Hot Stove League

The Game Room
1

With only 98 days remaining until pitchers and catchers report to spring training, I feel it’s high time to fire up the hot stove league. I’ve got a couple of points that I’d like to open with:

  1. MLB should amend its current replay system so that more plays are eligible for review. These would not include balls and strikes, mainly close plays at a base, plays involving the foul line, and whether or not a ball was caught or trapped.
  2. MLB should follow the NFL’s system of revenue sharing. This would be better for the game as a whole, and it’d be nice to see some smaller market teams actually have the ability to compete for a title.
    An alternate suggestion (which is pure fantasy) is to scrap the 2 leagues as they are, and make tiers as they do with football leagues in Europe; the bottom 2 teams of the upper league drop down the following season, and the top 2 teams of the lower move up.
2

One of the reason NFL-style revenue sharing doesn’t work so well is because the big teams have their own networks, if I understand the system correctly.

3

I agree, but would suggest a system whereby the manager must ask for a replay on plays that AREN’T home run-related plays, and gets only, say, two requests per game (plus another if the game goes into extra innings.)

MLB cannot have a revenue sharing system the way the NFL does for the simple reason that MLB doesn’t get its money from the same places.

The NFL has a revenue sharing system the way it does because most of its revenue comes from a national television contract; the differences between teams in gate receipts are not very great, and there is no difference at all in local TV revenue because there isn’t any such thing. MLB generates the great majority of its money from local TV revenue and the gate.

Asking the NFL franchises to share the national TV revenue is easy because it’s the only logical way to do it anyway. Asking MLB teams to share the money they individually generate is problematic because you’r taking away their incentive to make all that money.

As has been pointed out in other threads, there is no evidence this helps the matter of competitive balance. In the English Premier League it’s the same four teams, again and again, at the top of the league; Manchester United, Chelsea, Liverpool, and Arsenal. Not since 2004-2005 has it been different, when Liverpool finished all the way down in… fifth. It’s substantially more IMBALANCED than Major League Baseball.

In MLB, small market teams have a chance; they’re not as good as the Yankees, but they CAN win, as evidenced by Florida, Tampa Bay, or St. Louis (a small market by any reasonable definition, and yet nobody notices they usually make the playoffs.)

4

No instant replay in MLB, please. The NFL has replay to make the gamblers happy and to take the possibility of a referee fix out of the question. I don’t want a Wednesday night game to take 4 hours because of endless red flag challenges.

5

That was true in the NFL once upon a time, too. But the league had enough statesmen with their long-term joint interests in mind to put the system in place that now prevails, that other leagues have copied. Baseball does not and never has - even the ineffective luxury-tax system barely passed.

I agree with the OP’s first 2 points, but US pro sports are too different structurally, and the nation is too large geographically, for a relegation system to work even if it were a good idea.

6

I’m all for instant replay. Wins and losses and individual statistics should always be most ideally be decided by player performance. To whatever degree of accuracy player performance can be recorded and measured, it should be. There’s no virtue in intentional ignorance.

And I say this as a Royals fan who very well knows that Don Denkinger blew the call in game 6 of 1985.

7

Which is why I feel that there will be a finite # of challenges per game (2, maybe 3 per team).

8

I’m not a fan of instant replay in most cases. I think the current set-up is fine, as HR disputes are important enough to warrant review and rare enough so as to make the delays tolerable. However, instituting replay for the more routine plays just adds too much standing around and doing nothing to a sport that already has more than enough of it. It’s not just the time spent on the reviews themselves, either. It’s also the time wasted by teams considering whether or not to challenge. There’s no play clock in baseball, so every call that *might *be wrong will be followed by either the pitcher or batter being told to stall while the manager waits for word from the clubhouse (or, if nothing else, hems and haws and asks if anyone got a real good look at it). Fuck it, let’s go.

Also, while I’m sure that this will be an unpopular opinion, I’m ok with a little bit of uncertainty here. The runner beat out the throw to first by two one-hundredths of a second? Alright then, I think it’s fine if he’s only earned the right to be safe 80% of the time, as it’s an extremely close play. If he wanted the right to be safe 99.9% of the time, he should’ve been half a step faster. If you think of it as players earning *equity *in safe/out and fair/foul calls (instead of every action being either a success or failure, with nothing in between), then the lack of replay is hardly any problem, and all you’re left with is the time saved by not instituting it.
Now, if they absolutely **must **expand replay (and my sense is it that will happen), they need dedicated replay officials. None of this “manager walks out to the umpire, chats for 15 seconds, umpires congregate, walk back to the clubhouse, emerge 90 seconds later with a decision” nonsense. There should be a guy inside with a TV screen who gets buzzed ASAP and who has maybe 30 seconds to overturn the call. Like I said before: fuck it, let’s go.

