have been waiting 36 years. It's about time.

GO COLTS!

[Trunk]

Originally Posted by Hampshire

Is that the Bears dominant defense that allowed the lowly Packers 27 points on X-mas eve?

They've improved since giving up 373 yards to the Packers in that game. They've only been giving up 340 yards per game during the playoffs.

[Marley23]

Originally Posted by Smooth Jack

You're not alone. I've been a Colts fan since they moved to Indy.

I'm thinking the Colts need their own song to counteract any revival or re-remake of the Super Bowl Shuffle.

We ain't here
To worship Satan
We're just here to win the big one for Peyton...

[Lochdale]

Originally Posted by Hampshire

Is that the Bears dominant defense that allowed the lowly Packers 27 points on X-mas eve?

In an utterly meaningless game since the Bears had already secured a by and home field advantage. Also it was on New Years Eve and I believe the Packers only scored 26 points.

Great example

[Man With a Cat]

Originally Posted by Trunk

Yeah, against the NFC.

Of the Final Four teams from the NFC,

Against the AFC,
Seattle was 2-2.
Chicago was 2-2.
Saints were 1-3.
Eagles were 1-3.

Those are the 4 best teams in the NFC.

Alternately, against the NFC,
NE was 4-0
Baltimore was 3-1
Indy was 3-1
San Diego was 4-0

When you're talking about the NFC, you're talking about the junior varsity, the minor leagues.

You already saw the Superbowl folks. . .it was last night at 6:30 Eastern. At least it was a good game.

Ah yes, the Expert Statistical Analysis. The same kind of expert analysis that was so accurate in predicting the winner of the World Series....or that big Ohio State/Florida game....

Go Bears!

From the guy that has no voice and a sore back from standing and screaming for 3 1/2 hours while the snow fell on us.

[MaxTheVool]

(a) go Bears (although I can't claim to be more than a passing football fan)
(b) I thought the momentum shifts in the game were fascinating. The game had three distinct periods:
Period 1 (most of the first half): The Bears are solid on offense and defense, EXCEPT that they suddenly can't do anything once they're inside the 10 yard line
Period 2 (end of 2nd quarter, most of third quarter): The Saints are WAY better than the Bears, who look like amateurs
Period 3 (remainder): Suddenly, the Bears are good again, and the Saints look like amateurs

[Trunk]

Originally Posted by Lochdale

In an utterly meaningless game since the Bears had already secured a by and home field advantage. Also it was on New Years Eve and I believe the Packers only scored 26 points.

Great example

OK, forget about the Pack. Let's go back in time. How do you explain

the 375 yards they gave up to the Saints,
the 306 they gave up to the Seahawks,
the 327 they gave up to Detroit,
the 357 they gave up to Tampa Bay,
the 433 they gave up to the Rams,
the 348 they gave up to the Vikings
the 352 they gave up to the Pats

That is domination all right. 357 against TB. 348 against the Vikes. Two of the bottom 10 offensive teams in the league.

Man, what chance does Indy's offense stand against this DOMINANT defense?

They started out all right this year, but there is no one outside of Chicago who thinks this is a dominant defense anymore.

[Snarky_Kong]

Originally Posted by Trunk

OK, forget about the Pack. Let's go back in time. How do you explain

the 375 yards they gave up to the Saints,
the 306 they gave up to the Seahawks,
the 327 they gave up to Detroit,
the 357 they gave up to Tampa Bay,
the 433 they gave up to the Rams,
the 348 they gave up to the Vikings
the 352 they gave up to the Pats

That is domination all right. 357 against TB. 348 against the Vikes. Two of the bottom 10 offensive teams in the league.

Man, what chance does Indy's offense stand against this DOMINANT defense?

They started out all right this year, but there is no one outside of Chicago who thinks this is a dominant defense anymore.

I must have missed the rule change where the team that gets the most yards wins the game. They gave up an average 10 a little more than 16points a game. That's pretty good.

[Trunk]

Originally Posted by Snarky_Kong

I must have missed the rule change where the team that gets the most yards wins the game. They gave up an average 10 a little more than 16points a game. That's pretty good.

Over the time span that I selected those games from (their most recent 8 games) they gave up over 21.5 points per game.

Besides, total defense is measured in yards per game.

And, the point was not arguing their record, the point was Lochdale's contention that this is a dominant defense. They WERE a good defense. You give up that kind of yardage and points to teams like TB, GB, Minnesota and Detroit. . .what on Earth could make you think they have any chance of stopping the Colts.

