Was Elon Musk right about the soviet Rocket engines? Did they cause the Antares explosion today?

In 2012, Elon Musk said, regarding his competitor for the commercial launch contract, Orbital Sciences, that

“their rocket honestly sounds like the punch line to a joke. It uses Russian rocket engines that were made in the ’60s. I don’t mean their design is from the ’60s—I mean they start with engines that were ***literally ***made in the ’60s and, like, packed away in Siberia somewhere.”

Wikipediaconfirms : the Antares rocket uses 2 side by side NK-33 engines. They were manufactured in the late 60s and 70s and ordered destroyed. A Soviet bureaucrat saved them from destruction and 33 of them were purchased by Orbital Sciences. Two of those 30-40 year old engines were used in the flight that exploded today. Also, it appears that Orbital Sciences only has enough engines for 16 flights - I’m not sure what they intend to do after they run out.

Anyways, the second stage on this rocket is an SRB, which is backwards to how it should be based upon my Kerbal Space Program experience, and it needs a *third *stage that uses hypergolic fuel to reach orbit. Also, apparently, while the first stage engines come from Russia, the first stage piping and tanks were apparently done by a Ukrainianfirm.

Anyways, to my admittedly non expert eyes this appears to be a rocket made from various eclectic parts for whatever was cheapest when the rocket was designed. Also, apparently, NASA is paying these guys 250 million a launch, about double SpaceX’s quoted prices…

Should the 3 stooges music be playing or does NASA have a good reason for paying these guys?

So, why couldn’t SpaceX do this launch?

Orbital and SpaceX are different companies in competition with each other. They both won competitive contracts with NASA.

Oh, for fuck’s sake, you don’t know jack shit about the vehicle and an investigation has barely begun, but you are already making accusations of incompetence and malfeasence without knowing a damn thing.

Orbital Sciences Corporation has been flying payloads to orbit since 1990 with 66 attempts and 57 successes (more suborbital targets and sounding rockets which aren’t counted here), which gives an overall success rate of ~86%. (For comparison, SpaceX has an overall success rate of 75% including the early three sequential failures of the Falcon 1.) Despite the fanboy veneration of SpaceX and Elon Musk, OSC was the original successful commerical space launch and orbital satellite business, and they have done innovative things like the first air-launched SLV (Pegasus) and the use of surplussed ICBM motors for responsive space launch.

We can’t know what happened with the Antares now and probably won’t know for weeks, but OSC picked the AJ-26 (refurbished and modified NK-33) engine for three fundamental reasons: it was already commercially available with very modest effort and cost; it has previously demonstrated a high degree of robustness and reliability having already gone through a qualification program (for another vehicle, the Rocketplane Kistler K-1) that was more stressing than any other program short of the RS-25 SSME; and the demonstrated domestic capability to build and fully qualify new engines of that class to spec in the last twenty-five years is essentially nil outside of SpaceX and perhaps Blue Origin. The companies with the actual history and experience to build such engines (TRW, Rocketdyne, Aerojet) have been consumed by other, larger entities that have little interest in being in the propulsion business (Northrop Grumman, Boeing, and GenCorp, respectively) and have allowed the complex set of skills and experience required to develop new liquid rocket engines atrophy.

It should be noted that this was OSC’s first foray into liquid propellant primary boost stages (all previous vehicles have been based on various solid propellant boosters with solid or liquid apogee/kick stages) and they went with an available engine that had one of the best reputations for robustness and capability. This was the same choice made by a couple of prior attempted entrants into commercial spaceflight including the previouslhy mentioned RpK, and for the same reasons. It is true that these engines are old and no longer in production, and the age may come into consideration when investigating the failure modes that led to this loss of vehicle incident (espeically with the recent failure of an ATP engine out at Stennis earlier this year) but right now there isn’t enough information to speculate, much less accuse, malign, or even implicate.

Stranger

You constantly make claims that turn out to be bogus as well. You respond to every thread that is about any technical subject. About 1/3 of the time you turn out to be completely wrong. So don’t compare our relative knowledge bases, thanks.

Why would you put a low ISP stage after a higher ISP stage? There is no technical reason to do this.

Why would you use an engine designed and made 40 years ago? You get zero benefit from any subsequent advances in technology.

Why would you use engineers from Ukraine instead of California’s best and brightest? It’s pretty well established who the best engineers on the planet are, and where they come from.

“You constantly make claims that turn out to be bogus as well. You respond to every thread that is about any technical subject. About 1/3 of the time you turn out to be completely wrong.”

