Straight Dope Message Board

[Ancient Erudite]

After putting the pressure on China about the trade deficit in the form of tariffs, instead of just talking about like past Presidents have, China's economy tanked. Recently China has an offer to buy 1 trillion dollars of USA made goods over the next six years, which could bring the trade deficit down near even.

While the details are fuzzy, if half of this comes true, what type of Credit should President Trump get? IMO, this could be his best achievement as President.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/18/chin...us-report.html

[Procrustus]

Originally Posted by Ancient Erudite

IMO, this could be his best achievement as President.

]

He better hurry. Clock is ticking.

[Ancient Erudite]

Originally Posted by Procrustus

He better hurry. Clock is ticking.

I wasn't talking about 2020, I meant to date. Trump's USA negotiation tactics worked, and USA citizens and business will be better because of it. A trillion dollars is a lot of money.

Do you think this impeding deal is his best results as President, leaving out of course two supreme court appointed justices, and tax cuts?

I say yes.

[Velocity]

I don't understand why China wouldn't just hope for Trump's defeat in 2020 (presumably, whichever D or R replaces him would be more China-friendly than Trump) instead of potentially giving him six more years.

[running coach]

The Dow has been on a gradual climb since Jan. 3. Now you explain why it's down 2500 in the past year.

[bobot]

Originally Posted by Ancient Erudite

I wasn't talking about 2020, ...

I doubt that Procrustus was, either.

[Procrustus]

Originally Posted by Ancient Erudite

I wasn't talking about 2020, I meant to date. Trump's USA negotiation tactics worked, and USA citizens and business will be better because of it. A trillion dollars is a lot of money.

Do you think this impeding deal is his best results as President, leaving out of course two supreme court appointed justices, and tax cuts?

I say yes.

I meant "his days are numbered" given the news of the last 24 hours.

As for the actual trade deal, I don't know enough to comment or care enough to learn. (although, of course, I'm skeptical)

I do know that Trump could bring us a generation of peace and prosperity (hypothetically) and I would still regard him as a great embarrassment and deplorable human. He needs to go.

[Ancient Erudite]

Originally Posted by running coach

The Dow has been on a gradual climb since Jan. 3. Now you explain why it's down 2500 in the past year.

Coach,

The Federal reserve board had interest rates at historic lows from March 2009 .15% to December 2015 .15% Lending out money at this rate for that many years was unprecedented.

Since then the Federal Reserve rates have gone up significantly to 2.40 %. Increased rates combined with the uncertainty of the trade war with China made the market decline.

I suspect the decline is temporary, and the Dow will increase significantly soon. The dow itself is up 1,762 points since Dec 21, 2018. It could reach an all time high sometime in 2019.

https://www.macrotrends.net/2015/fed...storical-chart

Do you think this is Trump's best result or not?

[Ancient Erudite]

Originally Posted by Procrustus

I meant "his days are numbered" given the news of the last 24 hours.

As for the actual trade deal, I don't know enough to comment or care enough to learn. (although, of course, I'm skeptical)

I do know that Trump could bring us a generation of peace and prosperity (hypothetically) and I would still regard him as a great embarrassment and deplorable human. He needs to go.

I must have missed the news. Why are Trump's days numbered? What facts have come out?

[Euphonious Polemic]

Originally Posted by Ancient Erudite

The dow itself is up 1,762 points since Dec 21, 2018. It could reach an all time high sometime in 2019.

Thank you for providing this fantastic example of cherry picking a data point in order to make a series of numbers prove a point for you.

How about if I posted the following: "The dow itself is down 1,200 points since Dec 3, 2018. It could dip to a year low sometime in 2019."

This statement is just as true as yours.

[running coach]

Originally Posted by Ancient Erudite

Coach,

The Federal reserve board had interest rates at historic lows from March 2009 .15% to December 2015 .15% Lending out money at this rate for that many years was unprecedented.

Since then the Federal Reserve rates have gone up significantly to 2.40 %. Increased rates combined with the uncertainty of the trade war with China made the market decline.

I suspect the decline is temporary, and the Dow will increase significantly soon. The dow itself is up 1,762 points since Dec 21, 2018. It could reach an all time high sometime in 2019.

https://www.macrotrends.net/2015/fed...storical-chart

Do you think this is Trump's best result or not?

The Dow continued to climb after Trump took office despite that, continuing the rise seen through Obama's two terms. Explain why the Dow dropped so far that a 1700+ rise still leaves it 2500 down if Trump is such a fucking genius.

Looks to me like the trade war the Orange Lummox started is the cause. He negotiates like a drunken amoeba. He can't be trusted to keep his word.

