Pujols to the Angels - great deal or fiasco?

[Typo Negative]

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/201...&sct=hp_t11_a2

Just 12 months ago, Angels owner Arte Moreno, having whiffed on Carl Crawford the same way he whiffed on Mark Teixeira, CC Sabathia and Paul Konerko, decried the illogic of high-stakes free agency for a team already carrying a $121 million payroll then.

"You commit $20 million-plus for seven years to one player, you get to a place where, automatically, you're going to take the payroll to $150 million," Moreno said then, "and it just doesn't give you a lot of room. We knew if we add $20 million, it was going to be red ink."



Read more: http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/201...#ixzz1fzRjwJHC

I am torn. Pujols is one of the best hitters in the game. And it's clear he he still has a few great years ahead of him.

But how many? When this contact is up he will be close to my age and my bones creak when I get out of bed. Plus, the Angel's history with big name free agents is not that encouraging. AND, are the Angels now prohibited from making other moves because of the shear size of the contract?

[Typo Negative]

Well, the Angels added C.J. Wilson also.

[ElvisL1ves]

Pujols will still be in his prime in 2012. This just might get them a Series championship then. It's worth a lot of losing afterward to get one of those. IOW, it's worth it.

[markdash]

Probably a little bit of both. It's an overpay, even a significant one, but the difference between a $220 and $250m deal over 10 years is not that huge. A bigger question is whether the Angels really needed to add a guy like Pujols when they had a pretty decent first baseman last year, and numerous other players in the 1B/3B/DH mix.

[Marley23]

I think the Wilson deal is the one that's more likely to go sour. Pujols is nearing the end of his prime, but he is unquestionably great and he gives them a lot of things: at least a couple of great seasons ahead, the abillity to compete for a few titles, more fan interest, and he should bring in more fan interest now and in the future, since he has a shot to challenge for the home run record. They can move some of the other 1B/3B/DH guys to other positions or trade them if they need to.

[Typo Negative]

Adding Pujols and Wilson makes them the favorite to win the AL West, I think. I mean that is an impressive pitching staff and an offensive boost.

[Jas09]

If you're going to overpay, Albert Pujols is exactly the kind of guy you do it for (and, conversely CJ Wilson isn't...).

In the end it's Arte Moreno's money, and he has a lot of it, so if I were an Angels fan I'd be excited. I'm not sure they're as good as the Rangers, but it's much closer now than it was yesterday.

As a Cardinals fan I'm bummed, but understand that St. Louis just doesn't have the kind of revenue opportunities that LA does, and can't afford as much risk. Pujols falling apart two years into this deal will dent the Angels, but it would ruin the Cards.

[markdash]

The Wilson signing was actually quite good. He's been worth at least 4 wins each of the last 2 years, so the Angels are getting a bargain. He also signed for a discount because he wanted to play in LA so badly. (Supposedly, the Marlins offered him 6 years for $99m, which is not only a year longer but a larger AAV than the Angel deal.)

[R. P. McMurphy]

It's a good question. It's a lot of money. It's a gamble. But, . . . Pujols is a superb player.

There is probably a lot of upside just in having a guy like that on the roster. The first test will be the number of season tickets sold for next year. That alone might be huge and hedge the gamble. Remember, the storied Dodger franchise is in turmoil. This may be a case of the Angels sensing a window of opportunity and they've decided to roll the dice.

[Gray Ghost]

Season oWAR Age.

2007 5.8 27
2008 7.8 28
2009 7.7 29
2010 7.4 30
2011 4.5 31

If you're the Angels, you'd better really hope that 2011 is an aberration like 2007. That, and that MLB doesn't develop an effective HGH test...

Not to mention that he gets to enjoy AL pitching now. As an Astros semi-fan suffering through the end of the Carlos Lee deal, I think it was a lunatic contract, but I understand why the Angels did it.

