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Old 05-06-2014, 04:45 PM
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Tea Party vs. GOP thread 2014


The AP ran a story today on how this is once again going to be a spectacularly incendiary primary season, what with Tea Party candidates trying to oust more moderate GOP candidates all across the country:
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Tuesday marked the beginning of the political primary season in earnest, and over the next several months Republicans will hold more contests featuring incumbents or other establishment figures against tea party challengers. Some of the races are in states where simply the name on the ballot in the fall might mean the difference between victory and defeat this fall, such as Alaska, Georgia, Iowa and Kentucky. Republican victories seem secure to varying degrees in some other states, including Kansas, Mississippi, Nebraska, Oklahoma and South Carolina.

The races here in Nevada won't really shape up until late June or early July, but I already know to keep an eye on the Lt. Gov. race which features candidate Sue "Chicken Swapper" Lowden.

Anyone else got any potentially entertaining TP vs. GOP races to watch?
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Old 05-06-2014, 05:10 PM
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There's a Tea Party primary challenge in my state that has already turned nasty. Word on the street is that the Republican incumbent is in trouble, and may not survive the primary. IF that happens, it may help a professional acquaintance of mine who is running unopposed for the Dem nomination. It would take a lot to put a Dem in the Senate from this state, but I'm going to do what little I can to help him in the election.
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Old 05-06-2014, 06:13 PM
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According to this commentator:

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It’s just not a very exciting primary season. And even though the “establishment” candidates may win, that shouldn’t be considered a victory for them over the Tea Party. The only reason they will win is because they tacked hard to the Tea Party’s positions and had more money. The lines have been blurred, and we’re not going to be looking at a kinder, gentler GOP afterwards.
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Old 05-06-2014, 07:37 PM
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They always had the Tea Party positions, the difference is the tea party candidates actually believe them and want to pass them while the establishment goes "wow no, that's freaking retarded" once they get elected.
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Old 05-06-2014, 07:39 PM
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Where I live so-called "Tea Partiers" haven't taken hold the way they have in some other states but one can never be too careful. I can't do much about "Tea Party" candidates running in other states (or even in other parts of my state) but I'll be hoping they do as poorly as possible - for what that's worth.
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Old 05-07-2014, 05:59 PM
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The Tea Party is certainly not doing as well as they did in 2010 or 2012, but they still have strength. I think what's going on is partly that the mainstream of the party and the Tea Party aren't as far apart as they used to be. The only really moderate candidate challenger is Scott Brown(who is down by only 6 in the latest poll, BTW). All the rest, whether Tea Party or establishment, is a solid conservative. So there's nothing to disagree about except methods. And I really think the establishment has won that particular argument: pure refusal to compromise is bad tactics. Imagine how well the GOP would be doing right now if they'd acted like adults for the last five years.
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Old 05-07-2014, 06:40 PM
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According to this commentator, Thom Tillis, Republican NC House Speaker who is challenging Kay Hagan for the U.S. Senate, despite having defeated several "Tea Party" challengers in Tuesday's primary, is really a Tea Partier in his politics.

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Far from having lost, the Tea Party has gotten most of what it wanted in Tillis. The House speaker is a leader of the movement to repeal most of the 20th century in North Carolina. He’s a tax-slashing, voter ID-backing, anti-choice extremist who opposes a federal minimum wage. Just to make clear Tillis is no threat to Tea Party ideology, Rand Paul endorsed him before the final votes were counted Tuesday night.

There was little daylight between Tillis and the “official” Tea Party candidate, Greg Brannon. During the campaign, Tillis bragged about leading the charge to refuse expanded Medicaid funding and said he opposed the congressional deal that averted a debt default last October. A fervent backer of personhood legislation, he told a North Carolina paper that he agreed with Brannon that states have the power to ban contraception (back in 1967, you’ll recall, the Supreme Court disagreed.) He presided over a budget that cut the state’s education budget by half a billion dollars, eliminated North Carolina’s earned income tax credit and raised taxes on 80 percent of state residents while slashing top rates.

<snip>

All that distinguishes Tillis from his far-right opponents is a little bit more polish. As the New York Times’ David Firestone writes in “There Are No Mainstream Republicans Left in North Carolina,” lazy pundits are proclaiming that the “establishment” won in North Carolina “only because they have redefined the term ‘Republican establishment’ to include adamant adherents of a far-right ideology.”
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Old 05-07-2014, 08:08 PM
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Tillis is pretty far to the right. My understanding is that he's an ALEC Republican. I plan to campaign against him this summer, talking specifically about my experiences as a teacher in NC under mostly Republican rule. Most parents I know are pretty unhappy with the direction education is going, and I want to make the other parents aware of some things they may not know about.

