Survivor December 5 2012 "Shot into Smithereens"

[Mahaloth]

This has been a pretty good season, though I do not see it rising to the level of an all-time great.

I'm not surprised at all that they....well, did what they did tonight. I won't spoiler in the opening post, but I pretty much saw the vetoed player before the votes were revealed.

[StarvingButStrong]

I was worried that they might have shifted their target to Denise once Malcolm won immunity. She *is* the one most closely aligned with him after all.

[misstee]

Abi needs to go.

[Weedy]

I really liked Denise to start but she seems almost irrelevant now. The only times they show her is when she is ripping on Abi.

Pity Lisa didnt have her change of heart last episode. She cant do much any more.

[Johnny L.A.]

Originally Posted by StarvingButStrong

I was worried that they might have shifted their target to Denise once Malcolm won immunity. She *is* the one most closely aligned with him after all.

Originally Posted by Weedy

I really liked Denise to start but she seems almost irrelevant now. The only times they show her is when she is ripping on Abi.

I still like Denise, and hope that she wins. Her 'ripping on Abi' is fairly mild, I think. She tries to explain to Abi Normal what she (Abi) does that annoys people. Unfortunately, Abi isn't listening.

So the five remaining players are Abi Normal, Denise, Lisa, Malcolm, and Skupin. Abi and Malcolm both have 'use or lose' HIIs, so I presume they'll both play them at the next TC. That means Skupin, Denise, or Lisa will be voted out. Both Malcolm and Denise have played a good game. They've both proven themselves as formidable physical threats, their joint strategy has so far been successful, and everyone likes them. Since Malcolm will presumably play his idol, Denise is the logical choice to vote out next week.

Denise says she wants to stand next to 'deserving' players at the FTC. That's risky if she wants to win a megabuck, but she wants a 'fair fight'. For all of his protestations that voting out Abi would be good for his sanity and his stated sentiments that he too wants a 'fair fight', I think Malcolm is playing to win. I think he really does want Abi in the FTC. The final IC often an endurance challenge. Denise has the perfect body for an endurance challenge. She's too big a threat for the others to let her stay.

The preview makes it seem like Denise is in trouble. Based on the above, she needs to win immunity. If she doesn't, she's the obvious choice. Only... Malcolm knows that he has a lock on the million if Denise is gone. So does everyone else. If he votes out Denise, what's to stop Abi, Skupin, and Lisa from voting him out the next round? Malcolm needs Denise around a little longer. So I think Skupin or Lisa will be voted out next week. (I could be wrong of course, and the preview isn't a red herring.) Skupin has been wishy-washy on his votes. He seems easily convinced to switch votes half the time. Lisa has been fairly consistently 'sticking by her word', only she was gunning for Malcolm this week. Which to choose...? Abi dislikes Lisa more than she does Skupin. OTOH, I think she knows that Lisa is not a physical threat. I think Denise thinks Lisa has not played a strong game, and going by Denise's stated comments about wanting to stand with strong players at the end I think she might vote Lisa off. So I'm going to say Denise votes for Lisa. Malcolm votes for Lisa, since he'd rather stand by Abi in the Final Three. Skupin votes for Lisa because (assuming that Malcolm decides he needs Denise around for another vote) she's the only option. Abi? She'll vote for either Lisa or Denise because she dislikes them. But it Malcolm, Denise, and Skupin vote for Lisa, Lisa is going home.

Have I ever been right? I don't know. Probably not. Assuming Denise does not win immunity, Malcolm may decide that her physical prowess -- especially in a potential endurance challenge -- is more of a risk than having her 'protection' is a benefit.

[Glory]

Abi already played her hidden immunity idol in episode 10 and Pete went home. She made up a story about having a second, hidden immunity idol (she said there were secondary instructions to find an idol in her auction advantage clue, which she conveniently ripped up). She doesn't have one and no one believes she has one.

[LavenderBlue]

Lisa can go home ASAP and take her unappealing religion with her. I hate her more than Abi.

[Johnny L.A.]

Originally Posted by Glory

Abi already played her hidden immunity idol in episode 10 and Pete went home. She made up a story about having a second, hidden immunity idol (she said there were secondary instructions to find an idol in her auction advantage clue, which she conveniently ripped up). She doesn't have one and no one believes she has one.

