How scary is the Muslim Brotherhood?

[BrainGlutton]

It looks like the Muslim Brotherhood candidate Mohammed Morsy (or Morsi or Moursy, there are variant transliteratons) was one of the top two finishers in the Egyptian presidential election May 23-24, and now will advance to the runoff in June, and might be Egypt's first freely-elected president post-Mubarak or ever. His remaining opponent will be Mubarak's last PM, Ahmed Shafik.

(Probably. There are already street protests, arson of Shafik's Cairo campaign HQ, and demands to nullify the vote for irregularities. A lot of Egyptians apparently don't like having to choose between an old-regime figure and an MB candidate. Hamdeen Sabahi, a lefty-secularist and a longtime opponent of the Mubarak regime, ran third, by official count. Well, be all that as it may . . .)

Now, my initial reaction is, don't panic. Let's keep this in perspective. The MB is not going to stone adulterers or make women quit their jobs and wear burqas. That would be Al-Nour.

As for MB (or, in Egyptian elections, the Freedom and Justice Party):

Political platform

On launching the new party, the Muslim Brotherhood confirmed that it did not object to women or Copts serving in a ministerial post (cabinet),[20] though it deems both "unsuitable" for the presidency.[21] The group supports free-market capitalism, but without "manipulation or monopoly". The party’s political program would include tourism as a main source of national income.[22]

The Freedom and Justice Party will be based on Islamic law, "but will be acceptable to a wide segment of the population," said leading MB member Essam al-Arian.[23] The party’s membership will be open to all Egyptians who accept the terms of its program.[24] The spokesperson for the party said that "when we talk about the slogans of the revolution – freedom, social justice, equality – all of these are in the Sharia (Islamic law)."[25] There is rivalry between the Freedom and Justice Party and the Salafis, who regard the Freedom and Justice Party as having 'watered down' its values.[26]

From what I can see, it's very-more-or-less the Islamic equivalent of Christian democracy. No CD party in Europe wants to reinstate the Inquisition or revive the Crusades. (And no sensible Egyptian wants to get so nasty with Israel that U.S. aid dries up -- I understand we give roughly equal amounts to both countries.) And we have more than a few Republicans in the U.S. (not the majority of them, I think, not any more) whose gorge would rise at the thought of a female POTUS or a non-Christian POTUS. What's sauce for the goose is sauce for the shwarma.

Anyone here think the prospect of a Morsi/MB Administration in Egypt is really something to worry about? A threat to Israel? A threat to Egyptian seculars/women/non-Muslims?

[BrainGlutton]

Election thread in the Elections forum.

The runoff (if it happens as scheduled) will be June 16.

[BrainGlutton]

Morsy reassures women and Coptic Christians he will respect their rights, FWIW.

[Cliffy]

Yeah, I'd say I'm exactly where you are. Not that Egypt (historically, geographically) is in the same place as Continental Europe, but the Christian Democrat analogy is a fair one, I expect. Ultimately, the problem with democracy is that you actually have to let people make the choices, even if you don't think that choices are the right ones.

--Cliffy

[Ibn Warraq]

Do members of the Christian Democrats in Germany call for the killing of German Christians who convert to Islam?

Do they argue that the government should mandate all Germans have their religion stamped on their IDs and that in the case of former Christians it should say "ex-Christian" rather than their actual religion?

Also do Christian Democrata in Germany claim Jews are the descendants of apes and pigs?

[BrainGlutton]

The word "Copt" is just another word for "Egyptian," BTW, but nowadays it is used to mean specifically Coptic Christians. WRT Christology, the Copts are (mostly) monophysites, which makes them heretics to all Catholics, Orthodoxers and Protestants, but there seems to be some foreign coreligionist sympathy for them anyway, at least when Muslims come down on them.

[chappachula]

Originally Posted by Cliffy

the Christian Democrat analogy is a fair one, I expect.

Sorry, but you're living in a fantasy, not the real world.

If you want to use a Christian Democrat analogy--don't look to Europe. Look to America. The good ol' USA has its own "Christian Democrats". Nice, harmless people, right?

Half of the people here at the Dope panic when they think about the consequences of the Tea Party or Pat Robinson, etc. running the country. Forced prayer in schools, banning the teaching of Darwin, no abortions for any reason, no gay rights,etc....
Think about how that would affect your own personal life.... It's pretty scary stuff, right?
But at least you can relax a bit--because the Tea Party would still be limited by the U.S. Constitution, by separation of church and state, etc.

Now imagine Egypt being run, not by a Tea Party , but by the Muslim Brotherhood Party---which is not limited by any constitution or First Ammendment-style documents. Instead they want to write a new constitution for Egyptian society, which will be officially based on Shariah law.