Tillis is terrible.
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Old 05-07-2014, 08:10 PM
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Like I said, the difference is primarily in tactics. Although the commentator makes a really bad argument. Before the Tea Party, most Republicans were tax cutters, supported voter ID, pro-life, and opposed the minimum wage.

Tillis actually knows how to work with Democrats, as he proved by overriding vetoes by Bev Perdue, something that could never have happened if he couldn't work with the other side.
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Old 05-07-2014, 08:11 PM
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Tillis is pretty far to the right. My understanding is that he's an ALEC Republican. I plan to campaign against him this summer, talking specifically about my experiences as a teacher in NC under mostly Republican rule. Most parents I know are pretty unhappy with the direction education is going, and I want to make the other parents aware of some things they may not know about.

Tillis is terrible.
At least his views are closer to that of the median North Carolinian voter than Kay Hagan, who is simply a rubber stamp for the President and Harry Reid.
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Old 05-07-2014, 08:22 PM
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At least his views are closer to that of the median North Carolinian voter than Kay Hagan, who is simply a rubber stamp for the President and Harry Reid.
Considering how closely contested NC was in both '08 and '12, I doubt this can be said with much confidence at all.
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Old 05-07-2014, 09:01 PM
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That was Barack Obama. When he's not on the ballot, North Carolina is a pretty red place.
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Old 05-08-2014, 06:50 AM
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At least his views are closer to that of the median North Carolinian voter than Kay Hagan, who is simply a rubber stamp for the President and Harry Reid.
Given the deep unpopularity of our current governor and state legislature, and the polls that show how their specific accomplishments are loathed by NC voters, and the polls that show Hagan's a bit ahead of Tillis, what's your evidence for this claim?

(eta: some poll numbers to look at)

Last edited by Left Hand of Dorkness; 05-08-2014 at 06:54 AM.
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Old 05-08-2014, 07:20 AM
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My evidence is that NC is a conservative state. Kay Hagan talks a certain way in NC, votes a different way in DC. That's why she'll lose.

As for the polls, an incumbent leading a challenger by 0.8 in the poll averages is not a "lead" in the sense that it means a damn thing on election day. Opinions about incumbents tend to be pretty fixed. Polling under 45% is "toast" territory.

As for the voters hating the accomplishments of the Republican legislature, they'll have the chance to express that displeasure in November. Let's find out what happens.
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Old 05-08-2014, 09:44 AM
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That was Barack Obama. When he's not on the ballot, North Carolina is a pretty red place.
And the President with whom Hagan is agreeing is...?
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Old 05-08-2014, 09:44 AM
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My evidence is that NC is a conservative state. Kay Hagan talks a certain way in NC, votes a different way in DC. That's why she'll lose.
Then how did she win, before, in the same state?
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Old 05-08-2014, 10:04 AM
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It was a really bad year for Republicans, plus Obama was on top of the ticket. The beauty of our system is that every other election, a Senator must win on their own, without riding someone's coattails.

Chronos, you'll recall that Obama lost NC in 2012. Hagan has to appeal to a state that preferred Romney, and also ushered in a dominant Republican government in 2012. Tough job.
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Old 05-08-2014, 12:57 PM
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There's a Tea Party primary challenge in my state that has already turned nasty. Word on the street is that the Republican incumbent is in trouble, and may not survive the primary. IF that happens, it may help a professional acquaintance of mine who is running unopposed for the Dem nomination. It would take a lot to put a Dem in the Senate from this state, but I'm going to do what little I can to help him in the election.
Are you supporting your acquaintance because you like him personally, because you agree with his policy positions, or because the GOP options are awful?
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Old 05-09-2014, 03:05 AM
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Are you supporting your acquaintance because you like him personally, because you agree with his policy positions, or because the GOP options are awful?
A little bit of all three. He's an honorable man that has served well in other offices. His policy positions are generally acceptable on most issues. The Tea Party challenger is an extremist asshole.
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Old 05-09-2014, 08:54 AM
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Fair enough. Would you still support him if the tp guy isn't the GOP nominee?
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Old 05-09-2014, 01:01 PM
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Yes I would. We're not fishing buddies or anything, but we are on a first-name basis.
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Old 05-14-2014, 04:15 PM
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Sue "Chicken Swapper" Lowden hates the governor she'd work for, apparently


<Cue Paul Simon's Still Crazy After All These Years>

In an effort to not talk about her own shortcomings (like being nicknamed "Chicken Swapper" and having more than half a million dollars in unpaid campaign debts from previous election losses), the Tea Party darling began to diss incumbent Lt. Gov. Mark Hutchison for supporting the Governor.

