I think I’m as excited about the 2009-2010 season as I’ve ever been about an NBA season before!
First off, my Lakers won, and they are projected by most to be favorites to defend the title. But more than that, so many contenders upgraded or made changes that I’m really excited to see play out! I don’t remember an offseason in recent memory where pretty much all of the previous year’s contenders made significant moves, and most of them for the better.
Basing the contenders off of last season’s performance, the top 5 or 6 teams have certainly reloaded for the most part.
Lakers pretty much swapped out Ariza for Artest, which, depending on what you believe, will either be a huge upgrade in defense or a ball-hogging menace. Either way, the team will do well, the trade probably won’t be really felt until the Western Conference Finals. The important thing is that Odom resigned!
Hard to believe the old Spurs finally made significant moves to get younger and get their big 3 some help to keep them healthy. Jefferson’s a great pickup and seemed to me to have come out of nowhere, and McDyess and Ratliff will help them match up with the size of the Lakers. I don’t really remember Bowen, Oberto, or Thomas doing much to help the Spurs last year, so their loss will probably not sting as bad. If they had been healthy, I don’t think they’d lose to Dallas last year and will definitely not lose to them this year.
Boston’s significant move is acquiring Wallace. I think that based on how well Marbury behaved last year (behaved, not played), Wallace won’t be some team-wrecking headcase. He might even be motivated to play well! The unknown makes it exciting! 
They did lose another perimeter scorer and defender in Powe just like they did last year with Posey. With a healthy KG though, I don’t see them dropping off too much from the top tier.
Magic switched out Turkeyglue for Carter, which is sort of an improvement but they also lost some valuable bench guys like Battie and Lee. The addition of Bass, Barnes, and crazy white boy Jason Williams might make up for it though. At least there won’t be a controversy about who’s supposed to be the starting point guard now. Again, all of these unknowns on a contender makes it really exciting to see how they will do!
Of course the Cavs got Shaq. I’m still in the camp of people who think Shaq can still play better than most of the centers in the league even at his advanced basketball age so I am really looking forward to see how the Cavs will improve. Some might say his lane clogging will hurt James’ production, but James is such a good player that I think he will make up for it in other areas. Plus, they got him for almost nothing, giving away Ben Wallace and Sasha Pavlovic. Add to that mix 3 players acquired in trades to bolster their perimeter defense and the Cavs may improve on their amazing 66 wins from last year. Certainly I think their weaknesses from last season are plugged.
I put Denver down here because I think that losing some key bench players like Kleiza and Jones makes them weaker this year than last year. Plus, like the Hornets of a year ago, everyone will know this isn’t a team to sleep on and they will have a target on their backs.
Some teams on the cusp of being top tier make some really interesting moves too. Dallas beat a weakened San Antonio team but wasn’t a match for Denver. However, I think Shawn Marion will be energized like he hasn’t been since he played with Nash, and will return to form. Plus, on the Mavs, there’s no question who’s leader so his team-killing chemistry from the end of his last Suns season should be minimal. Gaining Gooden and Thomas makes up for the loss of Bass, so I expect Dallas to be better than last year and maybe take over the Nuggets spot as the surprise team out West that makes a big splash in the playoffs.
Due to injuries to Yao and McGrady’s undependableness, the Rockets, I think, will be in the lottery. Usually that wouldn’t really make a team one to watch, but since they stole Ariza away from us, I’m curious to see if his breakout last season was a fluke and if we’ll regret letting him go for Artest.
The Clippers haven’t been exciting for a while (or is it just the beginning of every season in which they are expected to do well only to become…well…the Clippers?) but if they can avoid injuries, which they probably can’t, they should be at least watchable. I still don’t see them anywhere near the playoffs in the tough Western Conference, but they might scare a few teams here and there.
I don’t think the Heat did much and the players they did move (getting Richardson and losing Moon) I don’t know too much about. Even if Wade has another terrific season, I don’t see them making any challenges to the top of the East. The curious thing this season will be how Wade deals with a 0.500 team and if he’ll stay for next year. I think if Riley wants to keep him, he’ll have to do a major trade either before the season opens or before the trade deadline in February.
Wow, the Hornets. So much expectations from their run two years ago but sooooooooo injured last year. But from all accounts, Okafor is an improvement over Chandler and a salary dump, so it would be interesting to see if Paul can will the team into contention like he did a couple years ago. I don’t know anything about Butler so I don’t know how that affects them. However, I remember that one big reason they couldn’t beat the Lakers 2 years ago was because of their horrid bench. I don’t suppose this will help that. Plus, the website says they lost Pargo who I thought played for some Russian or Euro team? But whatever, as long as they can be relatively healthy, I think that makes them a team that can do some damage in the playoffs.
The Blazers didn’t lose anyone of significances and added Andre Miller. I don’t care how he’ll mesh in with Roy, by the way, I just know that they got a decent player for a good price. With no Rockets standing in their way next year, they might gulp face the Lakers! And we all know the Lakers can’t win in Portland :smack: I think this team is poised to take another giant leap into the top of the West.
Normally I wouldn’t be too excited to see the Jazz. They are a decent team, but I haven’t usually expected them to be the surprise team out West. However, Carlos Boozer will be greedily playing for a max salary during this contract year, so I think he will make the Jazz better than 8th place fodder like last year.
Ok the Wizards really sucked last year, but they are essentially getting Gilbert Arenas. It was only a few years ago that they were in the playoffs so if that knee is repaired, and with their 2 new additions from the Timberwolves, I think they will surprise a lot of people and have a huge 25+ game turnaround from last year.
Here’s how I see the playoff seeding for next year:
West
- Lakers
- Spurs
- Blazers
- Mavs
- Hornets
- Nuggets
- Jazz
- Warriors
Rockets are gone, barring a miracle recovery by McGrady. If he’s back though, I would expect them to be in the playoffs and not the Warriors. The Clippers won’t graze the playoffs through win/loss record, but they will move up in the standings at least 3 places (since they were next-to-last last year, there’s nowhere to go but up!)
East
- Cavs
- Magic
- Celtics
- Hawks
- Pistons
- Heat
- Wizards
- Bulls
I think the Bulls did too little and the Raptors might not have done enough. If Arenas is healthy I expect them to make the playoffs. Elton Brand has been a bust in Philly and he won’t have Miller to give him the ball anymore, so they’re out of the playoffs. I think the Raptors might either be a barely-there playoff team or a surprise: something like the 6 or 7th seed. I flipped a coin and they got the shaft.