For pragmatic reasons, they won't be able to enforce Saudi-Arabia style religious policing, or Taliban-style treatment of women. Not immediately. They are good enough politicians to realize that they will have to do it gradually, over 10 or 15 years.
In the meantime they'll just start by declaring war on Israel.

[Cliffy]

I'll bet Egypt and Israel do not go to war within 10 years, absent an intervening violent revolution in Egypt, or a preemptive Israeli attack. I'm willing to wager $20. You in?

--Cliffy

[BrainGlutton]

Egypt's emergency law expires, FWIW. And nobody seems to want to renew it.

[BrainGlutton]

Fourth straight night of protests in Tahrir Square, demanding Shafiq and Morsy bow out of the race.

[Mijin]

This could work out very well.

The Muslim Brotherhood is a very influential organization throughout the muslim world, based from Egypt.

If the MB give the people what they want, which appears to be to remain broadly secular, that sets quite an example for MB groups outside of Egypt and other Islamic groups. Much more so than a non-religious party installing secular government.

[heathen earthling]

Originally Posted by Ibn Warraq

Also do Christian Democrata in Germany claim Jews are the descendants of apes and pigs?

There's nothing wrong with being descended from apes.

[XT]

Originally Posted by heathen earthling

There's nothing wrong with being descended from apes.

It's much better to be descended from a common ancestor several million years back, to be honest. You get fire and potentially iPods and stuff if you go that route...

-XT

[PrettyVacant]

Nothing will ever be as scary as George Bush.

[Damuri Ajashi]

Originally Posted by Ibn Warraq

Do members of the Christian Democrats in Germany call for the killing of German Christians who convert to Islam?

Do they argue that the government should mandate all Germans have their religion stamped on their IDs and that in the case of former Christians it should say "ex-Christian" rather than their actual religion?

Also do Christian Democrata in Germany claim Jews are the descendants of apes and pigs?

Considering all the shit going on in other places like Syria, lets wait until they actually start killing apostates; requiring religion to be identified on ID (doesn't Israel do something like this (maybe it was with license plates, Allessan probably knows)?); I thought we were all apes.

I don't know how boilogical classification works but humans are the only species of our genus. In other words we have created a special genus to which only we and our ancestors belong. It seems a bit humanocentric to me.

[Euphonious Polemic]

Originally Posted by Damuri Ajashi

I don't know how boilogical classification works but humans are the only species of our genus. In other words we have created a special genus to which only we and our ancestors belong. It seems a bit humanocentric to me.

<hijack> The classification is based on biology, not for any "humanocentric" reason. There are plenty of examples of animals who are the only one in their genus. In fact, there are many (like the walrus for example) who are the only members in their family (Odobenidae if you want to look it up)

</hijack>

[Ibn Warraq]

Originally Posted by Damuri Ajashi

Considering all the shit going on in other places like Syria, lets wait

We're discussing Egypt so I don't see what the point of that statement is.

Are you trying to make some reference to Hafez and Rifaat's handling of Hama?

requiring religion to be identified on ID

Er,... Egypt already does. You really ought to do research on this part of the world you seem to have such strong opinions about.

lets wait until they actually start killing apostates;

While the Egyptian government does not yet officially execute them, they're heavily discriminated against and, under pressure from the Muslim Brotherhood the Mubarak government did regularly have them arrested for "blasphemy", "immorality", or "insulting Islam" and tortured.

Again, I'm surprised you were unaware of this.

I don't know how boilogical classification works but humans are the only species of our genus. In other words we have created a special genus to which only we and our ancestors belong. It seems a bit humanocentric to me.

This statement makes utterly no sense in regards to what we're discussing.

The claims of Jews being the descendants of apes and pigs isn't based on science or understanding of Darwinian evolution(which the Muslim Brotherhood doesn't believe in) but because of an anti-Semitic hadith which declares Jews to be the descendants of apes and pigs.

[dropzone]

Originally Posted by Ibn Warraq

Also do Christian Democrata in Germany claim Jews are the descendants of apes and pigs?

Well, not anymore.

[Damuri Ajashi]

Originally Posted by Ibn Warraq

You really ought to do research on this part of the world you seem to have such strong opinions about...Again, I'm surprised you were unaware of this.

Meh, I still think you're hyperventilating prematurely. BTW, doesn't Israel also require religious identification on IDs. Why is it so bad for Egypt but peachy keen for Israel?

[Ibn Warraq]

Originally Posted by Damuri Ajashi

Meh, I still think you're hyperventilating prematurely. BTW, doesn't Israel also require religious identification on IDs. Why is it so bad for Egypt but peachy keen for Israel?

