Scott Walker recall takes an unexpected turn.

[FE3O4ENAIL]

Originally Posted by elucidator

Would it be fair to say that most, if not all, of the benefits currently enjoyed by workers are the result of the labor movement?

Yes.
Do you think corporate forces could make us go back to the conditions that existed in the late 1800s-early 1900s?

[BrainGlutton]

Originally Posted by FE3O4ENAIL

Yes.
Do you think corporate forces could make us go back to the conditions that existed in the late 1800s-early 1900s?

I think they would if they could.

[BrainGlutton]

Originally Posted by Terr

What a dishonest piece of crap.

Compares money collected by Barrett for a month and a half with money collected by Walker for a year and a half. Then goes on to compare money collected by Barrett as a primary candidate to Walker who was collecting it for general election.

Try again.

"That’s not a lot of money, compared to the more than $25 million Walker has taken in (and mostly spent) since becoming governor." That is to say, for this recall. Walker has collected orders-of-magnitude more money for this recall. And the key difference, which you have ignored, is in who is giving it.

[waterj2]

Originally Posted by BrainGlutton

I think they would if they could.

We recently had (putatively) serious presidential candidate propose using child labor to break up the school janitor unions. The right-wing's willingness to repeal every progressive advance of the twentieth century is limited only by what they think they can get away with at any given time. The further they move the needle, the easier it makes it to talk about the next step.

[BigAppleBucky]

Originally Posted by Terr

http://host.madison.com/wsj/news/loc...9bb2963f4.html

Altogether, an estimated $86.8 million surged into Wisconsin campaigns and political groups between Jan. 1, 2011 — two days before Walker took office — and April 23 of this year, according to campaign finance statements filed with the state Government Accountability Board.

The period covers the first 16 months of Walker’s tenure, including his controversial measure to effectively eliminate public sector collective bargaining, which turned the state into a national battleground and sparked 15 recall elections.

The bulk of that money — $81.5 million — was split almost exactly in half between Democratic candidates and affiliated organizations, and Republican candidates and their affiliated groups.
...
“The perception out there is that the Republicans are much more flush with cash, and that isn’t supported here,” Cramer Walsh said.

More from Terr's cite:

Despite Gov. Scott Walker’s huge fundraising advantage heading into next month’s recall election . . .

It found that most of the out-of-state money — and most of the big-dollar contributions — have gone to Republican candidates and allied groups, while donations to Democrats and unions’ political action committees have come overwhelmingly from within Wisconsin.

The Democratic Party of Wisconsin strongly criticized the State Journal’s analysis because it looked only at money coming in and did not examine spending, particularly in the governor’s race. According to figures provided by the party, spending by the Walker campaign and pro-Walker groups since May 1 is running 5-1 in the governor’s favor.

Walker v Barrett is still heavily funded in favor of Walker. Probably because he's been able to raise money since November and Barrett started a couple of weeks ago.

[BigAppleBucky]

The BLS puts out 3 different sets of data to show the jobs picture. As with any data set, there's a tradeoff between relevance and reliability. For example, CPS/CES are the most relevant (read: timely) and QCEW is the most reliable (read: comprehensive and accurate).

1) CPS - Current Population Survey (AKA household survey). Surveys a sample of households and extrapolates the findings to the entire population. This data is used to determing the size of the labor force, # employed, # unemployed, and thus calculate the unemployment rate. THIS is the data set that could potentially capture jobs that are in bordering states -- i.e. the data at the guy wrote that Forbes article about.

2) CES - Current Employment Statistics (AKA establishment survey). Surveys a sample of businesses and extrapolates the findings to the population. This is the data set commonly quoted for month to month nonfarm job gains/losses. The data is benchmarked annually against QCEW findings. Since this is a small sample that is extrapolated to a large population, it is highly susceptible to revisions.

3) QCEW - Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages. This data is the most comprehensive and serves as the benchmark. This IS the official word as to what happened (as far as the BLS is concerned). Nearly all employers are surveyed and required to report the accurate numbers as that is what unemployment insurance programs in the country use. As this is the most comprehensive and exhaustive survey of the 3, it is released with a significant lag. On June 28th, the BLS will release the data for Q4 - 2011.

