Scott Walker recall takes an unexpected turn.

[Fear Itself]

Originally Posted by FE3O4ENAIL

So they are Wisconsinites with jobs, but we shouldn't count them among Wisconsinites with jobs? Because they drive over a bridge?

That's correct. Do you expect they won't be counted in the state where they work? Or should they be counted in both states? They don't work in Wisconsin, so they don't count in Wisconsin's stats.

[Fuzzy Dunlop]

Originally Posted by FE3O4ENAIL

So they are Wisconsinites with jobs, but we shouldn't count them among Wisconsinites with jobs? Because they drive over a bridge?

We should give tons of credit to Minnesota, Iowa, Illinois, and Michigan tons of credit for creating those jobs outside of Wisconsin. But Scott Walker? Nope. He doesn't get to count a single one of them.

[Jack Batty]

Fucking anchor-badgers.

[elucidator]

We don't need no steeenking badgers!

[FE3O4ENAIL]

Originally Posted by Fuzzy Dunlop

We should give tons of credit to Minnesota, Iowa, Illinois, and Michigan tons of credit for creating those jobs outside of Wisconsin. But Scott Walker? Nope. He doesn't get to count a single one of them.

I agree, tons of credit to job creaters who get tons of credit for creating jobs. (Sorry, couldn't resist mocking redundancy).

[elucidator]

I'm sure Minnesotans could be persuaded to accept more Wisconsin workers for some minor concessions. Eradication of Green Bay would be a good first step.

[Fuzzy Dunlop]

Originally Posted by FE3O4ENAIL

I agree, tons of credit to job creaters who get tons of credit for creating jobs. (Sorry, couldn't resist mocking redundancy).

Not my best writing but, gosh, I was just so damn excited to give people other than Scott Walker credit for creating jobs outside of his state.

[Reginald Hobbes]

Originally Posted by BigAppleBucky

Wisconsin gained 23,000 jobs in 2011 if you count Wisconsinites working in neighboring states. If not, Wisconsin may have lost jobs. Either way, the actual number is so close to zero as to not matter.

So, you're saying all 23,000 jobs created last year were actually in neighboring states?
Do you have some evidence for that?

[Fuzzy Dunlop]

Originally Posted by Reginald Hobbes

So, you're saying all 23,000 jobs created last year were actually in neighboring states?
Do you have some evidence for that?

Of course that's not what BigAppleBucky is saying. The point is that even if 0 of those now unemployed needed to obtain jobs out of state, 23,000 jobs is so far from Walker's promise of 250,000 jobs in 4 years that it might as well be 0.

I'd say that's an exaggeration, but it's definitely a very horrible performance on jobs even in the best case scenario. And BigAppleBucky certainly wasn't saying that all 23,000 newly employed Wisconsins were working out of state... I can't see how you got that.

[BigAppleBucky]

Originally Posted by Fuzzy Dunlop

Of course that's not what BigAppleBucky is saying. The point is that even if 0 of those now unemployed needed to obtain jobs out of state, 23,000 jobs is so far from Walker's promise of 250,000 jobs in 4 years that it might as well be 0.

I'd say that's an exaggeration, but it's definitely a very horrible performance on jobs even in the best case scenario. And BigAppleBucky certainly wasn't saying that all 23,000 newly employed Wisconsins were working out of state... I can't see how you got that.

There are two possible measures. Both rely on estimates and surveys and neither is a 100% canvass.

The first, which has been used in the past to talk about jobs within any particular state is a survey of employers.

Scroll down about 7/8 of the report at the link.

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/laus.nr0.htm

That link is to the new report released May 18 and it compares April 11 to April 12 changes. The previous report showing a loss of 23K jobs was March to March.

This new report shows Wisconsin with no statistically significant change April to April, which is an apparent improvement.

However . . .