They were third in scoring defense, behind the two teams the Colts just beat.

They also had a good record against NFC teams. Against the AFC, not so much.

You want to prop the Bears up, go ahead, but I'd start by focussing on what their offense is going to do to the Colts defense. Chicago was third in scoring. . .of course 9 of their touchdowns came from returns. That's a consistent strategy to fall back on.

[Snarky_Kong]

Originally Posted by Trunk

Over the time span that I selected those games from (their most recent 8 games) they gave up over 21.5 points per game.

Besides, total defense is measured in yards per game.

And, the point was not arguing their record, the point was Lochdale's contention that this is a dominant defense. They WERE a good defense. You give up that kind of yardage and points to teams like TB, GB, Minnesota and Detroit. . .what on Earth could make you think they have any chance of stopping the Colts.

They were third in scoring defense, behind the two teams the Colts just beat.

They also had a good record against NFC teams. Against the AFC, not so much.

You want to prop the Bears up, go ahead, but I'd start by focussing on what their offense is going to do to the Colts defense. Chicago was third in scoring. . .of course 9 of their touchdowns came from returns. That's a consistent strategy to fall back on.

The standard of ranking defense by total yards is asinine. That was my point. Now I'm not propping up the Bears, they'll be underdogs and I believe rightfully so. I do feel that they have a good defense though, and when that's the case you can always make a game out of it no matter who you play. As far as the Bears doing anything against the Colts... the Colts have a great defense? Sure they stepped up for 2 games this whole season, but if you judge their defense based on that, then you surely have to give the Bears some more credit.

The most telling thing about the Bears is that they only lost games when Grossman turned the ball over 3 or more times. If he makes stupid decisions, the Bears are screwed, if he doesn't it'll be a good game.

[Trunk]

Originally Posted by Snarky_Kong

The standard of ranking defense by total yards is asinine. That was my point. Now I'm not propping up the Bears, they'll be underdogs and I believe rightfully so. I do feel that they have a good defense though, and when that's the case you can always make a game out of it no matter who you play. As far as the Bears doing anything against the Colts... the Colts have a great defense? Sure they stepped up for 2 games this whole season, but if you judge their defense based on that, then you surely have to give the Bears some more credit.

I didn't say anything like that. I said (in so many words) that that is a better match-up to talk-up the Bears on. I didn't say Colts D was going to shut them down.

And, ranking total D and total O by yards is in no way asinine. It's a better indicator of offensive efficiency, not nearly as subjected to the whims of the football gods like "scoring" is. Bears are a case in point. . .9 touchdowns from punt returns, int returns, kick returns, blocked field goals and fumble recoveries have nothign to do with the offense.

Actually, yards per play is a better indicator of offensive efficiency.

Finally, something like "defense adjusted value over average" like the guys at footballoutsiders write about is even better.

[Surbey]

Originally Posted by Frostillicus

How many Colts fans almost had heart attacks when Reggie Wayne almost fumbled that ball on the Colts' final drive? I nearly fell out of my chair, and I am a Bears fan.

Amen, I coulda craped my pants right there.

[zamboniracer]

Originally Posted by Snarky_Kong

The standard of ranking defense by total yards is asinine.

Amen to that! Now if we can just convince the blow-hards on ESPN about that point.

[Frostillicus]

Originally Posted by Mr Bus Guy

From the guy that has no voice and a sore back from standing and screaming for 3 1/2 hours while the snow fell on us.

How frickin' cool was that?

[Indyellen]

Originally Posted by Frostillicus

How many Colts fans almost had heart attacks when Reggie Wayne almost fumbled that ball on the Colts' final drive? I nearly fell out of my chair, and I am a Bears fan.

Good Og, I almost fell off the couch!!! Himself has decided that he wants a Jeff Saturday jersey after he made the fumble-touchdown. I don't blame him, that was brilliant!

GO COLTS!!!

[garygnu]

Two notes:
-That fumble would have been negated by the roughing-the-passer penalty if lost.
-Among common opponents, the Colts are 5-0 and the Bears are 2-2.

I'll be rooting for the Colts, but in any case it looks like a good matchup.

[Snarky_Kong]

Originally Posted by Trunk

And, ranking total D and total O by yards is in no way asinine. It's a better indicator of offensive efficiency, not nearly as subjected to the whims of the football gods like "scoring" is. Bears are a case in point. . .9 touchdowns from punt returns, int returns, kick returns, blocked field goals and fumble recoveries have nothign to do with the offense.