All of these data sets come from collaborations between the states and BLS. States do the polling/surveying and submit the findings to the BLS. The numbers released by the DWD yesterday were Wisconsin's submission to the BLS for the 4Q 2011 QCEW. When the BLS report is released on June 28th, we'll be able to see any revisions that BLS made.

As for April's CES numbers - not good. Nobody wants to see -4900, obviously. Do note that March's job number was revised UP by 7300 jobs and instead of the original loss of 4500 nonfarm jobs, it now shows a GAIN of 2800 jobs. Keep an eye on the revisions going forward and, most importantly, keep an eye on the QCEW when it get's released for 4Q 2011 and 1Q 2012. That will tell us the real story.

The numbers I cited from the BLS above were the CES figures. When the CES figures turned sour, Walker used the CPS but now may be citing the Q4 QCEW figures. Assuming he's not lying (which he's been known to do as cited above), then job growth for the state was 23K in 2011, which is positive, though not on schedule to meet his 150,000 promise.

[PhiloVance]

We recently had (putatively) serious presidential candidate propose using child labor to break up the school janitor unions. The right-wing's willingness to repeal every progressive advance of the twentieth century is limited only by what they think they can get away with at any given time. The further they move the needle, the easier it makes it to talk about the next step.

I'd really like a link for that.

[Oldeb]

Gingrich really did propose just that.


And here's the state of Missouri considering repealing Child Labor Laws.

[Terr]

Originally Posted by BrainGlutton

"That’s not a lot of money, compared to the more than $25 million Walker has taken in (and mostly spent) since becoming governor." That is to say, for this recall. Walker has collected orders-of-magnitude more money for this recall. And the key difference, which you have ignored, is in who is giving it.

Since becoming governor. That is a year and a half. And they are comparing it to a month and a half of Barrett's.

[BrainGlutton]

Originally Posted by PhiloVance

I'd really like a link for that.

It was Gingrich.

[BrainGlutton]

Originally Posted by Terr

Since becoming governor. That is a year and a half. And they are comparing it to a month and a half of Barrett's.

So what?

[Terr]

Originally Posted by BrainGlutton

So what?

Dishonest crap.

[BrainGlutton]

Originally Posted by Terr

Dishonest crap.

There's nothing "dishonest" about that story, it only reports the facts. Nothing implies that Walker has not been fundraising longer -- of course he has, he knew the recall was coming long before the Dems even knew who their candidate would be. But the important thing is where each candidate is getting his money -- there's an important difference there, and it's no "dishonest crap" to point it out.

[Omg a Black Conservative]

Originally Posted by Fear Itself

And when he loses?

1.) Answer my question first.

2.) I feel supremely confident in saying he won't. With two weeks to go and Walker having between a 5 and 9 point lead over Barret with around 4% of voters undecided, it's going to take a mini-miracle for Barret to pull it out.

[BrainGlutton]

Originally Posted by Omg a Black Conservative

So if (when) Walker wins the recall election, what will be the excuse?

Funding.

[BrainGlutton]

From The Nation:

. . . If Walker and his allies are removed from office, the results will be seen across the country as a rejection of the false premise that cutting taxes for the rich while attacking unions and slashing services will somehow spur job growth. Walker promised that his policies would create 250,000 jobs. Instead of growth, the governor’s austerity agenda has brought about what the Bureau of Labor Statistics identifies as the worst pattern of job losses in the nation. Walker’s Democratic challenger, Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett, argues that the governor abandoned fiscal common sense and “created an ideological civil war…in the State of Wisconsin.”

