View Poll Results: Brexit vote
Theresa May wins the Brexit vote 1 2.22%
May loses, calls a snap general election 4 8.89%
May loses, is defeated in a vote of no confidence 6 13.33%
May loses, wins a vote of no confidence 28 62.22%
May postpones the vote yet again 4 8.89%
Something else that you’ll explain 2 4.44%
Voters: 45. You may not vote on this poll

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  #1  
Old 01-14-2019, 10:36 AM
dalej42 dalej42 is offline
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Brexit vote prediction thread

Poll coming.

I predict Theresa May loses the Brexit vote on 15 January and calls a snap general election.
  #2  
Old 01-14-2019, 10:43 AM
ElvisL1ves ElvisL1ves is online now
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There was a report today that she's claiming no Brexit is more likely than hard Brexit. That suggests she'll withdraw the application entirely, and let the next government deal with it, either by a vote of Parliament or by starting over with a new referendum.
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Old 01-14-2019, 10:52 AM
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There was a report today that she's claiming no Brexit is more likely than hard Brexit. That suggests she'll withdraw the application entirely, and let the next government deal with it, either by a vote of Parliament or by starting over with a new referendum.
Absolutely the best-case scenario for all involved, make no mistake.
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Old 01-14-2019, 11:05 AM
Malden Capell Malden Capell is offline
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I think May's warning about No Brexit being the consequence is a ploy to try and get Brexiter rebels on board. But she's dealing with cultist purists, by and large, so it won't work.

I have absolutely no idea what she'll do next. I can't decide if she's extraordinarily poker-faced, or has no idea what she should do. Her attitude to everything these past two years is to get past a problem, not to solve a problem.


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Old 01-14-2019, 11:13 AM
Malden Capell Malden Capell is offline
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Brexit vote prediction thread

Sorry, further thoughts:

I think nearly everyone now in Parliament is largely thinking about how to present themselves *after* Brexit is past-tense, whether it happens or not.

Assuming Brexit is stopped, May and the Dealers can say 'well, we had a deal to leave, but the others stopped us, don't blame us'

The hardliners can say 'we could have left without a deal, but the others stopped us, don't blame us'

The Remainers can say 'the whole thing was a pointless waste of time, because the hardliners were deluded and May was inept, don't blame us'

And Corbyn can say 'well, I wanted Brexit to be a success, but I wasn't in government, and respected Will O the People, so don't blame me'

Problem is anyone in a leadership position now who says outright they support cancelling/having a second vote will be immediately accused of undermining Brexit. But doing their utmost to deliver it, and being seen to reluctantly back a second vote, avoids this accusation.

Not that I think anyone in government or Corbyn genuinely hasn't sought to execute Brexit. But they're not suicidal or unhinged enough to think a No deal Brexit is remotely desirable or something they'll be rewarded for.


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  #6  
Old 01-14-2019, 11:28 AM
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Beth Rigby, deputy political editor for Sky News, has just interviewed Gareth Johnson, who resigned as whip today and says the government expects to lose the vote.


https://twitter.com/bethrigby/status...210641920?s=21
  #7  
Old 01-14-2019, 12:00 PM
Stanislaus Stanislaus is online now
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The government is definitely going to the lose the vote.

I don't see May calling an election; her pig-headed sense of duty to deliver Brexit won't let her quit.

Corbyn will call a no-confidence vote "soon" after the vote is lost, apparently - I suspect he'll want to have some indications of support from the rebels he needs to pick off to actually win it before he calls it. He will be very reluctant to call it if he doesn't have at least a shot of getting it through.

But remember that the process now is that if (when) Parliament votes down the deal, there will be a debate within 3 days on how to proceed. This is an opportunity for a plan to emerge. Given that there is a clear anti-No Deal majority, that should be possible. The problem is there needs to be a majority behind a specific plan, because only a specific plan can stop No Deal. There isn't an obvious majority for any of the following options

Rescind A50
EEA membership
EFTA membership
Stay in the Customs Union
(Something else)

As a practical matter, there might be a shot at extending A50 (i.e. postponing Brexit day by a couple of months to sort something out. This is the easiest thing to agree on and follows the government's strategy so far of kicking the can down the road at every opportunity (as Malden Capell says). In theory, that extension should be followed by an election so that a government with a mandate can get in. But we tried that in 2017 and it didn't work, so I'm guessing there won't be enough Tory MPs wanting to roll the dice.