I dug into the BLS details:
http://www.bls.gov/news.release/laus.t06.htm

I see the following comparative figures and I don't really see an improvement for April. (Numbers in 000's)

March 11 2,705.0
March 12 2,682.3
change minus 22.7

April 11 2,742.4
April 12 2,712.9
change minus 29.5

Why 22.7 should be "statistically significant" and 29.5 not, is beyond my imagination except that perhaps it became a political hot potato that the BLS did not want to deal with or that omitting Wisconsin was a mistake they'll fix soon.

I also see this language (bold mine):

In April 2012, nonfarm payroll employment increased in 32 states and the District of Columbia and decreased in 18 states. The largest over-the-month increase in employment occurred in Indiana (+17,100), followed by Texas
(+13,200) and Georgia (+7,800). The largest over-the-month decrease in employment occurred in Maryland (-6,000), followed by Wisconsin (-5,900) and New Hampshire (-4,800).

Anyway, the employer survey has been the commonly used measurement.

Walker, seeing that the prior number was the worst in the country, is trying to get folks to look at the survey of households and the unemployment rate. Those surveys showed a better picture, slightly positive.

Why would households be reporting more jobs than employers. The biggest reason would be people working out of state.

I believe that there are also some differences with regard to the tally of people with two jobs. Households might be reporting employment, but businesses might be reporting on FTE (Full time equivalents) and the two numbers might make comparisons difficult.

Here is a link to the BLS technical note. If someone wants to wade through this, be my guest:
http://www.bls.gov/news.release/laus.tn.htm

[FE3O4ENAIL]

The guardian.co.uk reports USA at 14th in testing 0f students and Japan 5th.
Reason.com shows USA spending 90K per student, while Japan spends 70K. Only the Swiss spend more than we do.

Walker cuts spending on education to a level that other countries have no problem getting results that excede ours.Why is he a bad guy for asking US teachers to do what is done by much of the world?
Why can't teachers learn to do more with less like manufacturing has done?

[BrainGlutton]

Originally Posted by FE3O4ENAIL

Why can't teachers learn to do more with less like manufacturing has done?

Well, that would be a whole 'nother thread, and belong in GD.

[Fear Itself]

Originally Posted by FE3O4ENAIL

Why is he a bad guy for asking US teachers to do what is done by much of the world?

Because much of the world has socialized medicine, and teachers don't have to beg their employer for health benefits.

[FE3O4ENAIL]

Originally Posted by Fear Itself

Because much of the world has socialized medicine, and teachers don't have to beg their employer for health benefits.

Why are there more teachers than teaching job? You would think that market forces would correct that if teaching jobs were undercompensated.

[BrainGlutton]

Originally Posted by FE3O4ENAIL

Why are there more teachers than teaching job? You would think that market forces would correct that if teaching jobs were undercompensated.

How?

[Fear Itself]

Originally Posted by FE3O4ENAIL

Why are there more teachers than teaching job? You would think that market forces would correct that if teaching jobs were undercompensated.

You would be wrong to think that, if the fact remains that the number of teachers outnumber the available teaching jobs. Clearly, the market does not function the way you think it does. Not that it matters, because that factoid is irrelevant.

You can't compare education spending in the US to education spending in Switzerland, because much of every US education dollar is spent on healthcare benefits for teachers and staff. In Switzerland, and every other first world country, health care benefits do not come out of education dollars.

That is why we spend more on education than any other country.

[mkecane]

Originally Posted by elucidator

I'm sure Minnesotans could be persuaded to accept more Wisconsin workers for some minor concessions. Eradication of Green Bay would be a good first step.

I like it!

[FE3O4ENAIL]

Originally Posted by BrainGlutton

How?

If the compensation is too low, people will not consider the vocation.

[Fear Itself]

Originally Posted by FE3O4ENAIL

If the compensation is too low, people will not consider the vocation.

Yes, let's have our kids try to learn from the only teachers who will still work for slashed wages. Does that sound like a way to achieve higher educational standards?

[FE3O4ENAIL]

Originally Posted by Fear Itself

Yes, let's have our kids try to learn from the only teachers who will still work for slashed wages. Does that sound like a way to achieve higher educational standards?