Barrett, who handily won a crowded Democratic primary on May 8, is Walker’s opposite. Former Senator Russ Feingold hails Barrett, a former Congressman, as “a lifelong progressive [who]… stood with me in voting against the deregulation that led to the Wall Street crash, opposing the Patriot Act, and reforming our system of campaign finance.” Barrett also broke with Democratic and Republican presidents to oppose NAFTA and champion labor rights. But the Democrat is not just ideologically distinct from Walker. Whereas Walker’s a my-way-or-the-highway pol, Barrett is known for getting people to work together. Though his pragmatic approach to balancing budgets frustrated some local unions in Milwaukee and led to a split in the labor movement over whom to back in the primary, Barrett has now united unions and the party in the campaign to defeat Walker.

The challenge is that Republicans are also united, not just in Wisconsin but nationally, in their support for a governor hailed by Mitt Romney as a hero and role model. Barrett spent around $1 million to win his primary; Walker has already burned through $21 million, and his billionaire backers have spent millions more on “independent” ads. The unprecedented spending on behalf of Walker and his allies has made these recall elections an example of what campaigning has come to look like in the Citizens United era: Democrats can’t hope to match the staggering level of corporate cash raised by the GOP, so they will have to accelerate grassroots organizing and get-out-the-vote drives. Wisconsin will test the prospect that people power might yet beat money power. Despite Walker’s cash advantage, his approval ratings are declining, and Barrett is running even with him in most polls. Why? Some of it has to do with the state’s stagnant economy, as well as corruption scandals that have led to felony charges against Walker aides and donors. But Walker’s big money from outside Wisconsin could probably spin those challenges away. What’s tripping him up is the fury of organized labor—which is providing some of the resources to fight the TV wars and is most focused on a massive voter mobilization campaign—combined with the tens of thousands of grassroots Wisconsinites who are determined to oust the governor.

[elucidator]

...Wisconsin will test the prospect that people power might yet beat money power....

From your lips to the Ears....

[Omg a Black Conservative]

Originally Posted by BrainGlutton

Funding.

So Democrats bought the two seats they won in last year's Wisconsin recall election?

[Omg a Black Conservative]

NVM

[Lobohan]

Originally Posted by Omg a Black Conservative

So Democrats bought the two seats they won in last year's Wisconsin recall election?

As I recall the funding was about equal then. And the seats where the lost were in super-conservative districts, where the mechanics of a Dem winning were nearly impossible.

So in a toss-up district with equal funding they did well.

[pinqy]

Originally Posted by BigAppleBucky

The BLS puts out 3 different sets of data to show the jobs picture. As with any data set, there's a tradeoff between relevance and reliability. For example, CPS/CES are the most relevant (read: timely) and QCEW is the most reliable (read: comprehensive and accurate).

You forgot Business Employment Dynamics (BED), Job Openings and Layoffs Survey (JOLTS) and Occupational Employment Statistics (OES). And then there's the National Compensation Survey, but that's a little different.

2) CES - Current Employment Statistics (AKA establishment survey). Surveys a sample of businesses and extrapolates the findings to the population. This is the data set commonly quoted for month to month nonfarm job gains/losses. The data is benchmarked annually against QCEW findings. Since this is a small sample that is extrapolated to a large population, it is highly susceptible to revisions.

It's actually a large sample, approx 428,000 establishments (way larger than the CPS which is not revised). But because the reference period is the Pay Period that contains the 12th, and because there are multiple rounds of collection (due to a lot of late reporting) there are 2 revisions.

All of these data sets come from collaborations between the states and BLS. States do the polling/surveying and submit the findings to the BLS.

Not quite. The CPS is conducted by the Census Bureau for BLS. The Local Area Unemployment data (states and metro areas) are a Fed-State collaboration because, while 60,000 households is fine for the National numbers, the sample from each state/metro area is too small and must be supplemented with admin data from the states.

The CES is all BLS. The QCEW is a Fed-State Program based on UI records.

[RTFirefly]

Originally Posted by FE3O4ENAIL

Yes.
Do you think corporate forces could make us go back to the conditions that existed in the late 1800s-early 1900s?

They're already gutting the 40-hour week in a bunch of different ways.

[Bricker]

Originally Posted by BrainGlutton

From The Nation:

So I imagine the reverse is also true? If Walker and his allies retain office, the results will be seen across the country as approval for the premise that cutting taxes for the rich while attacking unions and slashing services will spur job growth?