[Ancient Erudite]

Originally Posted by running coach

The Dow continued to climb after Trump took office despite that, continuing the rise seen through Obama's two terms. Explain why the Dow dropped so far that a 1700+ rise still leaves it 2500 down if Trump is such a fucking genius.

Looks to me like the trade war the Orange Lummox started is the cause. He negotiates like a drunken amoeba. He can't be trusted to keep his word.

I already explained it. Interest rates went up and there was uncertainly with China on trade.

I can see you don't like the guy. Odd when the Dow was up some say Trump has nothing to do with it, but as soon as it dropped they jumped on him. Now its going back up again.

If you have money to invest, now is a good time. Based on what China is willing to do, Trump did a good job. Just admit it, it won't give you shin splints coach.

[Airbeck]

Originally Posted by Ancient Erudite

I can see you don't like the guy. Odd when the Dow was up some say Trump has nothing to do with it, but as soon as it dropped then jumped on him. Now its going back up again.

You are doing the exact same thing but in the other direction.

[Ancient Erudite]

Originally Posted by Euphonious Polemic

Thank you for providing this fantastic example of cherry picking a data point in order to make a series of numbers prove a point for you.

How about if I posted the following: "The dow itself is down 1,200 points since Dec 3, 2018. It could dip to a year low sometime in 2019."

This statement is just as true as yours.

Or if the interest rates were where Obama had them, there is no telling how high the Dow would be now. Trump did not get an 800 billion stimulus package, did he?

Come back to this thread at the end of the year and we'll see if Trump has it as a historic high. Your retort then will be what?

I take it you don't want to talk about unemployment. Why is it that some are anti Trump, even if what he does makes the USA economy better?

[Ravenman]

Originally Posted by Ancient Erudite

What facts have come out?

Pretty funny that you demand facts for all the corruption that surrounds Trump and his band of incompetent criminals; but you engage in rife speculation about what U.S.-China trade will be in six years.

But, I will say that this could be on par with Trump's success in saving those 1,100 jobs at that Carrier plant in Indiana. Do you agree?

[scr4]

Originally Posted by Ancient Erudite

While the details are fuzzy, if half of this comes true, what type of Credit should President Trump get?

It would depend on the details which, as you say, are fuzzy. What exactly are they doing to try to increase import from the US? And in exchange for what?

[GIGObuster]

Originally Posted by Ancient Erudite

I already explained it. Interest rates went up and there was uncertainly with China on trade.

I can see you don't like the guy. Odd when the Dow was up some say Trump has nothing to do with it, but as soon as it dropped then jumped on him. Now its going back up again.

If you have money to invest, now is a good time. Based on what China is willing to do, Trump did a good job. Just admit it, it won't give you shin splints coach.

Again, that is based on a promise that Trump has to keep.

China pegged its proposal to buy more U.S. goods through 2024 to President Donald Trump’s hopes of being re-elected in 2020, the sources told CNBC.

On Thursday the market jumped on a Wall Street Journal report that Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin had presented the idea of lowering U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods. However, a Treasury Department spokesperson working with the U.S. trade negotiations teams told CNBC that “neither Secretary Mnuchin nor Ambassador Lighthizer have made any recommendations to anyone with respect to tariffs or other parts of the negotiation with China.”

Too many ifs to declare with confidence what China is doing it or will.

[running coach]

Originally Posted by Airbeck

You are doing the exact same thing but in the other direction.

As did Trump himself.

[steronz]

The actual source of the reporting from Bloomberg, which I'm unable to link to due to Bloomberg's stupid single page app design, is, as you say, light on details.

The offer, made during talks in Beijing earlier this month, was met with skepticism by U.S. negotiators who nonetheless asked the Chinese to do even better, demanding that the imbalance be cleared in the next two years, the people said. Economists who’ve studied the trade relationship argue it would be hard to eliminate the gap, which they say is sustained in large part by U.S. demand for Chinese products

So it's not clear how this would actually work, and it doesn't seem like our negotiators are inclined to accept it anyway. It continues...

It’s not the first time China has made an offer to reduce the deficit as a way of trying to break the deadlock between the sides which has darkened the global economic outlook and roiled financial markets since last year. In May, Trump scrapped a framework for a deal negotiated by Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin that would have seen China “significantly” increase purchases of U.S. goods.

There’s no clear sign that such an offer would now have a greater chance of success or even if it’s practically feasible.

...

The offer implies raising the annual import total from $155 billion to around $200 billion in 2019 and in increasing steps thereafter, reaching an annual total of about $600 billion by 2024, one of the people said.

