There’s only 6 weeks between the first and second debates though. As long as a candidate is close and there’s the arbitrary nature, why drop? Even if you are so broke you aren’t doing much but keeping core staff for debate prep there’s a shot of reinvigorating the campaign. The lead in debate offers some interesting possibilities too. Nobody will be paying attention… unless there’s that big moment. With the jaws closing, especially for the candidates who are two time misses of the main stage, the incentive to take risks might be higher. That lead in debate might be incredibly fun to watch in a car wreck kind of way. 
Whoever has the shallowest pockets, I guess.
The polls say his constituency is somewhere between minuscule and mythical. 
He won’t be around for SC; he will be one of the first to get tired of being at the kiddie table, since he’s used to be taken seriously on the Sunday talk shows and stuff, and this won’t help him seem serious. And unlike a lot of the other likely kiddie-table candidates, as a sitting U.S. Senator, he does have something meaningful to do besides run for President. (Yeah, I know, Jindal’s a governor, but he’s trying to run away from Louisiana’s problems at this point. That’ll keep him in, rather than pull him out.)
Pataki, then Graham.
After that, it’s hard to say. The rest of the kiddie table at this point looks to be Fiorina, Santorum, Jindal, and probably Perry. None of them has something else they’d rather be doing, and ego won’t let them admit they’re toast until their campaigns close because there isn’t money to pay the bills. So they’ll all put up with a couple rounds of kiddie table, is my guess.
Anyone who doesn’t make it into the first debate won’t make it into the second, either.
They all stay in till the Iowa Caucus. Then, I think maybe Huckaby or Santorum if they don’t show well. Both were big hits in Iowa years ago, a poor showing this time around will make them reconsider.
Also, I think the Cruz might drop with a poor showing in Iowa.
Another vote for Fiorina.
Her only hope was to be able to push the business outsider ticket in hopes of attracting the who hate politicians and think that running a government like a business would actually work, but Trump has that group pretty much sealed up. I also suspect that like Trump this was more a vanity thing than anything else (when your that rich what else do you have to spend money on?) and with Trump sucking up all her press there isn’t much point in continuing.
OK, Pataki, then Graham, then Fiorina. Once she realizes that even her role as designated Hillary-basher isn’t getting her any attention anymore, she’ll hang it up.
But Santorum, Jindal, and Perry will all stick it out through at least two kiddie tables.
Ben Carson, who is essentially gone from the media eye already.
Carson has the most positive approval ratings among any Republican. No way.
Former governor of Virginia, 1998-2002. He’s announced that he’s going to announce next week. Not quite a random bozo off the street, but politically he’s way more of a has-been than Pataki, even.
I think when it comes to the guys that pretty much don’t have a chance. . . why drop out? Like Pataki, Gilmore, Fiorina, Jindal and others. These guys must be in it for the long haul, they’re setting up for next time, they’re trying to establish some ground work this time around. So, there is no real reason for them to drop out, period, especially not early. Or hell, maybe they just hope they get a show of FOX News, or sell some books. Why drop out?
They’ll get out fairly early, but not early early as in this year. Especially in the GOP primaries, overachieving can give one credibility for the next run. After all, unless your name is Bush, you have to compete in a primary and lose before you get to compete and win.
The great thing about IA and NH is that a candidate can compete and win without money. It’s all about retail politics in those places. So one of the underdog candidates could conceivably shake enough hands, do enough town halls, sit down for enough local interviews to finish strong in Iowa, or perhaps even win it as Huck did in 2008.
I dunno - the party may want to find a way to keep the token woman and the token black guy from being the first two to be kicked off the short bus.
I don’t think Carson will buck out too early. Carson’s whole political existence is running around giving speeches, which is basically what he is doing as a candidate. So there isn’t really any point to his dropping out.
Carson is actually doing very well in the pre-primary process:
Plus as I said before, he’s the only Republican with a net positive approval rating. He’s not going anywhere until the primaries start.
Except for, you know, the polls part.
2 percent to 1 percent is positive, gotta give you that. But do please note that you’re saying all of your relatively sane, experienced candidates, as well as all of the crazies except Carson (even using your own data) are underwater. That’s the same reason you’re claiming Clinton can’t win, even though she’s well above water.
He’s going to the kiddie-table debate, for one thing. Then to Fox, either right after Huckabee’s show or as the go-to guest on O’Reilly etc.
According to the polling, he’s very solidly in the debate. He’s in 5th.
Given how often he says something dumb, I would think he might benefit from being at the kiddie table rather than the real debate. His incredibly stupid comments would be less likely to be noticed that way.
We’ll see. His campaign has been remarkably transparent, Armstrong Williams has been telling him openly to not say some of the stuff he says, and he grudgingly agrees he shouldn’t say it. And he’s learning, because there’s been less dumb stuff and the dumb stuff isn’t as dumb.
He needs the debates to get over the top, so he’s got to be on, and disciplined. The only candidate who I think benefits from not being on that stage is Rick Perry.
If Trump flames out, I think Ben Carson will be in a good spot to pick up voters who hate the political establishment.
I’d say Chris Christie or Bobby Jindal. Both of them have a state to run. They cannot afford to sink their political career any further with presidential campaigns that go nowhere. Both are running now because someone thought for ten minutes in 2013 that they might have a chance.