Or does it work only one way?

[BrainGlutton]

Originally Posted by Bricker

So I imagine the reverse is also true? If Walker and his allies retain office, the results will be seen across the country as approval for the premise that cutting taxes for the rich while attacking unions and slashing services will spur job growth?

Or does it work only one way?

It will be taken as a sign that perhaps people power can't beat money power after all, not in this year of grace.

[BigAppleBucky]

Originally Posted by Lobohan

As I recall the funding was about equal then. And the seats where the lost were in super-conservative districts, where the mechanics of a Dem winning were nearly impossible.

So in a toss-up district with equal funding they did well.

In one of the districts the Republican incumbant got caught hiring his mistress for a job on his staff. His own wife signed the recall petition against him. I have a vague recollection of the other loser not being well liked.

Just trying to say that specific on the ground circumstances often govern these things.

A big rap on Walker is that he is widely seen as extremely divisive and not to be trusted.

Walker retained the endorsement of the Milwaukee Journal which basically said he wasn't bad enough to recall. He lost the endorsements of the police and firefighters unions.
http://www.jsonline.com/news/opinion...152111305.html

[PhiloVance]

Originally Posted by Oldeb

Gingrich really did propose just that.


And here's the state of Missouri considering repealing Child Labor Laws.

I remember the Gingrich proposal, it's not like he was advocating hard work, just work. Nothing in his proposal intending to break up the union, that was pure conjecture on the author of that posts part.

This is the part I'd like a cite on:

The right-wing's willingness to repeal every progressive advance of the twentieth century is limited only by what they think they can get away with at any given time.

Let the author reply this time.

[Sinaptics]

Originally Posted by PhiloVance

This is the part I'd like a cite on: Let the author reply this time.

Do you really want a list of every progressive advance from 1900-2000 and any steps taken by Republicans to repeal them? Or are you willing to accept that this can be construed (by anyone not obsessed with pedantry) as a generalization?

[BigT]

Originally Posted by PhiloVance

I remember the Gingrich proposal, it's not like he was advocating hard work, just work.

His proposal was to have the kids do a job that a paid staff of adults were doing now. That still falls afoul of child worker laws. Your distinction between "hard work" and "work" are irrelevant.

And I agree that a whole list is ridiculous. You should set smaller goals, like listing, say, five or so big advances that were subsequently challenged by at least a proposed bill.

[FE3O4ENAIL]

Originally Posted by RTFirefly

They're already gutting the 40-hour week in a bunch of different ways.

So salaried people don't get overtime. Corporations sure are gutting federal law with that bit of news.
Do you have a point other than that?

[FE3O4ENAIL]

Originally Posted by BrainGlutton

I think they would if they could.

Could you list the corporations who you feel could get away with it without backlash?

[Oldeb]

Originally Posted by PhiloVance

This is the part I'd like a cite on: Let the author reply this time.

Did I forget to raise my hand?
Or is it because I'm hurting his participation grade?

Child Labor has already been mentioned, and this thread is because of attacks on unions. So in addition to those:
Labor Rights Under Republican Attack
GOP War on Workers' Rights
Republican Transportation Bill Strips Workers of Pay Protection - Lowers minimum wage, removes overtime pay
Missouri GOP Pushes Revised Bill on Worker Discrimination - Limits protection for whistleblowers, including protection from being fired in retaliation.
Kansas GOP Overhauling State Labor Laws - Reduces workplace safety standards, limits workers' compensation
Workforce Democracy and Fairness Act - Ironically named, guts the National Labor Relations Board
In ‘message’ to big business, Maine governor LePage orders labor mural removed - My favorite. A mural depicting gains in worker protections is being removed because it makes employers sad.

[BrainGlutton]

Originally Posted by FE3O4ENAIL

Could you list the corporations who you feel could get away with it without backlash?

They're doing it now; see post #231 above. Dollars to Dope a lot of that legislation if not all of it was crafted by heavily-corpo-funded ALEC, and proposed by legislators who live in corporate pockets. The anti-Walker backlash, etc., is as good as it gets, right now, and might fail.

