The Straight Dope

Go Back   Straight Dope Message Board > Main > The Game Room

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
  #101  
Old 02-28-2008, 01:45 PM
Really Not All That Bright Really Not All That Bright is online now
Guest
 
Join Date: May 2003
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ellis Dee
As a secondary Jets fan, I'm drooling over the prospect of Michael "The Burner" Turner wearing Green, and would wholly endorse paying him big money. I'd much rather have Turner than Darren McFadden, who I see as the worst possible cross between Adrian Peterson and Reggie Bush.
You already had Michael Turner. His name was LaMont Jordan, and you let him walk in free agency.

Don't expect big things from Turner. Tatum Bell averaged over 5 YPC as a backup too, y'know.

More importantly, I'm willing to bet Kevin Smith outperforms every other rookie running back this season, assuming he gets drafted by a team that actually needs a back.

Led the nation in carries, yards and touchdowns and set the #2 all-time mark for rushing yardage - and he wasn't even a Doak Walker finalist. F**k you, SMU.

Quote:
There are some draft analysts that think Mendenhall will be a better pro back than McFadden due to body size/structure.
Meaningless. On that basis, the Eagles will cut Brian Westbrook tomorrow to free up the cap room to sign Duce Staley. Hell, Butch Davis coached Clinton Portis, but passed on him in the draft to take William Green - because he didn't think Portis was big enough to handle the cold-weather conditions in Cleveland.
Portis, for those of you who forgot, was Rookie of the Year - in Denver.

Last edited by Really Not All That Bright; 02-28-2008 at 01:49 PM.
Reply With Quote
Advertisements  
  #102  
Old 02-28-2008, 01:54 PM
Least Original User Name Ever Least Original User Name Ever is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Sep 2005
I'm willing to take you up on that Kevin Smith thing, by the way.
Reply With Quote
  #103  
Old 02-28-2008, 01:57 PM
Jimmy Chitwood Jimmy Chitwood is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Mar 2003
Well, for my part, you can count me as one of the few here who thinks the best back in this year's draft is... Darren McFadden.
Reply With Quote
  #104  
Old 02-28-2008, 02:07 PM
Really Not All That Bright Really Not All That Bright is online now
Guest
 
Join Date: May 2003
Quote:
Originally Posted by Least Original User Name Ever
I'm willing to take you up on that Kevin Smith thing, by the way.
Okay. Shall we say winner gets to pick the loser's new username?
Reply With Quote
  #105  
Old 02-28-2008, 02:24 PM
Weirddave Weirddave is offline
BANNED
 
Join Date: Apr 1999
Location: Republic of Marylandistan
Posts: 9,900
Quote:
Originally Posted by Diomedes
Thank you for making this Browns fan's day just a little bit merrier.
You're welcome, but he's a much better QB than DA is. If Boller had been your QB, with the line and receiving talent y'all have, you'd have made the playoffs last year.
Reply With Quote
  #106  
Old 02-28-2008, 02:44 PM
Least Original User Name Ever Least Original User Name Ever is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Sep 2005
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jimmy Chitwood
Well, for my part, you can count me as one of the few here who thinks the best back in this year's draft is... Darren McFadden.

Law of averages. Not very often does the consensus number one back come out and crush it that first year. Oh, a rookie running back has the best chance to succeed in the pros out of any other rookie position, but I'd put my money on a "lesser" back.
Reply With Quote
  #107  
Old 02-28-2008, 02:44 PM
Really Not All That Bright Really Not All That Bright is online now
Guest
 
Join Date: May 2003
Quote:
Originally Posted by Weirddave
You're welcome, but he's a much better QB than DA is. If Boller had been your QB, with the line and receiving talent y'all have, you'd have made the playoffs last year.
I see you guys have the good crack up in Baltimore.
Reply With Quote
  #108  
Old 02-28-2008, 02:45 PM
Least Original User Name Ever Least Original User Name Ever is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Sep 2005
Quote:
Originally Posted by Really Not All That Bright
Okay. Shall we say winner gets to pick the loser's new username?

Well, I can't really top yours....


I kid. That works for me.




Of course, what do we base it on? Yardage? Win/loss record of team? Total touchdowns?
Reply With Quote
  #109  
Old 02-28-2008, 02:53 PM
Really Not All That Bright Really Not All That Bright is online now
Guest
 
Join Date: May 2003
Quote:
Originally Posted by Least Original User Name Ever
Of course, what do we base it on? Yardage? Win/loss record of team? Total touchdowns?
Hmm...

Offensive Rookie of the Year voting? If no RB gets any votes, we call it a push...

Otherwise I'd say total yards from scrimmage.
Reply With Quote
  #110  
Old 02-28-2008, 03:06 PM
Weirddave Weirddave is offline
BANNED
 
Join Date: Apr 1999
Location: Republic of Marylandistan
Posts: 9,900
Quote:
Originally Posted by Really Not All That Bright
I see you guys have the good crack up in Baltimore.
Yea, I know. You hate Kyle Boller. You've been saying it for years. I get it.