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If one thing is clear from the debate, it’s that Hutchison will stand beside the man who anointed him. Gov. Brian Sandoval hand-picked Hutchison to run and they share campaign staff. If Sandoval challenges Sen. Harry Reid in 2016, the lieutenant governor would fill the governor’s seat.

Lowden tried to exploit the Sandoval-Hutchison relationship. She attacked Hutchison for voting in favor of Sandoval’s budget that expanded Medicaid and extended $600 million worth of taxes that were scheduled to sunset.

“I’m sorry to see my opponent is attacking the governor’s policies,” Hutchison said. “I support the governor’s budget.”

Lowden also critiqued Hutchison’s votes in favor of implementing the Silver State Exchange, Nevada’s floundering health care enrollment marketplace that’s come under scrutiny for glitches similar to the federal system.

Riding on the governor’s popularity, Hutchison stood firm on his decision, saying “Brian Sandoval signed it into law.”
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Lowden also accused Hutchison of using Gov. Brian Sandoval “as a crutch.” Hutchison countered by asking her why she keeps criticizing the popular Republican governor, who endorsed him for the No. 2 job in the state.

“It’s a shame that you have to keep using the governor’s name as a crutch,” Lowden said as their debate over Obamacare devolved into personal attacks. “You’re running on your own here.”

“Brian Sandoval signed it into law,” Hutchison said of the Silver State Health Insurance Exchange, then wondered why Lowden was slamming the governor. “She wants to be his partner, and she’s insistently criticizing him.”

<Fade to black and fade out audio>
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Old 05-14-2014, 04:39 PM
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Tea Party wins one


A fairly big win, too, as Ben Sasse (R(TP))™ beat 2 other candidates for the GOP nomination for US Senate.

Last edited by Snowboarder Bo; 05-14-2014 at 04:39 PM.
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Old 05-15-2014, 08:10 PM
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According to this, the TP as a whole ain't doin' so well.[/url]

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Figuring out how strong is the amorphous entity called “the Tea Party” is not easy. One can’t join it officially, for the most part, and paradoxically (for pollsters) some people who support the Tea Party ideologically and in their voting patterns may not consider themselves members or supporters when asked by a pollster. According to a recent Gallup poll, 41 percent of Republicans consider themselves “supporters” of the Tea Party—but that’s down sharply from 61 percent in 2010. (Nationally, among all voters, support for the Tea Party stands at 22 percent, down from a high of 32 percent in 2010.) And, according to Gallup, Tea Party types are far more focused on the traditionally low turnout primary elections in 2014 and on the general election later this year, with 52 percent of Tea Partiers saying that they are “enthusiastic” about 2014, compared to just 35 percent of “all other Republicans.” So, in theory at least, the Tea Party is poised to have a big influence on this year’s GOP vote.

So far, however, anti-establishment Tea Party candidates haven’t won a single major statewide race in GOP primaries, including their big loss in North Carolina to a more traditionally minded, establishment-backed right-winger last week.

Various other polls, including NBC News/Marist, New York Times Upshot/Kaiser Family Foundation and The Atlanta Journal-Constitution have all shown evidence of Tea Party weakness and the strength of the Chamber of Commerce–oriented, Karl Rove–backed, Wall Street–linked GOP establishment. The AJC poll showed, in particular, that the Tea Party isn’t likely to win in Georgia, where the Democrats might have a shot at picking up a Senate seat, especially in the Republican candidate is a Tea Partier. The Washington Post, reporting on the polls, says that they “confirm an emerging trend of the 2014 primary season: the Republican establishment has the upper hand over the tea party.” And the Post adds that where the Tea Party has strength, it’s in states that don’t really matter in a presidential contest: Mississippi, Oklahoma, Kansas and Nebraska.
As for Sasse:

Quote:
But even in Nebraska, where the Tea Party might pull off a victory, it is in disarray, according to U.S. News and World Report. One local Tea Party activist told the reporter, “The Tea Party is unraveling.” Adds the magazine:

Quote:
The five-way Republican Senate primary has revealed an unusual test case for the conservative wing of the Republican party. What happens when the top candidates in the race are all conservative enough to win a fraction of support from the tea party, but one is anointed the choice of outside groups from the Beltway?