It's not clear to me how China intends to increase imports as much as they're supposedly promising by 2024, which (as I understand it) are going to be driven by consumer demand. And since the bulk of this $1T increase won't happen until the end of this 6 year period, it makes sense why Trump might not be too keen on it.

In short, let's not start counting our chickens just yet. Trump has done some major damage to the US economy with this stupid trade war, at this point it seems unlikely that any future trade deal could be sufficiently lopsided in our direction to make up for it. But we'll see.

[running coach]

Originally Posted by Ravenman

Pretty funny that you demand facts for all the corruption that surrounds Trump and his band of incompetent criminals; but you engage in rife speculation about what U.S.-China trade will be in six years.

But, I will say that this could be on par with Trump's success in saving those 1,100 jobs at that Carrier plant in Indiana. Do you agree?

More coal mines have closed in Trump's two years than closed in Obama's last four.
MANGA!
(Make America Natural Gas Again!)

[Euphonious Polemic]

Originally Posted by Ancient Erudite

I take it you don't want to talk about unemployment. Why is it that some are anti Trump, even if what he does makes the USA economy better?

I believe that this is the very first mention of unemployment in this thread, so I have no idea why you would make that statement.

It's as if I said "I take it that you don't want to talk about Trump suborning perjury with regards to his Russian business dealings" I would never say that to you, because it has not been mentioned, so why would I assume you don't want to talk about it?

As to your second sentence - you have not convinced me that Trump will be responsible for making the economy of the USA better.

[DinoR]

Originally Posted by Velocity

I don't understand why China wouldn't just hope for Trump's defeat in 2020 (presumably, whichever D or R replaces him would be more China-friendly than Trump) instead of potentially giving him six more years.

China's economy probably can't wait that long. They already had other economic issues before the trade war added yet another problem. Dragging out even the relatively limited trade war was presenting a real risk of recession. The potential of not making a deal and that trade war intensifying is also a real possibility that they had to consider.

Your presumption might be a little strong about what would come next. China really wasn't a bad case for playing hard ball on trade (unlike say threatening to tear apart the world's largest free trade agreement, NAFTA, as a negotiating tactic. ) Unlike cherry-picking tiny areas in other trade agreements China had some major unfair practices like not respecting intellectual property rights and anti-competitive laws for foreign businesses in China. The EU even got on board to some extent last summer; they didn't appreciate Trump going all Leeroyyyyyy Jenkins but generally are concerned about China's trade practices. There'd be an incentive for the next President to finish the fight now that we started it. That next President might even be able to use more finesse and the worsening Chinese situation to really play hard ball.

Moving now rather than later is probably better for China. Whether this is actually a good offer is a different matter.

[bobot]

Jimmy Kimmel: "The president appears to be on a collusion course with the law."
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L3Oe9zhY9oI

[Little Nemo]

Originally Posted by Ancient Erudite

While the details are fuzzy, if half of this comes true, what type of Credit should President Trump get?

If half of anything Trump has said was true, he'd be the greatest President ever.

[XT]

Originally Posted by Velocity

I don't understand why China wouldn't just hope for Trump's defeat in 2020 (presumably, whichever D or R replaces him would be more China-friendly than Trump) instead of potentially giving him six more years.

Because there is bi-partisan support for hammering China over it's various, very serious actions. Really, their hope is Trump is pretty stupid and clueless, and his trade war is for all the wrong reasons. This is actually their best bet right now.

[GIGObuster]

Originally Posted by XT

Because there is bi-partisan support for hammering China over it's various, very serious actions. Really, their hope is Trump is pretty stupid and clueless, and his trade war is for all the wrong reasons. This is actually their best bet right now.

I do think that you are onto something, I would think that China has seen who has the ear of Trump and a promise to reduce the deficit (that is not really going to work much when you realize that there is really very little to guarantee that) was made to impress misguided fellows like Peter Navarro.

https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine...-trade/573913/

But economists on both the left and the right say that Navarro’s fundamental views of trade are outdated, misguided, or just plain wrong. For instance, he has argued that reducing America’s trade deficit will lead to economic expansion. In some circumstances, a smaller trade deficit might go hand in hand with a stronger economy—if American businesses sold more airplanes and advanced computer systems to foreign buyers, say. But in other circumstances, a smaller trade deficit would go hand in hand with a more sclerotic economy—if, say, U.S. government policies encouraged investors to build cheap-junk factories here in the United States, diverting corporate resources from higher-value and higher-margin enterprises. As Greg Mankiw, a top economist for President George W. Bush, put it, Navarro’s understanding of trade economics would not make sense to “even a freshman at the end of ec 10.”