Well, in manufacturing, we changed how we did things.
The pay is good for the people left after the revolution,but the expectations are way differant than how they were.
That is what I am expecting from teachers, abandon the past, think hard about what will produce results, then do it.

[elucidator]

Gosh, why didn't we think of that before! Its simply an openly negotiated contract between private citizens! Its not like there's any other pressure! And all those labor disturbances, they were so very, very wrong, accusing the capitalist employers of heartless exploitation! They were simply obedient to the will of the Free Market, blessings and peace be upon it! Its not like the workers were at the mercy of a soulless and arbitrary machinery utterly unconcerned for their well-being.

Except for being exactly like that, it wasn't like that at all!

[BrainGlutton]

Originally Posted by FE3O4ENAIL

If the compensation is too low, people will not consider the vocation.

That ain't no "correction." You're looking at it from the wrong end. The important question is, why are there fewer well-paying teaching jobs than there should be? I trust you will understand why this has an importance not reflected in market-forces, and fundamentally different from the same question WRT lathe operators or whatever.

[BrainGlutton]

But, now this is really veering into GD territory.

[BrainGlutton]

Getting back to Wisconsin electoral politics -- I did not know this -- from the SourceWatch page on the voter-suppression organization True the Vote (an outgrowth, BTW, of the Texas Tea Party organization King Street Patriots):

2011-2012 Wisconsin Recall Effort

In 2012, True the Vote joined several other Tea Party groups in "Verify the Recall", an effort that opposes the 2012 recall of Wisconsin governor Scott Walker. True the Vote provided software which it had previously applied to check signatures in petitions in Texas. [17] In order to electronically check over 1 million petition signatures, which had previously been posted online by Wisconsin's Government Accountability Board [18] True the Vote recruited thousands of volunteers (mostly out of state) to manually enter signatures into True the Vote's electronic database. True the Vote claims to have recruited over 13,000 volunteers. [19] True the Vote has stated that this effort is both "nonpartisan" [20] and "not about politics" [21] but their website has run at least two stories suggesting that fraud is "rampant" in the recall effort, and frame the effort as decidedly political. In their own words "we should not believe the claims of union-supporters and anti-Walker operatives who say that they collected more than one million signatures on petitions to recall Governor Scott Walker." [22].

On February 28th, Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker called for the data gathered by the "Verify the Recall" effort to be used as an official challenge of the recall.[23] This data was gathered and compiled entirely by True the Vote. True the Vote's executive summary claimed that only 534,865 signatures gathered during the recall effort were valid. [24]. There is evidence that True the Vote used a flawed process to discount signatures on the ballot, and that most of the signatures they discounted are, in fact, accurate.[25]

<snip>



17.↑ Carl Engleking: Tea Party Ready to do Battle in Court over Recall Signatures Menomonee Falls: Patch Accessed February 22nd, 2012
18.↑ Clay Barbour: GAB Posts Walker Recall Petitions Online Despite Privacy Concerns Wisconsin State Journal, Accessed February 22nd, 2012
19.↑ True the Vote: Volunteer Accessed February 22nd, 2012
20.↑ True the Vote: Volunteer Accessed February 22nd, 2012
21.↑ True the Vote: Main page Accessed February 22nd, 2012
22.↑ True the Vote: Wisc voter's name fraudulently signed four times Accessed February 22nd, 2012
23.↑ Walker Challenge Sworn Written Challenge of Governor Scott K. Walker
24.↑ True the Vote: Walker Recall Executive Summary
25.↑ Brenden Fischer and William Dooling: True the Vote or Skew the Vote PRWatch, Accessed March 2nd, 2012

[FE3O4ENAIL]

Originally Posted by elucidator

Gosh, why didn't we think of that before! Its simply an openly negotiated contract between private citizens! Its not like there's any other pressure! And all those labor disturbances, they were so very, very wrong, accusing the capitalist employers of heartless exploitation! They were simply obedient to the will of the Free Market, blessings and peace be upon it! Its not like the workers were at the mercy of a soulless and arbitrary machinery utterly unconcerned for their well-being.

