Will the Ryan Plan be the GOP's Achilles heel in 2012?

[Fear Itself]

John Stewart made the point last night that all the Republican candidates are supporting the Ryan budget plan, which guts Medicare and turns it into a voucher plan for private insurance with no guaranteed benefits. Yet the Ryan plan is highly unpopular with the public; even many conservatives hate it, especially the older ones who are most likely to vote.

But no Republican candidate dares criticize the Ryan plan, because it is very popular with the Tea Party, who see nothing less than the destruction of all government social programs as necessary to reduce the deficit. Newt Gingrich slipped up and told the truth last week, and look what happened to him.

So will allegiance to the Ryan plan be the downfall of the GOP in 2012? Are they are caught on the horns of a dilemma, convinced they cannot be nominated without kowtowing to the Tea Party, yet they cannot be elected in the general election on the promise to eviscerate Medicare? Statements by GOP candidates in support of the Ryan plan and their voting records promise to figure prominently in political ads in the run-up to the election.

Have we got them right where we want them?

[Simplicio]

I think whomever the GOP candidate is will end up coming out against the plan once they're through the primary. Newt got creamed more because of how strongly he came out against it rather then his actual position, most of the other candidates have hemmed and hawed when asked about it.

Still, it'll be a pretty heavy milstone around the GOPs neck in 2012, especially for the House members who are on record voting for it. It was a really weird move on the part of the GOP, the Ryan budget plan was not only obviously going to be unpopular, not only obviously counter to what was one of the GOPs most effective messages during the 2010 election (that Obamacare would harm Medicare), but it was also pretty pointless. It was never going to have a chance of becoming law.

[furt]

No. Because it's fairly easy to say things like "I don't support it completely, and there are some things I'll do differently, but I do think the Ryan plan has some really good ideas in it that we ought to seriously look at."

Note that is exactly what most of the pub candidates already are saying. Also note that the next line writes itself:

"Whatever the flaws in his plan, I certainly applaud the representative from Wisconsin for showing the political courage to articulate a plan for closing our deficit and addressing the long-term challenges facing our entitlement programs. I regret that the president has not shown similar leadership, and has instead proposed budgets that show continued deficits as far as the eye can see."


You don't win prestige by attacking people lower than you. A sitting President does not win re-election by attacking the ideas of a member of the house.

[Fear Itself]

Originally Posted by furt

No. Because it's fairly easy to say things like "I don't support it completely, and there are some things I'll do differently, but I do think the Ryan plan has some really good ideas in it that we ought to seriously look at."

Note that is exactly what most of the pub candidates already are saying.

I have not seen any Republican presidential candidates (or potential candidates) couch their answer like that. All of them that were lukewarm when it first came out, have suddenly become much clearer in their support since Newt got burned. They are are running toward Ryan's plan, not distancing themselves.

[Simplicio]

Originally Posted by furt

You don't win prestige by attacking people lower than you. A sitting President does not win re-election by attacking the ideas of a member of the house.

Its not "ideas of a member of the House", its Legislation passed by the House of Representatives.

[Jophiel]

Originally Posted by Simplicio

Its not "ideas of a member of the House", its Legislation passed by the House of Representatives.

By margins which make it fair to claim it's one of the current platforms of the GOP. Especially given the GOP response to those who actually speak against it.

[Rhythmdvl]

It may affect the primary, but it's too far from the general to have much impact. Candidate X voted to kill Medicare! By that time the plan will have changed and revised (along with history) that the fog of elections will have formed over the issue.