To be sure. The point was that this is pretty common. Reagan and Bush I went at things hammer and tongs as well…until Reagan got the nod. Then they hooked up and went on to win the election. It’s pretty common for people who hammer each other in the nomination stages of the race to later team up to go after the big prize…and it will be no different this time. Whoever wins I can promise you the other one will (at least publicly) support him/her…and there is a fair chance that they will actually become the winners running mate. I could see Obama/Clinton or Clinton/Obama as the actual ticket in November…despite the heat being generated at this stage of the campaign.
And that is the one caveat to all this and the one part that COULD do what the OP was originally getting at. If there is even a perception that Hillary gets the nod through smoky back room politics then all bets are off at that point…the Dem’s probably lose (again) in November and we get creaky ole Johnny as president. If Hillary is pretty far down she should concede before the election to ensure this doesn’t happen. If it’s really close however then she needs to make sure the perception isn’t that this thing was done in some sneaky way…and Obama needs to do the same.
I think that whoever goes into the convention ahead, even if it’s marginally, should get the nod. And if THAT is the way it plays out…well, I expect the excitement and drama will go a long way to motivating the troops to push on to victory in November.
As ArchiveGuy’s post makes clear, if (big big if) Clinton does try to stay in it with anything other than big wins in both TX and OH then any harm that results from her only possible path to a nomination is not really on her head. It will more so lay on the shoulders of th inaction of Democratic leadership. They have it their power to do what supers are supposed to do: look out for the good of the party. They can make it clear that there will be no “supers to the rescue” (at the expense of the party’s best interests) by declaring for Obama in larger number. And I entirely expect that to happen barring a significant two-state victory for HRC.
I think young voters (and of course some older) want to get away from old-style politics. They’re told that McCain is the “maverick” and “independent” who’s a departure from old politics. Right or wrong, no one tries to claim that about Clinton with a straight face.
I’m not sure which “bunch” of social issues you refer to. I’m not saying they’re not there just that I can’t answer for the unknown. I think it would be easy to rationalize that abortion won’t change because it’s “the law” and the Democratic Senate won’t let McCain stuff the deck. I don’t agree with it but I could see someone convincing themselves of it. Especially if they feel like Clinton and/or the Democratic Party dicked them over on their first choice of “Change Candidate”. Young people are a cranky and cynical lot.
Hey, maybe I’m wrong. Hope I am, for all that. But I don’t think so.
If Obama’s momentum carries him today, and Clinton doesn’t win Texas and Ohio, I think she will concede. The Republicans are going to do everything Clinton has done, and much more, to knock Obama off message and distract from his campaign. So far, the only dirt on Obama is old news, with the exception of the out of context NAFTA statement. I predict this is going to be an exceptionally dirty campaign. Obama needs to put on the hazmat suit and fight fire with fire.
I agree, he needs to show he can dish it as well as take it. So far he can take it just fine, but dishing it has not been his strong suit. He will need to buck up for the McCain fight…His campaign staff has so far been spot on with their judgement, and he is doing exceptionally well. We’ll see after the final numbers come in how well they actually did but from the looks of his blog on his website, his ground troops in TX AND OH say people are flooding in to vote for him.
As I think about it, the best deal for the Democrats would be an open convention (so long as everyone makes nice at the end). The networks would give it much more coverage, and the viewing audience would be rather larger than otherwise. (At last, a Reality TV Show where the Grand Prize actually matters!)
I’m a hell of a lot more pessimistic than most everybody on this thread.
Full disclosure: I’m for Obama.
The stuff that unconventional says is “old news” and “out of context” IS WORKING. HRC has caught up in the polls in both Texas and Ohio and while the math may be daunting for her, if she takes the popular vote in both those states then the narrative suddenly changes. Obama will be the guy who can’t win the big states, doesn’t have the popular vote (maybe), gets his support from independents and Republicans and not from Democrats (maybe).
What’s worse, that crap about NAFTA and Rezko isn’t something that is best to get out early. The problem is that it’s March, there’s eight months to the election, and the longer period of time Mccain has to paint Obama as corrupt and hypocritical, the harder it will be for Obama to wash that off of himself.
Also, the problem with Obama’s campaign of hope is that it doesn’t allow him to do much in the way of dirty politicking. It’s a straitjacket. Otherwise, there would be a hell of a lot more politicians like him.