[NAF1138]

My kneejerk reaction was that (likely) 4 guaranteed great years of Pujols wasn't going to be worth the probable 6 years of really bad contract but then I read this article by an ESPN writer who covers the Dodgers that linked the increased publicity of having Pujols coupled with the new TV deal for the Angels might make this contract nowhere near as painful as it seems like it could get. With that in mind I think it probably was a good deal. I don't think they are a lock to win the AL West, Texas is still a damn good team, but they also have a surplus of first basemen and outfielders that they can trade away to help load up their farm system. If they handle this well they could be set for a while even if they don't win a WS, and with their pitching rotation they can easily give Texas a real fight for the AL West title for years to come.

[Stink Fish Pot]

I think St. Louis got lucky. Personally, I don't think Albert has 5 good years left, so to get saddled with a 10 year contract would kill them. Albert is not in the best shape (he's not Prince Fielder, but he's 31 and he is overweight.) His body will start to break down. He did the right thing by going to the American League so he can DH, but $25mm is a lot to pay for a DH. Without steroids, his body won't heal quickly like Bonds' did. And if he's also clean from HGH, then he's going to follow the decline of most larger power hitters... the knees will go first.

I keep reading how the Angels think this will help their global brand and make their franchise worth more. They are expecting at least a $500mm return on this investment, so if that's true, they didn't overpay.

St. Louis will be fine, and they are still the best organization in the National League. For them to pony up $220mm, 10 year deal and not have to pay it is a win-win. The fans can't be mad at the team, and management now has money to spend.

I don't think the Angels will benefit from these moves in the long run. But in the short term (next 2 years), they may make the playoffs and maybe even win a championship. If that's the result, I guess it's worth it.

[Marley23]

Originally Posted by markdash

The Wilson signing was actually quite good. He's been worth at least 4 wins each of the last 2 years, so the Angels are getting a bargain.

He's certainly not bad, but I think he's getting overpaid because he's the best pitcher available in a weak free agent class. Then again, the Angels need more pitching, and maybe it's not overpaying if you're getting what you need.

Originally Posted by Stink Fish Pot

he is overweight.

HUH? I agree that he's eventually going to be a DH, so the AL makes sense, but how is Pujols overweight?

[markdash]

Originally Posted by Marley23

He's certainly not bad, but I think he's getting overpaid because he's the best pitcher available in a weak free agent class. Then again, the Angels need more pitching, and maybe it's not overpaying if you're getting what you need.

Normally, free agent signings are subject to the Winner's Curse, but in this case there was another team offering more money AND more years to Wilson and he still took the Angels' offer. That makes me feel that they offered him a pretty reasonable contract.

[Hamlet]

IS MLB going to start testing for HGH?

[Barkis is Willin']

Originally Posted by Hamlet

IS MLB going to start testing for HGH?

Yes, it's in the new CBA. I don't know if Albert is in danger of failing, but it would carry a 50 game suspension.

[Gray Ghost]

Is the test for HGH that MLB uses even effective or is it more of a fig leaf? I had thought that rigorous HGH testing required the use of a biological passport, like they now use in professional cycling, as HGH's half-life was much too short to identify and that its metabolites and levels of same were indistinguishable from someone not using the hormone. This article explains some of the methodology behind the HGH Isoform test that MLB uses. Of course, the test won't work if alternate isoforms are added to recombinant injectable HGH. I'm sure that hasn't happened... No way that an elite athlete making $10M+/yr will try to find some way to extend the long tail of their career.

The test will catch the stupid and the poor, and it will be something MLB can point to when the next 40 year old performs at an elite level.

[Gray Ghost]

This post at Fangraphs, particularly the comments, go into some detail towards answering the question, "Is Pujols's contract out of line, considering the historical costs and trends for each WAR, and projections of the future rate of monetary inflation?" In my quick scan of them, the comments seemed to indicate that Pujols probably was not overpaid, though the downside risk was a lot greater than the upside.

The comments seem to use WAR, and it feels like everybody generates that statistic in slightly different ways, but they feel that if Pujols get to ~40 WAR over the contract, it will have been worth it.

