2500 Marines In Australia Make China Tremble?

[ralph124c]

So Obama goes to Australia and annonces that 2500 US Marines will vacation in Darwin, Australia.
What is this (rather silly) gesture supposed to do?
It is nice that the US and Australia are friends-but is this supposed to make the Chinese scared?
I don't get it-a major export of Australia is coal-which goes to China (so the Chinese can make all that cheap consumer stuff we buy so much of)-China likes having Australia to supply cheap energy.
What made Obama decide on this?

[Little Nemo]

Arguably, it's a tripwire. The presence of 2500 American troops in Australia wouldn't be enough to prevent China from attacking Australia but it would guarantee that America would go to war with China if it attacked Australia. This deters an attack against Australia.

But realistically, I don't see China attacking Australia in the near future.

[aceplace57]

China has been quietly building up their Naval power for the past decade or so. Twenty years ago we still had the capability to help defend Taiwan. I've read that now China could easily take Taiwan anytime they want and there's little we can do. That increased Naval power gives China a much bigger presence throughout the Pacific Rim. The Pacific Rim includes Australia and many other countries.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pacific_Rim

We've been so focused on our war on Terror that little has been done to keep our Navy current and powerful. Meanwhile China has had an excellent opportunity to study our weapons and tactics in Iraq and Afghanistan. We've never seen China's military in action and our knowledge of their weapons very sketchy.

Like it or not China could emerge very soon as the world's superpower. We better hope they stay content within their own borders. Although I think they will eventually take Taiwan. Either through intimidation or if necessary force. They've already made it very clear recently that Taiwan better not declare itself independent. Just last year China had some naval maneuvers because they weren't happy with Taiwan's position.

[Walther Ego]

Taiwan has a modern air force capable of challenging air superiority over Taiwan. That is really all you need to make an amphibious operation insanely risky. China's air force is an un-known: some modern planes, some old, nobody really knows how well their own makes work, unknown pilot quality.

Building a serious navy takes a long time. Imperial Germany and the Soviet Union did it for a couple of decades. Time ran out and they weren't really able to pose a serious challenge. China needs to continue for another decade before being serious.

[Gyrate]

I agree that it's not about Australia, it's about Taiwan and reminding the Chinese that the US still has a broader regional interest it is willing to defend. It is indeed a "gesture" but not a silly one - it's a benign way of making a serious point. And it will not have been lost on the Chinese, although I doubt it will change much.

[Little Nemo]

I'd be interested in knowing what kind of transport capability this Marine detachment will have stationed with it in Australia. If they're essentially stationary, then they're there for the purpose of defending Australia as a tripwire.

But if they're stationed with a C-130 squadron then they're a forward rapid deployment force that can be sent to Taiwan, Vietnam, the Philippines, or Korea in a crisis.

[ralph124c]

Frankly, I don't understand all the fuss about China. In the first place, the Chinese are very rational. They do not indulge in military adventurism. So invading Australia is just about the craziest idea I've ever heard.
Second, the Chinese have told Taiwan that they can operate as a semi-autonomous part of China-as long as they don't criticize and become hostile.
The Chinese need raw materials-they will do business with other nations on the basis of mutal self-interest. They don't get involved with the internal politics of countries they do business with.
And they don't like the endless harping of the West about China's "human rights abuses"-the Chinese basically say "clear the beam from your own eye before you point out the speck in ours".
If only we would emulate China-and keep our noses out of every conflict on earth.
I think we are now realizing that acting like the "world cop" has made us unpopular and cost us a fortune..and our leaders don't care about the people they represent-at least the Chinese government protects the jobs of its people.

[ZipperJJ]

Ralph, you should write a letter to your congressperson and share with them your excellent points.

[aceplace57]

China is way ahead of the West in cyber warfare. I've been watching news reports on viruses and network breeches carefully for years. Just this year there was a serious breech in the dept of defenses computers and it seems to lead back to China. A lot of the more serious viruses are said to come from China. They are probing and testing out their coding.

China has military units that specialize in cyber intelligence and warfare. They've been training and preparing at least 15 years. What's the U.S. got? Some unorganized hackers and a few thousand script kiddies. The script kiddies use utilities written by real hackers to generate viruses.

Read this 2009 government report prepared by Northrop Grumman. This is serious and scary stuff. The West isn't prepared for this at all.
http://www.uscc.gov/researchpapers/2..._16Oct2009.pdf

[Lemur866]

Ever wonder why you don't hear about America's cyber-warfare program? One possibility is that we don't have a cyber-warfare program. The other possibility is that the people in charge of our cyber-warfare program don't talk about our cyber-warfare program.

[Telemark]

After all, the Iranian centrifuges didn't mess themselves up.

[Argent Towers]

I think the prevailing wisdom is that it wasn't the Americans behind the Iranian centrifuge sabotage, but Israel.

[Foggy]

Are you all sheeple?!!1?

The REAL reason that 2500 Marines are in Australia is due to the threat posed by the recent alliance of Wombats and Koalas. No one is sure what they are up to, but it is certain that they are up to something, possible involving Vegemite.