The take of that in funny video form from John Olliver's Last Week Tonight:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=etkd57lPfPU

(The Navarro section starts at 13:17)

[K364]

Originally Posted by Velocity

I don't understand why China wouldn't just hope for Trump's defeat in 2020 (presumably, whichever D or R replaces him would be more China-friendly than Trump) instead of potentially giving him six more years.

China wants Trump as President, hence the trillion dollar offer. The payback for China is South-East Asia. Trump is weak on deterrence of China's hegemony. Trump doesn't play nice with America's allies, and that's good for America's enemies.

[Chronos]

Just what, exactly, is China supposed to be importing from us? Last I heard, sales of American agriculture to China was way down. What else do we have that they want?

[Velocity]

Originally Posted by Chronos

Just what, exactly, is China supposed to be importing from us? Last I heard, sales of American agriculture to China was way down. What else do we have that they want?

Boeing jets, perhaps. China has a massive demand for commercial jetliners.

[scr4]

Originally Posted by Velocity

Boeing jets, perhaps. China has a massive demand for commercial jetliners.

Boeing wasn't a target of the trade war to begin with, and China was already on track to buy something like $0.5 trillion worth of Boeing airliners over the next 20 years. If China is offering to import $1 trillion more stuff from the US, they'd have to buy more jets than they were planning to. What would they do with the additional jets? I don't think they can afford to piss off the EU by canceling their Airbus orders either.

[Ancient Erudite]

Originally Posted by Procrustus

I meant "his days are numbered" given the news of the last 24 hours.

As for the actual trade deal, I don't know enough to comment or care enough to learn. (although, of course, I'm skeptical)

I do know that Trump could bring us a generation of peace and prosperity (hypothetically) and I would still regard him as a great embarrassment and deplorable human. He needs to go.

Mueller's office disputes BuzzFeed report that Trump directed Michael Cohen to lie to Congress! I get it some will believe anything with zero proof. I guess this big news is just another example of fake news. The interesting thing is how quickly people believe it.

Is there any proof on collusion? We have spent a lot of time and money on the investigation. Trump has been with nothing.

[Velocity]

Originally Posted by scr4

Boeing wasn't a target of the trade war to begin with, and China was already on track to buy something like $0.5 trillion worth of Boeing airliners over the next 20 years. If China is offering to import $1 trillion more stuff from the US, they'd have to buy more jets than they were planning to. What would they do with the additional jets? I don't think they can afford to piss off the EU by canceling their Airbus orders either.

Wouldn't be good for them to piss off Airbus, as you point out, but if not switching their Airbus orders to Boeing, then I have no idea where they're going to come up with $1 trillion in additional purchases from America from, unless they suddenly develop an enormous craving for Nebraskan soybeans.


Edit: Uh, yeah, I don't think even a massive buy-up of American agricultural stuff would do the trick.

[Jophiel]

The Dow went up on Thursday after a rumor that the US was going to reduce its tariffs started circulating. They stayed up even when the administration disavowed the rumors.

Basically, the market just wants some sort of optimism on China. That the Dow went up today doesn't mean that they legitimately think this will happen or that it's an amazing deal, they just want the trade war to end. Trump could declare on Monday that we're eliminating all the new tariffs with zero concessions and the market would still rise. Whatever gets us back to normal and a sense of stability.

[BigT]

Originally Posted by bobot

Jimmy Kimmel: "The president appears to be on a collusion course with the law."
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L3Oe9zhY9oI

It was a shame that didn't get a better response. A very nice pun.

[BigT]

Originally Posted by Ancient Erudite

Trump has been with nothing.

I see you got so excited by a rare possibility that something bad about Trump wasn't true that you forgot how to speak.

The problem is, Mueller was quite unspecific, and the original source made several claims, many unverified. The source stands by their reporting.

Of course, you're repeating a talking point, not being interested in actual discussion. We have repeatedly shown tons of evidence of collusion, to the point that even Rudy Giuliani is now pulling back on the subject.

[octopus]

Originally Posted by Chronos

Just what, exactly, is China supposed to be importing from us? Last I heard, sales of American agriculture to China was way down. What else do we have that they want?

After taking manufacturing, stealing nuclear secrets, and stealing IP, I'm not sure if there is anything left but Hollywood movies and soybeans.

[XT]

Originally Posted by Chronos

Just what, exactly, is China supposed to be importing from us? Last I heard, sales of American agriculture to China was way down. What else do we have that they want?