You're flat out wrong though. Boller is a better QB than DA. Put him on a team that (last year) had a better line the Ravens, with a better TE (Heap was out all year) and talented #1 WR (instead of young #2s with upside and old #2s with experience and not much else) and I'm telling you he gets the Clowns to the postseason. I spent the whole season watching not the QB (any of them) but the play around them. If you do that it becomes crystal clear when the main problem was with the '07 Ravens, and it isn't named Kyle, Steve or Troy.
Reply With Quote
  #111  
Old 02-28-2008, 03:10 PM
Least Original User Name Ever Least Original User Name Ever is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Sep 2005
Quote:
Originally Posted by Really Not All That Bright
Hmm...

Offensive Rookie of the Year voting? If no RB gets any votes, we call it a push...

Otherwise I'd say total yards from scrimmage.

That's about as good as any. I like the yards from scrimmage.
Reply With Quote
  #112  
Old 02-28-2008, 03:30 PM
Really Not All That Bright Really Not All That Bright is online now
Guest
 
Join Date: May 2003
Quote:
Originally Posted by Weirddave
Yea, I know. You hate Kyle Boller. You've been saying it for years. I get it.


You're flat out wrong though. Boller is a better QB than DA. Put him on a team that (last year) had a better line the Ravens, with a better TE (Heap was out all year) and talented #1 WR (instead of young #2s with upside and old #2s with experience and not much else) and I'm telling you he gets the Clowns to the postseason. I spent the whole season watching not the QB (any of them) but the play around them. If you do that it becomes crystal clear when the main problem was with the '07 Ravens, and it isn't named Kyle, Steve or Troy.
Dude, I said it once. In 2004. How the hell did you remember that? I had to search to figure out what you were talking about, and even then I didn't remember that thread until I got to page 2ish and the "monkeys flinging poo" part.

Quote:
That's about as good as any. I like the yards from scrimmage.
If he doesn't start a game, it's a push, fair?

Last edited by Really Not All That Bright; 02-28-2008 at 03:31 PM.
Reply With Quote
  #113  
Old 02-28-2008, 03:48 PM
Least Original User Name Ever Least Original User Name Ever is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Sep 2005
Quote:
Originally Posted by Really Not All That Bright
<snip>

If he doesn't start a game, it's a push, fair?
I'd say so. So, for the bet to be valid, he has to start at least one game and also have more total yards from scrimmage than any other rookie running back, yes?
Reply With Quote
  #114  
Old 02-28-2008, 03:50 PM
Weirddave Weirddave is offline
BANNED
 
Join Date: Apr 1999
Location: Republic of Marylandistan
Posts: 9,900
Quote:
Originally Posted by Really Not All That Bright
Dude, I said it once. In 2004. How the hell did you remember that? I had to search to figure out what you were talking about, and even then I didn't remember that thread until I got to page 2ish and the "monkeys flinging poo" part.

Hehe. Wanna know how I remembered that? I thought "Boy, what an appropriate user name (WRT your opinion of Boller)" and it's stuck for 4 years. You made an impression!
Reply With Quote
  #115  
Old 02-28-2008, 04:07 PM
Really Not All That Bright Really Not All That Bright is online now
Guest
 
Join Date: May 2003
Quote:
Originally Posted by Least Original User Name Ever
I'd say so. So, for the bet to be valid, he has to start at least one game and also have more total yards from scrimmage than any other rookie running back, yes?
Well, for the bet to not be cancelled, he has to start a game (since I did say if he goes to a team that actually needs a back)... and for me to win, he has to have more yards from scrimmage than any other rookie tailback (or fullback, I suppose).

I was going to ask for it to be a push if he gets hurt in week 2 or something, but one of his selling points is that he's never been seriously injured.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Weirddave
Hehe. Wanna know how I remembered that? I thought "Boy, what an appropriate user name (WRT your opinion of Boller)" and it's stuck for 4 years. You made an impression!
Maybe I wouldn't mind losing this bet to LOUNE, then...

I still think you were being the dick in that thread, not me.... but on the other hand I was wrong about Boller getting benched midseason (although with 13 total TD passes on the year, maybe that says more about Billick than Boller).

Plus, I definitely believe Boller gives the Ravens a much better shot to win than what's left of Steve McNair. Troy Smith I haven't seen enough of yet.
Reply With Quote
  #116  
Old 02-28-2008, 06:27 PM
Ellis Dee Ellis Dee is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Jul 2003
Quote:
Originally Posted by Least Original User Name Ever
They're not really all that often injured. Hell, the worst combination of two very good running backs can't be bad. I just don't get the comparison, that's all.
I meant "combine the promise of Peterson with the letdown of Bush."

I expect him to be a good back, which is why I phrased it as the worst possible combination of a great back and an above-average back. I don't expect him to be a great back, so I very much don't want the Jets to spend a top 10 pick on him.