If Israel did make such a requirement you'd have a point, but they don't so you don't.

Once more, I'm amazed that someone who cares so much about the Israel-Palestinian conflict knows so little about it.

So anyway, what are your thoughts on Egypt, Syria, and Iran requiring religious identification on all IDs.

I'm a bit confused, because earlier you said "let's wait till they actually require requiring religious identification on their IDs" and now, after being informed they do, you're like "so what".

That attitude strikes me as hypocritical, ignorant, and intellectually inconsistent.

[BrainGlutton]

And then it got worse.

Egyptian liberals have walked out of a meeting to select members of a panel to write the country's new constitution, charging Islamists of trying to take seats allocated for secular parties.

The walkout on Sunday could throw the writing of the constitution, which would lay out the powers of the presidency, into further disarray at a time when uncertainties mar both the course of the presidential runoff election on June 16 and 17 and the legality of parliament.

[Magiver]

Originally Posted by Mijin

This could work out very well.

The Muslim Brotherhood is a very influential organization throughout the muslim world, based from Egypt.

If the MB give the people what they want, which appears to be to remain broadly secular, that sets quite an example for MB groups outside of Egypt and other Islamic groups. Much more so than a non-religious party installing secular government.

What you're describing is a Martin Luther moment in history that would start the ball rolling to separate religion from politics.

The same roadblock exists which is the intensity of belief that drives followers to enforce that belief.

[Kozmik]

Originally Posted by PrettyVacant

Nothing will ever be as scary as George Bush.

Which one?

[BrainGlutton]

Originally Posted by Magiver

What you're describing is a Martin Luther moment in history that would start the ball rolling to separate religion from politics.

The same roadblock exists which is the intensity of belief that drives followers to enforce that belief.

Not an encouraging analogy. Luther kicked off more than a century of religious wars before Age of Reason rolled around.

[Skammer]

Originally Posted by BrainGlutton

Not an encouraging analogy. Luther kicked off more than a century of religious wars before Age of Reason rolled around.

Well yeah, but he felt bad about it.

[voltaire]

Originally Posted by BrainGlutton

Not an encouraging analogy. Luther kicked off more than a century of religious wars before Age of Reason rolled around.

Specifically, his raging antisemitism doesn't lend any encouragement to the analogy, either.

[carnivorousplant]

Originally Posted by voltaire

Specifically, his raging antisemitism doesn't lend any encouragement to the analogy, either.

Oh great, now terrorists are going to be nailing feces to the door!

[Magiver]

Originally Posted by BrainGlutton

Not an encouraging analogy. Luther kicked off more than a century of religious wars before Age of Reason rolled around.

It's not going to happen overnight.

[Alessan]

Egyptian court dissolves Islamist-dominated parliament.


Shit hitting fan in 3, 2, 1...

[BrainGlutton]

Oh, great. The constitutional court just ordered Parliament dissolved.

In another setback for Egypt's fledgling political process, elected officials have been disqualified and the lower house of parliament dissolved.

The court ruled on Thursday that one third of the seats in the Islamist-dominated parliament were invalid, stirring fresh uncertainty in the politically divided country.

The Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF), the country's ruling military council, then announced that if any part of the parliament is illegal, then the entire body should be dissolved.

Egypt's constitutional court also ruled against a law that would have barred deposed president Hosni Mubarak's last prime minister Ahmed Shafiq from standing in this weekend's presidential poll runoff.

After conflicting reports in Egyptian media over whether a third, or the entire, parliament was to be dismissed, Al Jazeera's Rawya Rageh obtained a copy of the court decision, which explicitly states that the entire parliament is dismissed because of "constitutional violations".

[Farmer Jane]

Yes. And a lot of us said it was going to be rocky a year ago and you still argued it was for the best.

[Magiver]

Originally Posted by Farmer Jane

Yes. And a lot of us said it was going to be rocky a year ago and you still argued it was for the best.

In respect to the "Arab Spring" I always thought it was the uncertainty factor of religion/culture/politics that made it so.

The feudal system is so hard to understand from a Western cultural perspective because it relies on local connections which are intertwined with religion, culture and politics. For a Democracy to exist something has to change in the social mindset. Something very radical.

It's not unlike the American revolution which was made up of and fought with local militias loyal to their own group and not a cohesive Federal military institution. The crafting of the US Constitution was an integral step in bringing everybody together under one flag.

[BrainGlutton]

Originally Posted by Magiver

The feudal system is . . .

. . . not something they have.

