One thing that is important to understand is that when NASA Eagleworks reports having measured thrust, they don’t actually have a discrete measurement of the thrust load or observed acceleration above a noise floor; the level of thrust this device is purported to develop is far too low for that. Instead, they get mesurements of the angular distortion of a torsional pendulum (that are on the order of a few millionths of a radian or less), calclaute what the nominal gravity and other external loads should be, and then use some kind of a stochastic optimal estimator like a Kalman filter to extract the anomalous thrust from the mean level. What this results in is some estimated level of anomalous thrust at a certain degree of statistical confidence which assumes that you’ve characterized the time-dependent changes in the known external loads to a corresponding degree. And one of the problems with this approach is that if you are looking for a specific trend in the data, you tend to find that trend unless you carefully and critically evaluate both the quantitative quality of the regression and the qualitative difference between your expectation and “random” statististical noise. The upshot is that it is like listening for a whisper in a hurricane and should require repeated and consistent results at independent laboratories before this could really be considered as being a verified measurement much less consistent with some theoretical prediction.
As for the effect itself, a system that could produce net thrust without expelling propellant according to the conservation of momentum would certainly be a violation of physics as we understand it. There are a number proposed variations on this type of resonant caivty drive system (EmDrive, Cannae Drive/Q-Drive, Dean Drive, et cetera), but no consistent or often even coherent theory among the proponents (Robert Shawyer and Guide Fetta each state that the other’s device shouldn’t work with the given configuration, yet both report positive results). Up until now, experimental test data has been sparse and not peer-reviewed and so hasn’t been a credible basis for challenging a basic principle of general relativity (the invariance of proper mass, Lorentz symmetry, and local conservation of momentum) but if anomalous thrust can be independently confirmed as repeatable at the same order of magnitude it would point to a need to reevaluate those dearly held principles, just as the apparently ‘simple’ problems of no measurable bias of the luminiferous aether and the anomalous photoelectric effect ultimate lead to modern physics as we know it (relativity and quantum mechanics, respectively). Although such an extraordinary claim would require extraordinarily rigorous evidence and some coherent theory to back it up, any student of modern physics will admit that we have an enormous gulf of ignorance in connecting gravitation and the field theories that underly the Standard Model (and by implication, gravitational mass and inertial mass) and the fact that all but the most trivial solutions to phenomena in general relativity can only be solved by using a mean field approximation. (This is because of the complexity of the full formulation of the Einstein Field Equations, not that the theory is known to be inherently wrong, but it does allow that even our most precise experimental verifications may have room for additional, more subtle phenomena.)
One interesting suggestion–I won’t call it a theory because it has some substantial leaps of deduction and lack of genuinely falsifiable hypothesis–is laid out in James Woodward’s Making Starships and Stargates: The Science of Interstellar Transport and Absurdly Benign Wormholes as a modification of one interpretation of the so-called Mach’s principle as formulated by Dennis Sciama back in the 1950s; in effect, that the inertial mass of an object is a result of its interactions with the mass of the rest of the universe, and that there can be transient mass fluctuations that can give the appearance as being reactionless change of momentum to the local observer but are no more a violation of global conservation of momentum than a spacecraft performing a gravitational swing-by manuever. However, allowing for this field interaction over non-causal distances requires some massive retooling of general relativity along the lines of Feynman-Wheeler absorber theory, and suggesting that some nonlocal transactional phenomenon (modeled as a standing wave formed by advanced and retarded components going forward and backward in time). Nobody really likes this interpretation in quantum electrodynamic field theory so extending it to gravitation is not a a comfortable pill to swallow. Anyway, Woodward, like other researchers, has claimed to have demonstrated effects consistent with this theory but not in a peer-reviewed or independently verified format, so we can take his proposed effect (which again does not yet rise to the degree of qualification to be considered a falsifiable theory) with a grain of sodium chloride.
The sum total is that there are plausible explanations for why this effect may occur and experiemental results could be genuine (or at least reflect something other than just pure measurement error), and certainly value in spending a very small amount of funding (compared to the overall NASA budget) to evaluate them in more detail, but we are still far from declaring that Einstein relativity is dead. I’m inclined to give the current experiements a little more than just 1% chance of being something other than measurement error (more out of hopeful optimism than rigorous methodological evaluation) but not anywhere close to breaking out the champaign or planning a trip to Betelgeuse. And even if the effect is real, there may be practical limits to the extend or efficiency of thrust than can be produced that may render it more of a novelty or applications such as high orbit stationkeeping than general propulsion.
Stranger