Sigh . . .
What do you mean “HRC has caught up in the polls”? She has generally been ahead, except for a few isolated polling results. As for Obama not being able to win in the big states, that’s nonsense. Any Democrat is going to win CA and NY and no Democrat is going to win TX.
I think this is one of the only, if not the first time I have disagreed with you on Obama. I think he does a perfect job of dishing it, just not the way that we are use to seeing. His campaign is proving that the adage ‘Defense Wins’ works not just with Super Bowls but elections as well. He and his staff are able to counter or brush off attacks effectively and with style. Plus, given the message of his campaign he has to walk a fine line while ‘dishing it’; so far he has had incredible balance.
Same goes for the “no substance” issue. The substance is there he just presents it with enough style that it is easy to miss. However, he has shown in the last couple debates he can wonk it up. As well, I’ve noticed his C-Span appearances lately have been less stump speech, and more town hall.
I am not saying I agree with her tactics by any means, or that the ends justify them, but I think Hillary being the ‘bad-guy’ durring these primaries is a big reason, as well as his small learning curve, for the amazing growth and development of Barack Obama as a Presidential candidate.
Hillary drawing it out and hillary doing harm to the party are two different things.
Here is what is doing harm to the party:
Hillary shitting on every aspect of the process:
She has shown contempt for every part of it that doesn’t go her way. She shits on anyone who isn’t for her. FL and MI? Well they obviously have to count, F U DNC! F U voters in red states, F U African Americans. Also let’s remember her lovely pitting of African Americans and Hispanics. That was classy.
Hillary is doing harm to Barack Obama that isn’t helpful to her winning.
So if she will run a slightly more tasteful campaign I don’t care if she runs. I don’t really even mind the “kitchen sink” approach towards Obama. It’s the shitting on the process and the trying to subvert the will of the voters that pisses me off. The longer she sits around insinuating that the super delegates are going to anoint her despite the will of the voters, yes, she is harming the party because a party that would allow such a thing would be an outrage. Unfortunately we as a party can’t reject that yet because the voting isn’t done.
That’s a big one for me. Senator Clinton has poured contempt on all parts of the primaries that don’t favor her. Caucuses don’t really count. Red state victories don’t really count. Black votes don’t really count. Obama’s supporters need to “get real” and stop just listening to fancy speeches as if they’re all just a brainwashed cult. I’ve heard her plan jokingly refered to as the “Insult 40 States” strategy and it’s hard to get excited about someone in November who, in March, was calling you an idiot for supporting Obama.
Or saying that you don’t really count.
I know my ‘Clinton is priming Obama’ conspiracy is just that and wishful thinking at best, but I just don’t understand her long term plans. Is it perhaps that she sees the more qualified and more likable women candidates on the horizon and thinks this is it for her, at least as far as Presidential contention goes? She seems to be determined to make that so, by leaving so many bridges in ash as her campaign burns on. Even with the broader field(pun not intended) to compete against in future election years she still would have been the woman to beat. As disturbing as her actions have been, I find her short-sightedness to be even more puzzling.
What ever her motives might be, I think she is only hurting herself and helping Obama. The Democratic Party as a whole will be fine as well, unless she some how pulls off a coup of the nomination; I don’t see this happening. My question is how might her rivalry with Obama carry over into her work in the Senate during his term(s)?
She’s acting like she’s running against Adolph Hitler. Can she seriously think that Obama would be that bad for the country? She acts like it’s a life or death thing.
Interesting form the DailyKos. It claims Hillary made Obama “blacker” in one of her ads. It also points out her misrepresentation of his committee work.
This is contemporary American politics, right or wrong, good or bad. It is reality. Don’t forget what the Republicans did to McCain in 2000. The same person responsible for spreading the smear in SC is now working for McCain’s campaign. There is no honor in politics. The Republicans will smear Obama in the general election without hesitation or lost sleep. The Clintons have also been the recipients of relentless Republican smear tactics. The Clintons are fighters. If Obama wants to win this election, he needs to be able to survive the ruthless political tactics that Clinton is throwing now and the Republicans will certainly throw later. I want Obama to win, but more importantly, I want a Democrat to win in November.