9

I am not in favor of expanding Instant Replay. I would prefer that MLB shakes up the umpire supervisors and switch to a system that puts better umps into the post season and provides more training. Bang-Bang plays are bang-bang plays and they tend to balance out, but certain umps are just inexplicably poor and need to be retired. I think many just need fundamentals reinforced in training. Especially calling a consistant strike zone and how to line up to get the best read on a developing play.
Here is my take on the Yankees situation:

The Free Agent list looks thin.

I would bring back Andy Pettitte for 1 more year as you cannot have too much pitching and one year contracts do not hurt the Yankees.

I would pursue a trade with Houston with our young spare parts for Super Two Arbitration eligible Hunter Pence. He has some pop and appears to be a good fielder with a great arm.

The Astros have holes and age everywhere and their farm system is not great at the moment. We can offer them a selection of players from a list that includes Cervelli (C), Romine (C), Laird (3b), Pena (SS/UT), Shelley Duncan (RF/1b), Juan Miranda (1b), Ian Kennedy (SP), Brian Bruney (RP), Kei Igawa (SP), Ivan Nova (SP), Jonathan Albaladejo (RP), Edwar Ramirez (RP) or even Chad Gaudin (SP). Stats for these prospects.

Most of these are spare parts or bench players. I know Kei is not worth much, nor Duncan but like many of the others are major league ready in theory. I would only give up one of Cervelli, Romine, Pena or Kennedy.

Assuming we do not pull off a trade, I would offer Matsui and Damon one year deals and take back only one of them. I am leaning toward Matsui but Damon plays the field. Both put up really good numbers. My hopes would be that Matsui could play 30 games in left and 80 as DH and give us a great bat of the bench for 50 games. This still lets Posada drop to 100 games at catcher and 55 as DH and leaves 25 games for A-Rod as DH. Basically once a week. Assuming Cervelli is not traded I would let Molina walk but offer him a really good minor league deal to be a play coach at whatever level Montero is at. He is the big power hitting catcher prospect that could use all the instruction Molina could give him. I would have Pena be one of our utility men. He plays 2b,ss,3b & OF. I would consider bringing Hairston back but I am not worried about it.

For the starters this gives us CC Sabathia, AJ Burnett, Andy Pettitte and then Joba, Phil Hughes, Wang, Gaudin & Kennedy competing for two spots. Ideally Wang and either Hughes or Joba would win the spot and the other would be in the bullpen. Gaudin would be our long guy and Kennedy would return to Scranton for seasoning.

Rivera, Joba or Hughes, Robertson, Marte, Phil Coke, Gaudin would be the bullpen with one spot open for a large number of people.

So I see no reason to pursue Jason Bay, John Lackey or Matt Holliday. They will all get big contracts and are not really great fits. Keep in mind that Austin Jackson could be on the team and starting in Center by June. We could use a right fielder, a left fielder is useless except on a one year contract. Ideally either by trade or Jackson pushing Melky to Right, Swisher takes over left. The infield of course is set and set for several years.

10

How is the system set up right now? Is it a rotational basis for the playoffs, but selected umpires for the Series? Whatever it is, it’s obviously in need of tinkering.

I really like Cervelli, and thought that he did an outstanding job back in May, when he got some significant time.

11

What I have heard is despite the struggle to gain control of the Umpires, the league offices have down little with it and got some of the worse umps off the field by promoting them to desk jobs where they are failing in the training mission.

The postseason rotation system is terrible and appears to be the first thing MLB will be doing away with. But Bob DuPuy very recently said they will be overhauling the umpire system. It was on the radio so I can’t quote it, but here is one small piece:

Does anyone know much about Hunter Pence? He is the Super-Two arbitration eligible Right Fielder for the Houston Astros and appears by stats to be a solid and improving hitter with a great arm. Houston has so many holes and money issues that I think he could be traded for in the right deal. How good is he? Do you think his power numbers will improve?

Congrats to the AL Gold Glove winners:
Position PlayerTeam
C Joe MauerTwins
1B Mark TeixeiraYankees
2B Placido PolancoTigers
3BEvan LongoriaRays
SS Derek JeterYankees
OFTorii HunterAngels
OF Adam JonesOrioles
OFIchiro SuzukiMariners
PMark BuehrleWhite Sox

League managers & coaches vote on the Gold Glove winners now. They cannot vote for players on their own team. The votes were of course in at the end of the regular season.

12

Yes to more instant replay. I don’t think there is any reason that it has to be a time consuming process. Just have someone in the press box with the ability to overrule a close call. No need to get into challenges or slow walks by the umpire to the dugout or anything else. Just because the NFL has a lousy replay system doesn’t mean that there is only one way to do it.

Small markets can compete and do so consistently, so I fail to see #2 as a major problem. There is this assumption that the NFL has more competitive balance than baseball, but the numbers don’t really play that out. If anything baseball’s problem isn’t that teams can’t compete, but rather one is playing on a different level.