In Nebraska, the traditional labels of “establishment” and “tea party” are blurring so much that some Nebraska GOP voters are dubious as to why the national conservative groups felt the need to get involved in the race at all. Some voters in the state say the race is a perfect example of how the national tea party has lost touch with the grass roots supporters who helped them rise to power. In recent months, media reports have shown many groups are spending more money on their infrastructure than on candidate who can further their causes in Congress.
As a result of all the confusion, it isn’t clear whether or not a Sasse win in Nebraska will be seen as a Tea Party win, since Tea Party factions (including FreedomWorks) are on all sides.
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Old 05-15-2014, 08:15 PM
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Also regarding Sasse.
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Old 05-15-2014, 09:10 PM
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According to this, the TP as a whole ain't doin' so well.[/url]



As for Sasse:
Yeah, but I think your links in posts 3 and 7 were apropos.

The difference between Tea Party and mainstream GOP positions needs to be measured in angstroms, or perhaps with paragraphs that start off, "Let ε>0."
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Old 05-16-2014, 04:16 AM
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Not sure who the Tea Partiers were in this debate, but it was hilarious enough to make Yahoo's front page:

“The key is getting our land back from the feds. And here’s my plan of attack. The three best men for the mission are myself as governor, because I’ve got a master’s in raising hell. ... Here’s my plan of attack, OK? You go in there and you use spiritual warfare. Everybody talks about the natural, but I want to talk about the other realm we exist in. You bind those evil spirits that are behind the feds with the blood of Jesus, the name of Jesus and the power of entombment of the Holy Spirit, the power of agreement, the word of God. Take air superiority and then roll in with your tanks on your ground….Blitzkrieg!

A moderator interrupted him.

“Mr. Brown? The question was about taxes.”

http://news.yahoo.com/idaho-just-hos...214051999.html
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Old 05-16-2014, 07:32 AM
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Not sure who the Tea Partiers were in this debate, but it was hilarious enough to make Yahoo's front page:

“The key is getting our land back from the feds. And here’s my plan of attack. The three best men for the mission are myself as governor, because I’ve got a master’s in raising hell. ... Here’s my plan of attack, OK? You go in there and you use spiritual warfare. Everybody talks about the natural, but I want to talk about the other realm we exist in. You bind those evil spirits that are behind the feds with the blood of Jesus, the name of Jesus and the power of entombment of the Holy Spirit, the power of agreement, the word of God. Take air superiority and then roll in with your tanks on your ground….Blitzkrieg!

A moderator interrupted him.

“Mr. Brown? The question was about taxes.”

http://news.yahoo.com/idaho-just-hos...214051999.html
Thanks for posting this. I don't know what is more disturbing:
1- That people like this exist
2- That they have the audacity to run for office
3- That at least somebody might vote for them
4- That they invoke Jesus in their plans for armed insurrection
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Old 05-16-2014, 09:25 AM
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4- That they invoke Jesus in their plans for armed insurrection
Actually, he seems to be talking about insurrection through prayer alone.

Good luck with that.
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Old 05-16-2014, 09:52 AM
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Wait, he says that he has a "master's in raising Hell", but then goes on to say that his plan is to put Hell back down? He's not even consistent in his lunacy.
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Old 05-16-2014, 11:30 AM
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The other guy's opening statement was to assure voters that he's not crazy. Standing next to that guy, he's pretty sane, actually.
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Old 05-16-2014, 11:43 AM
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A winning primary slogan: "I'm not quite as crazy as the other guy!"
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Old 05-16-2014, 11:45 AM
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The other guy's slogan: Spiritual Blitzkrieg! With tanks!
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Old 05-16-2014, 11:45 AM
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I so much hope that SNL is working on an Idaho Governor's Primary Debate sketch this week. Although I'm not sure how they could top the real one.

Last edited by Skammer; 05-16-2014 at 11:45 AM.
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Old 05-16-2014, 02:48 PM
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The other guy's slogan: Spiritual Blitzkrieg! With tanks!
You're welcome!
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Old 05-16-2014, 02:52 PM
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Of course, it might not even matter which side wins.
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Old 05-16-2014, 02:54 PM
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A winning primary slogan: "I'm not quite as crazy as the other guy!"
According to this, Gov. Otter "insisted" on including the two ultracrazies in the debate.

Probably because it:

1) Makes him look sane by comparison, and

2) Diverts attention from the real challenge of State Sen. Fulcher.

