I’m not sure which forum this is best suited for, as it combines elements of GQ, GD, and GR. Since GR feels most on topic, I’ll start it there.
Betting on the outcome of sports contests is not legal in most of the US, but betting on the results of individual players in fantasy sports is. What’s the difference?
The main thing that comes to mind is the potential for manipulation of the outcome. Sports betting is associated with players throwing matches, shaving points, doing really weird things to hit proposition bets, etc. Fantasy sports is about picking players who will perform well in their task, and is generally organized in leagues as opposed to having a book-maker. By not having the ability to pick any particular player to do poorly or make some specific play, there’s not much you can do to influence what it is you can bet on in any underhanded manner. By not allowing unlimited-size bets against a simple bookie who sets the odds not knowing of the potential manipulation, you drastically lower the payoff for someone that might be able to influence some players’ statistics.
But if you disregard the potential manipulation aspects, are they really any different? I don’t understand how US law has generally classified fantasy sports as games of skill that do not need to be regulated, while bets on other aspects of a game are considered gambling that should be regulated. Both are games of skill in the sense that one analyzes data and makes predictions, the only difference is what exactly the topic of the wager is. With the rise of daily online fantasy sports leagues (which I never heard of until I saw a DraftKings ad on Facebook), there are real dangers that people will lose significant amounts of money through compulsive habits similar to those addicted to gambling, which I thought was the main issue that people had with putting money down on future events, whether the roll of dice, deal of cards, or outcome of sports contest.
As an aside, the stock market is clearly different as you’re directly investing in companies or compensating someone who has, and the derivative market is aimed at businesses who want to minimize their risk and as such has a legitimate purpose other than to make money predicting the future - if companies go out of business because they couldn’t afford to stay around due to losses suffered due to fluctuations in prices, they are no longer providing whatever services they used to. Clearly nothing like this is the case for fantasy sports; it’s simply people putting money down on future events that (hopefully) will not be impacted by the money changing hands in any possible way.
In general sports betting, you’re picking which team you think will win the game (usually against a point spread). The potential opportunity for “fixing” a game is, as I understand it, in arranging it so that the favored team doesn’t cover the spread (i.e., in not performing as well as expected). So, if players on Team X agree to tank (and do so), everyone who bet the “right” way (i.e., took Team Y, and gave the points) would benefit.
In fantasy sports, you’re nearly always scoring points by having your individual players achieve. The better they play, the better your fantasy team scores.
In theory, there would be potential in manipulating results by arranging it so certain players underperformed, but with the nearly-infinite number of different team line-ups in a fantasy league, getting those eight guys to tank for a week might help you (if those 8 players were on the team who your team is up against this week), but would probably not help other players unless they happen to be facing most, if not all, of those same players.
Fantasy sports is a game of skill: Yeah, the players are earning the points, but you’re picking the slate of players. The sports themselves, though, are only games of skill for the players.
Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS) is different from sports gambling because you’re playing against other players, not the house. It’s different from online poker because everyone starts at the exact same level. There’s no “luck of the draw.”
I never played online poker, but my understanding the game was basically “solved” by most players by the time it got shut down. DFS is unsolvable.
I see what you’re saying here. Anyone could have made the best prediction, and the person who made the best prediction didn’t have any advantage like better cards over people who made inferior predictions. And this can’t be applied to craps, because the outcome of the dice is designed to be perfectly random, while in sports you have all sorts of statistics with which to base your decisions on how the future will unfold.
That’s a very fair answer. I don’t think that it means that fantasy sports are more of a game of skill than poker is in the long run, but it at least provides a theoretical justification.
More importantly, fantasy sports were specifically carved out as a legal game of skill in the UIGEA. (Horse racing was specifically carved out as legal as well.) That said, I doubt that the legislators had these FanDuel, DraftKings, etc. sites in mind when they did so. They’re a new development.
Apparently Frank Pallone (D-NJ) wants the House Energy and Commerce Committee to have a hearing about these sites. Personally, whether they’re legal or not I’m just sick of all the damn commercials.