All sorts of stuff. Large aircraft or aircraft technology, agricultural machines, medical machines, you name it. China imports quite a lot from the US besides just produce. As to what they want, again, the list is huge. They are stealing a ton of intellectual property from the US from jet engine designs and materials to solar/wind technologies to network and IT stuff. Software, OS designs, hardware...they steal everything. Hell, a lot of their 'new' military hardware is designed and built on stuff they stole from us, from Russia, Japan, etc etc.

One big thing that they COULD import from the US (as well as other places) is more cars. The Chinese have a voracious appetite for cars, but they have limited imports (and basically what amounts to tariffs) to try and protect their local manufacturers (since a lot of the cars they build are crap). Same goes for other manufactured goods. Oh...movies. The Chinese only allow in 25 foreign movies a year (officially...they steal the rest of course).

[Sage Rat]

Principally, I would question the source of this information. Unless it is from a Chinese source, the only group that would be able to leak something like this is the White House and any good news being leaked from the White House is more likely to be a thing that they want us to hear than it is a thing which someone took it upon themselves to leak to the press.

Trump needed to turn around his plunging popularity and the plunging DOW. It is at that moment that China decides it would like to bow to pressure and give Washington everything it wants?

The Chinese applied bonus tariffs and shipping slowdowns to the US, targeting products that would make Trump unpopular with his base so that he would have to give in. Xinping can make his people suffer as long as he so desires and they just all have to suck it up or get thrown in jail; he has a weaker lever to use against the US, but a massively greater ability to soak up damage.

But so, just as Trump's popularity is declining with his base, the Chinese decide that their strategy for getting Trump to relent is useless?

Or, a crazy suggestion, Team Trump have lied to the press and the press has to eat it since if you get something from the horse's mouth, you sort of have to run with it. It is, in theory, the only source with the actual information, so you're kind of hard pressed to prove it wrong.

I do not believe that China has made this offer.

It is not impossible that I am wrong, but I would not make a $0.01 bet that the offer was real. There are better things to do with a penny.

[XT]

Originally Posted by Sage Rat

Principally, I would question the source of this information. Unless it is from a Chinese source, the only group that would be able to leak something like this is the White House and any good news being leaked from the White House is more likely to be a thing that they want us to hear than it is a thing which someone took it upon themselves to leak to the press.

Trump needed to turn around his plunging popularity and the plunging DOW. It is at that moment that China decides it would like to bow to pressure and give Washington everything it wants?

The Chinese applied bonus tariffs and shipping slowdowns to the US, targeting products that would make Trump unpopular with his base so that he would have to give in. Xinping can make his people suffer as long as he so desires and they just all have to suck it up or get thrown in jail; he has a weaker lever to use against the US, but a massively greater ability to soak up damage.

But so, just as Trump's popularity is declining with his base, the Chinese decide that their strategy for getting Trump to relent is useless?

Or, a crazy suggestion, Team Trump have lied to the press and the press has to eat it since if you get something from the horse's mouth, you sort of have to run with it. It is, in theory, the only source with the actual information, so you're kind of hard pressed to prove it wrong.

I do not believe that China has made this offer.

It is not impossible that I am wrong, but I would not make a $0.01 bet that the offer was real. There are better things to do with a penny.

You know, this is an easy one for you to have just Googled if you had doubts. First hit: https://www.ccn.com/bye-bye-trade-wa...trade-deficit/

China has extended the olive branch back to the United States by offering a path to eliminate Washington’s burgeoning trade deficit with the country, Bloomberg reported Friday. The news comes less than a day after The Wall Street Journal reported that the Trump administration was considering lifting tariffs amid the ongoing trade war.

China Proposes Six-Year Buying Spree
Citing sources familiar with the matter, Bloomberg reported Friday that China has offered to significantly boost its purchase of U.S. goods over a six-year period in an effort to re-balance trade between the two superpowers. By increasing its annual imports from the United States, Beijing would reduce its trade surplus to zero by 2024. That would require a spending boost of more than $1 trillion.
Last year, Beijing’s surplus with the U.S. stood at $323 billion.

