Lotta retirements this cycle (18 Dems, 13 Pubs). Any chance the elections will swing the House back to the Dems?
Very little. Best bet is that the Ds take some of the seats back that they lost in 2010 and shrink the R majority significantly. In the Senate I’d say something close to 50-50 is the most likely outcome.
Gabby Giffords is retiring too, now. One less Dem incumbent.
Given the circumstances leading to her retirement, though, I would expect her constituents to be sympathetic to the idea of replacing her with another Democrat.
And there have been an awful lot of Republican politicians making themselves awfully unpopular lately… I wouldn’t be at all surprised if the Democrats take back the House.
Yes, it’s not often a politician can honestly claim to have been wounded in the line of duty.
Their advantage is too big, the Republicans will likely lose a significant amount of seats but not nearly enough to lose the house.
Right now, this looks like the most likely scenario.
I think the OWSers, if they were to solidly commit to getting Dems elected, could have a positive effect. I don’t know if they’re going to do that, but I’m sure they’re going to do something this year.
Let me be the first to predict a Democratic landslide in 2012. A boatload of the Teahadists elected in 2010 were from districts that Obama won in 2008. If Obama runs against Gingrich, his coattails will be enough to get rid of most of those freshmen. Republican obstructionism will end up biting them in the ass this year. Give the gavel back to Nancy Pelosi, matter of fact you can surgically attach it to her.
The Democrats had an even bigger majority in 2009 than the Republican have today. 63 seats flipped to Republicans in 2010. If 25 seats flip back to the Democrats, Nancy Pelosi is speaker of the house again. I don’t see why its so out of the realm of possibility.
I also happen to think the Democrats can keep the senate and Mitch McConnell will be more reasonable.
I think the Democrats underestimate the OWS and the youth vote generally, just like the Republicans have overestimated the Tea Party and the John Bircher vote generally.
The Republicans can certainly be said to have an advantage in the Senate, given that most of the seats up this cycle are Democrats. But in the House, where everyone has to run for re-election, I don’t see how either party can have an advantage.
Birchers?! Are they still around?!
The JBS was a co-sponsor of the 2010 Conservative Political Action Conference, ending its decades-long exile from the mainstream conservative movement.
They came back with the Tea Party.
So with the Obama vs. TeaBaggers in 2012, suppose a fair number of centrist Republicans decide to run.
- Can they win the primaries or would the Reps vote for right-wing as usual?
- Could they win in a general election?
- Could we have our second ever coalition House or even a Speaker from the minority party?
Retracted.
Due to redistricting, I was moved from a Democratic congressional district (Nashville/Davidson County) to a Republican one.
I don’t really have a point I guess I just wanted to bitch about it.
Interesting questions. It may be that some centrist Pubbies take on some of the right wing Freshman Rs. If they do:
1- No, I think the right wingers would always take the more extremists of the pair. Anything remotely centrist in the Republican Party is dwarfed by the energy of the right.
2- If they could survive the primary, they might keep the seat in party hands. But that’s a big if.
3- No, we’ll never see a coaltion since the Teabaggers would always caucus with the Rs.
There’s a fairly acrimonious fight going on in Oregon for David Wu’s seat. The Republican might have had a chance except that he ducked paying taxes and paying his employees. He keeps crowing about being a job creator (god, I hate that term) who created 500 jobs. Turns out he had six employees. So basically he’s a liar and a cheat.
While normally your analyses would be correct, the pernicious and shameless gerrymandering that the GOP has been practicing might very well save their ass even if Obama runs the table. Ohio even if the statewide popular vote for the house is 55:45 Obama, the GOP might still retain a 7-5 edge in seats.
Gerrymandering is the tool of the devil.