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  #1  
Old 05-19-2010, 11:43 AM
Moriarty Moriarty is offline
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Did Lee Harvey Oswald have an escape plan?

If you accept as a given (as I do) that the evidence is overwhelming that Lee Harvey Oswald killed JFK, and that there is no credible evidence that Oswald was operating as part of a conspiracy, then the question remains, what was Oswald planning to do next?

The President's trip wasn't finalized until just prior to it's occurence, and the motorcade route was decided just days before. So, Oswald couldn't have planned the murder long in advance. But, he had just recently returned fro Mexico, so he was prepared for travel.
Is there any evidence of a plan to escape, or was this basically just a "going out in a blaze of glory" suicide mission. If there was a plan, then ending up hiding in a movie theater seems kind of lame. If he was just acting on a desparate whim, then why did he give himself up, and never confess to the crime?
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  #2  
Old 05-19-2010, 12:12 PM
XT XT is offline
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From what I recall he basically just dropped the gun after the shooting and tried to leave the building. Perhaps he figured he could just slip away in the confusion (a not completely unfounded supposition). He might have simply been counting on the fact that if he could get clean away from the scene that there wouldn't have been enough evidence to find him afterward, or that he could have gone to ground. I don't think he was counting on getting caught, or going out in a blaze of glory, since he doesn't seem to have tried to do that in any case.

My guess is that this was mostly an impulsive act on his part, and that he didn't really think it through all the way like you see people in the movies doing. He had it in mind to shoot someone (from memory he actually had several people in mind at various times), the opportunity presented itself to him, and he took it.

-XT
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Old 05-19-2010, 12:28 PM
scabpicker scabpicker is offline
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I really think the extent of his plan was to see a movie, then look into getting a ride home. He'd tried to shoot at a general a few days before. Afterward, he went home. His experience in the Marines and Russia make me think he really did not seem to plan very well.
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  #4  
Old 05-19-2010, 12:29 PM
Gray Ghost Gray Ghost is offline
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Both of my suppositions presuppose that Oswald thought he had a bit of help. Of course, it could just be that he was a loser who worked himself up to shooting at the President, and once that was done, had no further goal and drifted in a daze until shooting Officer Tippit. And after that, had a breakdown and looked for the nearest dark hole he could find, the Texas Theater, a 1/2 mile away. That seems entirely possible, and I stress, is the most likely solution. While there were a LOT of peculiarities surrounding the JFK assassination (For one, how does the same guy who blows the shot at General Walker, make two hits on a ~70 yd. moving target within a few seconds?) I find it most likely that Oswald acted alone. To me, any activities smelling of coverup were the result of stress-induced incompetence and the perceived need for rapid finality in the investigation.

If however, you think that Oswald thought he had help, then for me it depends if you believe Garrison's allegations that two other people shot Tippit. If you disbelieve Garrison---as most people do---and think Oswald shot Officer Tippit, then retrace Oswald's path between his room at 1026 N. Beckley, to Tippit's death at 10th Street near Patton Avenue. If you extend the path a little further, it sort of points to the Dallas Zoo. I can see the Zoo being a decent spot for a meet with Oswald walking to the Zoo as fast as he could, thinking he was going to meet his handler, get a fake ID/passport, cash, transport, that sort of thing. Shooting Tippit causes Oswald to wig out/think he's been set up, and run to the theater.

If you believe Garrison, then "other people" shot Tippit while Oswald is sitting fat, dumb, and happy in the Texas Theater. Either he's killing time or he's having the meet in the Theater. I don't buy this at all, given that Oswald tried to get into the Theater without paying---what better way to act low-key? Further, he acted so furtively and guilty on the way to the Theater that a shoe store manager, Johnny Brewer, noticed and decided to follow Oswald. All that says to me that Oswald was acting on adrenaline and wasn't thinking, just like someone would be acting if they'd just shot a Dallas policeman.

So to sum up, he was in a daze from shooting JFK, went home, figured out that was a dumb place to be, and was wandering around until Tippit runs into him. Or, if you're conspiracy-minded, he was hoofing it to make his meet at the Dallas Zoo, until Tippit runs into him...
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  #5  
Old 05-19-2010, 02:14 PM
BobLibDem BobLibDem is offline
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I sincerely doubt he had a plan. I think his best bet would have been to stay in the building and act as shocked as anyone else. Of course, they probably would have traced the gun shipment to him eventually but I bet it might take a few days, in which time he could have made an unhurried exit to Cuba or something.
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  #6  
Old 05-19-2010, 02:20 PM
Ludovic Ludovic is offline
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No, but Dillinger did.
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  #7  
Old 05-19-2010, 02:32 PM
XT XT is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Gray Ghost
(For one, how does the same guy who blows the shot at General Walker, make two hits on a ~70 yd. moving target within a few seconds?)
I don't really know how difficult a shot the General Walker thing was, but the shot on the president was relatively easy (and, IIRC, he actually missed the first shot in any case). It was basically a very small deflection angle, and the target was moving away from him (not side to side)...pretty easy for someone who had been trained as a rifleman, let alone a sharp shooter. As for the few seconds thing, again, not really all that difficult to get off those shots with that rifle in that time frame...much less difficult than some CT advocates of the assassination make it.