[Magiver]

Originally Posted by BrainGlutton

. . . not something they have.

tribal, call it what you want. It exists.

[BrainGlutton]

Originally Posted by Farmer Jane

Yes. And a lot of us said it was going to be rocky a year ago and you still argued it was for the best.

Well, it seems what they have there just now is a counterrevolution, i.e., a coup by the military establishment. Better the Ogdamned MB than that!

[Alessan]

Originally Posted by Magiver

tribal, call it what you want. It exists.

Not so much in Egypt, though. Egypt is perhaps the only true nation-state in the Arab world. It doesn't have much of a tradition of democracy, perhaps, but it does have a national unity that's lacking elsewhere.

[XT]

Well, it's probably moot, since the military has basically seized power in a coup, from what I can tell.

-XT

[Magiver]

Originally Posted by Alessan

Not so much in Egypt, though. Egypt is perhaps the only true nation-state in the Arab world. It doesn't have much of a tradition of democracy, perhaps, but it does have a national unity that's lacking elsewhere.

Thanks for the input. That's interesting. What word best describes what I'm referring to in the region? Tribal, clan, ??????

[tagos]

Originally Posted by Magiver

Thanks for the input. That's interesting. What word best describes what I'm referring to in the region? Tribal, clan, ??????

The question is not whether there is a tribal element in Egypt - of course there is. The question is does it impact on voting now.

This article suggests that one consequence of the revolution has been a significant weakening of the influence of tribal elders, at least in the South.

Her uncle, a prominent member from one of the three main tribes that control most aspects of life in this region, had instructed the clan to vote for the Muslim Brotherhood’s candidate, Mohammed Morsi, in Egypt’s landmark presidential poll.

Instead, she voted for Morsi’s archrival, the more moderate Islamist Abdel Moneim Aboul Fotouh.

“My uncle told us we need to unify the votes for our family, but everybody just chose who they wanted – especially the youth,” said Ali, 21.

Ali’s independence would’ve been shocking here even a year ago, when the orders of clan leaders were law and their subjects fell in line. But Tahrir Square’s infectious rebel spirit has spread to the upper Nile countryside, residents said, making it very difficult these days for tribal leaders to deliver intact voting blocs to the many candidates courting them.

[BrainGlutton]

Morsy (apparently) wins -- FWIW.

The Muslim Brotherhood has declared their candidate, Mohammed Morsi, the winner of Egypt's presidential runoff, and unofficial vote tallies show him leading the race by more than one million votes.

The group held a press conference early on Monday morning to announce Morsi's victory. With 12,793 of the country's roughly 13,000 polling stations reporting, Morsi had 12.7 million votes, while his opponent, Ahmed Shafiq, had 11.84 million, the group said.

<snip>

The Muslim Brotherhood has declared their candidate, Mohammed Morsi, the winner of Egypt's presidential runoff, and unofficial vote tallies show him leading the race by more than one million votes.

The group held a press conference early on Monday morning to announce Morsi's victory. With 12,793 of the country's roughly 13,000 polling stations reporting, Morsi had 12.7 million votes, while his opponent, Ahmed Shafiq, had 11.84 million, the group said.

<snip>


SCAF issues its constitutional annex

The new president will take office amid great political uncertainty.

The Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF), Egypt's military rulers, added to the confusion on Sunday night, when they released their long-awaited "constitutional annex", a decree outlining the powers of the new president.

Those powers are quite limited: He may declare war, for example, only after seeking SCAF's approval. The decree also reminds the president that he can call on the military to quell "unrest" inside the country.

SCAF dissolved parliament last week following a ruling by the supreme court, which found the legislature unconstitutional. The court ruled that provisions of the electoral law - which allowed political parties to compete for seats reserved for independent candidates - violated the constitution.

With the legislature gone, the generals reasserted control over the legislative process, and over the country's budget.

"The Supreme Council of the Armed Forces shall exercise the powers referred to under the first clause of article 56 [the article on legislative power]... until the election of a new People's Assembly," the decree states.

The decree issued on Sunday promises fresh legislative elections, but not until a new constitution has been drafted. Before it was dissolved, the parliament appointed a 100-member assembly to draft that constitution; it will be allowed to continue its work, though if it runs into "obstacles", SCAF will appoint a replacement.

The Muslim Brotherhood was quick to condemn the decree, calling it "null and unconstitutional" in a brief statement on Twitter. Asked about the decree during the group's press conference, Ahmed Abdel-Atti, Morsi's campaign co-ordinator, said he expected "popular action" against it in the near future.

[BrainGlutton]

Morsy definitely wins. Celebrations in the streets.

I guess now we'll find out how scary the MB is.

