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#1
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DARPA is offering $0.5 million for organizational proposal to get to a star in 100 years. Ideas?
I found a stunning solicitation for proposals from the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency for setting up an organizational structure for a "100 Year Starship"TM. (The "TM"is official.) Like the man said, it is a (very) long range plan to get something to a star a century from now. They're not interested in technology ideas now, but how to set up an "investment vehicle" for business, entrepreneurs, and "technology visionaries," which can respond to "the accelerating pace of technological, social, and other change" over the next 100 years.
Sounds like a plan....Anyone want to kick around some ideas here before sending in your application? The long PDF solicitation and mini-essay/justification for the project is here. A one paragraph Web summary is here (at the bottom of the page). |
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#2
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I think that a bunch of right wingers and hippies got together and dropped acid to dream up this idea. There is simply NO WAY that an expedition to another star can be mounted with a reasonable expectation of a profit within the lifespan of the investors.
Near space exploration could conceivably be made profitable by asteroid mining, if a whole lot of technology is developed. And maybe even a good deal of the technology could be applied to an eventual star ship. But even if that is done, when in generations from now someone would have to make the decision to go ahead and build the star ship, a private sector agency will never, ever do it. A government would have to step in and pay for it, purely for whatever knowledge might be gained. |
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#3
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Oh, I wanna add, this smells to me like a Republican scheme to take government out of space exploration. "Let the private sector handle it!" Yeah, sure.
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#4
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The job of DARPA is to come up with far out ideas. It's like a government agency dedicated to brainstorming. As with any brainstorming, the vast majority of proposals are junk.
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#5
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American companies and investors in particular have a reputation of always focusing on short term profits at the expense of long term viability and profits. I have seen press reports suggesting that Japanese investment strategy is more long term oriented. I don't know if it is true, but if it is, how much longer? Longer than their expected life spans?
Because that is what this RFP boils down to - convincing investors to buy into an idea they will not see a return from in their lives, and therefor won't even be able to know if it will pay off for the their children or grandchildren. Honestly, the most realistic proposal for this would be a very strongly socialist economy with government having a very much larger say in the strategies and operations of business. If DARPA loved this idea and funded it, the next day Republicans would be introducing bills in Congress to kill the agency. The good part is, that a wacky idea might get you half a million bucks -- I doubt DARPA would be shut down so fast they didn't have time to write the check. I am willing to think up some wacky ideas and write them up in a few pages for that kind of payoff. Hell, I do it here for free every day.
Last edited by Boyo Jim; 10-10-2011 at 01:16 AM. |
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#6
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Let's put it in a relative concept as it was explained to me:
If our solar system was contained in something the size of a teacup then: Let me interrupt. The Sun is about 93 million miles from the Earth and the Earth is one of the inner planets. Neptune, Uranus, look it up. So the outer planets are within the diameter of the teacup. Where would the closest star be? Remember we are talking relativity. Our entire solar system is within the teacup. The nearest star would be about 3,000 miles away on a relative basis. With methods of travel as we know them, accessing even a nearby star is beyond anything we can practically conceive. A method of travel would have to be totally revolutionary. 1/2 million dollars is chump change. So, I'm calling bullshit. Anybody that would think that such an offer is attractive is FOS and insane. $50 billion dollars might make a little bit of sense. A trillion dollars might be more like it. |
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#7
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It's not a half million dollars as the budget for the trip, it's half a million dollars as a prize for coming up with the idea of how the private sector can finance and carry out the trip in a century's time.
Oh, which reminds me of another good thing. The winner will have spent the money and died long before the impossibility of the idea is proven.
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#8
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This sounds like a traditional public/private cooperative effort in technology. The idea is a to find a way to allow competing companies to mutually fund an independent research effort. The result will be a set of rules drawn up by founding members, a publication, conferences, and of course these days, a web site.
From the link in the OP: Quote:
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#9
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Its obvious, sell space bonds
Declan |
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#10
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The details of the suggested (and of course that'a all DARPA can hazard) project are fascinating. If nothing else, they are some pure futurology a la Stanislaw Lem, and wonderfully American quasi-capitalist. First comes the business plan. (Plus, most likely a Republican Party as we know it will most likely not exist by then.) |
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#11
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$500,000 won't build you a launching pad, let alone an interstellar spacecraft.
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#12
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Sure it will. It will launch me on my way to Vegas, baby!
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#13
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Plan A. My first thought is that the best bet is to found a new religion.