My guess as to the answer to this question is that the General Walker shot was either more difficult or had some other constraint (time perhaps), plus there is the blind squirrels and nuts factor (i.e. he got lucky, if that's the right term, in the shot on the President).

-XT
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  #8  
Old 05-19-2010, 02:44 PM
ivan astikov ivan astikov is offline
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Alternatively, JFK was getting far too popular, and was beginning to stick his nose in places he shouldn't, so members of the US shadow government decided to utilise one of the many malcontents under their watchful eyes.
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  #9  
Old 05-19-2010, 02:50 PM
XT XT is offline
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Alternatively redux, it could have been space aliens using mind controlling mutant dust mites to infiltrate Lee's brain and make him do it because JFK was on the verge of launching a government investigation into cattle mutilation and abductions (both very lucrative to our space alien lizard overlords).

The thing is, both have about as much actual supporting evidence, so I'm going to stay with the first option, that being the lone nutball explanation...which is neither here nor there where this OP is concerned.

-XT
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  #10  
Old 05-19-2010, 03:09 PM
Don't Call Me Shirley Don't Call Me Shirley is offline
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The Walker shot was deflected by the window and fragmented. Some of the fragments hit Walker's arm.

This is my speculation on Oswald's plan: he had recently tried to get to Cuba through Mexico City, but was blown off by officials there. Perhaps he thought they would take him more seriously if he went back and told them he had assassinated Kennedy. So he may have had a vague plan to go back to Mexico.

He did have a very short time to plan. He always read day-old papers at work because he was too cheap to buy one. He therefore saw the motorcade route on November 21 and asked his coworker for a ride to the house where his wife was staying. The next morning his coworker picked him up to take him back to work and he had the "curtain rods" wrapped in blankets.
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  #11  
Old 05-19-2010, 03:54 PM
Bryan Ekers Bryan Ekers is online now
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Sure, he planning to escape - escape into the award-winning film-making of Burt Topper.
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  #12  
Old 05-19-2010, 03:57 PM
ivan astikov ivan astikov is offline
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Originally Posted by xtisme View Post
Alternatively redux, it could have been space aliens using mind controlling mutant dust mites to infiltrate Lee's brain and make him do it because JFK was on the verge of launching a government investigation into cattle mutilation and abductions (both very lucrative to our space alien lizard overlords).

-XT
Why do some people do this thing where they compare something that is possible with some extremely unrealistic scenario, and think they are making some sort of valid point?

Now, if you'd said that JFK was considering full disclosure of all US intelligence regarding ufo's and that was the reasoning for getting rid of him, at least you wouldn't be talking complete rubbish.
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Old 05-19-2010, 04:00 PM
begbert2 begbert2 is offline
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Originally Posted by ivan astikov View Post
Why do some people do this thing where they compare something that is possible with some extremely unrealistic scenario, and think they are making some sort of valid point?

Now, if you'd said that JFK was considering full disclosure of all US intelligence regarding ufo's and that was the reasoning for getting rid of him, at least you wouldn't be talking complete rubbish.
The valid point is that "US shadow governments" are complete rubbish too.
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  #14  
Old 05-19-2010, 04:03 PM
XT XT is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ivan astikov
Why do some people do this thing where they compare something that is possible with some extremely unrealistic scenario, and think they are making some sort of valid point?
Well, I'm not sure. Probably for similar reasons that people think that their 'possible', though based on zero evidence, has some sort of actual relevance, and they get annoyed when someone points out that ANYTHING is 'possible'...but 'probable' is another matter. What do you think?

Quote:
Now, if you'd said that JFK was considering full disclosure of all US intelligence regarding ufo's and that was the reasoning for getting rid of him, at least you wouldn't be talking complete rubbish.
Or maybe the lizard aliens wanted JFK to reveal their presence, but he declined. It's a mystery that really doesn't matter. What actually matters is that there is exactly the same amount of actual evidence available to substantiate either the LHO conspiracy theory or the alien nano-mutant dust mites hypothesis.