As I think that inflation is going to raise its ugly head within the next ten years, I tend to agree with those comments. $25 million in 2021 won't feel like the crazy numbers that ARod's Rangers contract yielded.

[Typo Negative]

Originally Posted by Marley23

He's certainly not bad, but I think he's getting overpaid because he's the best pitcher available in a weak free agent class. Then again, the Angels need more pitching, and maybe it's not overpaying if you're getting what you need.


HUH? I agree that he's eventually going to be a DH, so the AL makes sense, but how is Pujols overweight?

I think Stink Fish Pot misspoke. The word he was looking for is BUFF.

http://www.google.com/imgres?imgurl=...ch&um=1&itbs=1

[Ichbin Dubist]

Originally Posted by Marley23

They can move some of the other 1B/3B/DH guys to other positions or trade them if they need to.

Hell, by end of this contract Hideki Matsui and Bobby Abreu will be awaiting the imminent arrival of their AARP cards.

[Stink Fish Pot]

Originally Posted by spooje

I think Stink Fish Pot misspoke. The word he was looking for is BUFF.

http://www.google.com/imgres?imgurl=...ch&um=1&itbs=1

Indeed I did!

You know, I always thought Albert was a bit chunky (not fat, like Prince Fielder), but a guy who had a belly that would only get bigger with age, and wear down his knees. Seeing that picture shows how wrong I am. I'm not close to St. Louis baseball, but my guess is that the uniform he wears is so baggy, maybe I just assumed he was hiding some flab in those baggy shirts and pants.

My apologies to Mr. Pujols. You are not an overweight power hitter.

He must be using HGH then.

[Least Original User Name Ever]

They're the favorites to win it all, I'd say (as of today).

[Hawkeyeop]

i suspect it will be similar to the Mets signing Piazza. Pujols will never be quite as good as he was for the Cardinals, and the last couple of seasons will be expensive right had, but he will provide enough value that in the end the Angels will think it was worth doing.

[pseudotriton ruber ruber]

Difference being, the Mets needed Piazza to be an everyday catcher the full length of his contract, and when he began to fizzle out in year 4 or 5 they kept batting him cleanup, even when he was obviously a #5 or #6 or even #7 kind of batter. The Angels will be able to put Pujols at DH, and I think they're smart enough to recognize that a guy who hits .275 and 20 HRs a year can play, just not at cleanup for a pennant-winning team.

[RickJay]

To my surprise I'm agreeing with Elvisl1ves. The Angels basically paid what it required to get Albert in 2012, 2013, and 2014, with an eye to beating the Rangers by adding Pujols and C.J. Wilson. If Wilson is healthy that's a monstrous amount of value being added.

That Pujols didn't have a great 2011 (although most of his slump was at the beginning of the season) is perhaps illustrative of the point; when Albert Pujols has a BAD year, he's still as good a player as Prince Fielder. In terms of risk, the Angels signed basically the lowest risk player in baseball for 2012; even at 32, Pujols's low end expectation is "a really, really good hitter, and by the way a good fielder too." This will make the Angels a better team. If it only makes them better by 3 or 4 games that will be a little disappointing but it's still good, and it could make them better by a lot more than that.

This deal could be a horrible anchor in 2019, but as has been pointed out, it's Arte Moreno's money, and this is a move designed to win today. The Angels are rich and getting richer and for all we know by 2019 $25 million might not be that much.

[ElvisL1ves]

Originally Posted by RickJay

To my surprise I'm agreeing with Elvisl1ves.

There is hope for you yet, isn't there? The personal snark stuff, such as that, still needs more work, though.

Why is the notion that you can actually build a team to win the Series, not merely to hope to make the playoffs, so alien to some?

[sitchensis]

The tail end of the contract could be paid for with him chasing records. Even if he’s only hitting 20HRs a year as a DH, the club will probably sell a good amount of season tickets and get a few more dollars on a TV contract if he is able to make a play for a “clean” HR record.