There are multiple articles about this from multiple sites saying basically the same thing. It does not seem to be coming exclusively out of the Trump administration or from the White House. Basically, your post makes the assumption that China can just suck it up and it's the US and Trump who is in trouble and desperate to change the narrative in order to prop up the stock market (which is itself silly, since if Trump made the whole thing up it would be, at best, a very temporary fix and once Beijing repudiated it the bottom would drop out). It's a bad assumption. The US economy, despite this trade war, is essentially solid. The DOW? That's a pretty outdated measurement of how things are going and is used, mainly, but the press since people THINK it's important. China, on the other hand, is having some VERY rough issues across the board, and Xi is not in the best position to just wait it out. This offer is actually the starting place for negotiations...I'm fairly confident that if the Chinese ONLY had to pay a trillion for more US goodies they would count this a total win, especially if we back off on holding their feet to the fire on things like IP theft and WTO violations and the like. Trump is stupid enough to go for it, as it will give him a short term boost, domestically, but he's not really stupid enough to make the whole thing up as you imply. No one is that stupid...even Trump, who is one of the stupidest presidents in history, if not one of the stupidest (and most ignorant) ruler in history.

[Sage Rat]

Originally Posted by XT

There are multiple articles about this from multiple sites saying basically the same thing. It does not seem to be coming exclusively out of the Trump administration or from the White House. Basically, your post makes the assumption that China can just suck it up and it's the US and Trump who is in trouble and desperate to change the narrative in order to prop up the stock market (which is itself silly, since if Trump made the whole thing up it would be, at best, a very temporary fix and once Beijing repudiated it the bottom would drop out). It's a bad assumption. The US economy, despite this trade war, is essentially solid. The DOW? That's a pretty outdated measurement of how things are going and is used, mainly, but the press since people THINK it's important. China, on the other hand, is having some VERY rough issues across the board, and Xi is not in the best position to just wait it out. This offer is actually the starting place for negotiations...I'm fairly confident that if the Chinese ONLY had to pay a trillion for more US goodies they would count this a total win, especially if we back off on holding their feet to the fire on things like IP theft and WTO violations and the like. Trump is stupid enough to go for it, as it will give him a short term boost, domestically, but he's not really stupid enough to make the whole thing up as you imply. No one is that stupid...even Trump, who is one of the stupidest presidents in history, if not one of the stupidest (and most ignorant) ruler in history.

"Citing sources familiar with the matter"

I have not seen anything say that they have Chinese sources. The Financial Times (a British newspaper) has no coverage of the Chinese offer, it just notes that there was "a report in the US" that China was softening, and that raised the stock market. But no one told them about the offer, and they probably have more Chinese contacts than Bloomberg does. But they probably have fewer American contacts than Bloomberg does.

Do you think that we could find a Chinese news article saying that Xi Xinping has made an offer?

[Sage Rat]

Feel free to go hunting. I don't see it:

http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/world/china-us
http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/business/money

Here's the most recent (11 day old) relevant article that I see:

http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/20190...5c34e394f.html

[Chronos]

Multiple sources don't mean anything if they're not independent sources.

[Euphonious Polemic]

Originally Posted by Sage Rat

The Chinese applied bonus tariffs and shipping slowdowns to the US, targeting products that would make Trump unpopular with his base so that he would have to give in. Xinping can make his people suffer as long as he so desires and they just all have to suck it up or get thrown in jail; he has a weaker lever to use against the US, but a massively greater ability to soak up damage.

Absolutely. China can absorb way, WAY more economic hardship than the US. I would even go so far as to say that in the event of a tremendous trade war and depression, China could withstand several million people dying of starvation. On the other hand, there would be riots in the streets of the USA if gas prices rose by $1/gallon. Hell, there would be riots if Netflix went off.

[Sage Rat]

Originally Posted by XT

Trump is stupid enough to go for it, as it will give him a short term boost, domestically, but he's not really stupid enough to make the whole thing up as you imply. No one is that stupid...even Trump, who is one of the stupidest presidents in history, if not one of the stupidest (and most ignorant) ruler in history.

The Trade War is not pleasant for China. But at the same time, Trump has done a wide number of things that make the US weaker and less competitive globally. That gives China a lot of room to expand their influence and control while the Trade War continues. Outside of the temporary suffering, there is more long-term upside to the Trade War than downside, and they can reasonably assume that Trump's successor will largely let the Trade War fall away and be swept under the rug as a moment of temporary insanity. There's no real advantage to them to end the war, until and unless it looks like Trump's successor will continue it and continue it in a way that's not stupid.

For the moment, it's entirely to the Chinese advantage to play Trump for a fool and drag the negotiations out. If he wants to release information about the negotiations - false or true - they will not care one jot. They're not actually in it to negotiate. They just want the tariffs to stay at whatever level they're at or maybe go down in expectation of "further negotiations to fully resolve the issue".