-XT
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  #15  
Old 05-19-2010, 04:09 PM
Bryan Ekers Bryan Ekers is online now
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Originally Posted by ivan astikov View Post
Why do some people do this thing where they compare something that is possible with some extremely unrealistic scenario, and think they are making some sort of valid point?
You're assuming the "possible" part was established as such.
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  #16  
Old 05-19-2010, 04:43 PM
Wakinyan Wakinyan is offline
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I'm no expert on killings of kings and presidents, but I do know some about the killings of Gustavus III, Olof Palme, JFK, and, well, Wild Bill Hickok, to name a few I remember while typing, although a couple of them were neither kings nor presidents but hey guys of stature, but what I'm trying to say is that people who shoot The Man do not seem to generally have an elaborate escape plan, unless they in fact are part of a conspiracy (Anckarström). Guys like Oswald, McCall, Pettersson (who most likely killed Palme), grabbed the opportunity, hurried to kill the man, and ran away. I believe that's generally "the psychology of" the lone murderer of The Man Who Is To Blame.

In other words, I don't think Oswald thought much about it and got caught, like McCall. Pettersson, on the other hand, had the fortune of being hunted by a incompetent Swedish police force in shock, and got away with it.
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Old 05-19-2010, 04:52 PM
ChrisBooth12 ChrisBooth12 is offline
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Maybe I am reading this thread wrong but lizard people and conspiracy theories are both "possible" But isn't an Oswald/CIA connection way more "probable"
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  #18  
Old 05-19-2010, 04:54 PM
XT XT is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ChrisBooth12
Maybe I am reading this thread wrong but lizard people and conspiracy theories are both "possible" But isn't an Oswald/CIA connection way more "probable"
Not when coupled with 'were actually able to keep it a secret for more than 5 minutes'. I'd have to go with the lizard aliens by a hair, probability wise, when you consider that aspect. YMMV of course...

-XT
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  #19  
Old 05-19-2010, 05:01 PM
Sage Rat Sage Rat is offline
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Sneaking out in the milieu and going home aren't really a bad plan. You don't really need a greater get away plan than that. Oswald's problem was that after he got on the streets he appears to have been paranoid about every shadow, ticking off everyone else on the sidewalk's suspicions as he walked by. He probably went into the theater in the hopes of "losing a tail", but of course at that point he didn't actually have anyone on him at all.

He essentially did get out just fine. If he'd been able to look calm and composed, it's perfectly possible that he would have gotten away.
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Old 05-19-2010, 05:26 PM
jtgain jtgain is offline
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Originally Posted by Sage Rat View Post
Sneaking out in the milieu and going home aren't really a bad plan. You don't really need a greater get away plan than that. Oswald's problem was that after he got on the streets he appears to have been paranoid about every shadow, ticking off everyone else on the sidewalk's suspicions as he walked by. He probably went into the theater in the hopes of "losing a tail", but of course at that point he didn't actually have anyone on him at all.

He essentially did get out just fine. If he'd been able to look calm and composed, it's perfectly possible that he would have gotten away.
IIRC, didn't the police have a general description of Oswald (something like white male, 5'8", 160lbs.) and that's what led Tippett to approach him to begin with?
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  #21  
Old 05-19-2010, 05:44 PM
Moriarty Moriarty is offline
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While I appreciate those who would add heft to my thread by speculating on conspiracy theories, I specifically offered as a premise to this "debate" (it's really a question, but a speculative one about a volatile subject, so I put it here) that there is no conspiracy theory.

I should confess that my question arises as I slog my way through Vincent Bugliosi's very detailed book on the assassination, Reclaiming History, and I just finished the chapter detailing Oswald's life.

He seemed to me to be fairly meticulous (albeit delusional) in his planning, so the impulsive nature of this murder seems suprising - then again, he was given an opportunity to do something historic, with practically no notice. It was probably a "now or never" decision.

I guess I can believe those who say he thought he'd just wander out of town; given how easy he managed to escape suspicion following the attempted murder of General Walker, and I don't doubt that he had a distorted view of his ability to escape.

Then again, maybe he was hoping for a show trial, where he could rant and rave against the evills of the capitalist system, in the hopes of acheiving signifcance or fame (something he seemed to covet). If that's the case, though, then why try to get away at all?
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  #22  
Old 05-19-2010, 06:41 PM
XT XT is offline
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Originally Posted by Atomicktom
While I appreciate those who would add heft to my thread by speculating on conspiracy theories, I specifically offered as a premise to this "debate" (it's really a question, but a speculative one about a volatile subject, so I put it here) that there is no conspiracy theory.
Well, in fairness to the CTers, ones answer to the question rather hinges on whether or not someone believes there was a conspiracy or not. If not, then it's sort of a boring answer...LHO didn't really seem to have any coherent plans for escape, or even what one would consider a real solid plan for the assassination itself. I think this is what bothers CTers so much, actually...the randomness, the luck involved, the fact that one lone nutter without even a decent plan could decide almost on a whim to pick up a gun and shoot the President of the United States. People don't want to think about that, so they instead want to impose some order on a chaotic situation by inserting in mysterious covert organizations in the US that planned the whole thing, right down to the detail of LHO looking like a plan-less schlub who just got lucky.