So my answer is "something else" and that something else is: Parliament mandates the government to ask for an A50 extension, but if we get it we'll waste the time we claw back.
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Old 01-14-2019, 12:05 PM
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I think they'll have to resort to process of elimination; but I expect there'll be politicking with the order in which options are eliminated.


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Old 01-14-2019, 12:39 PM
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WA vote is lost, vote of no confidence is survived. What happens after that, I have absolutely no idea. My political instincts have been wildly off since around about the time David Bowie died.
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Old 01-14-2019, 12:47 PM
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If the vote happens, the Government will lose heavily, but what happens after that is anyone's guess. I'd say winning a no confidence vote is most likely, followed by losing one, followed by May resigning and the Tories choosing a new PM, and least likely a snap general election.

I could also see the vote being postponed again, followed by a successful vote of no confidence. But, really, with May and Corbyn as party leaders, there's no chance of a sensible government that will stop Brexit coming into power. May has shown she's powerless, but no-one else wants the job, and Corbyn is also at odds with most of his party, is in favour of leaving the EU, and quite frankly has insane policies in general.

About the only thing that I can say I think will happen with any sort of probability is that we won't leave the EU on March 29th. I don't believe we will leave at all, but that may well be wishful thinking.
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Old 01-14-2019, 01:01 PM
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Is there anyone in Westminster with an actual strategy, or are they all just timorously muddling along?
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Old 01-14-2019, 01:04 PM
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Is there anyone in Westminster with an actual strategy, or are they all just timorously muddling along?
I'm fairly sure the SNP want an election, want to get into a coalition with Labour, force them to reverse Brexit, and force another Scottish independence referendum. Apart from that, no.
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Old 01-14-2019, 01:50 PM
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I think May's warning about No Brexit being the consequence is a ploy to try and get Brexiter rebels on board. But she's dealing with cultist purists, by and large, so it won't work.

I have absolutely no idea what she'll do next. I can't decide if she's extraordinarily poker-faced, or has no idea what she should do. Her attitude to everything these past two years is to get past a problem, not to solve a problem.


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Agreed. Her warning about 'no Brexit' is an attempt to get Tory rebels on side. I don't think it tells us anything about the likelihood, or not, of Brexit.

However, does her warning over 'no Brexit' give her less room for manoeuvre after the vote? If so, it could imply she's for the off if she loses this vote. I am maybe reading too much into it, but how hard can one fight for Brexit if you have just suggested it's less likely to go ahead?
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Old 01-14-2019, 02:19 PM
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Implied odds on Betfair to 1st meaningful vote: Yes=5.1%, No=96.1%. Reducing for overround gets to 5% yes, 95% no.

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  #15  
Old 01-14-2019, 06:43 PM
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In early trading in anticipation of the vote, British Pound futures are trading just slightly up.
  #16  
Old 01-14-2019, 07:51 PM
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As a practical matter, there might be a shot at extending A50 (i.e. postponing Brexit day by a couple of months to sort something out. This is the easiest thing to agree on and follows the government's strategy so far of kicking the can down the road at every opportunity (as Malden Capell says). In theory, that extension should be followed by an election so that a government with a mandate can get in. But we tried that in 2017 and it didn't work, so I'm guessing there won't be enough Tory MPs wanting to roll the dice.