My guess would be that the details of the release are based on a mix between what the Chinese have actually offered and some things that will make Trump happy. This is a leak by Trump's employees, and he'll read the article, believing that its a real report of what the current Chinese offer is, and reading through it he will want to think that he's "winning", so his employees will sweeten up the Chinese offer just a little to make him feel like they're doing a good job gaining concessions from the Chinese.

But I mean, at all points in time, there has probably been some form of Chinese offer on the table. We all have been negotiating. At any point in the last year you could say, "Hey look, we've got an offer by China to get out of the Trade War." And you could show what the details of that look like. And it will read as though we're nearing the end because that's what people think when they're told, "We've been given an offer and we're just nailing out the details."

But are they actually near the end? Is that actually the real offer, 100%?

I don't see the advantage to the Chinese. Xinping is not stupid. It's all win to him to make the negotiations go long.

[XT]

Originally Posted by Sage Rat

"Citing sources familiar with the matter"

I have not seen anything say that they have Chinese sources. The Financial Times (a British newspaper) has no coverage of the Chinese offer, it just notes that there was "a report in the US" that China was softening, and that raised the stock market. But no one told them about the offer, and they probably have more Chinese contacts than Bloomberg does. But they probably have fewer American contacts than Bloomberg does.

Do you think that we could find a Chinese news article saying that Xi Xinping has made an offer?

I haven't seen any from the 'official' (i.e. state run) media, no. I also haven't seen anything saying essentially 'WTF is Trump talking about? We didn't say anything of the sort!' from either state run media or the official CCP releases. I seriously doubt they would let it slide if they really, truly hadn't broached the subject at all and repudiate the very idea. To me, the lack of state run media reporting on this is more an internal thing...they basically don't want their own people thinking the CCP is caving to pressure, or whatever, so as long as there is no official position from them (as they are basically just a mouthpiece for the CCP and everyone knows that) then it's fine. They can always report it if/when Trump et al give their take on it officially.

YMMV, and perhaps you think that Trump has them so cowed that they wouldn't dare contradict him on something like this(?)...

[XT]

Originally Posted by Sage Rat

The Trade War is not pleasant for China. But at the same time, Trump has done a wide number of things that make the US weaker and less competitive globally. That gives China a lot of room to expand their influence and control while the Trade War continues. Outside of the temporary suffering, there is more long-term upside to the Trade War than downside, and they can reasonably assume that Trump's successor will largely let the Trade War fall away and be swept under the rug as a moment of temporary insanity. There's no real advantage to them to end the war, until and unless it looks like Trump's successor will continue it and continue it in a way that's not stupid.

For the moment, it's entirely to the Chinese advantage to play Trump for a fool and drag the negotiations out. If he wants to release information about the negotiations - false or true - they will not care one jot. They're not actually in it to negotiate. They just want the tariffs to stay at whatever level they're at or maybe go down in expectation of "further negotiations to fully resolve the issue".

My guess would be that the details of the release are based on a mix between what the Chinese have actually offered and some things that will make Trump happy. This is a leak by Trump's employees, and he'll read the article, believing that its a real report of what the current Chinese offer is, and reading through it he will want to think that he's "winning", so his employees will sweeten up the Chinese offer just a little to make him feel like they're doing a good job gaining concessions from the Chinese.

But I mean, at all points in time, there has probably been some form of Chinese offer on the table. We all have been negotiating. At any point in the last year you could say, "Hey look, we've got an offer by China to get out of the Trade War." And you could show what the details of that look like. And it will read as though we're nearing the end because that's what people think when they're told, "We've been given an offer and we're just nailing out the details."

But are they actually near the end? Is that actually the real offer, 100%?

I don't see the advantage to the Chinese. Xinping is not stupid. It's all win to him to make the negotiations go long.

Then you don't know that much about China or where it's at economically, is all I can say. Or what effect this has had...namely, several large manufacturing companies (not all American) have either made plans to leave China or are making plans to leave, as well as a stalling of their local companies due to the tariffs. Not back to the US, of course, but to other countries in Asia or India. This is at a time when China is particularly vulnerable, since they have their over headed real estate bubble and their over heated stock market bubble, a downturn in their economy, rising unemployment and a lot of countries starting to look on them warily wrt their belt and road program and their predatory lending practices. Most of their neighbors look on China EXTREMELY warily, and several have approached the US or other nations looking for things like capital/loans as well as military alliances. And to understand why Xi can't just do whatever he likes and ignore public opinion with a sinking economy you have to look at the sub-text of the unspoken bargain the CCP has with the people, which is ever increasing and expanding economic growth. If that doesn't happen, or is seriously threatened the CCP is in serious trouble...and it's not happening, especially now. So, China and XI (or more importantly the CCP) is in a very precarious situation right now...much more than the US is. After all, what are our unemployment numbers again? The fundamentals of our economy are still strong, despite the orange idiot in charge...while China's aren't. Simple as that.