The reality is, as most of the posters in this thread have said, that the Leester was just a barely functional loser who really didn't have a plan, just a gun and some luck.

-XT
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  #23  
Old 05-19-2010, 07:55 PM
Moriarty Moriarty is offline
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Well, in fairness to the CTers, ones answer to the question rather hinges on whether or not someone believes there was a conspiracy or not. If not, then it's sort of a boring answer...LHO didn't really seem to have any coherent plans for escape, or even what one would consider a real solid plan for the assassination itself. I think this is what bothers CTers so much, actually...the randomness, the luck involved, the fact that one lone nutter without even a decent plan could decide almost on a whim to pick up a gun and shoot the President of the United States. People don't want to think about that, so they instead want to impose some order on a chaotic situation by inserting in mysterious covert organizations in the US that planned the whole thing, right down to the detail of LHO looking like a plan-less schlub who just got lucky.

The reality is, as most of the posters in this thread have said, that the Leester was just a barely functional loser who really didn't have a plan, just a gun and some luck.

-XT
Fair 'nuff.

Even without believing in a conspiracy theory, it amazes me how incompetent the FBI and Secret Service were. The FBI knew where Oswald worked, but never thought to note the connection between the parade route and his place of employment! They missed the connection between Oswald in New Orleans (where he was protesting US intervention in Cuba) with the Texas Oswald that was pro-Soviet. It amazes me how the lack of the sort of computer database commonplace today deprived the agents of the chance to anticipate Oswald's crazy act of violence.
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  #24  
Old 05-19-2010, 08:11 PM
Frank Frank is offline
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Oswald's entire life demonstrates a complete inability to think ahead for more than five minutes at a time. No, he didn't have an escape plan.

Atomicktom, I'm not sure that even today the Secret Service would have noted Oswald as a threat. I'm not sure that he was a threat until about two days beforehand.
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  #25  
Old 05-20-2010, 06:54 AM
Markxxx Markxxx is offline
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In a way Kennedy came to Oswald, not the other way around, well sort of anyway.

This seems to be a muder of opportunity. Remember Oswald, like many people in the 60s, had self-styled himself as a poltical activist. He and others wanted and believed they could change the world. In a way Oswald, could've saw the murder of Kennedy to be a chance for his own personal mark on history and he took it.

Then he worried about how to get away with it. This is why so many murderers get caught. They don't think it through at all.
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  #26  
Old 05-20-2010, 09:02 AM
Don't Call Me Shirley Don't Call Me Shirley is offline
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He essentially did get out just fine. If he'd been able to look calm and composed, it's perfectly possible that he would have gotten away.
He was calm and composed enough immediately after the shooting to get past a police officer on his way out of the building. Officer Marion Baker confronted Oswald on the second floor but let him go after verifying through another employee that Oswald did work there.
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Old 05-20-2010, 10:49 AM
jtgain jtgain is offline
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Originally Posted by Don't Call Me Shirley View Post
He was calm and composed enough immediately after the shooting to get past a police officer on his way out of the building. Officer Marion Baker confronted Oswald on the second floor but let him go after verifying through another employee that Oswald did work there.
So lets say that after passing the officer, Oswald goes to the restroom, does what he needs to compose himself, and finishes the day (or goes home with everyone else, I doubt that many textbooks were shipped that day) and then goes home.

The next morning wouldn't he have been able to hop a plane pretty well scot-free? Or did they have an idea about him by then?
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Old 05-20-2010, 01:47 PM
Moriarty Moriarty is offline
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Originally Posted by Sage Rat View Post
Sneaking out in the milieu and going home aren't really a bad plan. You don't really need a greater get away plan than that.
I agree, but Oswald made it home, then went back out onto the streets with his revolver, whereupon he shot officer Tippet and was eventually captured. Where was he going?

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Originally Posted by Frank
Oswald's entire life demonstrates a complete inability to think ahead for more than five minutes at a time. No, he didn't have an escape plan.
This I disagree with. Oswald was delusional, but his dramatic plans were always planned out months (sometimes years) in advance. Before going to the Soviet Union, he had saved up money and read books for years, then got his mom to go along with a plan to claim hardship to get out of the Marines early, and had even enrolled in a European university to lend credibility to his student visa.

Before shooting General Walker, he had taken photos of the area, and probably had staked it out many times. He left detailed instructions for Marina, his wife, if he didn't return.

Before he went to Mexico to try to enter Cuba, he had collected press accounts and letters of his political activism, in hopes of demonstrating his commitment to the Cuban cause.

None of these were done on a whim. Sure, Oswald was a drifter who couldn't keep a job, but that reflected more on his anti-social weirdness, rather than an impulsive nature.

Killing JFK, while necessarily spur of the moment (since he didn't have much notice of the event) strikes me as out of character for Oswald, at least in terms of the time he spent getting ready for it.