[markdash]

Originally Posted by sitchensis

The tail end of the contract could be paid for with him chasing records. Even if he’s only hitting 20HRs a year as a DH, the club will probably sell a good amount of season tickets and get a few more dollars on a TV contract if he is able to make a play for a “clean” HR record.

Unfortunately, the thing that drives ticket sales more than anything else is a good won/loss record, specifically playoff appearances. Making big free agent signings or players chasing records doesn't make much of a difference (if any).

[NAF1138]

Originally Posted by markdash

Unfortunately, the thing that drives ticket sales more than anything else is a good won/loss record, specifically playoff appearances. Making big free agent signings or players chasing records doesn't make much of a difference (if any).

In most markets that is true, but LA has more than its share of fans just waiting to join a bandwagon. I read that season ticket sales are already up a significant amount for next season. And the new TV deal that allows them to spend like this is nuts. The more I think about it the more sense this move makes for a team like The Angels. It would make a lot less sense for other teams, but the Angels are in the perfect position to make this move.

[RickJay]

Originally Posted by NAF1138

In most markets that is true, but LA has more than its share of fans just waiting to join a bandwagon. I read that season ticket sales are already up a significant amount for next season.

The Angels were very close to capacity anyway, and that in a season when they were out of the race most of the time. There really aren't many more tickets to sell.

[fluiddruid]

Originally Posted by ElvisL1ves

There is hope for you yet, isn't there? The personal snark stuff, such as that, still needs more work, though.

This is out of line. If you're posting to criticize another user or make personal comments of this nature, that has no place in this forum. Even viewed in the most charitable light, it's off-topic and very likely to hijack a thread if responded to in kind. Take it to the Pit if you feel you must, but keep comments like this out of The Game Room.

[Typo Negative]

Anybody changed their minds about this, given the horrendous start?
http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/stats/.../albert-pujols

The entire offense is dismal

012 REGULAR SEASON RANKINGS
RUNS
162 26th Overall
BATTING AVERAGE
.248 15th Overall
ON BASE PERCENTAGE
.304 25th Overall
SLUGGING PCT
.373 23rd Overall

C.J. Wilson seems pretty solid:
ERA W-L SO WHIP
2.90 5-4 54 1.15

[gazpacho]

I saw the Angels play in San Diego last week. As is usual when LA teams visit San Diego the visiting fans outnumbered the San Diego fans. There was a fair amount of booing when Pujols came up to bat. I don't think it was the San Diego fans booing. So I think the Angles fans are pretty disappointed with Pujols so far.

[markdash]

Of course it looks bad right now, but he's Albert Pujols. He will turn it around. He will probably not earn the money they're paying him over the course of the contract, but that's something everybody knew when he signed.

[Marley23]

The start he got off to was really shocking even though his numbers have been in decline for a couple of seasons. He seems to be turning it around now, and it goes without saying that he has not been their only problem on offense. He should still give them some really good years, and judging a 10-year contract based on two months is not going to work. Even if he'd been killing it for two months, we'd still know that it's only two months out of 10 seasons and that over time he'll decline and be worth far less than $24 million a year late in this decade.

[RickJay]

His batting average ten games ago was .212. Now it's .209. He's hit three more homers in those games but that's the only good thing you can say about him.

After 44 games Pujols has been flat out terrible and the peripherals are not promising; his K/W rate is the worst it's even been, no power, no average. It's very alarming.

[NAF1138]

Watch some of the breakdowns of his swing and take a look at some of the hit charts that are coming out and you will see that a lot of stuff he used to crush is turning into ground balls and foul balls. To me that says his bat speed is down, which is going to happen as he gets older. He can adjust, but I don't think he is ever really going to be the same.

[Marley23]

Last week I saw a little video analysis that suggests he's not getting as much traction with his back foot. He's definitely swinging at more pitches out of the strike zone because he's pressing and he seems to have lost balance. Combine all of that and you have a mess. Meanwhile today he's 3-for-3 with a homer, for whatever that's worth.