So my answer is "something else" and that something else is: Parliament mandates the government to ask for an A50 extension, but if we get it we'll waste the time we claw back.
An extension may (or may not) be the easiest thing to agree within the UK, but it can only happen if it also agreed with each of the other 27 EU member states. And the EU has no interest in granting even a short extension so that the UK can continue dithering, refusing to engage with the situation, failing to make a decision. I doubt the EU would agree to an extension unless (a) it is to acheive a partiocular purpose which the UK has decided upon and to which it is committed, and (b) acheiving that purpose offers at least a realistic prospect of improving the situation from the EU's point of view. So an extension to facilitate an election or a second referendum or some other decision-making process, yes. But an extension because nobody has a clue what to do, or to better prepare for a no-deal Brexit, no.
  #17  
Old 01-15-2019, 03:44 AM
Stanislaus Stanislaus is online now
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An extension may (or may not) be the easiest thing to agree within the UK, but it can only happen if it also agreed with each of the other 27 EU member states. And the EU has no interest in granting even a short extension so that the UK can continue dithering, refusing to engage with the situation, failing to make a decision. I doubt the EU would agree to an extension unless (a) it is to acheive a partiocular purpose which the UK has decided upon and to which it is committed, and (b) acheiving that purpose offers at least a realistic prospect of improving the situation from the EU's point of view. So an extension to facilitate an election or a second referendum or some other decision-making process, yes. But an extension because nobody has a clue what to do, or to better prepare for a no-deal Brexit, no.
Good point. So I guess one question would be: are MPs ready to pass a "extend and new election/ref" motion as one package, or would we have to go through the rigmarole of agreeing to extend, approaching EU, being told we need an election or referendum and then have MPs find that if they vote for such they are accused of being puppets of the EU? At which point how many will chicken out?

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  #18  
Old 01-15-2019, 04:23 AM
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If May was a states...errrr...woman, she would lose the vote and rescind Article 50 about 30 seconds later.
  #19  
Old 01-15-2019, 07:52 AM
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The entire development of this process is so ... staggering in the incompetence it is hard to understand.

But then my News feed has the NYT article discussing that some large percentage of the English voters for Leave do no think No Deal will be damaging.

Given what was seen in the grotesquely badly informed GQ thread on this here, it is not surprising but it is very dangerous.
  #20  
Old 01-15-2019, 08:25 AM
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EDIT: whoops, accidentally posted this the wrong place

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  #21  
Old 01-15-2019, 10:43 AM
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Brexit vote prediction thread

Rumours coming down that May has revealed her Plan B to cabinet, which is to bring the Deal back to the Commons again. Plan B is Plan A rehashed.

Apparently half the cabinet begged May to open talks with moderate Labour MPs and were rejected, Fox saying Tory backbenchers 'wouldn't wear it'. And May demurred on ruling out No Deal.

Given this, if it's true, I'm inclined to think May could lose the confidence vote Labour will lay tomorrow. Enough Tory rebels and the DUP could jump overboard.


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  #22  
Old 01-15-2019, 12:56 PM
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Sky News reporting that the government is supposed to lose by over 200 votes, the biggest defeat of a government in UK history.

https://news.sky.com/story/brexit-de...vote-11576963?
  #23  
Old 01-15-2019, 01:03 PM
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Rumours coming down that May has revealed her Plan B to cabinet, which is to bring the Deal back to the Commons again. Plan B is Plan A rehashed.
So effectively a third go at getting the thing approved. Bloody hell.
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Old 01-15-2019, 01:13 PM
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Something was pointed out to me earlier - I wonder how many will choose to abstain instead of vote for/against?
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Old 01-15-2019, 01:23 PM
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Something was pointed out to me earlier - I wonder how many will choose to abstain instead of vote for/against?
No matter what happens MPs are very likely going to have to answer to their constituents for their vote tonight (much more so than usual, I expect). Abstention seems a tricky one to sell, particularly when compared to, say, Tulip Siddiqi delaying her caesarean section and coming in to vote on principle.
  #26  
Old 01-15-2019, 01:57 PM
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Pardon my ignorance but does the UK really have to do something? Can they just shelve Brexit forever and say "let's pretend nothing happened?" Or does the EU want to kick them out by now?
  #27  
Old 01-15-2019, 02:11 PM
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The government loses the vote but May wins the vote of no confidence because nobody wants Corbyn in charge.

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Pardon my ignorance but does the UK really have to do something? Can they just shelve Brexit forever and say "let's pretend nothing happened?" Or does the EU want to kick them out by now?
No, the UK doesn't have to leave the EU, and the EU would be thrilled to have the UK stay (although Spain will probably try once again to squeeze out a concession on Gibraltar). The Brexit referendum was purely advisory and legally obligated no one to do anything, although it indicated a broad (and ill-defined) political will that the government tried and failed to appease.

Socially, if the UK simply said "Welp, we tried to leave and it can't be done without significant damage to the country" the ramifications would be right-wing unrest of varying sorts and the return of Nigel Farage, which is a whole other sort of horror. What those would lead to is hard to say: possibly nothing, but then again the Russians and the Daily Mail would probably go back into full shitstirring mode and God only knows how bad that could get.