Except for being exactly like that, it wasn't like that at all!

Who is forcing you to work at your current employer?

[BrainGlutton]

Originally Posted by FE3O4ENAIL

Who is forcing you to work at your current employer?

That is a quite incredibly stupid question to ask at any time, and especially four+ years into a recession.

[Reginald Hobbes]

Originally Posted by BigAppleBucky

There are two possible measures. Both rely on estimates and surveys and neither is a 100% canvass.

There is a third measure, the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, which is a (nearly) 100% canvass.

Revisions to jobs statistics nothing new for politics
The governor released fourth-quarter employment data - not due for formal release until June 28 - showing Wisconsin added about 23,321 public and private sector jobs last year. Those figures from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages - which is collected from 95% of the state's private and public sector employers and deemed reliable by most economists - contrast sharply with more than a year's worth of monthly employment surveys, which suggested that Wisconsin lost 33,900 jobs last year, ranking it last among the 50 states.

It was those monthly survey numbers that Walker's op ponents have used since last year to criticize him.

The accuracy of the monthly data has been called into question in the past. The monthly estimates, after all, are based on surveys of only 3.5% to 5% of the state's businesses each month and then extrapolated statewide under a mathematical model that's routinely prone to error.

....

Inaccurate data

And it brings up an issue that's been reported, but is often overlooked or willfully ignored: The state employment data that triggers each month's partisan eruption is prone to stunning degrees of inaccuracy. It's a fact that even government statisticians don't talk about unless asked. But the common margin of error would astonish anyone who assumes that Wisconsin's monthly unemployment reports are a reliable reflection of the Badger State economy.

An example: On any given month, the margin of error for the net change in Wisconsin employment can be off by 9,340 jobs in either direction, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, which compiles the figures for the nation and each of the 50 states.

Using the most recent monthly data - in March, when the data reported an estimated loss of 4,500 jobs in the state - that could either mean a dispiriting loss of 13,840 jobs or a respectable gain of 4,840.

And that range of standard deviations, as the discrepancies are known to the green-eyeshade crowd, is only to achieve a 90% degree of confidence in the numbers. "Ten percent of the time, it's outside of those bounds," meaning they are even more wildly erratic, said Kenneth Robertson, chief of the division of Current Employment Statistics at the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Originally Posted by BigAppleBucky

Why would households be reporting more jobs than employers. The biggest reason would be people working out of state.

Are you getting your info from Kathleen Vinehout?

[Omg a Black Conservative]

So if (when) Walker wins the recall election, what will be the excuse?

[FE3O4ENAIL]

Originally Posted by Omg a Black Conservative

So if (when) Walker wins the recall election, what will be the excuse?

The evil corporations used the free money Walker gave them to trick the stupid people of Wisconsin.

[Fear Itself]

Originally Posted by Omg a Black Conservative

So if (when) Walker wins the recall election, what will be the excuse?

And when he loses?

[elucidator]

Originally Posted by FE3O4ENAIL

The evil corporations used the free money Walker gave them to trick the stupid people of Wisconsin.

OK, what about that? How is the money thing breaking down in this recall? From whence Walker's money? If you are well informed enough to sneer, surely you have the facts right at your fingertips?

[elucidator]

Shall I help you out with that?

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/...84000820120501

Wisconsin Republican Governor Scott Walker said on Monday his campaign raised $13 million in just over three months to ward off an attempt by Democrats and unions to remove him from office in a recall election because of his attacks on organized labor....The $13 million represents more than seven times the combined amount raised by his two main Democratic challengers...

Of course, that might just be a reflection of the overwhelming popular support Gov Walker currently enjoys, all those small donors rushing to express their approval. An overwhelming support that is not reflected in the lies of the liberal media, of course!

Nor is it reflected in the ease with which the petition drive for recall succeeded in gaining a sufficient number of registered voters. ACORN, maybe? And the liberal media is all about how this money is mostly from rich folks and corporadoes. This affords you an excellent opportunity to rebut their scurrilous lies.