Last edited by BrainGlutton; 05-16-2014 at 02:55 PM.
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Old 05-16-2014, 02:58 PM
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As a result of all the confusion, it isn’t clear whether or not a Sasse win in Nebraska will be seen as a Tea Party win, since Tea Party factions (including FreedomWorks) are on all sides.
E. J. Dionne had a pretty good analysis of this in the Washington Post. This race--along with other Republican primary battles--is hard to interpret if you insist on equating "Tea Party" with "Grass Roots Political Movement", but it makes a lot more sense when you realize it's factions within the donor caucus:
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The language commonly used to describe the battle going on inside the Republican Party is wrong and misleading. The fights this spring are not between “the grass roots” and “the establishment” but between two establishment factions spending vast sums to gain the upper hand.

Their confrontation has little to do with the long-term philosophical direction of the GOP. Very rich ideological donors, along with tea party groups, have been moving the party steadily rightward. Political correctness of an extremely conservative kind now rules.
<...>
Thanks to Supreme Court decisions opening the way for unlimited and often anonymous campaign contributions, we are entering a time when “follow the money” is the proper rubric for understanding the internal dynamics of the Republican Party. Washington-based groups tied to various conservative interests and donors will throw their weight around all over the country, always claiming to speak for those “grass roots.” Primary voters will be left with a choice between two establishments that, in the end, differ little on what they would do with power.
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Old 05-16-2014, 04:47 PM
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Wait, he says that he has a "master's in raising Hell", but then goes on to say that his plan is to put Hell back down? He's not even consistent in his lunacy.
"That says 'master', does it? Oh, I should really change that to 'petty dabbler'; I hate to put on airs."

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uPE2oBnzROY
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Old 05-16-2014, 05:35 PM
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I am loving this Idaho thing. I hope all the GOP debates are like this.

<grabs popcorn><tries not to laugh popcorn thru the nose>
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Old 05-16-2014, 11:33 PM
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Democratic debates can be like this too. Just let the Larouchie candidate in the primary debate.
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Old 05-16-2014, 11:57 PM
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The two Republican candidates for Governor of California (neither of whom has a chance against Jerry Brown) are Assemblyman Tim "Don't mind me as I carry this gun on board an airplane" Donnelly, the Tea Partyista, and Neel "Bush functionary" Kashkari, who has endorsements from all of the main stream Republicans, including former Governor Pete Wilson and Mitt Romney. Donnelly is leading in the polls. Even Darrell Issa has called him "hateful and ignorant".
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Old 05-17-2014, 10:40 AM
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Democratic debates can be like this too. Just let the Larouchie candidate in the primary debate.
I say give all campaign debates back to the League of Women Voters and let them decide who gets in.
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Old 05-17-2014, 10:47 AM
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I remember once watching an all-comers debate for Montana governor, which was hosted at Montana State. There were several sane candidates (including Schweitzer, who eventually won), but then there was one guy whose solution to literally everything was to institute a parliamentary system in the state government (though he used the word "premiership"), and another guy who had silvered himself blue.
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Old 05-17-2014, 11:18 PM
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I say give all campaign debates back to the League of Women Voters and let them decide who gets in.
I think the Kochs should decide.
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Old 05-18-2014, 10:30 AM
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Cute.
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Old 05-19-2014, 06:17 PM
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According to this article, Tea party losing races but tugging GOP rightward:

Bozell, who founded the conservative Media Research Center, said of the Republican primaries: "With virtually no exception, everyone is running as a conservative. No one is running as a moderate, no one is running as an anti-tea-partyer."

One can only hope this is the case. Unless the GOP trims it's debate schedule, we are in for more of the delight recently seen in Idaho. They are looking like a side show, and not serious about leadership. The more the Democrats can paint the Tea Party as far out of the mainstream, extreme, intolerant, old white guys, and the more the standard issue Republicans appeal to this mold, the better.
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Old 05-19-2014, 06:24 PM
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Meanwhile, in Georgia . . .
  #49  
Old 05-19-2014, 07:40 PM
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Keep in mind that a conservative party does not actually have to win a whole lot to get its way. If all conservatives ever did was win the seats they should win, they'd have more than enough to keep liberals from ever doing anything.

Mitt Romney won 226 Congressional districts in 2012.

http://cookpolitical.com/story/5606

If those are the red districts that Republicans should normally win, then their majority in the House should endure for a long time. Plus Romney won 24 states, which means 48 Senate seats that the GOP should normally win.

Even if they never win another Presidential election, the GOP can stop everything with a Congressional majority and 48 Senate seats.

Last edited by adaher; 05-19-2014 at 07:44 PM.
  #50  
Old 05-19-2014, 07:44 PM
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In the current US system, with the conservative party we have, the number of seats they should win is zero.
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