ETA: No way in hell May calls a snap general election after how the last one went.

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  #28  
Old 01-15-2019, 02:11 PM
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Pardon my ignorance but does the UK really have to do something? Can they just shelve Brexit forever and say "let's pretend nothing happened?" Or does the EU want to kick them out by now?
There was legal clarification just before Christmas that, yes, the UK can unilaterally withdraw their intention to leave and return to the status quo.
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Old 01-15-2019, 02:40 PM
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To be precise, both the European Court of Justice in its binding decision and the advisory opinions prior to this all held that the UK government can by itself give notice of the withdrawal of the notification. There is a condition that the appropriate authority must do so, but it is essentially all up to the UK.

But if they do nothing, they crash out on 29 march.
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Old 01-15-2019, 02:43 PM
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And May loses the vote by a whopping margin.

Edit: 432 to 202

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  #31  
Old 01-15-2019, 02:57 PM
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Impressive.
I read that it is the largest defeat in the Commons in 100 years.

She must either resign or she should make immediate the threat of completely withdrawing the article 50 to put the fear of God in the crazies of the CP since all but the lunatics agree the No Deal is a catastrophe.

Since there appears to be no coherent UK consensus on the paths or even the broad terms, it really is something a new consolidated government must bring forward if there is the Exit.

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  #32  
Old 01-15-2019, 03:01 PM
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That's just stunning. I expected May to lose, but not by a 2 to 1 margin. I'm not sure what the MPs are hoping for. They don't like the deal, but they all hate different parts of it. The EU is unlikely to sweeten the pot much, because why would they? Oh, well, the next ten weeks should be interesting.
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  #33  
Old 01-15-2019, 03:01 PM
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Demolished, biggest defeat in U.K. history. Now, we have the no confidence vote. As of now, the DUP intends to vote with the government, but who knows what can transpire overnight.
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Old 01-15-2019, 03:04 PM
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It seems to me that at this stage a huge loss in this vote is far better than a smaller loss, since it's surely more likely to precipitate something more decisive than wasting more time trying to tweak the existing deal and bring it back to parliament.
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Old 01-15-2019, 03:11 PM
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Is Corbyn going to push for a no confidence vote?
  #36  
Old 01-15-2019, 03:13 PM
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Is Corbyn going to push for a no confidence vote?
It has already been tabled and will be voted on tomorrow.
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Old 01-15-2019, 03:18 PM
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With a loss that big on an issue that big, I can't see how anyone could possibly not have a no confidence vote. Heck, with that big a beating, May should be calling for the vote herself.
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Old 01-15-2019, 03:18 PM
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Is Corbyn going to push for a no confidence vote?
Almost the first thing the PM said when she stood up after the vote was that confidence in the government needed to be tested, and that if the leader of the opposition did not wish to table the motion, then the government would accept one of the minor opposition parties doing so (something the government doesn't have to do). Corbyn tabled the motion.

(table in the UK English sense, rather than the US one)
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Old 01-15-2019, 03:25 PM
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I just ran across this photo of pro-Brexit demonstrators waving "Leave Means Leave" signs AND wearing t shirts which say "Trump 2020".
https://www.snopes.com/tachyon/2019/...452&quality=65
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Old 01-15-2019, 03:31 PM
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I just ran across this photo of pro-Brexit demonstrators waving "Leave Means Leave" signs AND wearing t shirts which say "Trump 2020".
Well, our two nations do seem to be converging on the "no functional government" approach. A new Special Relationship, for two nations that are certainly acting like they are "special", now for a wider range of definitions of the word.
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Old 01-15-2019, 03:46 PM
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The EU is unlikely to sweeten the pot much, because why would they?
Because the EU will be significantly worse off with a no-deal Brexit: The EU does a massive amount of trade with the UK; it wants the 40 billion Brexit fee; negative consequences for EU citizens living in the UK...
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Old 01-15-2019, 04:11 PM
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This is probably a stupid question from an American who hasn't been following the disaster's unfolding all that closely: Given the collapse of this plan, is it at all possible for another referendum to be held on Brexit and for the folks stunned into reality to say "Oh, never mind, we'll just stay put after all"? Or are the horses already over the horizon and the doors already slumped into the smoking ruins of the barn?
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Old 01-15-2019, 04:30 PM
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Because the EU will be significantly worse off with a no-deal Brexit: The EU does a massive amount of trade with the UK; it wants the 40 billion Brexit fee; negative consequences for EU citizens living in the UK...
That trope has run its course over two years; it's a bust, a delusion. The EU will do its level best to look out for its own interests but will (rightly) NOT be held hostage to piracy like Brexiters have been proposing.