I wait with bated breath.

[FE3O4ENAIL]

Originally Posted by elucidator

Shall I help you out with that?

This affords you an excellent opportunity to rebut their scurrilous lies.

I wait with bated breath.

Tell you what, since I never said that the rich are not pouring money into Walkers hands, I don't know of any lies to rebut. He does have the ability to raise unlimited money to fight the recall.

I'm off to check into the idea that Walker "gave" millions to corporations.
I'll let you know what I find.

[Terr]

Originally Posted by elucidator

Shall I help you out with that?

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/...84000820120501

Of course, that might just be a reflection of the overwhelming popular support Gov Walker currently enjoys, all those small donors rushing to express their approval. An overwhelming support that is not reflected in the lies of the liberal media, of course!

Nor is it reflected in the ease with which the petition drive for recall succeeded in gaining a sufficient number of registered voters. ACORN, maybe? And the liberal media is all about how this money is mostly from rich folks and corporadoes. This affords you an excellent opportunity to rebut their scurrilous lies.

I wait with bated breath.

http://host.madison.com/wsj/news/loc...9bb2963f4.html

Altogether, an estimated $86.8 million surged into Wisconsin campaigns and political groups between Jan. 1, 2011 — two days before Walker took office — and April 23 of this year, according to campaign finance statements filed with the state Government Accountability Board.

The period covers the first 16 months of Walker’s tenure, including his controversial measure to effectively eliminate public sector collective bargaining, which turned the state into a national battleground and sparked 15 recall elections.

The bulk of that money — $81.5 million — was split almost exactly in half between Democratic candidates and affiliated organizations, and Republican candidates and their affiliated groups.
...
“The perception out there is that the Republicans are much more flush with cash, and that isn’t supported here,” Cramer Walsh said.

[FE3O4ENAIL]

That bad man Walker saved corporations 23M by changing combined reporting tax law, and another 71M with other changes according to politifact.com.
Salemnews.com has Il. giving out tax credits/incentives of 272M in 2010, and Ca. more than a billion.
I guess Walker is small time in serving coporate masters.

[elucidator]

Oh, I didn't know it was time to play Let's Change the Subject, Rusty.

Terr? You missed this part. Glad to help!

....It found that most of the out-of-state money — and most of the big-dollar contributions — have gone to Republican candidates and allied groups, while donations to Democrats and unions’ political action committees have come overwhelmingly from within Wisconsin....

Emphasis mine. Couldn't be your emphasis, of course, because you skipped that part.

[BrainGlutton]

Originally Posted by FE3O4ENAIL

The evil corporations used the free money Walker gave them to trick the stupid people of Wisconsin.

No, the reverse, Walker is the recipient of the evil corporations' money. They don't come no more eviler than the Koch Brothers.

[elucidator]

Except for Ernst Soros Blofeld. First he had Ian Fleming killed, then got Roger Moore cast as Bond, James Bond. Like casting Pee-Wee Herman to be Rambo.

[FE3O4ENAIL]

Originally Posted by elucidator

Oh, I didn't know it was time to play Let's Change the Subject, Rusty.

Oh,please can we change the subject?
The other one was so silly " Rich people have money and are willing to give it to someone who will help them".
Does anyone expect anything else to happen?

PS, Rusty is Ok, just don't call me strawberry shortcakes.

[elucidator]

Originally Posted by FE3O4ENAIL

Oh,please can we change the subject?
The other one was so silly " Rich people have money and are willing to give it to someone who will help them".
Does anyone expect anything else to happen?...

Nope. Refreshing candor on your part, actually.

[FE3O4ENAIL]

Originally Posted by elucidator

Nope. Refreshing candor on your part, actually.

I hope the truth and myself are not strangers.

Walkers war on the middle class seems overstated.
I work in a non union shop, as does my wife. We have good pay and benefits.
Is that uncommon?

[Terr]

Originally Posted by elucidator

Terr? You missed this part. Glad to help!