I was amused to note that in the Q&A section someone had clearly already already had thoughts similar to my plan B. Should any proposed investment vehicles be bound by the laws and rules that govern the securities industry in the United States? Sadly the answer seems to be yes. So massive Ponsi schemes are out. Plan C. Launch a transmitter to fake a signal from another planet. Hard, really hard actually. But would help a great deal with plan A. |
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#14
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Make a very inspiring, original movie about going to another star. Something like "The man who sold the Moon" (the book), but better. Put Taylor Lautner in it. Put in many visual references to Lockheed (or equivalent), somehow presenting the company as the Apple of spaceship makers.
Invest the box-office proceeds in the project. Or, if you're still waiting for some Unobtainium, just put it in U.S. treasury bonds. Hollywood will automatically issue a remake of the movie every 15-20 years for the next century, in 3D and then in Odorama and then in Touch-o-rama, collecting more money along the way. |
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#15
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For $500,000, you could probably hire a gang of heavies to kidnap Bill Gates.
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#16
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#17
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I don't think it's premature to say that this isn't going to produce anything that's even slightly plausible. It's like wanting to go to the Moon in a universe where it is physically impossible for anything to move faster than a brisk walk. |
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#18
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My idea would be for people to collectively tell DARPA to fuck off and do their own research. Besides, they have no intention to go to a star, they just want to cadge ideas for new ways to spy on or kill people, and they're offering an insulting amount of chump change for it.
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#19
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What's the closest star that lies within, say, 5 degrees of the plane of the ecliptic?
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#20
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Ah, but you invest the Gates money in more heavies, and kidnap more billionaires. It's only business model I can think of that would sustain any sort of meaningful attempt.
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#21
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Last edited by Grumman; 10-10-2011 at 07:14 AM. |
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#22
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For the most part though, I think a market based solution, as DARPA seems to be looking for, is unworkable because markets simply are not built to handle things like long horizon, investment intensive scientific research, which has high externalities, low reward/risk ratios, and high asymmetries of information. Which of course raises the point, should this particular project be carried out? |
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#23
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There are also opportunities to profit not just on what information comes back from the spacecraft, but what goes out on it. After all, certain money now is better than uncertain money 100 years from now.
-Create a small cargo area and sell the rights to it. You want your ashes sent to a star, now you can. - Install a small stereo system. You want your favorite music broadcast continuously from an interstellar vehicle, now you can. - Sell off design decal space for all non-essential paneling (inside & outside). This thing could be covered in profit producing graffiti. All these things should be marketed to all types of entities: individuals, corporations, and countries. |
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#24
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At first blush this does sound a bit silly. But lets look at it like this. If DARPA just hired a company to study this problem 500,000 dollars would would only pay for about 5 professionals working/thinking about it for a year (and maybe not even that). What are the chances of those few people working for that short a time coming up with a good idea?
Now, since its a contest, you'll have WAY more many people than 5 or so thinking and working on it hoping to "win" the big bucks. Of course all the losers are suckers really if they spend any real amount of time and effort on it. Its almost like a lottery where you have to spend hundreds to thousands of dollars to have an even chance of wining 10. And while the goal may seem silly, unrealistic, or just plain unachievable thats kinda beside the point. Many smart people (like mathematicians for example)have sat around solving problems that appear to have no bearing on real life or just arent important. Then a paper gets written up. Then, later somebody comes along and realizes that the solution can be applied to a real world problem. DARPA (or somebody else) IMO could end up with a "solution" thats worth WAY more than half a mill. And, if nothing else is doing their gambling on the cheap. |
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#25
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I find this mildly libelous. From my viewpoint DARPA has always seemed to understand that defense =/= killing. Defense involves killing, lots of it and they would love to show you new and better ways to do in, but there are other things involved and they study those too. Things like not keeping all our people in one spot where they are one big target, but spreading them out to other planets. This contest is totally within their sphere of operations and consisting of their usual modus operandi of geting outsiders to do most of the work so as to maximize spread of reaserch money. If you want to covince me of anything else you'll have to produce some evidence, because right now you just come off as insulting and ignorant. |
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#26
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I don't think anybody is clicking on the first link in the OP. DARPA is not looking for the space exploration plan, they're looking for the means of maintaining the focused research and development for space exploration over a long period of time.
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#27
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This reminds me of the Long Range Foundation in one of Heinlein's novels, which invested in really long-shot technologies.
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#28
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Moderator Note
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Boyo Jim, I am sure you know that political jabs are prohibited in GQ. No warning issued, but don't do this again. Colibri General Questions Moderator |
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#29
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My 500k idea.