Actually, yards per play is a better indicator of offensive efficiency.

Finally, something like "defense adjusted value over average" like the guys at footballoutsiders write about is even better.

Fine, then only count offensive points scored. Defense has always been about preventing from your opponents from scoring, the ranking should reflect who does that best. I'll take a 1 yard drive that ends up in a touchdown over a 99 yard drive that gets picked off any day.

[The Understander]

Ah. Justice is served on the eight ESPN "experts" (Brian Urlacher took a delightful cheap shot at them after the game, although I coulda done without the air quotes! )what picked the Saints to beat the Bears. Thiesman, Golic, and the rest of the Idiot Patrol looked like... well... idiots!

Only the Accuscore simulation got the result correct.

GO BEARS!

[Ellis Dee]

Originally Posted by Snarky_Kong

Fine, then only count offensive points scored. Defense has always been about preventing from your opponents from scoring, the ranking should reflect who does that best. I'll take a 1 yard drive that ends up in a touchdown over a 99 yard drive that gets picked off any day.

No, Trunk is absolutely correct. The first clue is that the NFL itself ranks offense and defense by yards, not points. Do you know more about football than the NFL does?

Consider this scenario: Offense starts with the ball on the +5...say it's from a turnover or huge kick/punt return. The defense throws a tackle for a loss then two sacks in a row. The offense is now looking at 4th & goal from the 30, so they kick a 47 yard field goal. Is this really a defensive failure, or is it a huge stop? Those who judge defense by points will call it a failure, while the rest of us who (correctly) judge defense by yards would consider it a huge defensive stand.

Also, points allowed isn't dictated by defense alone, whereas yards allowed absolutely is dictated by nothing but defense. Trunk's kick return touchdown example is an excellent one to drive this home, but you don't even need flukey plays like that.

What is the best way to stop a high-powered offense? Keep them on the sideline by running long clock-eating drives that move the chains. The offense can't score while it's watching from the sidelines. But you would credit limiting an offense like this to the defense? Why? They're on the sideline too.

Belichick anecdote: The Giants used this strategy in their Superbowl win over the Bills, with two scoring drives over 9:00 each in order to slow down the juggernaut that was the Bills K-Gun offense. Belichick utilized an odd strategy that game of pressuring the receivers instead of the quarterback. They consistently rushed two guys, dropping nine into coverage to punish any receiver that got anywhere near the ball. (To great effect.) Belichick appeared to have implemented this exact same scheme against the Colts, which makes sense since it was roughly the same situation.

Before that Superbowl, Belichick went to the defense and explained that they were going to win the game, but that they had to let Thurman Thomas rush for over a hundred yards. They all thought he was crazy, and the initial reaction was "No way; we're not going to let anybody rush for 100 against us." (They had a great run D, but were ranked 22nd against the pass.) Belichick brought the hard sell and eventually conviced them to go with his gameplan. And Scott Norwood -- bless his heart -- sealed the deal.

[appleciders]

Originally Posted by Mr. Nuggets

Am I the only Colts fan here?

Not quite, but there seem to be very few, both here and across the country. I'm looking forward to a good game; from the start, the Bears would have been my second choice to win it all.

[Frostillicus]

Originally Posted by garygnu

-That fumble would have been negated by the roughing-the-passer penalty if lost.

This is true, but nobody knew that in real time (which is when the massive heart attacks occurred).

[Trunk]

Originally Posted by Snarky_Kong

Fine, then only count offensive points scored.

OK, but that's going to move Chicago from third in total scoring to about 12th in total scoring.

I'll leave it at this. . .it's already started, the talk of the Bears having the dominating defense against the Colts offense. It's not true. No, you can't just rule out the first 8 weeks of the season, but when you look at measures of how the team is playing right now, you can't call the Bears defense dominating any more.

The match-up that is truly favorable to the Bears is their offense against the Colts defense. I'd be willing to say there has never been a team as far back in total defense as the Colts (around 22nd) that has won a Superbowl.

But, the clichès have already started. . .it's the Bear's killer defense against the Colt's mincing offense. The story writes itself, no work required. Keep that in mind when its all you hear for the next two weeks.

To me, whether the Bears cover the spread is just a question of which Rex shows up. . .the one with the 110 QB rating, or the one with the 5 QB rating.