Under what circumstances will there be a runoff in Alaska?

[Ludovic]

Not sure if to put this here or in GQ but here goes.

Some people have speculated that the Senate race in Alaska could go to a runoff. Under what conditions might this occur, if it would occur at all?

[silenus]

If Murkowski gets less than 40% of the vote, it goes to a run-off between her and Miller. The key is going to be how many spellings Alaska allows for "Murkowski." If she gets all the write-ins, then she'll have over the 40% threshhold and will retain her seat.

[Chronos]

As I pointed out in another thread, though, all the write-ins combined are still only slightly over the threshold. That'll include some "Merkowski"s and "Murkowsky"s and the like, but it'll also include "Mickey Mouse" and "Big Bird", and those folks that Miller managed to get on the official list, and people voting for themselves or their best friends, and all the other typical write-in votes. It's quite likely that, even counting all the misspellings, she'll still be under the 40% magic number.

Which doesn't really make all that much difference in the long run; I can't really see any way of Miller beating her in the runoff.

[silenus]

True that. A run-off just postpones the inevitable, because Alaska's Dems will undoubtably back Murkowski against Miller.

[Frank]

One would assume that her name would be printed on the runoff ballot, so that the voters don't have to write it in again.

[BrainGlutton]

Originally Posted by Frank

One would assume that her name would be printed on the runoff ballot, so that the voters don't have to write it in again.

What fun would that be?!

[foolsguinea]

Oooh, there's a plan. Maybe I can get a referendum through to require voters to write out the whole ballot themselves!

[psychobunny]

While I'm pretty sure that Murkowski will win a run-off against Miller, I do feel compelled to point out that he did already beat her once this year in the primary.

[Jas09]

Originally Posted by psychobunny

While I'm pretty sure that Murkowski will win a run-off against Miller, I do feel compelled to point out that he did already beat her once this year in the primary.

In which only one party voted, and at much lower rates than a general.

[Cheshire Human]

Originally Posted by Jas09

In which only one party voted, and at much lower rates than a general.

But what would be the expected turnout for a runoff? And how distributed between the parties? Answers to those questions will obviously be key to any runoff result.

[silenus]

Gotta figure that a large number of Democrats will turn out for the run-off just to vote against Miller. Even if every nutjob in Alaska (and there are a lot of them!) votes for Miller, it won't be enough.

[alphaboi867]

Originally Posted by Jas09

In which only one party voted, and at much lower rates than a general.

And turnout will be higher for a surprise election in the middle of December for a single office where both candidates are from the same party?

[Martin Hyde]

Originally Posted by alphaboi867

And turnout will be higher for a surprise election in the middle of December for a single office where both candidates are from the same party?

Probably, since it actually determines who represents the whole state in the Senate which is different from a primary election on a fundamental level.