Can North Korea enter the 21st century successfully

Great Debates
1

Assume that a successor of Kim Jong Il is picked and he turns out to be a reformer like another Deng Xiaoping or another Khrushchev. And this leader wants to implement democratic, human rights, civil rights, market and infrastructure reforms. Not necessarily turning the nation into a first world democracy overnight, but serious reforms aimed at limiting the power of the military and government and expanding the power and rights of individuals.

My understanding of North Korea is that the military is still conservative, so would attempts at reform just result in a coup and a return to the old rule, the same thing that almost happened to Gorbachev or that Mao tried to do when he was marginalized in the 1960s?

Would attempts at reform be so destabilizing to the country that it will collapse? I have read that the North Koreans keep the population subjugated by lying about the outside world, pretending it is a miserable planet full of dictatorships. When North Koreans find out en masse and are allowed to publicly discuss how much better off the rest of the world is, what would happen? I know the shock of finding out a deep secret like ‘your father is a pedophile’ has got to be tough, but what happens when an entire nation gets a psychological shock that heavy all at the same time?

Also North Koreans seem to have been deeply psychologically traumatized by the famine of the 1990s, the human rights abuses as well as chronically malnourished. Plus the pace of modern life would probably totally confuse many of them. So it seems the entire nation would be made up of emotionally unsound citizens (due to all the trauma they experience) who are also experiencing serious cognitive limitations due to malnourishment. I have read that among refugees who escape into South Korea, there is a risk of a permanent underclass of North Koreans because the rates of mental illness and physical illness are much higher, they are unable to cope with fast paced modern life and lower intelligences (due to childhood starvation) make them unable to function as well. So it seems the entire north korean nation is likely to be far more mentally unstable, unfit to cope with modern life, emotionally damaged, physically sick than their neighbors.
http://papercolours.blogspot.com/2009/02/national-geographic-what-darwin-didnt.html

compared with the average South Korean, North Koreans are markedly less educated and skilled. Having experienced years of malnutrition and the pain of seeing family members die of starvation, many suffer from serious physical and mental illnesses… hence the danger of “becoming a permanent underclass”… they crave a sense of belonging. “Most South Koreans are indifferent to their plight and to not have your suffering recognized is an almost unbearable form of violence.”

  • Tom O’Neill

So even if a Gorbachev, Xiaoping, etc. does show up and institute serious reforms like demilitarization, human rights and civil rights reforms, market reforms, infrastructure advances, etc. Are the North Korean people capable of handling life in the 21st century? Or would all of the psychological problems and physical illnesses due to years of oppression and famine make them unable to cope?

Would this take 30+ years because an entire generation needs to be born that will be protected from malnourishment, severe emotional trauma and oppression as well as given a fast paced environment to learn to function in?

ie, even if a reformer comes up, will it take 20-30 years before a nation of physically and mentally healthy North Korean citizens are born and raised who are capable of really making their country work?

2

At a guess, it’ll take roughly twice as long as it’s taken to culturally reunify the two Germanys, a process arguably not complete even now, 20 years later.

3

No.

Flatly.

Our 2 possibilities are:

  1. War with the South/Japan/The US/China/Russia/Some or all of the above.
  2. A Failed State–like Somalia.
4

Not as such. When the region currently known as North Korea finally gets with the program, it will be by re-uniting with South Korea. What remains to seen is whether this process will be a peaceful one.

5

Does a significant portion of South Korea want to reunite with the North? If the Tom O’Neill quote is accurate and the South is unconcerned with their well-being, might they also consider the prospect of unification more trouble then its worth.

6

I’ve heard the South is trying to prop up the North because they know if the North fails and is integrated into the South, it will cost the South trillions of dollars to repair the damage done to the North by the Kims.

The Kim Jong Il regime needs money to bribe people and enough natural resources to keep the country going at a basic level, and my impression is South Korea is willing to give those things with few strings attached.

7

Sure, it’ll happen in October of 2122.

8

I would also assume that there are certain sectors of the government that benefit from having an enemy only a few miles away.

9

At the very least, the minefield and other fortifications across the DMZ might slow down the flood of refugees heading south when NK finally collapses.

10

They are all going to head to China and cause problems there, which is why China is also trying to keep the NK government going.

11

I’m having trouble seeing a downside to this.

12

What’s the upside? What benefit does the destabiilzation of China do anyone? More people for China to use Draconian measures against?

13

Makes me feel better.
I’m basically concerned over who will be the economic powerhouse of the 21st century.

14

I doubt the fate of NK is going to make any difference there.

15

The BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China). According to Goldman Sachs by 2050 they will have economies bigger than the US and EU combined.

They also say Mexico will have an economy 2x the size of France or Germany in 2050.

16

Well, if they can be even a minor nuisance directed against China, I’ve no objection.

17

Aside: I wonder what that’ll do to the good old fashioned “illegal immigrant problem”?

18

According to Goldman Sachs by 2050 per capita GDP in the US will be 92k/yr and 63k/yr in Mexico. Germany will be 68k.

19

The generation that had any ties with North Korea (as in, had living relatives that they personally knew) is almost dead. The younger generation has a vague sense of brotherhood that’s been passed down but is no longer eager to reunify. We feel bad for them but we really don’t want them to be our problem (as opposed to the previous generation, who felt more of a sense of responsibility towards the North). I remember seeing on some documentary that we don’t even have a proper system in place to aid the handful that we have taken in. (And by handful I do mean a very small handful.)

20

eventually China will eat DPRK up and bring their people to a relevant standard of living and productivity. Not very high, but not very low either.