I just copied it out of the book! IIRC the paper I was looking for (which is one by Brennan and Buchanan) had a derivation that I remember thinking was neat, but I couldn’t find it. But, yeah, it’s a large numbers approximation.
Not really, although it might swing the number from 1/eleventy squillion to 2/eleventy squillion. You can chuck in anything you like into a calculation like that, including love of others. As an investment in the public interest, voting sucks. There are better payoffs available.
Now we’re in great debates, let me make it clear that I’m not knocking voting. Nor am I saying it’s irrational, or that it doesn’t in aggregate change things. I’m just saying that it doesn’t make sense to vote instrumentally in large number elections.
Well Governor Quinn, I live in pretty populated area and usually arrive in the thick of things so yeah the lines were that long. I’m sure there are places that have short lines.
I guess this is a hijack, but what is the popular obsession with having one’s vote decide an election?
I seriously doubt that anybody posts on one of these message boards under the idea that their message will be the final nail in the coffin of whatever issue is being discussed. And yet, here we all are, wasting our valuable time at work, home, or the library, just to express our opinions on some issue, that, in all likelihood, doesn’t really matter to our lives or the lives of those around us.
I, for one, do not have any expectation that my vote will be decisive in electing a candidate, defeating a proposition, or turning the course of history. My vote is my opinion, not a personal decree that must either be heeded or be irrelevant.
Isn’t it funny how the same people who think a SINGLE vote in an election is worthless are also the same ones buying a SINGLE lottery ticket thinking it will be worth millions? *
(*I am aware that they are mathematically distinct games; I am just reporting an anecdotal observation).
Voting also gives you the right to bitch at the current administration. It’s hypocritical for a non-voter to criticize office holders. When you don’t vote, you’re saying “I don’t care who wins”, and if you don’t care, quit your whining!
I think you’re wrong on both counts, Skeptico. I never vote and I also never purchase lottery tickets, because doing each of these things has some cost, but yields no real benefits.
And I have every right to bitch about the current administration, even though I did not vote, and will continue to do so. It’s my right as an American.
…but for many, even though the cost of voting and the cost of playing the lottery is the about same, the benefit they expect to get out of the lottery (the chance at a million bucks) is a lot more valuable to them than the benefit they expect out of an election (the chance of electing Joe Blow who won’t do anything for the voter anyway). So, it makes sense that some people may play the lottery but decline to vote.
You see, eman77, this is what happens when you admit that you don’t vote. People call you a hypocrite, they tell you you’re not doing enough, they say you’re freeloading off of others, blah, blah, blah. They can’t argue with your logic, which is sound, so instead they try to attack your character.
Here’s what you do- DON’T vote, but when people ask you who you voted for just lie to them and tell them you voted for so-and-so. Trust me, you’ll be glad you did. A large percentage of us non-voters lie and say we did.
I wasn’t offended by what you said, Skeptico, but when I started a thread here last year titled ‘Why Do People Vote?’, people said I was ‘lazy’, and someone even called me a ‘duffer’, whatever that means. Here’s the thread-
I really don’t care one way or the other about a person who doesn’t vote. Truth be told, if the person is an ignoramus who doesn’t know jack squat about what’s at stake in an election, I’d rather he didn’t vote - all it does is add white noise to the voting process.
What irks me, though, is when somebody bitches about whoever is in office, but doesn’t perform even the minimal amount of effort required to try to fix the situation - ie, voting. It’s analagous to a person who bitches about being poor while sitting on their ass refusing to try to find a job.
Jeff
The situations are only superficially analagous, and I will bitch all day long about the political system, especially the voting system, which forces my no-vote out of disgust with the voting system (i.e.- the beauty pageant we call “representative democracy” somehow with a straight face) with the no-vote from apathy.
In 1958 Zanzibar (three islands off the east coast of Africa) was a self-governing colony of Britain, due for independence in the near future and running its own internal affairs through an elected parliamentary government. Elections that year were very closely contested between the Zanzibar Nationalist and Afro-Shirazi Parties. One constituency, on the island of Pemba, was the Chake Chake district. The winning candidate in Chake Chake won the election by a single vote, and was in turn the swing vote in a single-vote majority for the winning party in the Zanzibar Parliament. So effectively every single voter in Chake Chake had the indirect effect of choosing the next Prime Minister for the islands.
The town of Montague, New York, has a population of about 50, with perhaps 20 legal voters, and a full town slate of officials (which constitutes about half the electorate). People regularly win local elections there by nine-to-seven or ten-to-nine majorities. (It’s a “town” in New York parlance, what would be a “township” outside New York and New England – and is located about halfway between Pulaski and Lowville, if you’re trying to find it on a map.
This might come as a shocker to those who know that I not only support the Electoral College system, but also support the idea that the Elector constitutionally can cast his vote however he or she darn well feels (subject to the person voted for being constitutionally eligible for the office concerned).
I think that regardless of the Electoral College system and the legally irrelevant outcome of my vote (unless, of course, one of the political party’s selection committee makes the biggest mistake of their lives and nominates me as an Elector), I should vote in each and every presidential election. That way, I am part of the electorate who has voiced an opinion on the matter. No matter the outcome of the “real election” (the EC’s actual vote), the electorate’s opinion will be there for the world to see.
Wow, I hope I made sense in that. Feel free to let me know if all I did was babble.
I am realistic about my share of influence, but I do vote in every election.
A few years back, I dated a woman who was related to Patrick Buchanan, with whom I agree on almost nothing. Had the relationship progressed, I planned to register as a Republican (I have always been an independent) and vote for him every time he ran.
My reasoning was that a half hour of regular face time at family gatherings with a marginal candidate like PB was more input to the system than a single popular vote. It was worth trading my vote for the ability to honestly look him in the eye and say, “Pat, I voted for you, but I think you’re wrong about…”