1. Take a billion dollars, 2.Put it in a big pot. 3.Solicit,the best ideas from around the world on how to go to space in a hundred years. 4. Give the best ideas the billion dollars on a quality of suggestion basis. I'll take the 500k in small bills please. |
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#30
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Since the OP will require more along the lines of opinions, let's move this from General Questions to IMHO.
samclem, Moderator |
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#31
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GQ, I hardly knew ye' ![]() ::/sniff, whimper:: |
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#32
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http://www.universetoday.com/15403/h...-nearest-star/
"...So, if Voyager 1 was travelling in the direction of the red dwarf Proxima Centauri, how long would it take to get there? At a constant velocity of 60,000 km/hr, it would take 76,000 years (or over 2,500 generations) to travel that distance. And what if we could attain the record-breaking speed of Helios 2′s close approach of the Sun? Travelling at a constant speed of 240,000 km/hr, Helios 2 would take 19,000 years (or over 600 generations) to travel 4.3 light years..." "Fastest (theoretical): Nuclear Pulse Propulsion = 85 years" We haven't even made a warp bubble yet...
Last edited by Jamicat; 10-10-2011 at 10:59 PM. |
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#33
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I don't know if there's anyone willing to even legitimately consider this proposal. I'm certainly not an investment type or business plan innovator. But I find this an inspiring idea. |
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#34
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I also think the Nobel Prize is very poor example. It is certainly not an investment strategy, it is the fulfillment of the will of a rich dead guy. Now, that may be a possibility -- convince the ultra-rich (while they are alive or after death doesn't matter a lot) to offer prizes to those who are able to achieve milestones of technology that would be needed in order to carry out the mission. So maybe a foundation established to create such a list and to convince the wealthy to simply give money to get the job done without an expectation of reward is an option, maybe even the only one given the project parameters. But it's just a craps shoot. |
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#35
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#36
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First, we must define Sol to be outside our solar system...
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#37
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I was going to point to the B612 Foundation as a possible example to consider, but the website appears to be defunct, so I'm not really sure what is going on with it. That may be a sign of the effectiveness of this kind of plan. |
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#38
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Edited to add, Nobel's will actually states, "The whole of my remaining realizable estate shall be dealt with in the following way: the capital, invested in safe securities by my executors, shall constitute a fund, the interest on which shall be annually distributed in the form of prizes to those who, during the preceding year, shall have conferred the greatest benefit on mankind." Last edited by Dewey Finn; 10-11-2011 at 01:02 PM. |
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#39
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#40
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That's true; sometimes it takes a long while to see the impact of work done. Like the quasi-crystals that were the reason that a scientist received the chemistry prize this year.
Last edited by Dewey Finn; 10-11-2011 at 01:13 PM. |
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#41
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You are correct, Nobel intended the rewards to be timely. Creating a system to evaluate the technical merits of such complex fields required compromises, one of them being letting the technical merits of the ideas play out a bit.
The point being having a prize bestowed upon you after the fact for something you did anyway is not as much incentive for a person to go off and create innovative discoveries. While some probably funnel the money into new research that may or may not pay out, it's not required. So if the goal is to drive new innovations, it is not a strong plan. It does have some weak driver because people can say "And hey, this may even earn me the Nobel Prize". But the goal as providing a reward to people who have done a service, it works pretty well. And in some ways it is easier than trying to evaluate proposals and guess which might be beneficial - the typical investment route. |
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#42
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Sooooo we're establishing a Nobel Prize in Space Exploration? Sounds great.
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#43
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Well, that's an idea, but it would need to be fleshed out a bit to qualify for DARPA's money.
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#44
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Build a star:
1) Make an orbiting thing that turns hydrogen into helium through fission and emits light. 2) Go visit it. Last edited by bup; 10-12-2011 at 03:51 PM. |
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#45
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(Now, if you mean to represent the Sun itself, you only need about a 6-inch teacup -- a bit large, but within reason.)
__________________
The Internet: Nobody knows if you're a dog. Everybody knows if you're a jackass. Last edited by Steve MB; 10-13-2011 at 09:58 AM. |
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#46
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bup, there's something wrong with that suggestion. How do you turn hydrogen into helium through fission?
http://www.diffen.com/difference/Nuc...Nuclear_Fusion |
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#47
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#48
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#49
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So what? So what if what they really want is improved space propulsion so they can send Space Marines to Neptune? Or harvest Helium3 from Jupiter? Or ice mine Saturn's rings? Who the hell cares, if it spawns investment in space technology?
The same technology that can deflect a projected Earth impacting asteroid can also deflect an asteroid into Earth. It's all in the targeting and timing. Last edited by Irishman; 10-14-2011 at 10:02 AM. |
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#50
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Leaving sacasm territory, I will point out they never said they're trying to get to a star. They are looking for ways to convince people to invest in long term research, towards getting to a star. If you can think of a way to weponize an investment scheme I'm sure you could get a good deal more than half a million. |
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