We all know that Operation Sealion was unlikely to succeed, but hypothetically speaking, what would happen if the German forces managed to get their armiesacross the channel. Lets say the entire Royal Navy was touring by Jamaica.
The UK would have had to start investing a lot more money in POW camps. The RN would come back, and the German troops (who didn’t drown on the way over due to utterly unseaworthy transports) suddenly find themselves without any hope of resupply, bottled up in Kent.
I am not sure if you are asking what would happen if they attempted the landing in the absence of the RN or if they actually successfully landed.
I think a lot would depend on “when” and following that, in what state the German forces were.
Despite what is recorded, the German military did suffer substantial losses in the Battle of France. The Air Force especially was knocked around. The Land forces needed refitting and resupply. They were short of ammunition. Of course, the British Army was in a worse state at that time.
However, for the purposes of your question, if the German Military did show up (resupplied) in, say, September 1940 it would have been opposed by a very determined British Army. The Germans did not have control of the air. The Royal Navy was not the only opposition (and I assume you mean the main Fleet, not say the Dover Patrol). They would have had weather, mines, patrol boats, artillery and the RAF to get past before landing.
The resupply problems have already been outlined in the post above. These would have been even more critical because all the supply barges for German and French infrastructure would have been removed for the landing.
Put it this way. On June 6 1944, the German navy may as well have been in Jamaica. The combined might of the British Empire and the USA had 2 1/2 years planning and manufacture go into the landing- plus air superiority, Naval Command and a background of amphibious landings (many failures). The Germans, efficient as they were, had none of these and yet the Allies could easily have been driven off.
I can’t see it working anyway within any existing constraints.
Especially this. To paraphrase a website on the issue, to secure the Channel, the German air had to be successful all the time: the English, only once, then the totally vulnerable “flotilla” of river barges would be completely messed up by the remnants of the British air force that got through to them.
Heck, the RN by itself probably would have a field day: unlike their Japanese counterparts, Stuka pilots were not trained to hit the narrow decks of warships moving under full steam. And they had no dedicated torpedo bomber, at all.
The RN could possibly have ruined the invasion fleet without firing too many shots. The wake of a charging warship would have caused havoc amongst a bunch of towed river barges.
If by some miracle they DID manage to get their army across it would have been pretty grim fighting for the Germans. I don’t see how they could logistically supply such an operation unless, as previously noted, the Germans had complete air superiority as well as complete local naval superiority. Without those things, a German army landing anywhere in the British Isles would be doomed…just a matter of how long before they were run to ground and wiped out or surrendered, really.
Germany’s only chance to defeat GB was in forcing them to surrender or at least agree to some sort of terms favorable to the Germans. THAT could have happened, especially if the US had flatly told the Brits that we were sitting this one out and wouldn’t be providing them with any fresh supplies…or, I suppose, if the Russians had folded in that first year and thrown in the towel.
Even totally disregarding any RN assets it is hard to see how the Germans succeed. In theory the German force looks nasty with about 33 divisions including 5 armored divisions (one of which was broken down into battalions and split up). Against roughly 20 British divisions. But the German divisions were all under strength. None of them had their artillery elements. Those would only be added later, basically after the battle was decided, because they couldn’t transport them across the beaches. And many of the German forces were allotted to wait until after a port was captured and was operational. On top of this all the initial invasion ships were allotted to at least two of the four waves and to carry supplies later. Sink a division worth of troops in a wave and you have just prevented a second division from even embarking. You also cut resupply by a similar amount.
So in reality You are going to have 8 understrength, under-supplied divisions landing in the first wave, all without any heavy weaponry, against 20 divisions including 2 armored divisions. In order to allow most of the follow up forces to even enter the battle those troops have to capture either Dover or Folkestone intact (ideally both). And they have to do it against an enemy that is dug in and fortified, again without any artillery. On top of it the transports have to continually cross the channel. Most of the ships were supposed to cross about 2-3 times a week. And they have to do this for several weeks, without taking significant losses. Don’t capture a port in a couple days? The Germans lose. Lose a significant portion of the transports to the RAF? The Germans lose. And the RAF only has to succeed once. Harris can hit them in port in Europe or GB, or he can hit them at sea. In the meantime the Luftwaffe has to not only maintain total air control to protect the transports, they also have to do the same over the battlefield and act as the only artillery the army will have access to.