Gang Green hasn't had the best track record with top 10 picks of late. Dewayne Robertson (#4 overall) is about to be cut because Mangini can't grasp the 4-3, and D'Brickashaw Ferguson (also #4 overall) isn't looking particularly worth his contract.

The last thing I want is another great NCAA talent picked way too high based on potential and promise only to be "decent" in the pros. That's the main reason I'm so thrilled that Big Blue picks last; late first rounders seem to turn into better picks, like Aaron Ross for the G-Men or Nick Mangold, the Jets center they took later in the same round they got Ferguson. While Mangold isn't setting the league on fire either, he's looked better than Brick.

I wouldn't mind trading up with Miami to get Ryan. I was a big fan of Kellen Clemens until I saw him play. ("The backup quarterback is always the most popular guy in town.")
Reply With Quote
  #117  
Old 02-28-2008, 07:31 PM
Least Original User Name Ever Least Original User Name Ever is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Sep 2005
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ellis Dee
I meant "combine the promise of Peterson with the letdown of Bush."

I expect him to be a good back, which is why I phrased it as the worst possible combination of a great back and an above-average back. I don't expect him to be a great back, so I very much don't want the Jets to spend a top 10 pick on him.

Gang Green hasn't had the best track record with top 10 picks of late. Dewayne Robertson (#4 overall) is about to be cut because Mangini can't grasp the 4-3, and D'Brickashaw Ferguson (also #4 overall) isn't looking particularly worth his contract.

The last thing I want is another great NCAA talent picked way too high based on potential and promise only to be "decent" in the pros. That's the main reason I'm so thrilled that Big Blue picks last; late first rounders seem to turn into better picks, like Aaron Ross for the G-Men or Nick Mangold, the Jets center they took later in the same round they got Ferguson. While Mangold isn't setting the league on fire either, he's looked better than Brick.

I wouldn't mind trading up with Miami to get Ryan. I was a big fan of Kellen Clemens until I saw him play. ("The backup quarterback is always the most popular guy in town.")

That makes a lot more sense.


I'm not high on any of the quarterbacks in this draft. I like Josh Johnson, but more as an athlete or a project than someone that's NFL ready. Maybe the one I like most is Joe Flacco, with regards to being NFL ready. I'm kinda digging Brian Brohm too, but I fear that he's a system quarterback. I think Colt Brennan might make himself look better than people originally thought.


By the way, your running back comparison is much better now. thanks for clearing it up.
Reply With Quote
  #118  
Old 02-28-2008, 07:45 PM
Ellis Dee Ellis Dee is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Jul 2003
Quote:
Originally Posted by Least Original User Name Ever
I'm not high on any of the quarterbacks in this draft.
Thank god I'm first and foremost a Giants fan, because not only do I agree that the quarterbacks in the draft aren't any great shakes, and not only do I think the free agents available are also crap, but I don't think the quarterbacks the Jets already have are any good either.

If they traded up to get Ryan, at least I could tell myself that they see something in him and it will be worth it. Eli is only worth the trade made to get him because of his Superbowl MVP; if he'd won it without distinguishing himself, then it still wouldn't have been worth it when Accorsi could've just drafted Ben and been done with it.

But that trade moved the Giants up from #4 to #1. Moving up from #6 to #1 for Ryan strikes me as a really bad idea, since I don't see any QB in the draft or free agency as being anyone more special than Alex Smith.

Speaking of Alex Smith, are there any 49ers fans here who can talk about the extension Smith just got? I wasn't stunned by the news only because I don't really care about the '9ers. But I was as surprised as you get. I have him pegged as a David Carr / Tim Couch type bust.
Reply With Quote
  #119  
Old 02-28-2008, 11:01 PM
SenorBeef SenorBeef is online now
Charter Member
 
Join Date: Aug 2001
Location: Las Vegas, NV
Posts: 20,691
And..... free agency!

Rumor that the Packers are trading Corey Williams to the Browns tonight. Interesting.

Last edited by SenorBeef; 02-28-2008 at 11:06 PM.
Reply With Quote
  #120  
Old 02-28-2008, 11:07 PM
Least Original User Name Ever Least Original User Name Ever is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Sep 2005
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ellis Dee
Thank god I'm first and foremost a Giants fan, because not only do I agree that the quarterbacks in the draft aren't any great shakes, and not only do I think the free agents available are also crap, but I don't think the quarterbacks the Jets already have are any good either.

If they traded up to get Ryan, at least I could tell myself that they see something in him and it will be worth it. Eli is only worth the trade made to get him because of his Superbowl MVP; if he'd won it without distinguishing himself, then it still wouldn't have been worth it when Accorsi could've just drafted Ben and been done with it.

But that trade moved the Giants up from #4 to #1. Moving up from #6 to #1 for Ryan strikes me as a really bad idea, since I don't see any QB in the draft or free agency as being anyone more special than Alex Smith.