[Sage Rat]

Originally Posted by XT

[...] This is at a time when China is particularly vulnerable, since they have their over headed real estate bubble and their over heated stock market bubble, a downturn in their economy, rising unemployment and a lot of countries starting to look on them warily wrt their belt and road program and their predatory lending practices. Most of their neighbors look on China EXTREMELY warily, and several have approached the US or other nations looking for things like capital/loans as well as military alliances. And to understand why Xi can't just do whatever he likes and ignore public opinion with a sinking economy you have to look at the sub-text of the unspoken bargain the CCP has with the people, which is ever increasing and expanding economic growth. If that doesn't happen, or is seriously threatened the CCP is in serious trouble...and it's not happening, especially now. So, China and XI (or more importantly the CCP) is in a very precarious situation right now...much more than the US is. After all, what are our unemployment numbers again? The fundamentals of our economy are still strong, despite the orange idiot in charge...while China's aren't. Simple as that.

Well, you may be right. Those are all decent points. I don't find them convincing - my understanding is that the Chinese President is strongly empowered to think in the long term - but I could well be wrong about the China side of the equation.

But on the US side, I think that my central point that we can't trust positive leaks from this Adminstration is true. They might be factual, but it's not a thing I would entrust my life savings to.

[XT]

Originally Posted by Sage Rat

Well, you may be right. Those are all decent points. I don't find them convincing - my understanding is that the Chinese President is strongly empowered to think in the long term - but I could well be wrong about the China side of the equation.

But on the US side, I think that my central point that we can't trust positive leaks from this Adminstration is true. They might be factual, but it's not a thing I would entrust my life savings to.

I wouldn't trust anything coming from the Trump white house as far as I could throw a horse. If this was only them claiming it I certainly wouldn't trust it...not until I saw the Chinese reaction at least. However, China has had plenty of time to repudiate the assertion if it was just Trump blowing smoke...which they haven't. They haven't even lightly denied it or said they were considering what Trump had said before formulating an official position. In addition, there are good, solid reasons for China to make such an offer as an opening position to try and get movement on the trade war, so it's not exactly coming (to me anyway) out of left field. I actually expected something like this, IF the CCP were starting to be concerned enough to counter how this makes them look weak anyway. I didn't think they were there yet (though they should be), to be honest, but I'm not surprised. I do think that they think it's necessary...and I think that if they get Trump to move based on this it will be cheap at the price (since, you know, they are talking about buying actual stuff from us for that trillion, not giving it to us as a gift). Especially if Trump et al give them other concessions or don't follow up on the real ones we should be demanding in exchange for any dropping of the tariffs.

I suppose time will tell. I'll be shocked if Xi or the CCP or Chinese state run media repudiates the asserted offer, since to me it looks like it's not something Trump is just making up and asserting out of his ass. That said, I agree with you...trust nothing this administration ever says or does without confirmation.

[Sage Rat]

Originally Posted by XT

However, China has had plenty of time to repudiate the assertion if it was just Trump blowing smoke...which they haven't.

Why would they? It's anonymous gossip by some foreign newspaper. It's not the Trump Administration making an official, open declaration about what China is or is not doing. And, if they speak out against it, everyone will interpret their repudiation as an act of hostility against the Administration, which might make Trump raise tariffs on them again.

And, ultimately, the negotiations are secret. They're liable to neither confirm nor deny anything in any of it.

They haven't even lightly denied it or said they were considering what Trump had said before formulating an official position. In addition, there are good, solid reasons for China to make such an offer as an opening position to try and get movement on the trade war, so it's not exactly coming (to me anyway) out of left field.

Sure, as said, they have probably had an offer of some form on the table all of the way since the beginning. Their very first meeting, they probably had some form of proposal. That's how negotiations work.

That doesn't mean that this is the offer or the accurate presentation of the offer.

[XT]

All I can say is it makes no sense for the CCP to stay silent if they really made no such offer and would not hesitate to call Trump out on it if he's lying. I guess we shall see, but it seems rather a stretch to think this is all manufactured by Trump and the Chinese are playing along because...reasons.


Hell, I hope it IS a load of horseshit that Trump made up. Not only will that further weaken Trump but it will take one of my worst fears out of play, which is that Trump will go for the first shinny thing he sees and leap at the chance, and not pursue the real issues and force the Chinese to start complying. So, I hope you are right...but I'm pretty sure you aren't.