Cite?
“Why would you put a low ISP stage after a higher ISP stage? There is no technical reason to do this.”

Solid propellant motors are commonly used in upper stage and kick motor applications where simplicity and reliability are desired above pure performance. See the Inertial Upper Stage, Payload Assist Modules, Star and Orbus family of upper stage kick motors, et cetera.
“Why would you use an engine designed and made 40 years ago? You get zero benefit from any subsequent advances in technology.”

The SLS is using engines designed in the same era (RS-25). The AJ-26 actually updates the NK-33 with modern avionics and thrust vector control systems; it isn’t just some engine pulled out of a junkpile somewhere and bolted up to a thrust structure. It has gone through extensive qualification testing (~5000 s hot fire time) for reuse applications.
“Why would you use engineers from Ukraine instead of California’s best and brightest? It’s pretty well established who the best engineers on the planet are, and where they come from.”

Soviet-era quality control in high volume manufacturing may be for shit, but anyone who has ever worked with good Russian and Ukrainian mathematicians, programmers, and aerospace engineers can attest to how solid both their technical fundamentals and general knowledge are. I’ve personally taken apart a number of systems designed by Russians and assembled in various East Bloc nations, and while the build quality is always crude and sometimes questionable, the absolute cleverness and innovativeness of the engineering behind it is often stunning. Unlike the Germans (also good engineers but who like to build everything to clockwork precision regardless that it takes a horologist to service it) and Americans (who like to optimize for absolute minimum margins above all else even when totally nonsensical and exceedingly costly), the Russian engineering shows an attention to practicality in assembly, maintenance, and field service that is stunning in its combination of simplicity and elegance. Plus, they can quote Pushkin and Chekov precisely while stumbling drunk, and almost all have a curious affection for all things American but especially Levi’s jeans (“My dah-tah want me to bring back as many as feet in my suitcase”, tract housing (“Bee-eu-tee-fool!”), and Bruce Springsteen (“The Boosss!”). They work fourteen hour days for six days a week like it’s a vacation (“Wvee get Soonday oof? Thees ees a wvonderfool coin-tree!”) and their detail drawings and specs are always correct, because even though the Soviet Union is gone, the thought of being sent to the gulag for making even a single error is somewhere in the back of their minds, always.

Not to spit on American engineers–after all, I’m one of them–and companies like Orbital and SpaceX have many bright and hardworking people, but let’s not perpetuate the nonsensical slur that Russians and Ukrainians are all lazy, ignorant peasants who can’t count past ten without taking off their shoes. After all, we owe pretty much all of basic rocket theory and orbital mechanics to Russian mathematicians and engineers.

But please, go on with all that I don’t know and am wrong about. By all means, let’s hear about your superior knowledge and expertise, and your intimate knowledge of the propulsion industry and aerospace technology.

Stranger

It’s actually the previous AJ-26 failure (in 2011) that’s more interesting (at least among us not in the know). Aerojet hasn’t released details of the May, 2014 test yet. But the 2011 failure was traced to stress corrosion cracking related to the fact that the engines are 40 years old and were stockpiled in suboptimal conditions. Aerojet claims that they can screen for cracks, but at this point it seems dubious that they really have a handle on how the engines have aged.

Strange,

“Unlike the Germans (also good engineers but who like to build everything to clockwork precision regardless that it takes a horologist to service it) and Americans (who like to optimize for absolute minimum margins above all else even when totally nonsensical and exceedingly costly)”

Germans: That seems to also have been the case for weaponry in WWI and WWII. Why do you think they have this engineering bent?

Americans: When you say “optimize”, do you mean for Isp and payload to total weight ratio?
Outside spaceships, do Americans also tend to have the same bent? If so, how does it manifest itself? Why do you think they have that bent?

Using the search function, I’m going to find your last 10 posts that were a technical statement and analyze them.

**0. **" The AJ-26 actually updates the NK-33 with modern avionics and thrust vector control systems; it isn’t just some engine pulled out of a junkpile somewhere and bolted up to a thrust structure. It has gone through extensive qualification testing (~5000 s hot fire time) for reuse applications."

Who cares? It cannot be manufactured cheaply, as you admit below.

1. http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?p=17852576#post17852576

Wrong, that’s not how blood flow works. Also it’s a basic misunderstanding of pressure differentials.

  1. http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?p=17852295#post17852295

You actually prove your above post is wrong here in your talk about pintle injectors, when you mention that the NK-33 is not cost effective to manufacture. Designing a rocket around an engine you can’t build is incompetence.

  1. http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?p=17851799#post17851799

This post is probably correct.