[elucidator]

Originally Posted by FE3O4ENAIL

Could you list the corporations who you feel could get away with it without backlash?

Alphabetically? Well, gonna take a while.

Aardvark Holding Company
Aaron Burr Firearm Insurance Co....

Its not necessarily lash and backlash, that's not how these things are done, they are done not in chomps but in nibbles. An hour of overtime marked as an hour of straight time, nibble. Raising the assembly line pace 5 percent, nibble. You know the drill, anybody who has ever worked knows the drill. And its their drill. You see, Andy, they is the augur and you is the augeree, and they will either augur you a new one or core out the one you already have.

Because they have to! They have to remain competitive, its not like they want to, they do it mournfully and with damp sorrow. The Free Market, blessings and peace be upon its Name, compels them to such hard-nosed decisions! In fact, the ability to make such sternly realistic decisions is why they deserve to make a thousand times the hourly wage of Joe Schmuck. Takes a special kind of person.

But lash, and backlash? Heavens no, thrashing will not be necessary unless morale fails to improve.

[BigAppleBucky]

https://sites.google.com/site/grassrootstvwi/home

Pro-Walker yard signs are gigantic.

Pro-Barrett signs are handmade. (see link)

We know that the Koch brothers and Americans for Prosperity are pumping mega-sums into Gov. Scott Walker’s treasury, paying for glossy and expensive TV ads. We have another idea – “Grassroots TV”.

People's memories are short. In the next 6 weeks, leading up to the June 5th election, we want them to see daily reminders of what Scott Walker has done to the state we love.

Homemade signs on lawns, in windows, at curbsides, or displayed at public events throughout your community - that's GrassRoots TV.

Blogging about how the state has become divided under Walker:
http://timmorrissey.blogspot.com/201...1_archive.html

[Terr]

Originally Posted by BigAppleBucky

https://sites.google.com/site/grassrootstvwi/home

Pro-Walker yard signs are gigantic.

Pro-Barrett signs are handmade. (see link)

Ah that explains why pro-Barrett people are stealing Walker signs. Or burning them.

[elucidator]

Official statement of renounce, denounce, and condemn. There. Anything else?

[BrainGlutton]

Originally Posted by elucidator

Official statement of renounce, denounce, and condemn. There. Anything else?

Yeah, you have to put that burnt sign back together! [hands elucidator tweezers and glue]

[gamerunknown]

Does Walker smell like sulfur? No need to assume malevolence on the party of the Barrett supporters if so.

[BigAppleBucky]

http://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fb...type=3&theater

http://rocknetroots.blogspot.com/

Some Janesville residents got a surprise on Sunday when they picked up their copy of the Janesville Gazette. Either tucked inside the Gazette holder or underneath the paper was a two-sided single page flyer listing names of Janesville school teachers and their salaries.

The "insert" included a form for parent's to signand send in to request that their children do not get assigned to those "radical" teachers.

[FE3O4ENAIL]

Originally Posted by Oldeb

GOP War on Workers' Rights

From the link:
"For three decades after World War II – I call it the “Great Prosperity” – wages rose in tandem with productivity. Americans shared the gains of growth, and had enough money to buy what they produced.

That’s largely due to the role of labor unions. "
Really? It wasn't that we blew up most of the rest of the worlds factories in the war? Labor unions did it. No.

[Fear Itself]

Originally Posted by FE3O4ENAIL

Really? It wasn't that we blew up most of the rest of the worlds factories in the war?

Well, that and the higher marginal tax rates.

[FE3O4ENAIL]

Originally Posted by Fear Itself

Well, that and the higher marginal tax rates.

We should raise tax rates, the question is how far.