[treis]

Originally Posted by Walther Ego

Taiwan has a modern air force capable of challenging air superiority over Taiwan.

Taiwan's problem is that they are within ballistic missile range of China. It doesn't matter if you have 1,000 planes if I've just shot 50 missiles at each runway you have.

Originally Posted by ralph124c

Frankly, I don't understand all the fuss about China. In the first place, the Chinese are very rational. They do not indulge in military adventurism.

The people of South Korea, Vietnam, Tibet, and India would beg to differ.

[mlees]

There are ongoing efforts in assisting various allies (like the Phillippines) in combating terrorist or insurgent groups within their borders.

Maybe these Marines are going to be tapped (in smallish numbers) to provide manpower (or training) for beating the bushes in the Phillippines or Indonesia/Timor?

[Bosda Di'Chi of Tricor]

Originally Posted by Foggy

Are you all sheeple?!!1?

The REAL reason that 2500 Marines are in Australia is due to the threat posed by the recent alliance of Wombats and Koalas. No one is sure what they are up to, but it is certain that they are up to something, possible involving Vegemite.

The Wombat-Men and Koala-oids are at war with the Sheeple?

What are you, a Furry?

[6ImpossibleThingsB4Breakfast]

2500 Marines In Australia Make China Tremble if they're heavy enough.

And those against the Wombat/Koala alliance are doomed.

You just cannot fight the combined marsupial power of an angry head crusher, and an endearing drunk.

[Love Rhombus]

Not to mention that if I were going to invade somewhere, Australia would not be on my top-ten list of places to start. Not even top fifteen.

[ExTank]

Originally Posted by Love Rhombus

Not to mention that if I were going to invade somewhere, Australia would not be on my top-ten list of places to start. Not even top fifteen.

Yup.

[Lust4Life]

Leaving Geo politics out of it, it'll be a nice little boost for the Australian economy.

[Rhythmdvl]

Originally Posted by Lemur866

Ever wonder why you don't hear about America's cyber-warfare program? One possibility is that we don't have a cyber-warfare program. The other possibility is that the people in charge of our cyber-warfare program don't talk about our cyber-warfare program.

The first rule of Cyber-Warefare Club...


Also, we hear of some breaches in the west, mostly due to disclosure laws and a free press (this is relative to China, Iran etc.). There are clearly many more we don't hear about, but absent a large-scale attack with obvious repercussions (e.g. Stuxnet), I wouldn't expect any totalitarian regime to routinely let on that it's been the target of a cyber attack.

[dotchan]

It's probably a little posturing at the behest of one or more of the Pacific Rim nations. The current government in mainland China may be mostly rational, but they have their hawks and saber-rattlers, so every once in a while it pays to have a metaphorical dick-waggling contest. (Though the mental image of our world leaders dropping trou and doing an actual dick-waggling contest is pretty amusing.)

China doing an all-out invasion is, for the time being, still the stuff of fantasy, but it's not an outright impossible scenario. While international relations have improved a lot in the last 20 years, there's a lot of old fats on both sides with long memories and even longer grudges. Plus there's an outright insane guy with nukes in the area.

[ralph124c]

Originally Posted by Rhythmdvl

The first rule of Cyber-Warefare Club...


Also, we hear of some breaches in the west, mostly due to disclosure laws and a free press (this is relative to China, Iran etc.). There are clearly many more we don't hear about, but absent a large-scale attack with obvious repercussions (e.g. Stuxnet), I wouldn't expect any totalitarian regime to routinely let on that it's been the target of a cyber attack.

The US Air Force announced the formation of a cyber warfare command in 2009 (I know, I was there-at a presentation at Albuquerque, Kirtland AFB).
So the US takes cyber defense very seriously.
Though the idea that China would risk losing everything in a war strikes me as very strange.

[penultima thule]

Originally Posted by dotchan

It's probably a little posturing at the behest of one or more of the Pacific Rim nations. The current government in mainland China may be mostly rational, but they have their hawks and saber-rattlers, so every once in a while it pays to have a metaphorical dick-waggling contest.

Well yes, but it makes every bit as much geopolitical sense if you substitute "China" with "USA" that paragraph.

Originally Posted by Little Nemo

Arguably, it's a tripwire. The presence of 2500 American troops in Australia wouldn't be enough to prevent China from attacking Australia but it would guarantee that America would go to war with China if it attacked Australia. This deters an attack against Australia.

Frog shit.
China could nuke Darwin and the US wouldn't go beyond indignant rhetoric in a motion to the UN Security Council which China and Russia would veto. Of course why China would consider even momentarily going to all the expense and hassle to secure resources militarily at the end of an undefendably long supply chain, when they currently get first dibs on the minerals/gas/fibre/foodstuffs they want delivered at world parity prices, rather escapes me.

It's also a curiously ineffective placement for a tripwire. By the time the advancing hordes reached Darwin, methinks there'd be a few other warning sirens going off.
If the US wanted a real tripwire they'd put those marines on Taiwan, which is about as likely as China invading Australia.