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Atomicktom, I'm not sure that even today the Secret Service would have noted Oswald as a threat. I'm not sure that he was a threat until about two days beforehand.
Of course he was a threat. He had already tried to kill General Walker (although the authorities didn't know it). But, if the FBI had been aware of what information they had, then the Secret Service would have known that a pro-Soviet (and recently Pro-Cuba) malcontent was working in a building along the President's parade route. That fact alone, in more modern times, might have inspired them to change the President's route, or at least secure the building before they had a motorcade.

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Originally Posted by jtgain
So lets say that after passing the officer, Oswald goes to the restroom, does what he needs to compose himself, and finishes the day (or goes home with everyone else, I doubt that many textbooks were shipped that day) and then goes home.

The next morning wouldn't he have been able to hop a plane pretty well scot-free? Or did they have an idea about him by then?
I think the problem Oswald had was the rifle. He must have realized that he couldn't dispose of it, and must have assumed that they'd connect it to him pretty quickly. He might have also assumed that it would be obvious where he had shot from (later conspiracy theories notwithstanding), so he felt an urgent compunction to leave the scene immediately.

The more I think about it, the more I think that Oswald didn't really plan the event; as already stated, he just found out about the parade a day or so prior. But, I do think he probably envisioned himself standing trial, on a national stage, and figured that he'd be - if not exonerated - at least made into a political prisoner notorious around the world, and (in his deluded mind) made into a hero in the "Marxist" world.
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Old 05-20-2010, 01:55 PM
Dante Fevah Dante Fevah is offline
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Alternatively, JFK was getting far too popular, and was beginning to stick his nose in places he shouldn't, so members of the US shadow government decided to utilise one of the many malcontents under their watchful eyes.
I'm curious. Where did you come up with the notion that President Kennedy "was getting far too popular" and could you please explain the difference between becoming popular and becoming "far too" popular?
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Old 05-20-2010, 02:16 PM
Dante Fevah Dante Fevah is offline
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Fair 'nuff.

Even without believing in a conspiracy theory, it amazes me how incompetent the FBI and Secret Service were. The FBI knew where Oswald worked, but never thought to note the connection between the parade route and his place of employment! They missed the connection between Oswald in New Orleans (where he was protesting US intervention in Cuba) with the Texas Oswald that was pro-Soviet. It amazes me how the lack of the sort of computer database commonplace today deprived the agents of the chance to anticipate Oswald's crazy act of violence.
The "sort of computer database commonplace" pre-911, deprived the US government "of the chance to anticipate" 911. The "sort of computer database commonplace today" deprived the US government "of the chance to anticipate" the Shoe Bomber, the Underwear Bomber, and the Times Square Terrorist. These facts are not amazing. Computer databases are the new false idols.

Last edited by Dante Fevah; 05-20-2010 at 02:17 PM.. Reason: The DevNell Made Me Do It
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  #31  
Old 05-20-2010, 02:33 PM
Don't Call Me Shirley Don't Call Me Shirley is offline
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So lets say that after passing the officer, Oswald goes to the restroom, does what he needs to compose himself, and finishes the day (or goes home with everyone else, I doubt that many textbooks were shipped that day) and then goes home.

The next morning wouldn't he have been able to hop a plane pretty well scot-free? Or did they have an idea about him by then?
I think they would have figured it out pretty quickly. They found the rifle shortly after the assassination and I believe Buell Wesley Frazier, the co-worker that had given Oswald a ride to work, put the pieces together without too much trouble. He typically gave Oswald a ride home on Friday and picked him up again on Monday, but in this case Oswald asked him for a ride home on Thursday, and when he picked him up on Friday he was carrying the rifle, which he stated was curtain rods. Also, Marina Oswald stated that when she heard the president had been shot she went out to the garage where Oswald kept his rifle, and when she saw that it was gone, she knew Lee had done it.
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  #32  
Old 05-20-2010, 11:06 PM
In Winnipeg In Winnipeg is offline
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Oswald may have been told, and may have believed that there was an escape plan to evacuate him, but when it became obvious to him that he had been set up to be the patsy (as he characterized himself), he knew that there really was no escape plan.

His movements upon leaving the TSBD are those of a confused and panic-stricken individual. First he walks down Elm Street as far as Murphy Street, and then boards a bus going in the direction from which he just came, rides it two blocks as far as Lamar Street where it gets stuck in traffic, so he gets off and grabs a transfer on his way out. He then walks down Lamar as far as Commerce Street and grabs a cab, which takes him south along the Houston Street Viaduct and drops him at North Beckley Avenueand Neely Street; he backtracks on foot to his rooming house at 1026 North Beckley Avenue, where he grabs a jacket and a gun, and then again walks back past where the cab had dropped him, past Davis Street, and down Crawford as far as 10th Street. There, he turned to his left and walked as far as Patton, where he encountered patrolman Tippett. After the confrontation which led to Tippett's shooting, we are told that he fled south on Patton, turned right on Jefferson and went back toward Crawford, where he abandoned his jacket on a vacant lot, and then proceeded back along Jefferson, heading west as far as the Texas Theater, where he sneaks past the ticket clerk and hides in the darkness.

