A Cafe Society thread reminded me of this problem, which I think is under reported worldwide, but still very real. I didn’t want to highjack a CS thread, so I’m starting this one.
It’s starting to be called the “biofuel backlash”. On the surface the problem is simple, more agricultural land and cereals are being used for the production of biofuels. The shortage caused by this diversion is raising cereal prices world wide. This has led to an Italian Pasta Strike after prices rose 20%, and the Mexican “Tortilla Crisis” after the international price of corn jumped dramatically.
Here is a good overview by somebody at Oklahoma State of a report commissioned by the OECD. Some choice quotes from the liked report:
There are some skeptics regarding this problem, but none that I could find on the net seemed much more than blog rants. I do not advocate abandoning biofuels in favor of older fossil fuel tech, but I suspect the rise in ethanol production will cause more food shortages. Some may approach famine conditions in the poorer regions of the world. Is this as big a problem as I fear it could be? Is so, what can we do about it?
I tend to think bio-fuels are a bit of a red herring. The amount of land and water necessary to grow enough fuel to meet our energy needs is just an unrealistic amount. It’s a nice thing for politicians to talk about because (a) it sounds like they are pro-environment, and (b) it ends up being little more than a massive payout to farmers. The most realistic thing to do at this point is convert our power plants from fossil fuels to nuclear.
I work in the brewing industry and there is beginning to be nervous chatter about the price and availability of malted barley.
‘Malting’ barley is difficult to grow and sell, due to the high standards of the end user (the breweries). If it is too high in nitrogen, for example, it is not accepted by the maltsters and must be sold as ‘feed’ barley for less money.
It makes more sense for a farmer to grow a product he has a sure market and price for, rather than take a chance on malting barley.
In July the bakery near my house put up a sign indicating they were raising prices due to the raise of flour prices. They even posted the letter from their supplier.
I thought biofuels were supposed to be made from refuse? Corn husks, not corn grain! We’re using our food to feed our cars now.
You need 1.5 gallons of ethanol to get the same amount of energy as one gallon of gasoline. cite
The United states consumes 146 billion gallons of gasoline a year. link That’s equal to 219 billion gallons of ethanol using the 1.5 conversion number.
Current plants get 2.8 gallons of ethanol per bushel of corn, and farmers get on average 144 bushels of corn per acre farmed. link
Doing some math gets me 543 million acres of farmland to meet the gasoline needs of the US. If I’ve done my math right that comes out to 27% of the land in the continental United States.
I don’t recall who, but one of the political commentators said that ethanol is alive because nobody hoping to win the Iowa caucuses can face up to the Archer Daniels Midland Company super conglomerate, who is the only beneficiary, collecting corporate welfare…
The other problem with ethanol from corn is that you apparently use almost as much fossil fuel energy producing it as you then get back from it. (Actually, at one point, I think it was believed that you actually used more. Now, I think the general belief is you use less…but not much less.)
I think ethanol from switchgrass or sugarcane has more potential at least from the point-of-view of energy in vs. energy out.
Here is a recent report in Science looking at the ethanol issue from the point-of-view of use of petroleum and also greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. I guess the current thinking is that ethanol from corn is better than used to be believed in terms of use of petroleum…but there is still not that great a savings, particularly from the point of view of GHGs.
Brazil has been making ethanol as a gasoline replacement for over 30 years now. They are also seeing some market distortions because of t:
-sugar cane is displacing food crops in some areas-this has caused the price of food to rise
-it is more profitable to export ethanol, than use it as a fuel (gasoline is cheaper to produce, now that Brazil has its own crude oil supply)
-ethanol causes corrosion in fule storage tanksand pumps
My guess is, if you can grow a plant feedstock for ethanol cheaply enough, using alcohol makes sense-but making it from corn? Probably uneconomical (unless SUBSIDIZED).
It would not surprise me in the least to see a general rise in food prices as a result of corn-based ethanol. We use every last bit of the corn kernel in a wide variety of processed foods, the largest perhaps being high fructose corn syrup in soft-drinks. Corn is also fertilizer-dependent, and right now the feedstock for fertilizer is petroleum. I think biofuels is a viable alternative (and not the only), but we need to pick another source and think back to Otto Diesel’s idea of heavier biofuels in his engine.
I thought about that after I had posted it. If a helpful mod passes by, could you kindly change the word “ethanol” to “biofuels” in my tittle to make it a little more obvious what this is about?
The homebrew supply store I frequent posted a note on the door a few weeks back warning patrons to expect something like a 30 to 60% increase in the price of malt starting this fall.
Their suppliers are upping their prices that much, and they have no choice but to pass it down the line.
They claim though that the effect is more because there is more and more corn going into ethanol production so less corn being used to make corn syrup and some places are turning to alternative sweeteners like malt.
Back on point - flour/bread prices have been steadily going up here too - coupled with bad growing seasons due to weather effects. Which might be on the increase via ACC. So there might be less viable farmland, with an increase in the demand for it? The future, she not look so bright anymore.
So ethanol can supply about 15% of our current fuel needs. That seems like a substantial amount, and well worth pursuing. Combine that with improvements in fuel economy, and measures to reduce car usage, wouldn’t that be enough to become one of the several mainstream fuel sources? (I imagine electric cars would be another.)