Regardless of the sources, the two parties are about equal in their fundraising. So when Walker wins, the Dems won't be able to whine about him buying it.

[BrainGlutton]

Originally Posted by FE3O4ENAIL

Oh,please can we change the subject?
The other one was so silly " Rich people have money and are willing to give it to someone who will help them".
Does anyone expect anything else to happen?

Certainly, if we do not allow it to happen. And that is something we can do something about -- if we can just get a POTUS (or a succession of them) who will get us a SCOTUS that will overturn Buckley v. Valeo. There are lots of thriving democracies where it is largely impossible, because illegal, for anyone to influence the outcome of an election by spending money on it.

[BrainGlutton]

Originally Posted by Terr

Regardless of the sources, the two parties are about equal in their fundraising.

Barrett has the same funding as Walker?! Cite?! Everything I've read to date about this recall says Walker has a lot more, not counting superPAC money.

[Terr]

Originally Posted by BrainGlutton

Barrett has the same funding as Walker?! Cite?! Everything I've read to date about this recall says Walker has a lot more, not counting superPAC money.

I gave the cite up thread and quoted from it.

[elucidator]

Originally Posted by FE3O4ENAIL

I hope the truth and myself are not strangers.

Walkers war on the middle class seems overstated.
I work in a non union shop, as does my wife. We have good pay and benefits.
Is that uncommon?

How would we define the terms? What would be "common"? Would it be fair to say that most, if not all, of the benefits currently enjoyed by workers are the result of the labor movement? Or do you dream that child labor laws, social security and pensions simply dropped from the kindly and humane hands of employers? History suggests otherwise.

However, if the sum total of your political viewpoints is "I've got mine", I don't see how any further discussion could be useful.

[elucidator]

...and quoted from it.

Yes, you did quote from it. Rather selectively, point of fact.

[BrainGlutton]

Originally Posted by Terr

I gave the cite up thread and quoted from it.

The cite in post #184 don't apply, we're talking Walker v. Barrett.

[BrainGlutton]

But I got one that does.

Between March 20 of this year, just before launching his campaign, and May 7, the eve of the primary, Barrett raised $1.1 million, including reported late contributions, state Government Accountability Board records show. About $60,000 came from political action committees, particularly the International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers and the Wisconsin Professional Police Association. The rest — a cool $1 million — was from individuals.

That’s not a lot of money, compared to the more than $25 million Walker has taken in (and mostly spent) since becoming governor. And while Barrett’s fundraising will surely spike now that he’s secured the nomination, it’s instructive to examine how he’s done so far, compared to his opponent.

During this seven-week period, Barrett garnered more than 6,200 individual contributions, compared to Walker’s 46,500. Walker had 58 donations of $10,000 or more, including 23 above the usual $10,000 limit, which under state law is suspended for officials facing recall. Barrett had 14 donors who maxed out at $10,000.

In fact, Walker’s top five donors gave more than all of Barrett’s 6,200. This includes $500,000 from Diane Hendricks, a Beloit businesswoman whom Walker in January 2011 told of his plan to “use divide and conquer” toward public employee unions.

Barrett’s receipts include just about $130,000 from people in other states, 13 percent of his total. Walker, in this seven-week period, took in $4.1 million from out-of-state donors, which was 64 percent of the $6.4 million he received in individual donations.

Attorneys are a big part of Barrett’s funding base, donating $222,000 through May 7, nearly a quarter of his take from individuals. Walker during this time secured about $80,000 from people listed as belonging to the legal profession, less than 1 percent of his total.

Contributors identified as CEO, chairman or president gave Walker more than $1.1 million during this period, and only $134,000 to Barrett. Walker got seven donations totaling $442 from people identified as “Unemployed” — compared to 26 donations totaling $10,785 for Barrett.

[Terr]

Originally Posted by BrainGlutton

But I got one that does.

What a dishonest piece of crap.

Compares money collected by Barrett for a month and a half with money collected by Walker for a year and a half. Then goes on to compare money collected by Barrett as a primary candidate to Walker who was collecting it for general election.

Try again.