These don't seem to be the actions of someone who resolved to commit a political assassination; one would think that such a person would be somewhat calmer, especially if they were no stranger to rifles and the shooting of them, and an appreciation of the situation. It is not likely that any Marine, in full understanding of the situation, would have behaved in the way Oswald did.
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  #33  
Old 05-20-2010, 11:35 PM
Bryan Ekers Bryan Ekers is online now
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Oswald not taking a cab directly to his destination doesn't prove betrayal - he may have just not wanted to give his address to the driver (I know I wouldn't under the circumstances). He only becomes arguably panicked after he shoots Tippet, and even then, his actions aren't too erratic - he dumps a (bloodstained? distinctive?) jacket and tries to hide for a few hours. His mistake was not paying the box office clerk, calling attention to himself, though it probably wouldn't have mattered anyway.
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  #34  
Old 05-21-2010, 12:12 AM
Little Nemo Little Nemo is offline
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Oswald apparently realized, in his more rational moments, that November 22 was not just going to be another day at the office. When his wife got up on that day, she found that before going to work he had left on the kitchen table his wedding ring, financial papers like bank records and insurance policies, and a note telling her not to worry about anything that might happen that day.
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  #35  
Old 05-21-2010, 12:22 AM
In Winnipeg In Winnipeg is offline
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Hey, I'm not saying he wasn't involved -- sure he was!

But he probably believed or was led to believe that he was the only one involved, and it became apparent to him at the time of the assassination that he wasn't -- there were other shots being fired that he wasn't responsible for. It was at that time that he likely realized he was being set up, and decided to bug out.

It could very well be that the original escape plan was to flee east on Elm, but he realized that this was also a lie, so he turned around, realizing that he was on his own. His actions after that point could well be those of someone who knows now that they will have to depend on themselves to get away, because any help that was promised isn't going to be where he was told it was going to be.
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  #36  
Old 05-21-2010, 12:31 AM
Bryan Ekers Bryan Ekers is online now
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The problem is that you're creating hypotheses out of nothing. You may as well speculate that the only reason Oswald took the bus was because his Martian anti-gravity boots malfunctioned.

Last edited by Bryan Ekers; 05-21-2010 at 12:31 AM..
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  #37  
Old 05-21-2010, 12:39 AM
Little Nemo Little Nemo is offline
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The possibility of Oswald being part of a conspiracy depends on him making plans with other people. How did he do that? Oswald was married, he had a family, he worked a steady job with other people around, he traveled on public transportation. When and where was he meeting his fellow conspirators? He didn't get any mysterious messages in the mail or by phone - his wife would have noticed. He wasn't meeting with shadowy figures - again, the people around him would have noticed this.
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  #38  
Old 05-21-2010, 01:00 AM
In Winnipeg In Winnipeg is offline
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Originally Posted by Bryan Ekers View Post
...creating hypotheses out of nothing.
Nothing? The guy was a lousy shot. His rifle was a piece of crap. The scope was out of whack. He wasn't that bright, and was prone to flights of fancy.

Definitely the kind of guy I would pick to get caught while the other guilty parties got away.
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  #39  
Old 05-21-2010, 09:12 AM
Telemark Telemark is online now
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Nothing? The guy was a lousy shot. His rifle was a piece of crap. The scope was out of whack. He wasn't that bright, and was prone to flights of fancy.
Except he was the only one in the place where the shots came from, they came from that rifle, and Oswald was the one who took the shots. All the stuff you post are irrelevant hypotheticals once you look at the evidence.

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Definitely the kind of guy I would pick to get caught while the other guilty parties got away.
Except, as far as anyone can tell, there were no other parties involved. You need to show that first before you go down this route.
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Old 05-21-2010, 12:19 PM
Moriarty Moriarty is offline
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Hey, I'm not saying he wasn't involved -- sure he was!

But he probably believed or was led to believe that he was the only one involved, and it became apparent to him at the time of the assassination that he wasn't -- there were other shots being fired that he wasn't responsible for. It was at that time that he likely realized he was being set up, and decided to bug out.

It could very well be that the original escape plan was to flee east on Elm, but he realized that this was also a lie, so he turned around, realizing that he was on his own. His actions after that point could well be those of someone who knows now that they will have to depend on themselves to get away, because any help that was promised isn't going to be where he was told it was going to be.
At the risk of dooming my own thread to failure, I had hoped to raise a question about the JFK killing that didn't posit wild speculation about a conspiracy. I'm endlessly fascinated by the assassination, but have come to the confident conclusion that the official story is the one most close to the truth, and that CTs are universally based on misinformation, wild speculation, or a failure of critical thinking skills.