Speaking of Alex Smith, are there any 49ers fans here who can talk about the extension Smith just got? I wasn't stunned by the news only because I don't really care about the '9ers. But I was as surprised as you get. I have him pegged as a David Carr / Tim Couch type bust.
Now, now, now. Let's not go sucking each other's dicks just yet. I'm REALLY not sold on Eli yet. Let's see if he can follow it up with a solid season.

I think Martz likes Alex Smith. That's why there's the extension. If you recall, Martz came into Detroit and they got rid of Joey Harrington.
Reply With Quote
  #121  
Old 02-28-2008, 11:14 PM
SenorBeef SenorBeef is online now
Charter Member
 
Join Date: Aug 2001
Location: Las Vegas, NV
Posts: 20,691
Anderson turned down a 3 year deal with 20m with 10m guaranteed. Really crazy, unless there's been some tampering and he knows there's interest in him.

He could be trying to hit UFA next year but since he may not even be the starting QB this year, this leaves the possibility that he knows a team will be willing to give him a big contract and compensate the Browns for him.

Also, GMs and by extension knowledgable fans way overvalue draft picks. The rumor is Corey Williams to the Browns for a late 2nd rounder. People were objecting to giving up the pick.... if you could find someone as good as Corey Williams at that pick, you'd be really happy - so why not just take Williams?
Reply With Quote
  #122  
Old 02-29-2008, 01:04 AM
Ellis Dee Ellis Dee is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Jul 2003
Quote:
Originally Posted by Least Original User Name Ever
Now, now, now. Let's not go sucking each other's dicks just yet. I'm REALLY not sold on Eli yet. Let's see if he can follow it up with a solid season.
It doesn't matter what he does in the future, he won a Superbowl. He's already a New York immortal alongside Phil Simms. I'm not saying he's a top 5 QB yet; I'm saying that he has proven to be worth the trade that brought him to New York.

Tell me you wouldn't trade two 1sts plus a 3rd and a 5th if it would bring the Lions a Lombardi trophy.
Reply With Quote
  #123  
Old 02-29-2008, 07:40 AM
Hamlet Hamlet is online now
Guest
 
Join Date: Feb 2000
Quote:
Originally Posted by SenorBeef
Also, GMs and by extension knowledgable fans way overvalue draft picks. The rumor is Corey Williams to the Browns for a late 2nd rounder. People were objecting to giving up the pick.... if you could find someone as good as Corey Williams at that pick, you'd be really happy - so why not just take Williams?
I heard that too. They still have to work out a long term contract, but I can't imagine that would be problem.

I think the trade is one of those that is a win/win/win. For Corey, he gets a fat new contract and the adulation (and pressure) of being a vital cog to a team. (but he does have to leave beautiful Green Bay for *ugh* Cleveland). For the Browns, they get a young, very good lineman to shore up their horrible run defense. He can also get to the passer from the inside pretty well also. And giving up only a second rounder, is pretty good price. They are taking a risk, because I think the contract is going to be pretty hefty for a guy who has only 20 starts in 4 years. But he is a hard worker, if a bit flaky. For the Packers, they get a second rounder for a guy who plays at a position the team has some pretty good depth and who was gotten in the 6th round originally. It's a bit of a risk, because of Pickett's age and Jolly's injury, but they drafted Justin Harrell in the first round last year and they have Jenkins who can play inside too. They generally rotate DT's, so the loss of Williams, even though he's good, isn't a killer. And now they don't have to overpay for him.

I think if the Browns don't mind a bit of overspending and the Packers avoid injuries on the defensive line, it's a good trade for everyone.
Reply With Quote
  #124  
Old 02-29-2008, 08:06 AM
Hamlet Hamlet is online now
Guest
 
Join Date: Feb 2000
Is there any team in the NFL more effed up than the Oakland Raiders?

I ask because of their latest move was to sign DT Tommy Kelly to a record breaking $50.5 million dollar contract, with $18.5 million guaranteed, making him the highest paid defensive lineman in the NFL. Which leaves only one question.

Who the fuck is Tommy Kelly?

Never recorded over 70 tackles a season.
Never recorded over 5 sacks a season.
Went undrafted in 2004.
Has only played one full season.
Is coming off a torn ACL that ended his season last year.
Even when healthy and starting, the Raiders were 25th against the run.
Has never been to a Pro Bowl.
Meanwhile, the Raiders leader in sacks is a free agent.


Oh Raiders. When will you ever win?
Reply With Quote
  #125  
Old 02-29-2008, 08:56 AM
Really Not All That Bright Really Not All That Bright is online now
Guest
 
Join Date: May 2003
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hamlet
Oh Raiders. When will you ever win?
When Al Davis retires/dies, and not before.

I'm not that surprised about the Anderson deal. The only quarterback in recent memory who's managed to keep a first-rounder on the bench for more than two seasons is Brett Favre - and I think Anderson knows he isn't Brett Favre.

Much better to get a long-term deal with $10+ million guaranteed somewhere else; tell me the Falcons or Bears won't pony up more than $20 million for him.