  1. http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?p=17851579#post17851579

Correct

5. http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?p=17851548#post17851548

Wrong. Machine intelligence kill switches are a criminally stupid way to contain them, and destined to fail.

Your second point is also wrong, you’re 0/2 here.

Machine intelligence offers a way to actually store human skills and techniques in a way where they can never be lost. The written word allows us to store a crude approximation of the knowledge and techniques that humanity has learned, but cannot store the neural structures that actually utilize the information. Machine intelligence happens to offer a way to store that type of information directly. Instead of just storing a wikipedia article on firestarting, you could store the neural engrams needed for a humanoid robot to start a fire under any condition. And so on for all endeavors.

  1. http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?p=17851091#post17851091

Another rocket engine post. Correct.

  1. http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?p=17848857#post17848857

Mostly correct. The reason we can’t go to space on a large scale is because rockets do cost too much to build. Pintle injectors may not offer more than a marginal improvement in the cost, but cheaper manufacturing costs and designs that don’t need expensive manual testing for every unit produced are the obvious way to reduce costs to reach space.

  1. http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?p=17845758#post17845758

Correct.

9. http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?p=17844675#post17844675

And another blatantly wrong post. $164 billion is a lot of money to stop the extinction of an entire nation?

Don’t throw stones when you live in a glass house. Can’t wait to see the post-accident investigation and be vindicated.

<puts down whiskey> Oh. Burn. <picks whiskey back up and continues drinking>

Stranger

Is that an academic qualification or a professional one?

I don’t quite know what SoaT had in mind, but one obvious point of difference is in the use of hydrogen fuel between the Americans and Russians. Lots of American designs use hydrogen: the Saturn V, Delta IV, Atlas V, Shuttle, and so on. The Russians, not so much: the N1 was all kerolox, as is the Soyuz family. Proton uses hypergolics and kerolox.

Hydrogen is a difficult fuel, but it’s very high performance–in a vacuum. But at sea level the low density is a problem and you pretty much have to use solid or kerolox stages. That means even more complexity, from very different engine designs to fuel handling on the ground.

That’s not to say there aren’t exceptions. The Russians do have some hydrogen engines. And SpaceX at least uses full kerolox (and they cite this as a major cost saving measure). But as a general trend, American designs are more likely to use hydrogen.

“My video game is my cite.”

I’ve never seen “kerolox” before. It took me a while to figure it out. You’re talking about the fuel for the first stage of the Saturn V, right? Kerosene (highly refined) and LOX, no?

One of my biggest reasons for souring on the private/commercial spaceflight efforts through the 1970s-80s-90s was that all of them were basing their efforts on salvage technology. I won’t say anyone could take a NASA rocket or Russian engines and build a successful craft, but it was on a par with “building” a hot rod by taking every essential engineering component from a junkyard. It had little future; even if successful, the efforts did not have or develop, say, the ability to design, engineer and manufacture their own engines, pumps, guidance units etc. It was all a bit of a dead-end, self-serving shuck, and in the end, very few of those efforts made it past a few tests and mockups.

It was not until SX and the others actually started designing and building a sustainable technical basis - their own designs, manufactured to spec and capable of being duplicated 1-1000 times as needed, that I felt private spaceflight had left kindergarten.

If OS is still using Russian engines designed in the early 1960s and manufactured when I was still playing with Legos, exactly what future are they building for? When they run out of engines and SRBs built by national entities, who aret they going to turn to? Estes?

Musk may be a bit of a blowhard and billionaire hobbyist, but at least SX really, truly builds rockets, and can keep doing so regardless of whether they find any more warehouses of leftover cold war tech to plunder.

Lowest bid & everybody wants the most bang for the buck.
(…too soon?)

“When reporters asked Shepard what he thought about as he sat atop the Redstone rocket, waiting for liftoff, he had replied, ‘The fact that every part of this ship was built by the lowest bidder.’”
‘Failure Is Not an Option’ by Gene Kranz

After my extensive experience and expertise in playing RollerCoaster Tycoon 3, I can only sit back and laugh at the blatant incompetence of the engineers at Cedar Point.

Looks like there might be a fight brewing here. I’ve got a roll of electrician’s tape for eyeglass repairs, so we’re ready to rumble!

First of all, dial back the heat here. It’s not the Pit.

Secondly:

…this post is out of line for this topic. Most of those posts don’t even have to do with this topic’s OP, it’s just you getting digs into random posts another poster has made over time. You want to make a post like this, you make it as a Pit OP, not as a post in an unrelated thread, Habeed.

Come on guys, this isn’t exactly rocket science.