With the "lone gunman" as a premise, it may well be that this thread doesn't offer much in the way of debate - if he's crazy, then predicting what he had in mind is probably impossible. But, I endeavored to bring the discussion of Oswald away from the conspiracy realm, to no avail. There's already a thread open about the loony theories that are out there (and there are lots of archived threads about the same topic), so it's pretty clear to me now why the interest in the JFK assassination, even among the esteemed members of the Dope, continues to persist.

Oh well.
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  #41  
Old 05-21-2010, 12:41 PM
Bryan Ekers Bryan Ekers is online now
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Originally Posted by In Winnipeg View Post
Nothing? The guy was a lousy shot.
He went through Marine training, suggesting some degree of proficiency.

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His rifle was a piece of crap.
Was it?

Quote:
The scope was out of whack.
Was it? Are you arguing that nobody could have made the shot with that rifle? Then you have to explain what rifle was used and what happened to it.

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He wasn't that bright, and was prone to flights of fancy.
I don't know how smart John Hinckley is or Leon Czolgosz was, but neither was exactly well-grounded, either.

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Definitely the kind of guy I would pick to get caught while the other guilty parties got away.
Assuming other guilty parties exist, of course. Your evidence being...?
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  #42  
Old 05-21-2010, 02:21 PM
Little Nemo Little Nemo is offline
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Nothing? The guy was a lousy shot. His rifle was a piece of crap. The scope was out of whack. He wasn't that bright, and was prone to flights of fancy.

Definitely the kind of guy I would pick to get caught while the other guilty parties got away.
Whenever you posit some conspiracy theory, stop, take a deep breath, and then ask yourself "does this make any sense?"

Pretend you're the head of some secret conspiracy to kill the President. Your organization has selected some gunmen to do the real shooting. But you need some "patsy" to take the weight. This guy has to be set up to look like he did the shooting.

So do you pick a guy who's a lousy shot and give him a piece of crap rifle with an out-of-whack scope? Or do you pick a guy who's a crack shot and give him a top-quality rifle and scope? Remember, you want everyone to buy this guy as the shooter.

And then, while you're thinking rationally, start thinking about the conspiracy itself. For this conspiracy to have worked the way people claimed, there must have been a lot of people in on it. The Secret Service, the FBI, the CIA, the military, the Dallas police, and a bunch of other government people.

So, once again, you're the head of a secret conspiracy planning to kill the President. You have the Secret Service, the FBI, the CIA, the military, the police, and all these others in your back pocket. How do you kill the President?

Do you shoot him in the middle of a public street in Dallas? Or do you arrange for him to have a heart attack when he's sleeping in bed in the White House? Do you prefer an obvious crime that will have to be investigated or an apparent death by natural causes? Do you want to kill him in front of hundreds of witnesses or where there's nobody around except your people?

I've always said I don't understand why there's all these conspiracy theories about how JFK's death and there's never any conspiracy theories about FDR's death. It's easy to see which one looks more like the way a death by conspiracy would look.

Last edited by Little Nemo; 05-21-2010 at 02:22 PM..
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  #43  
Old 05-21-2010, 03:00 PM
Starving Artist Starving Artist is offline
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I think there are four primary reasons for the abundance of conspiracy theories. First and foremost, I think, is the fact that Kennedy appeared to have been hit from in front and to the right - in other words from the direction of the grassy knoll. This impression was heightened by the fact that photos showed people lying on the ground looking up toward the knoll, plus at least one motorcycle cop charging up it. People generally had no realistic idea of the geography involved until the advent of the internet.

Secondly, so much was screwed up in the aftermath of the shooting, with evidence missing and so forth.

Then we have the very odd shooting of Oswald, which many people feel was done in order to keep him from testifying.

And then there is the plethora of books containing much false or misleading information as to what happened that day and/or evidence itself. I recall reading a passage from one of the books (don't recall which) that claimed the wound in the back of Kennedy's head was made post mortem, a claim disputed by the doctors and others in attendance at Parkland Hospital immediately after Kennedy's assassination.

So you put all that together along with the fact that so little verifyable information was available for the average person in the days before the internet, and you have a situation ripe for the creation of endless conspiracy theories.
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Old 05-21-2010, 04:36 PM
jtgain jtgain is offline
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Originally Posted by Don't Call Me Shirley View Post
I think they would have figured it out pretty quickly. They found the rifle shortly after the assassination and I believe Buell Wesley Frazier, the co-worker that had given Oswald a ride to work, put the pieces together without too much trouble. He typically gave Oswald a ride home on Friday and picked him up again on Monday, but in this case Oswald asked him for a ride home on Thursday, and when he picked him up on Friday he was carrying the rifle, which he stated was curtain rods. Also, Marina Oswald stated that when she heard the president had been shot she went out to the garage where Oswald kept his rifle, and when she saw that it was gone, she knew Lee had done it.
But by the time all of this had happened, would Lee have been lying on a beach in Aruba drinking fruity drinks and living under the name Steve Barnes, or would he have been caught at home 7pm that night?
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  #45  
Old 05-21-2010, 06:03 PM
Clothahump Clothahump is offline
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Originally Posted by In Winnipeg View Post
Nothing? The guy was a lousy shot. His rifle was a piece of crap. The scope was out of whack. He wasn't that bright, and was prone to flights of fancy.