They'd much rather take the hit that compromise on the success the EU is. Why should they?
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Old 01-15-2019, 04:40 PM
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This is probably a stupid question from an American who hasn't been following the disaster's unfolding all that closely: Given the collapse of this plan, is it at all possible for another referendum to be held on Brexit and for the folks stunned into reality to say "Oh, never mind, we'll just stay put after all"? Or are the horses already over the horizon and the doors already slumped into the smoking ruins of the barn?
They've only got a couple of months until the deadline. I don't know if they have enough time to put together another referendum. For example, last time the European Union Referendum Act passed in December 2015 and the actual referendum didn't take place until June 2016.
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Old 01-15-2019, 04:41 PM
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This is probably a stupid question from an American who hasn't been following the disaster's unfolding all that closely: Given the collapse of this plan, is it at all possible for another referendum to be held on Brexit and for the folks stunned into reality to say "Oh, never mind, we'll just stay put after all"? Or are the horses already over the horizon and the doors already slumped into the smoking ruins of the barn?
It's possible, but there doesn't seem to be an easy parliamentary path to another referendum just right now.
  #46  
Old 01-15-2019, 04:44 PM
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They've only got a couple of months until the deadline. I don't know if they have enough time to put together another referendum. For example, last time the European Union Referendum Act passed in December 2015 and the actual referendum didn't take place until June 2016.
A second referendum is one of the two circumstances where an extension to the deadline would almost certainly be granted*. The other is a general election.

* a request to extend the A50 deadline date requires agreement by all of the other EU countries
  #47  
Old 01-15-2019, 05:02 PM
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A second referendum is one of the two circumstances where an extension to the deadline would almost certainly be granted*. The other is a general election.

* a request to extend the A50 deadline date requires agreement by all of the other EU countries
I do not think the 2nd referendum can be said to be certain to convince all the members to agree to extension.

An effective collapse of the UK government and a general election, yes, though, if only for the factor of pity...
  #48  
Old 01-15-2019, 05:17 PM
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Something was pointed out to me earlier - I wonder how many will choose to abstain instead of vote for/against?
Looking at this vote checker

https://www.theguardian.com/politics...droidApp_Tweet

it seems like only one MP abstained - Paul Flynn (Lab)

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  #49  
Old 01-15-2019, 05:17 PM
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Originally Posted by Ramira View Post
I do not think the 2nd referendum can be said to be certain to convince all the members to agree to extension.
I think if the political will for a second referendum becomes clear within the U.K., then it's not plausible that the EU would to attempt to prevent that by insisting on strict adherence to the existing timetable. If the U.K. regains the common sense that crashing out with a no-deal Brexit is the worst possible outcome, the E.U. is not going to seek to impose no-deal Brexit forcibly on a technicality. And the U.K. can unilaterally rescind Article 50 if it must.

Last edited by Riemann; 01-15-2019 at 05:19 PM.
  #50  
Old 01-15-2019, 05:45 PM
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Ramira Ramira is offline
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Extension requires the unanimity of the Members of the Council, essentially the member governments.

It is not "the EU" as a thing making a decision. It is the 27 other governments agreeing.

and a lot of them are fairly angry with the UK and the endless shambles of a Brexit they are forcing on everyone (some are just anti English of course but many more are just sick of this thing).

(yes of course is there was some kind of truly clear UK consensus on a referendum that would give a clear result, then we might guess no one would be blocking. but what are the fucking chances of the Uk government achieving that? - the real world option is more like some last minute blundering into a referendum that would be extremely contested on legitimacy and might just drag out the pain to another Crash Out No Deal again)

Last edited by Ramira; 01-15-2019 at 05:47 PM.
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