It is hard to see how the Germans could hope to win.
There’s a very good essay on the impossibility of Sea Lion here. There were a lot of problems, more than just the Royal Navy and the RAF, both of which were game killers as far as any hope of Sea Lion went. However, RMA Sandhurst has gamed out Sea Lion removing those unpleasant problems of the RN and RAF. From the linked esssay:
The Battle of Britain ended Germany’s hopes for air superiority, and with that, the prospects of a successful invasion. Without air superiority, it would have been very difficult for Germany to establish much of a foothold in Britain.
I would add a point that can be debated. The German Army was obviously excellent at what it did- Blitzkreig is the term most often used. It was excellent away from that as well as can be seen from the defense it mounted in Italy (and the USSR).
However, with all its sweeping victories it was an army of encirclement and cutting off surrounded forces. The Luftwaffe was virtually flying artillery. This worked well in France, USSR, and even North Africa. Against less organised countries this capacity could be worked around (Greece, Poland, Norway). However, against a determined opposition in the UK things could have gone pear shaped very quickly.
C.S. Forester, author of the Horatio Hornblower stories, wrote a fictionalized account, “If Hitler had Invaded England.” Obviously, any such work is speculative, but his is one of the better guesses. In his version, the German divisions get scattered in their landing zones, and, before they can re-organize themselves, they are contained. After that, it’s just a slow siege to reduce them.
We would have fought on the beaches, we would have fought on the landing grounds, we would have fought in the fields and in the streets, we would have fought in the hills; we would have never surrendered.
Well, does this talk of potent British ground forces mean Churchill was exaggerating when he described the British, after Dunkirk, as “an almost unarmed people?”
If you assume that the Germans “get their armies across the Channel”, then IMO you are also positing that the RAF and RN are destroyed in the process, since the former would necessitate the latter. Also, IMO, the German’s armies include their armored divisions.
It’s no contest. The Germans roll into London and execute Churchill.
So OP, maybe you wanna be a little more specific on just how successful the invasion is.
Let’s go by your assumption that they do manage to land. What’s important now is the time frame. If it was in June 1940, right after France fell, the Germans would have encountered at most 3 divisions of soldiers with not that many heavy weapons. The Germans scaled down their plans from 25 divisions to just 14 + 2 airborne. So even the scaled down plan would have met with (initial) success. Of course, they were also likely to encounter 3 million bravehearts armed with pitchforks and cricket bats.
With the foregoing, it would become a Guadalcanal on a larger scale, meaning it would be a transport/logistics battle. German ships aren’t likely to run the RN blockade but they could try it through the air. Trouble was, the luftwaffe was just as short-handed as the German navy in 1940.
Now, if it was in September (as Sea Lion was scheduled) they would have met 16 fully equipped divisions at the southern part of England and then 5 more around the London area. Pffftt…
Just to add to the point, made by the_diego about the air resupply.
In the USSR, the Luftwaffe did a “reasonable” job of resupply to Stalingrad. The managed about 350 tonnes a day which is no where near what was required. However, that was coming from depots set up by the Germans inside the USSR to a clear drop off point- they had landing points in Stalingrad. While the Soviets threw a lot of air defences and anti aircraft guns at the transports the Germans still had control of the air.
In an invasion of Britain, there was no control of the air, in France there were no supply depots immediately available and really no drop zone established.
A lot of people discount the Home Guard but I don’t. Knowing that you have no where to run to and that you also outnumber the invader tends to do wonders for morale.
Yeah, there were a bunch of embaressing training exercises where the Home Guard (made up of men supposedly to old or lame to fight) defeated regular British Army soldiers.