Definitely the kind of guy I would pick to get caught while the other guilty parties got away.
Go to the Sixth Floor Museum. You can't look out the exact window that Oswald made the shot from, but you can look out one that is about 10 feet away from it. My grandmother could have made that shot. I always had a tiny shred of doubt until the day I went to the museum. Now I am absolutely convinced Oswald did it and he acted alone.
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  #46  
Old 05-21-2010, 07:09 PM
Little Nemo Little Nemo is offline
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Quote:
I think there are four primary reasons for the abundance of conspiracy theories. First and foremost, I think, is the fact that Kennedy appeared to have been hit from in front and to the right - in other words from the direction of the grassy knoll. This impression was heightened by the fact that photos showed people lying on the ground looking up toward the knoll, plus at least one motorcycle cop charging up it. People generally had no realistic idea of the geography involved until the advent of the internet.

Secondly, so much was screwed up in the aftermath of the shooting, with evidence missing and so forth.

Then we have the very odd shooting of Oswald, which many people feel was done in order to keep him from testifying.

And then there is the plethora of books containing much false or misleading information as to what happened that day and/or evidence itself. I recall reading a passage from one of the books (don't recall which) that claimed the wound in the back of Kennedy's head was made post mortem, a claim disputed by the doctors and others in attendance at Parkland Hospital immediately after Kennedy's assassination.

So you put all that together along with the fact that so little verifyable information was available for the average person in the days before the internet, and you have a situation ripe for the creation of endless conspiracy theories.
Those are all good reasons. I'd add that apparently Dealey Plaza is a natural echo chamber - the buildings there easily reflect sounds. So it would be normal for people hearing gunshots to be mistaken about the directions they were coming from.

But I think the big issue was that people want to find meaning in life. Nobody likes tothink that bad things just happen - they want a reason. And if the reason doesn't look good enough, they'll invent a better reason. Kennedy dying because Oswald was a nut didn't seem good enough. So they decided Kennedy must have died because he was fighting a vast conspiracy.
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  #47  
Old 05-26-2010, 10:44 PM
Walloon Walloon is offline
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Even without believing in a conspiracy theory, it amazes me how incompetent the FBI and Secret Service were. The FBI knew where Oswald worked, but never thought to note the connection between the parade route and his place of employment!
Oswald had no known history of violence or of making violent threats.
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Old 05-26-2010, 10:50 PM
Walloon Walloon is offline
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Oswald apparently realized, in his more rational moments, that November 22 was not just going to be another day at the office. When his wife got up on that day, she found that before going to work he had left on the kitchen table his wedding ring, financial papers like bank records and insurance policies, and a note telling her not to worry about anything that might happen that day.
False on all three. Marina found Oswald's wedding ring in a demitasse cup in their bedroom, only after police had visited her on the afternoon of the assassination. He left no financial papers or insurance policies (he had none), nor did he leave any note.
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  #49  
Old 05-26-2010, 10:53 PM
CurtC CurtC is offline
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Oswald did leave a note for Marina a few months earlier when he tried to shoot General Walker (and barely missed).

Last edited by CurtC; 05-26-2010 at 10:53 PM..
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  #50  
Old 05-26-2010, 11:11 PM
Walloon Walloon is offline
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Originally Posted by Don't Call Me Shirley View Post
They found the rifle shortly after the assassination and I believe Buell Wesley Frazier, the co-worker that had given Oswald a ride to work, put the pieces together without too much trouble.
Unfortunately, Frazier did not put the pieces together until after Oswald was arrested. After Frazier watched the assassination, and while all hell was breaking loose, he went back inside the Depository and ate his lunch. From his Warren Commission testimony:

Representative FORD. Did it ever occur to you at any time following the shooting there was something connecting the shooting with Lee Oswald and the package?
Mr. FRAZIER. Well, I say not particularly not at that time, I didn't think anything about it because, to be frank with you, some [building employees] were over here, one or two would be over here talking and just strung out here, on the first floor and I didn't think anything about it. I see some of the guys, they go out for lunch and they come back 12:45 so I didn't know whether he had went out to lunch or not. Some of them do every week.

As late as 7:30 p.m. that day, Frazier had not contacted police with any suspicions he had. The police had to find him, and he was arrested as a possible accomplice because he had driven Oswald to work that morning, presumably with the rifle.
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