Quote:
Tell me you wouldn't trade two 1sts plus a 3rd and a 5th if it would bring the Lions a Lombardi trophy.
I know I would. Hell, we sent the Raiders more than that for Jon Gruden - two 1st rounders, two 2nd rounders, and $8 million.
Reply With Quote
  #126  
Old 02-29-2008, 10:47 AM
furt furt is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Apr 1999
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ellis Dee
It doesn't matter what he does in the future, he won a Superbowl. He's already a New York immortal alongside Phil Simms.
I have a feeling you're going to be having a lot of heated discussions with fellow NYG fans in the years to come. As happy as I was for Eli to be able to shove it in the face of all his critics, I have a feeling that from now on he's going to dealing with even more unrealistic expectations.


And Really Not All That Bright, I think you're making a "wish" bet. I was at every UCF home game and I'm a big fan, but I'd be stunned if Kevin Smith has a huge rookie year. Keep in mind that this is a guy only 3 years removed from being a high school DB, and has spent that time as the feature back in an I-formation offense. NFL coaches are going to be very cautious about having that guy be the only thing between their franchise QB and a blitz.

He's likely going in the middle rounds to a team that already has a solid #1; throw in the fact that he does not have return skills, and I think you run the real risk of him getting one or two starts via injury, but not getting on the field the rest of the season.
Reply With Quote
  #127  
Old 02-29-2008, 10:49 AM
Least Original User Name Ever Least Original User Name Ever is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Sep 2005
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ellis Dee
It doesn't matter what he does in the future, he won a Superbowl. He's already a New York immortal alongside Phil Simms. I'm not saying he's a top 5 QB yet; I'm saying that he has proven to be worth the trade that brought him to New York.

Tell me you wouldn't trade two 1sts plus a 3rd and a 5th if it would bring the Lions a Lombardi trophy.

I'd make that trade if I were getting that defense. The defense is what did it in the Super Bowl, not Eli. Again, I hope I'm wrong and I hope Eli makes the leap and gets rid of his inconsistencies. We need more good quarterbacks in the league.
Reply With Quote
  #128  
Old 02-29-2008, 10:52 AM
furt furt is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Apr 1999
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hamlet
Is there any team in the NFL more effed up than the Oakland Raiders?
Sweet God, it must suck to be Raider fan these days.
Reply With Quote
  #129  
Old 02-29-2008, 10:58 AM
Really Not All That Bright Really Not All That Bright is online now
Guest
 
Join Date: May 2003
Quote:
Originally Posted by furt
And Really Not All That Bright, I think you're making a "wish" bet. I was at every UCF home game and I'm a big fan, but I'd be stunned if Kevin Smith has a huge rookie year. Keep in mind that this is a guy only 3 years removed from being a high school DB, and has spent that time as the feature back in an I-formation offense. NFL coaches are going to be very cautious about having that guy be the only thing between their franchise QB and a blitz.
Eh?

They ran plays out of the shotgun at least 25% of the time - including rushes. I'd say, if anything, that blitz pickup is one of his strengths. If he has a weakness it's running pass patterns - I don't think I saw him run anything other than flares and short screens last season.

Also, I get that he wasn't playing against "top tier" competition most of the year (although remember he put 150 yards on Texas), but C-USA was much better last season than it was a couple years back when DeAngelo Williams was in serious contention for the Heisman.
Reply With Quote
  #130  
Old 02-29-2008, 11:29 AM
furt furt is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Apr 1999
Quote:
Originally Posted by Really Not All That Bright
They ran plays out of the shotgun at least 25% of the time - including rushes. I'd say, if anything, that blitz pickup is one of his strengths. If he has a weakness it's running pass patterns - I don't think I saw him run anything other than flares and short screens last season.
Yes, they ran plays from the shotgun -- and as you correctly point out many of them were runs, not passes; moreover many of the passes were play-action out of the gun, basically the WV/Oklahoma spread stuff that's the rage now in college football. (and which, BTW, I think we'll see a even more of at UCF in the next couple years) You don't have those offenses in the NFL. You do see a lot of Bill Walsh stuff, and that's very different from what UCF ran.

Quote:
Also, I get that he wasn't playing against "top tier" competition most of the year (although remember he put 150 yards on Texas), but C-USA was much better last season than it was a couple years back when DeAngelo Williams was in serious contention for the Heisman.
I didn't mention the level of competition; I don't think that's a big issue, except insofar as it affects his draft status. Statistically, though, C-USA was much, MUCH worse vs. the run last year that 2 years ago. I think there were something like 4 teams that ran for 200 per game.