I don't remember her playing it but you are indeed correct. So much for my guess.

[FlightlessBird]

Abi does not have a HII, she's played hers to save herself when Pete got voted out. (a mistake IMO. She may have been able to vote for Pete herself and save her HII) It would be useful right now.

She keeps saying she has one, just to try and deflect some votes. But no one's buying it.

This may be the year that a villain wins it. If Abi makes it to the end, it will be due to the final 4 people being betrayed. Maybe enough to vote for her. (Probably not Denise or Lisa) But I think she has Artiss and Pete. She possibly has Carter and Jeff. SO if Malcolm or Skupin are on the jury with Abi stilll in, they may be pissed enough to vote for her. All she would need is one of these votes: Skupin, Malcolm, Penner (who is so random he might do it for kicks) Plus expect her FT speech to be all 'woe is me'.

[notfrommensa]

The previews was a total red herring. Malcolm's brother was supposed to let something out of the bag. He hardly said anything.

Skupin's kid is another case of the Apple not falling far from the tree. Another Klutz.

"Survivor Jesus looks like Malcolm and plays like Carter." LOL

[Johnny L.A.]

Originally Posted by FlightlessBird

Abi does not have a HII, she's played hers to save herself when Pete got voted out. (a mistake IMO. She may have been able to vote for Pete herself and save her HII) It would be useful right now.

I remember now. I even commented on it after it happened.

I plead a busy life, and details like this get lost in the rush.

[Saint Cad]

Question: Malcolm wins immunity next week. Since he needs to use his HII, who does he give his second immunity to?

Denise: partners to the end as promised.
AbiNormal: She either goes with him to final 3 or he gets her jury vote
Lisa: Similar outcome to giving AbiNormal immunity but for different reasons
Skupen: Why?

[notfrommensa]

Originally Posted by Saint Cad

Question: Malcolm wins immunity next week. Since he needs to use his HII, who does he give his second immunity to?

Denise: partners to the end as promised.
AbiNormal: She either goes with him to final 3 or he gets her jury vote
Lisa: Similar outcome to giving AbiNormal immunity but for different reasons
Skupen: Why?

E. None of the above. He puts it on Ebay and some collector pays him $100,000.

[StarvingButStrong]

I think if Malcolm gave immunity to Abi, almost all the other players would hate him for it so much he'd lose their votes.

[CarnalK]

Originally Posted by Saint Cad

Question: Malcolm wins immunity next week. Since he needs to use his HII, who does he give his second immunity to?

Denise: partners to the end as promised.
AbiNormal: She either goes with him to final 3 or he gets her jury vote
Lisa: Similar outcome to giving AbiNormal immunity but for different reasons
Skupen: Why?

ISTM that he should decide last second. Listen to all the scrambling and TC talk and only give it away if he doesn't like who he thinks is going to get voted out.

Originally Posted by StarvingButStrong

I think if Malcolm gave immunity to Abi, almost all the other players would hate him for it so much he'd lose their votes.

Buuuuut, if he could secretly give it to her then everyone might think "Holy crap! She wasn't bluffing" when she plays it.

[Glazer]

Best for Malcolm not to win Immunity so as to keep the target on his back as small as possible. And use his HII for himself. That way he doesn't have to give it to Denise. If Denise wins immunity he gets to keep his greatest ally around till final four. If someone else wins then he has a chance to blindside Denise.

[Saint Cad]

Originally Posted by Glazer

Best for Malcolm not to win Immunity so as to keep the target on his back as small as possible. And use his HII for himself. That way he doesn't have to give it to Denise. If Denise wins immunity he gets to keep his greatest ally around till final four. If someone else wins then he has a chance to blindside Denise.

So with two immunities and guarantied going to final four, how would Malcolm have a target on his back more than anyone else?

Also, does anyone think Abi sees herself as a brilliant player and thinking her bluff worked?

[Johnny L.A.]

Originally Posted by Saint Cad

Also, does anyone think Abi sees herself as a brilliant player and thinking her bluff worked?

That would be completely delusional.

Oh, wait...

[Glazer]

Originally Posted by Saint Cad

So with two immunities and guarantied going to final four, how would Malcolm have a target on his back more than anyone else?

Also, does anyone think Abi sees herself as a brilliant player and thinking her bluff worked?