[FE3O4ENAIL]

Originally Posted by BigAppleBucky

[url]http://

http://rocknetroots.blogspot.com/

What sounds more likely?
The CRG is...
A fascist militia group operating out of Milwaukee (Blog opinion from the link)


Or (self described):
CRG Network has four goals.
1. Educate citizens on how to successfully engage and manage their government.
2. Motivate fiscal conservatives to vote in increasingly larger numbers.
3. Organize fiscal conservatives into the most influential political force in Wisconsin.
4. Encourage fiscal conservatives to contribute the human and financial resources needed to grow and be successful

[Folacin]

Originally Posted by FE3O4ENAIL

From the link:
"For three decades after World War II – I call it the “Great Prosperity” – wages rose in tandem with productivity. Americans shared the gains of growth, and had enough money to buy what they produced.

That’s largely due to the role of labor unions. "
Really? It wasn't that we blew up most of the rest of the worlds factories in the war? Labor unions did it. No.

The important bit is that "wages rose in tandem with productivity" - that was due to the unions. The selling of great gobs of goods was due to the rest of the world being rubble and the rising American middle class (whose wages rose in tandem with productivity) having the scratch to buy cars, houses, and the gadgets that filled the houses.

I think it's a fairly easy argument that if the unions hadn't been there, most of the profits from increased sales and productivity would have gone to the bosses - and the virtuous cycle wouldn't have gotten started.

[FE3O4ENAIL]

Originally Posted by Folacin

I think it's a fairly easy argument that if the unions hadn't been there, most of the profits from increased sales and productivity would have gone to the bosses - and the virtuous cycle wouldn't have gotten started.

Wiki-"The percentage of workers belonging to a union (or "density") in the United States peaked in 1954 at almost 35%"

Most people didn't belong to a union, but their wages rose. Simple competion for resources (labor) can't explain the rise?

[Folacin]

Originally Posted by FE3O4ENAIL

Wiki-"The percentage of workers belonging to a union (or "density") in the United States peaked in 1954 at almost 35%"

Most people didn't belong to a union, but their wages rose. Simple competion for resources (labor) can't explain the rise?

I'd argue (and glad I'm not in Great Debates so I don't need a cite) that the unions established a target. My company might not be unionized, but if the UAW or Steelworkers were getting $10/hr, then I'm probably going to have to offer $7-8, or the workers I need are going to go elsewhere. Further, the unions were able to negotiate work rules and benefits that "leaked out" to the wider work force.

I think that's it's pretty indisputable that the unions led to much improved wages and work conditions prior to the war, so it's reasonable to assume that they maintained that role post-war.

Similarly, with only 35% or so of the workforce unionized, the companies had some leverage to resist union demands.

[Chronos]

Of course simple competition for labor explained the rise. Unions are a major part of that.

[BrainGlutton]

Originally Posted by FE3O4ENAIL

What sounds more likely?
The CRG is...
A fascist militia group operating out of Milwaukee (Blog opinion from the link)


Or (self described):
CRG Network has four goals.
1. Educate citizens on how to successfully engage and manage their government.
2. Motivate fiscal conservatives to vote in increasingly larger numbers.
3. Organize fiscal conservatives into the most influential political force in Wisconsin.
4. Encourage fiscal conservatives to contribute the human and financial resources needed to grow and be successful

Based on this and this, I'd say they're the former, or at least a GOP front group (not quite the same thing), despite CRG's heated denials of that on their own website.

[Bricker]

Walker, who has raised $25 million, has been blanketing Wisconsin with broadcast advertising touting his handling of the economy. His Democratic opponent, Tom Barrett, who did not win his party's primary until May 8, has raised only $1 million and not been able to match the blitz. The most recent public poll on the race released last week showed Walker leading by 6 points.

"I feel like Walker does have the momentum," said Michael Brown, who was among those who organized the petition drive that netted more than 900,000 signatures to force the recall vote. "It's up to the people of Wisconsin to push back."

From http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/0...n_1534518.html

Is anyone in this thread predicting a Barrett win?

I am going to daringly predict a Walker win.

[elucidator]

Gov Walker must be so grateful, what with the flood of donations from the "common people" of Wisconsin, the small donors that so clearly reflect the will of the people, and help him to turn back the wave of outstate contributions from Commissar Soros and ACORN plutocrats.