New York/New England here. I’ve always heard the phrase used to mean “here’s my offer”. It usually carries the connotation of “I don’t really have to negotiate but I’ll make this offer just to settle things quickly or to make it sporting”.
eta: I’ll amend this to say that I have heard it used like seanchai described above: somebody saying “I tell you what I think…” or “I tell you what I’d do…” When used like that its meaning is literal - the speaker is now going to tell you what he thinks or would do.