I think Malcolm is seen as the one to beat if anyone else is to win. Next week is the last time he can play his HII so there is no reason for him to push hard to win Immunity. It would only make him look stronger.

Frankly I'd be surprised if she doesn't see it that way. Unless she is called out on it and put on the spot.

I have been surprised by how open the TC have been this season since the merge. I blame Abi for this. If she makes it to final TC her rant will probably turn even Pete against her.

[Saint Cad]

Originally Posted by Glazer

I have been surprised by how open the TC have been this season since the merge. I blame Abi for this. If she makes it to final TC her rant will probably turn even Pete against her.

Is that because she is baggage? Oh wait! HAS baggage.*





*I suspect she is thinking about her clothes bag at camp so yes she has baggage.

[Wheelz]

I predicted in last week's thread that Abi would be going home this week and I was wrong. Though that could be construed that the Final Four Alliance is still strong. Carter would have had a much better shot at winning the next immunity than Abi, and this way they'll almost definitely have a sitting duck to complete their plan.

But that isn't the best plan for Lisa and Skupin. If they're smart they'll use Abi to blindside Denise and shoot for Malcolm after that (barring immunity challenge wins, of course). The only way either of them has a shot at the million is a final 3 of Lisa/Skupin/Abi. Lisa could actually win that Final!

I shed no tears for Carter, though he seems like a decent guy and wasn't the worst player ever. He was just kind of a... non-player.

[Wheelz]

Originally Posted by Saint Cad

Question: Malcolm wins immunity next week. Since he needs to use his HII, who does he give his second immunity to?

Ooooh, I just had a crazy thought. If neither Malcom nor Denise wins immunity, might he give her the idol anyway, figuring nobody will vote for him and they might try to blindside her? That would be a pretty cool move.

In any case, I think if he does win, he should protect Denise, because if she were to go, the others would obviously have their sights on him next.

[Saint Cad]

Originally Posted by Wheelz

Ooooh, I just had a crazy thought. If neither Malcom nor Denise wins immunity, might he give her the idol anyway, figuring nobody will vote for him and they might try to blindside her? That would be a pretty cool move.

In any case, I think if he does win, he should protect Denise, because if she were to go, the others would obviously have their sights on him next.

Not that she would do it but could you imagine at TC someone like Skupin saying, "We can't vote out Malcolm. He has an idol." and then Denise pulls it out and says, "You mean this one?"

[Wheelz]

Originally Posted by Saint Cad

Not that she would do it but could you imagine at TC someone like Skupin saying, "We can't vote out Malcolm. He has an idol." and then Denise pulls it out and says, "You mean this one?"

Well, if he gives it to her before the votes are cast, he'll deserve that!

[ekweizn]

I like how as soon as Malcolm won, the Skupin/Lisa/Abi/Carter foursome just put their hands in the air and said, "One of us has to go." God's backup plan was apparently not getting rid of Denise.

[The Controvert]

Originally Posted by Wheelz

Well, if he gives it to her before the votes are cast, he'll deserve that!

Actually, if Malcolm and Denise really are tight and neither of them win individual immunity, then that's the best possible move for Malcolm to make. It takes the guesswork out of things.

Scenario A: Malcolm keeps the HII and waits until after the votes are cast. Now, he has to guess whether the other three voted for Malcolm or Denise. If he plays the HII on himself, there is a chance Denise goes home. If Malcolm gives Denise the HII, there's a chance the others voted for Malcolm hoping for a blindside thinking Malcolm might not play his HII on himself. (Maybe to sell to a collector after the show ends)

Scenario B: Malcolm gives Denise the HII. They pretend to fight and Denise reveals she has the HII before the votes are cast. With this tactic, Malcolm guarantees no votes will be cast against Denise, so if he trusts Denise to return the HII, he can safely play it on himself with no guesswork.

note: HII can be given after the votes are cast, so I'm saying Denise returns it to Malcolm after the votes.

[partlycloudy]

Originally Posted by ekweizn

I like how as soon as Malcolm won, the Skupin/Lisa/Abi/Carter foursome just put their hands in the air and said, "One of us has to go." God's backup plan was apparently not getting rid of Denise.