Pence is a guy that if you just saw him swing you would be amazed he ever got the ball out of the infield. His batting stance is a don’t try this at home approach, but it works for him. He overachieved as a rookie and underachieved in 2008, but I think 2009 is a pretty good account of his skill. A good player, but not a great one.

That said your trade offers are pretty much radio talk show caller level insanity. There is a reason that they are called “spare parts.” Sure some of them have a little value, maybe Kennedy can be a decent 5th starter in the NL, and Cervalli is a servicable young catcher, but for the most part those are the type of guys that you can get as mfrom the rule 5 draft, as minor league free agents, from waivers, and throughout your organization already. Those aren’t guys you trade a quality young outfielder for. Granted Houston’s system is worse then most, but I doubt they would consider a trade that didn’t include Hughes or Joba. Pence won’t be that expensive for a while even as a super two, and Houston isn’t exactly a small market team. They aren’t going to be in any hurry to unload him. Quality over quantity every time.

Gutierrez got robbed. There were other questionable decisions there, but that one is the most egregious.

13

Gold Gloves almost always seem to require time of service, players have to build a rep and thus why bats so often affect Gold Glove consideration. I agree he is GG caliber and will eventually get his Gold Gloves.

As to Instant Replay expanding, the GMs have shot it down. This and most teams looking to spend less is the big news out of the Chicago Hilton GM meetings.

14

The economy will impact a lot of teams. The Yankee advantage will get bigger. Rumor is the Tigers will cut payroll. They can not likely sign Polanco. They are stuck with a few bad financial decisions of the past like Willis. They will need a new shortstop. They have cut Thames already.
I like replay. The calls should be correct, however long it takes.

15

Even the Yanks will be cutting payroll, but if you mean it will affect them less, I agree.

16

2022 MLB Baseball Free Agent Tracker - Major League Baseball - ESPN Here is the free agent tracker.

17

Rodney the Detroit closer will be available. Huff was a huge disappointment, he is also available.

18

I wouldn’t say “egregious”. Hunter’s numbers are not much different than Gutierrez when it comes down to it (other than games played, which is a difference of about 40). Gutierrez gets to .25 more balls per game than Hunter does. Both are better than league average (Gut by .57 more, Hunter by .32 more).

On the other hand, Elvis Andrus got to a full 1.03 more balls per game than Jeter did. Elvis was .72 more balls better than league average. Jeter was .25 balls WORSE than league average. *That *is egregious.

19

Joe Posnanski today

"Dewan plus/minus numbers:

Ichiro: +21 plays above average
Torii: +8
Adam Jones: -20

Yes, that would be -20 for Adam Jones. Maybe you don’t buy that at all. I understand. Here are their Ultimate Zone Ratings:

Ichiro: +10.5 runs above average
Torii: -1.4
Adam Jones: -4.7

Yes, with UZR, Torii AND Adam Jones scored negative numbers … again, you might call total bull on that. And I understand, I really do. You might simply know, in your heart, that Hunter is still as great as he ever was out there and that Adam Jones is a defensive dynamo. But now I’m going to show you the Dewan plus/minus and the UZR for another outfielder. You already know who this is: Franklin Gutierrez.

Dewan: +43
UZR: +29.1

Do me a favor, no matter how you may feel about defensive numbers: Just look at those again. Compare them. Please? Everyone here knows I love these stats, but even if you think they are irreparably flawed — could they be THAT WRONG? His plus minus is SIXTY THREE PLAYS better than Adam Jones. His UZR suggests he saved more than THIRTY RUNS more Torii Hunter. Could they be that wrong?

Well, obviously, I don’t think so. I spent some time watching these players … I ended up watching quite a few Seattle games last year. There is little doubt in my mind that Frankllin Gutierrez was every bit as good as the numbers suggest, and that he was a much, much, much, much better defensive player than any of the three, including Ichiro who I think had a terrific defensive year. That’s not a knock. Gutierrez had a monster defensive year. A near-legendary defensive year.

And numbers aside, my own scouting aside — people who watched him play thought that too. I probably heard from five or six scouts/executives this year who said that they saw Gutierrez play and thought he was a phenom out there. Of the 10 voters in the Fielding Bible, eight picked Gutierrez the best centerfielder in all of baseball, not just the AL. Bill James picked Chris Young No. 1 and Gutierrez No. 2 — I think that was just Bill being argumentative. Hal Richman picked Gutierrez third."

Simply put if your goal is to reward the best defensive players, and you fail to reward a guy who had the best defensive season in the game, your award is pretty worthless. These advance stats say Jeter was an above average ss. He wasn’t as good as Andrius, but the margin was a whole lot closer than Gutierez and the field.

20

Whoops - I thought Gold Glove was broken out by outfield position, and didn’t think to look beyond Torii Hunter for CF. Jones was not good.

Where can you get UZR numbers from?