[RickJay]

Originally Posted by Marley23

Last week I saw a little video analysis that suggests he's not getting as much traction with his back foot. He's definitely swinging at more pitches out of the strike zone because he's pressing and he seems to have lost balance. Combine all of that and you have a mess. Meanwhile today he's 3-for-3 with a homer, for whatever that's worth.

It's hard to separate a loss of physical ability from a guy who's just pressing and out of sync. Four weeks ago Jose Bautista looked awful, but he was his own worst enemy and was just out of sorts. Now all of a sudden he looks great again. It could be Pujols just needs a few good games to get into a groove.

Still, you have to think the Angels are panicking. They have a huge amount of money tied up in a small number of players. Vernon Wells is a disaster. Even they can't afford too many of those.

[Marley23]

Wells had had several disastrous years under that contract when they traded for him. I still don't get that one.

[kunilou]

Being a Cardinal fan who had my nose bent out of shape when Pujols signed with LAAoA, it pains me to say this, but he'll get better.

Pujols has often been a streaky hitter (although 44 games is a long slump), plus he's facing all-new pitching. Of course he's pressing, which doesn't help things.

I'm not ready to say Nyah-nyah to Angels fans yet.

[Procrustus]

He did fine against the Mariners last night. No surprise. Sigh.

[ElvisL1ves]

So does everyone.

[astorian]

THIS year, it's far too early to tell if the contract is a disaster. Pujols could still have a very good season, and may yet have SEVERAL great seasons. I won't be a bit surprised if he does.

But over the LONG run? Definitely a disaster. There's absolutely no way Pujols will have ENOUGH great seasons to justify the money he gets.

My Yankees have a LOT of bad contracts like this one- A. Rod's, most notably. Both A. Rod and Pujols will be collecting huge checks LONG after they're remotely desrving.

[Marley23]

The fact that they are going to keep getting paid after their productivity falls off doesn't make the contract a disaster. There's no other way to get that player for the earlier, strong years, so that's part of the price of the deal.

[furt]

Originally Posted by Marley23

The fact that they are going to keep getting paid after their productivity falls off doesn't make the contract a disaster. There's no other way to get that player for the earlier, strong years, so that's part of the price of the deal.

I think the point is: then don't get the player.


I thought it was a bad deal at the signing, and would still think so even if he was hitting at 2009 levels right now. Even money he's playing for the Yankees in 2017.

[Marley23]

Originally Posted by furt

I think the point is: then don't get the player.

That'd be a workable strategy if everybody agreed not to give free agents these kinds of contracts, but since they don't...

[astorian]

Originally Posted by Marley23

The fact that they are going to keep getting paid after their productivity falls off doesn't make the contract a disaster. There's no other way to get that player for the earlier, strong years, so that's part of the price of the deal.

Paying $25 million a year for a long time after a star player has gone downhill may be standard operating procedure these days, but it's STILL a lousy deal.

[silenus]

Originally Posted by Marley23

That'd be a workable strategy if everybody agreed not to give free agents these kinds of contracts, but since they don't...

If everybody agreed to not give these contracts, it would be collusion and the owners would get sued into oblivion. What is needed is for market forces to act, and if Pujols and those like him keep tanking their big contracts, maybe that will start to happen.

[Marley23]

Originally Posted by silenus

What is needed is for market forces to act, and if Pujols and those like him keep tanking their big contracts, maybe that will start to happen.

I was speaking of the teams deciding individually and not colluding, but yes, that's the only way these deals would go away - if practically everybody was convinced they were not worth it and that there is a better way to do business. In recent years more and more teams have locked up their young stars very early with longterm deals- the kind Tampa has given Longoria and others and Baltimore is about to do with Adam Jones. Those deals make much more financial sense, but when a bigger, more established star hits the open market, they're going to ask for more money than the young bucks are getting. So there we find ourselves. It's hard to see this going away unless a lot of things change.