Last edited by furt; 02-29-2008 at 11:29 AM.
Reply With Quote
  #131  
Old 02-29-2008, 11:29 AM
FoieGrasIsEvil FoieGrasIsEvil is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: The Nasty Nati
Posts: 13,535
Quote:
Originally Posted by Weirddave
You're welcome, but he's a much better QB than DA is. If Boller had been your QB, with the line and receiving talent y'all have, you'd have made the playoffs last year.
But for Carson Palmer and the gang, of course.
Reply With Quote
  #132  
Old 02-29-2008, 11:52 AM
Really Not All That Bright Really Not All That Bright is online now
Guest
 
Join Date: May 2003
Madieu Williams will sign a big contract with the Vikings...
http://frontier.cincinnati.com/blogs...th-vikings.asp

WTF? How do you expect to upgrade a piss-poor pass defense using players from another piss-poor pass defense? The Vikings had the best group of safeties in the league the last two years and still couldn't stop anyone. So, they let Dwight Smith go and he signed with the Lions for peanuts... and now they're giving a guy who isn't as good $33 million...

That said, I absolutely cannot understand why the Vikings are so bad at defending the pass. They have spent tons of money acquiring very good players and yet their pass defense has been consistently terrible. I realize that everyone passes against them because the run defense is so good but they play Cover-2 most of the time...

furt, I would be stunned if 24K doesn't go before the 3rd round. Of course, his draft stock will depend a good deal on how good his 40 time at the Combine is, but I think 4.5 or better is likely- he ran a 4.48 as an HS senior. Also, he did play safety in high school, but only during his senior year - he was the starting tailback during his sophomore and junior years.

The pundits seem to agree with me, mostly:
http://www.nfldraftdog.com/2008_nfl_...evin_smith.htm
http://www.nfldraftscout.com/ratings...php?pyid=56551
http://www.thefootballexpert.com/kev...ile080001.html
http://cfn.scout.com/2/719789.html

Remember, he wasn't some sort of "system" guy. The UCF offense is set up to feature short passing; Smith was getting 40 carries a game by midseason only because our pass offense was so weak.

By way of comparison, Daunte (Culpepper)'s numbers were system-based. His NCAA-record 70% career completion percentage was based mostly on the fact that he hardly ever threw a pass downfield. I love Daunte, but I'm firmly convinced that his early success in the NFL had a good deal to do with throwing to Randy Moss and Cris Carter, and less to do with his ability.

I'll go so far as to say I think KS is a better NFL prospect than Culpepper, and I think he may end up being a better NFL player than Asante Samuel, too.
Reply With Quote
  #133  
Old 02-29-2008, 12:06 PM
Really Not All That Bright Really Not All That Bright is online now
Guest
 
Join Date: May 2003
Quote:
Originally Posted by furt
I didn't mention the level of competition; I don't think that's a big issue, except insofar as it affects his draft status. Statistically, though, C-USA was much, MUCH worse vs. the run last year that 2 years ago. I think there were something like 4 teams that ran for 200 per game.
Williams didn't play last year, though - his last season was '05.
Reply With Quote
  #134  
Old 02-29-2008, 12:25 PM
Really Not All That Bright Really Not All That Bright is online now
Guest
 
Join Date: May 2003
Quote:
Originally Posted by Really Not All That Bright
Williams didn't play last year, though - his last season was '05.
Whoops. Misread your post.

Anyway, C-USA total rushing yards per game for 2005-2006: 1862.6, or 155.22...

...and for 2007-2008: 2,036.8, or 169.67 per team.

Difference in YPG per team: 14 and a bit. So, okay, I'll give you that one.

Still, Williams' production wasn't quite as good even if you tack 14 extra yards per game onto his totals (2,200 to 2,457, and Smith scored 30 total touchdowns to Williams' 19).

All of which is a very long-winded way of saying that if Williams is good enough to start for the Panthers, Smith ought to be too. (Williams ran a 4.49 at the Combine, which should be right around what Smith runs).
Reply With Quote
  #135  
Old 02-29-2008, 12:45 PM
furt furt is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Apr 1999
Quote:
Originally Posted by Really Not All That Bright
I'll go so far as to say I think KS is a better NFL prospect than Culpepper, and I think he may end up being a better NFL player than Asante Samuel, too.
hey, I hope you're right; I hope he goes in the first round, wins ROY, and goes to Canton. And I do think that long-term he's an excellent prospect, very possibly the best UCF player ever in the pros. Some of the backs he reminds me of did very well in the NFL -- Terrell Davis being the foremost

My point was just that with all of the stuff that I mentioned above, I'm not sure how well he's going to do, statistically, this year, which is what your bet is. I see him being taken in round 3 by someone like Cleveland or Arizona, who need depth and a future at RB, but who do have a clear #1 to start the season (much the way Williams was in Carolina).

Last edited by furt; 02-29-2008 at 12:47 PM.
Reply With Quote
  #136  
Old 02-29-2008, 01:26 PM
Least Original User Name Ever Least Original User Name Ever is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Sep 2005
Quote:
Originally Posted by furt
hey, I hope you're right; I hope he goes in the first round, wins ROY, and goes to Canton. And I do think that long-term he's an excellent prospect, very possibly the best UCF player ever in the pros. Some of the backs he reminds me of did very well in the NFL -- Terrell Davis being the foremost

My point was just that with all of the stuff that I mentioned above, I'm not sure how well he's going to do, statistically, this year, which is what your bet is. I see him being taken in round 3 by someone like Cleveland or Arizona, who need depth and a future at RB, but who do have a clear #1 to start the season (much the way Williams was in Carolina).