[colonial]

The runoff results are somewhat suprising considering the preliminary results.

Here are the %s and ideologies of the five candidates who won over 2% of the popular vote
(put together they won 97.76% of the PV).

24.78 Islamist Morsi (Muslim Brotherhood candidate)
23.66 Secular Shafic (Former Air Force Chief; Mubarak's last Prime Minister)
20.72 Secular Sabahi (Dissident Jailed by Mubarak; Nasserite)
17.47 Islamist Fotouh (Long-time leading Muslim Br. figure, resigned 2011)
11.13 Secular Moussa (Career diplomat under Mubarak)

55.51 Secular candidates share of PV
42.25 Islamist candidates share of PV

So the three secular candidates won a substantial 13% more than the two Islamists.

My guess is that the secular faction favoring the dissident Sabahi sat out the runoff
rather than vote for Shafic, who haad been a member of the party which threw their candidate in jail.

Also, the true will of the people is obscured by the very low turnout in both election rounds--
1st round: 46.42 second round: 51.85

However, it seems there is reason to hope that the Islamists do not have the numbers
to impose anything resembling theocratic rule, and they may not even comprise a majority
of the electorate.

[BigT]

Originally Posted by BrainGlutton

The word "Copt" is just another word for "Egyptian," BTW, but nowadays it is used to mean specifically Coptic Christians. WRT Christology, the Copts are (mostly) monophysites, which makes them heretics to all Catholics, Orthodoxers and Protestants, but there seems to be some foreign coreligionist sympathy for them anyway, at least when Muslims come down on them.

Wow. I've been linked to that page before, and it has nothing about their beliefs. I had to go to a separate Monophysitism article to find out anything.

You might be better off linking to the BBC page in the future (at least, until I can get Wiki fixed). Also, that article says the monophysitism is not nearly as big a deal as it used to be, which I as a Christian agree with. It doesn't bother me.

[Farmer Jane]

Originally Posted by BrainGlutton

Well, it seems what they have there just now is a counterrevolution, i.e., a coup by the military establishment. Better the Ogdamned MB than that!

I told you so! :: whines ::

[Ike Witt]

I just read that Morsy plans on 'reviewing' the Camp David peace accord with Israel. And on renewing ties with Iran.

[BrainGlutton]

Ooh! Now this is going to get interesting! President Morsy just summoned Parliament to reconvene, in defiance of the military's orders.

[L.mo5rg]

Not sure if this has already been mentioned but Morsy is no longer part of the Muslim Brotherhood.

And MB isn't very scary. Unless your an MB member (or ex-member) you would find it quite difficult to identify that the person you're talking to is an MB member, especially as the MB operate under different names in different countries. They're normal people who have a vision, that's all.

[BrainGlutton]

Originally Posted by L.mo5rg

Not sure if this has already been mentioned but Morsy is no longer part of the Muslim Brotherhood.

What do you mean? He's still part of the Freedom & Justice Party, isn't he? And the FJP is the MB's electoral-political wing in Egypt.

[Alessan]

Originally Posted by L.mo5rg

Not sure if this has already been mentioned but Morsy is no longer part of the Muslim Brotherhood.

And MB isn't very scary. Unless your an MB member (or ex-member) you would find it quite difficult to identify that the person you're talking to is an MB member, especially as the MB operate under different names in different countries. They're normal people who have a vision, that's all.

What's their vision?

[L.mo5rg]

Originally Posted by BrainGlutton

What do you mean? He's still part of the Freedom & Justice Party, isn't he? And the FJP is the MB's electoral-political wing in Egypt.

No he left it, one of the stupid promises he made in order to get the people's favour. I mean fine leave the MB but FJP that was a bit silly IMO. (As a side note about 50% of the FJP isn't MB)

Originally Posted by Alessan

What's their vision?

Well there have been books written explaining it lol. I think in short they want a unification of Muslims under one caliphate, and under that comes stuff like the arab countries unifying and working together and stuff like that. They also want(ed) to re-introduce Islamic thought and get Muslims to be more religious and stuff. Not sure if they still do cause when they started off barely anyone prayed and barely any women wore hijab etc (talking about Egyptian MB) and now they do, but I'm pretty sure they're still working on it. They separated MB from other prisoners cause they made all the prisoners they were with religious, and they became good people etc. It's been a while since I've read the books and most of my recent involvement has been in the political side (well I was never involved in any other side). But basically they want to create an Islamic state (not just egypt but like all muslim countries). Sorry if I'm not very coherent it's almost 2 am and I've been working for hours. I'm sure I can give you a clearer answer once I've gotten some sleep (not likely to happen anytime soon )