I know, right?! As soon as Malcolm won immunity, I thought to myself, "Dang, there goes Denise." It's like they don't even realize Denise is there. Well, I like her so I'm glad. If Denise had been voted out and we were dealing with Carter, Abi, Lisa, Skupin and Malcolm... well, that just sounds like blah to me. Denise is awesome.

Lisa has certainly added an element of unpredictability to this season, although I find her churchyness extremely annoying most of the time. It seems she's made it this far because she doesn't know what she's doing, and everyone knows she doesn't know what she's doing, so she's considered easily flippable. Flippability + non-threatening-ness = getting far in Survivor.

So, the way things stand now, Abi, Skupin, Lisa and Denise are potentially up for elimination next week. My prediction (unless Denise wins immunity):

Skupin won't vote for Abi, won't vote for Lisa, can't vote for Malcolm = vote for Denise.
Lisa won't vote for Abi, won't vote for Skupin, can't vote for Malcolm = vote for Denise.
Abi will need to be brought in on that vote to make a majority, and I certainly don't think she'll have a problem voting for Denise = vote for Denise.
Malcolm will vote for Lisa.
Denise will vote for Lisa.

I don't see a reason why Skupin and Lisa would vote differently from one another next week (plus they are besties now). Abi has been kept around this long for only one reason, so I'd say she's preeeetty much guaranteed a spot in the final three. So, next week I'd say it's either Denise, or if Malcolm rescues her, Lisa. I doooon't really see Malcolm rescuing Denise though. Although it is kinda funny - when Malcolm and Denise were looking for the HII during their last day in their original tribe, they kinda found it together.

If Denise is voted out next week, Malcolm will know he's next if he doesn't win the following week's immunity challenge, so that will be fun to watch.

If it all actually does shake out with Denise and then Malcolm getting voted off, we have a final three of Skupin, Lisa and Abi. (shudder) And we will know, if Abi wins, that there is no god.

[squeegee]

Goddamn, 5-1 Carter. I didn't expect Abi to line up with anyone non-Abi.

Watching this week and last week, I feel like we're into the final slide of the the Inevitable Person Who Will Win, and it's Malcolm. It's not really inevitable, but it sure seems that way, and the editors are grasping at damn-near anything to get us to avoid that feeling. I won't call it yet for Malcolm, but I'll be very surprised if it isn't him.

[magnusblitz]

Originally Posted by notfrommensa

The previews was a total red herring. Malcolm's brother was supposed to let something out of the bag. He hardly said anything.

Kinda pissed about that... I know the preview needs to make things interesting, but they basically invented a storyline that didn't exist. They could've easily just made a generic preview, or maybe something like "AND LISA PLANS TO MAKE A BIG MOVE!" "What if we blindside Malcolm?!" DUN DUN DUN.

I thought they would vote out Abi, but as soon as TC started and Carter seemed a bit pissed off about keeping "someone you can beat" over "someone you respect" I knew he was going home.

Also surprised that once Malcolm won immunity, the thought never passed their minds to vote out Denise. Then again, they don't seem the brightest players in the world. I would've much rather had Carter (who can possibly beat Malcolm in an immunity challenge and is a logical player) in the game to try and make a 3-2 alliance to beat Malcolm/Denise than rely on Abi, who can't be trusted and is useless in challenges.

Also a big LOL @ the prayer. "Please God, if it please you, bless our plan." "I don't think God cares about who wins Survivor or who wins a football game..." THEN WHY DID YOU JUST PRAY TO HIM TO HELP YOU WIN?!

I really hope they're not focusing on Lisa all the time because she wins.

[Just Ed]

Originally Posted by magnusblitz

THEN WHY DID YOU JUST PRAY TO HIM TO HELP YOU WIN?!

I actually said this out loud at the time (yes, my neighbors probably think I'm crazy).

Interesting that the question of whether to keep Abi around for Final Tribal seems to still be percolating around the camp. Denise's big speech a couple Tribal Councils ago about keeping people you like and respect in the game (as opposed to those you hope will lose to you) seems to have been forgotten (by all except Carter, apparently). Now I wonder how strong the Final Four Alliance of Malcolm/Denise/Skupin/Lisa will be next week - do they get rid of Abi or one of their own?