....Well...I don't!
Reply With Quote
  #137  
Old 02-29-2008, 01:51 PM
Really Not All That Bright Really Not All That Bright is online now
Guest
 
Join Date: May 2003
Quote:
Originally Posted by Least Original User Name Ever
....Well...I don't!
I wouldn't either. I've got some really horrible choices for your new name lined up
Reply With Quote
  #138  
Old 02-29-2008, 02:00 PM
Least Original User Name Ever Least Original User Name Ever is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Sep 2005
Quote:
Originally Posted by Really Not All That Bright
I wouldn't either. I've got some really horrible choices for your new name lined up

Hey! Don't make me start brainstorming!

I might come up with a light drizzle...
Reply With Quote
  #139  
Old 02-29-2008, 02:09 PM
Really Not All That Bright Really Not All That Bright is online now
Guest
 
Join Date: May 2003
Derek Anderson just re-signed with the Browns, sez the radio.
Reply With Quote
  #140  
Old 02-29-2008, 02:44 PM
Least Original User Name Ever Least Original User Name Ever is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Sep 2005
The Lions might trade Shawn Rogers for Marcus Stroud.
Reply With Quote
  #141  
Old 02-29-2008, 03:33 PM
SenorBeef SenorBeef is online now
Charter Member
 
Join Date: Aug 2001
Location: Las Vegas, NV
Posts: 20,691
Well, I can guarantee you there's never been so much rage for resigning a first year starting QB who made the pro bowl, nearly broke team records for TDs, and is 24 years old... especially from a fanbase who haven't seen good quarterbacking in 20 years.

They were so sure he was gone it was fun to hate on him, I guess. I wonder what they do now, grind their teeth for a few years or soften up?
Reply With Quote
  #142  
Old 02-29-2008, 03:35 PM
Least Original User Name Ever Least Original User Name Ever is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Sep 2005
Or "stop whining". That's always good too.
Reply With Quote
  #143  
Old 02-29-2008, 03:41 PM
Really Not All That Bright Really Not All That Bright is online now
Guest
 
Join Date: May 2003
Quote:
Originally Posted by SenorBeef
Well, I can guarantee you there's never been so much rage for resigning a first year starting QB who made the pro bowl, nearly broke team records for TDs, and is 24 years old... especially from a fanbase who haven't seen good quarterbacking in 20 years.

They were so sure he was gone it was fun to hate on him, I guess. I wonder what they do now, grind their teeth for a few years or soften up?
Were Browns fans ripping him?

I'd take him for my team in a heartbeat.
Reply With Quote
  #144  
Old 02-29-2008, 04:35 PM
SenorBeef SenorBeef is online now
Charter Member
 
Join Date: Aug 2001
Location: Las Vegas, NV
Posts: 20,691
Yeah, before the Cinci game there was a sizable minority of "Quinn can do no wrong, Anderson sucks" people, but after the Cinci game it seemingly went from 20% of people to 80%.

Anderson is disliked by most, hated by a sizable minority, and there's a big meltdown that we resigned him.

That may not represent the average fan - this is among the relatively more hardcore fans of theobr.com message board I hang out on.


Anderson has some huge flaws. He started out strong and got worse as the year wore on which I admit is worrisome. Quinn has also looked absolutely excellent in very limited playing time. So I can see why one would prefer Quinn. What I can't see is absolute hatred for a guy who went 10-5 and very nearly 11-4 as a first year starter on a team with a bottom 5 defense.

I do think Anderson is overpaid substantially, though. But I'm not going to melt down about it and throw hate beams the guys way and try to destroy team chemistry by being part of the angry mob that hates the potential leader of our team.
Reply With Quote
  #145  
Old 02-29-2008, 04:53 PM
SenorBeef SenorBeef is online now
Charter Member
 
Join Date: Aug 2001
Location: Las Vegas, NV
Posts: 20,691
I will add that I wanted a legitimate QB competition in training camp next year. Will there be now? Probably not. I can't imagine the team will have an 8 million dollar a year backup unless he's clearly massively outperformed.

I'd rather have tendered DA with the highest tender. If someone signs him and gives a first and third, that's fine. If not, we have a legit QB competition, if DA wins and does well, we can either resign him or franchise him next year.
Reply With Quote
  #146  
Old 02-29-2008, 05:09 PM
Least Original User Name Ever Least Original User Name Ever is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Sep 2005
Maybe I didn't watch enough of the Brows, which is completely possible, but I'm not getting the hate.


You guys knew Joey Harrington sucked when he was on the Lions, right?
Reply With Quote
  #147  
Old 02-29-2008, 05:17 PM
Really Not All That Bright Really Not All That Bright is online now
Guest
 
Join Date: May 2003
Quote:
Originally Posted by SenorBeef
Quinn has also looked absolutely excellent in very limited playing time. So I can see why one would prefer Quinn.
That... that's a joke... right?

Quote:
2007 Att 8 Comp 3 % 37.5 Yards 45 TD 0 Int 0 Long 18 Rating 56.8
He looked quite good in the preseason, I suppose, but if you're willing to bet the farm on him based on a couple of preseason games, I have a bridge over here I think you'll love...
Reply With Quote
  #148  
Old 02-29-2008, 05:34 PM
Really Not All That Bright Really Not All That Bright is online now
Guest
 
Join Date: May 2003
Here are Derek Anderson's stats for last season:
Comp 298 Att 527 % 56.5 Yards 3,787 Avg. 7.2 TD 29 Int 19 Rating 82.5
And by way of comparison, Carson Palmer's first year as the starter:
Comp 263 Att 432 % 60.9 Yards 2897 Avg. 6.71 TD 18 Int 18 Rating 77.3
Or Ben Roethlisberger's rookie season:
Comp 196 Att 295 % 66.4 Yards 2,621 Avg. 8.9 TD 17 Int 11 Rating 98.1
And the first-year stats of another quarterback who's done pretty well for himself, and may be the best comparison given where Anderson was drafted*:
Comp 264 Att 413 % 63.9 Yards 2,843 Avg. 6.9 TD 18 Int 12 Rating 86.5

Aside from his completion percentage, Anderson's stats are comparable to or better than all of them.

Were I a Browns fan, I'd be thanking every possible deity in sight that Phil Savage traded away Charlie Frye instead of Anderson.





*Tom Fucking Brady - drafted in Round 7, Anderson drafted in Round 6.

Last edited by Really Not All That Bright; 02-29-2008 at 05:34 PM.
Reply With Quote
  #149  
Old 02-29-2008, 06:45 PM
Hal Briston Hal Briston is offline
Charter Member
 
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: A nice chunk o' NJ
Posts: 13,683
As much as I'm still laughing at him for blowing what would have been the game-sealing INT in the Super Bowl, I'm not happy that my Giants will now have to contend with Asante Samuel twice each season.

Is it too much to hope that Philly continues to be the place where talented players go to become washed up?
Reply With Quote
  #150  
Old 02-29-2008, 08:00 PM
SenorBeef SenorBeef is online now
Charter Member
 
Join Date: Aug 2001
Location: Las Vegas, NV
Posts: 20,691
Quote:
Originally Posted by Really Not All That Bright
That... that's a joke... right?
Nope.

Quote:
He looked quite good in the preseason, I suppose, but if you're willing to bet the farm on him based on a couple of preseason games, I have a bridge over here I think you'll love...
I'm not willing to bet the farm on him for that - that's why I liked the idea of retaining both quarterbacks unless substantial value was offered in trade.

Of course 8 regular season passes aren't enough to judge him by - although I will say this, two of those passes hit receivers once in the chest and once in the hands, and one of those would've been a touchdown pass, so stats of (guessing, based on memory) 5/8 75 yards 1 td would've looked better.

His first two preseason games were against third and fourth stringers, true, but he made the right decisions, looked nearly perfect, and still made some remarkable throws. The first and second team offenses with Frye and Anderson looked completely inept, whereas when Quinn was in there everything came alive and looked efficient.

In the third preseason game, the most "realistic" one so to speak, Quinn played against Denver's first stringers and played remarkably well. He made 3 absolutely beautiful passes and none were bad. There was a 38 (IIRC) yard touchdown that was called out of bounds but really wasn't. They didn't challenge it because (I suspect) Romeo had no intention of the holdout kid coming in and starting - he's notoriously slow to give rookies playing time on offense - and he didn't want him to look that good. His stats for that game, if you include that TD pass, were something like 9/13 140 yards 2 TDs or something.

People overplay how useless the preseason is. They act like you can take nothing from it. I agree that you shouldn't try to read whether or not you won or lost a game as meaningful, but there's some meaning to be found in how your players play...... otherwise why would they have the preseason at all?

We also get lots of reports from training camp on the message board - a lot of it very knowledgable from people who know football well from coaching it at some level or other knowledgable people.

IMO, they should've signed Anderson to the tender. This 3 year big contract negatively impacts a legitimate QB competition. I think Quinn will ultimately end up being the best QB, but unlike the rest of the world apparently, I don't think it's a bad thing to have too much talent at QB.
Reply With Quote
Reply

Bookmarks

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is Off
HTML code is Off
Forum Jump


All times are GMT -5. The time now is 08:06 PM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.7.3
Copyright ©2000 - 2013, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.

Send questions for Cecil Adams to: cecil@chicagoreader.com

Send comments about this website to: webmaster@straightdope.com

Terms of Use / Privacy Policy

Advertise on the Straight Dope!
(Your direct line to thousands of the smartest, hippest people on the planet, plus a few total dipsticks.)

Publishers - interested in subscribing to the Straight Dope?
Write to: sdsubscriptions@chicagoreader.com.

Copyright © 2013 Sun-Times Media, LLC.