Heads-up for time-shifters: the final episode is set for Sunday, December 16 following football, so may or may not be delayed. CBS has started to program a slight time-shift themselves, moving their Sunday night shows back half an hour (the last episode is scheduled for 8:30-10:30 ET with the 1 hour reunion immediately following), but you may want to schedule additional padding just in case.

[Saint Cad]

Originally Posted by partlycloudy

Lisa has certainly added an element of unpredictability to this season, although I find her churchyness extremely annoying most of the time. It seems she's made it this far because she doesn't know what she's doing, and everyone knows she doesn't know what she's doing, so she's considered easily flippable. Flippability + non-threatening-ness = getting far in Survivor.

You would think that but Lisa has been one of the most loyal-to-her-word players ever. Even telling Penner "I want to keep you but I promised Malcolm"

[jsc1953]

Originally Posted by magnusblitz

I really hope they're not focusing on Lisa all the time because she wins.

I espoused the opposite theory, and said at the beginning of the episode -- "Carter must be the eventual winner, because he's gotten virtually no screen time up to this point." I guess I was wrong. But I do think he wound up with less screen time per episode than any player in Survivor history. Carter, we hardly knew ye.

[Jas09]

Originally Posted by Saint Cad

You would think that but Lisa has been one of the most loyal-to-her-word players ever. Even telling Penner "I want to keep you but I promised Malcolm"

Right. The actual key to going far as a true "coattails" player is lack of ability + blinding loyalty. Lisa flipped one time, and that was after the move against her former alliance had already been made. And her "flip" still includes loyalty to Skupin. AFAICT she has never voted contrary to how she has told someone she would.

We may be seeing the epitome of the "non-playing" strategy, with the added bonus of being loyal to people that you can actually beat (hence sticking with Pete/Abi/Artis far longer than seemed prudent, and continuing to stick with Skupin) and having a TV-friendly story (and the ability to tell it - that's why Carter got no screen time, the man sounds like an idiot when he tries to talk).

[Bone]

For the final 3:
Malcolm should want Denise and Abi
Denise should want Malcolm and Abi
Abi should want Skupin and Lisa
Lisa should want Skupin and Abi
Skupin should want Lisa and Abi


Malcolm should keep Denise to 4 so that he is not 3vs1 when it comes down to it. If he or Denise wins immunity next that would be perfect. If that happens then I predict Skupin, then Lisa.

[muldoonthief]

With 5 Survivors left, and a normal Wednesday episode followed by the 2 hour finale (plus 1 hour reunion), there's a strong possibility it will be down to a final 2, not final 3.

The past 5 seasons (and probably further, that's as far as I was willing to check) the 2 hour finale has had 2 immunity challenges & 2 eliminations before the final tribal council. Assuming that the Wednesday episode will have a normal elimination, that would require the finale to have only one, which makes for an awful lot of filler. Plus, the past 7 times they had a Final Three there were 9 jurors - if it's a Final Three this year, there will be only 8 jurors. I really think they're going back to 2 finalists. The question is when/if the players start taking that into account.

[Wheelz]

Originally Posted by jsc1953

I espoused the opposite theory, and said at the beginning of the episode -- "Carter must be the eventual winner, because he's gotten virtually no screen time up to this point." I guess I was wrong. But I do think he wound up with less screen time per episode than any player in Survivor history. Carter, we hardly knew ye.

Yet I'm sure they showed every interesting thing Carter did or said.

[magnusblitz]

Originally Posted by muldoonthief

Plus, the past 7 times they had a Final Three there were 9 jurors - if it's a Final Three this year, there will be only 8 jurors. I really think they're going back to 2 finalists. The question is when/if the players start taking that into account.

I said this back when RC came back as the first jury member, and it looks like this will be the case. Right now we have 6 jury members (RC, Jeff, Artis, Pete, Penner, Carter) and 5 people left in the game. So either it's a final 3 with a jury of 8, or a final 2 with a jury of 9. As far as I can tell, we've had a jury of 7 or 9 every season except Fans vs Favorites.

When they jumped from final 2 to final 3, did they reveal that there was going to be a final 3 ahead of time or was it a surprise to the players?

I'm really curious to know what they do in the case of a tie in the Final Council...

[Saint Cad]

Originally Posted by Wheelz

Yet I'm sure they showed every interesting thing Carter did or said.

except when he went up to Penner and said, "Isn't it OUR time, Mr. Hand?"