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-   -   Mayor of Los Angeles Projects 56% infection (https://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=892137)

HoneyBadgerDC 03-19-2020 11:16 PM

Mayor of Los Angeles Projects 56% infection
 
What makes Los Angeles so different from China? Does he know something we don't? That would be over 25 million in Ca!!!

Happy Lendervedder 03-19-2020 11:24 PM

From what I've seen, it's Newsom, not Garcetti, who is making the 56% projection.

Voyager 03-20-2020 02:08 AM

He also said that many of the infected might never know it, having no major symptoms.

Anyhow, welcome to lockdown, rest of California. Kiss your traffic good bye.

Melbourne 03-20-2020 04:07 AM

I'm hearing similar projections in Australia, if we don't manage to keep control. A 56% projection implies that it gets out of control, or is already out of control.

not what you'd expect 03-20-2020 06:07 AM

Maybe China isn't being totally honest with the numbers?

That's one rumor anyway.

monstro 03-20-2020 06:36 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by not what you'd expect (Post 22200050)
Maybe China isn't being totally honest with the numbers?

That's one rumor anyway.

I think that may be the case.

But China literally welded people into their homes to contain this thing. I have no doubt they did other things that would be unthinkable (and for good reason) in the US.

So I think people should be careful about extrapolating too much from China.

HoneyBadgerDC 03-20-2020 08:13 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by monstro (Post 22200075)
I think that may be the case.

But China literally welded people into their homes to contain this thing. I have no doubt they did other things that would be unthinkable (and for good reason) in the US.

So I think people should be careful about extrapolating too much from China.

With a population the size of China it is hard to believe that the containment could have been so effective. If it was in fact been that effective as soon as it is relaxed they will have another wave unless it has already run through the country. At any rate it is almost certain many times more people were infected than we know which would make the virus considerably less dangerous,

Melbourne 03-21-2020 04:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by not what you'd expect (Post 22200050)
Maybe China isn't being totally honest with the numbers?

That's one rumor anyway.


China is handling the epidemic as a political crisis, and suppressing all discussion and reporting, but production is resuming. Either 60% of their population has already recovered from COVID-19 with no symptoms, or their epidemic is contained for the present without 60% infection. This doesn't require that China is being totally honest.

Eventually the world will go to 60% infection, or a vaccine will be developed. California will go to 60% infection if a vaccine is not developed first. California will go to 60% infection before a vaccine is developed if it's already too late, or if social distancing and isolation are not effective in California -- a place that is culturally distinct from both Wuhan and Venice.

One possible outcome is that one day, 2/3 of all our kids will get COVID-19 infections when they are young, just like any other cold, and only the few who miss it when young will get a serious case when older.

Snowboarder Bo 03-21-2020 04:43 PM

One possible outcome is that 1/19 of all our kids will get the disease and turn into unicorn mooses with a penchant for bad puns.

Another is that recovering from COVID-19 doesn't convey any kind of immunity from future infections.

Procrustus 03-21-2020 04:50 PM

The governor of NY said he expects infection rates of 30% to 60% (if I recall correctly)
So 56% is in that range (although strangely specific)

RickJay 03-21-2020 07:09 PM

I'm sure he got it from one of the thousands of prediction models being passed around.

For all we know, LA is ALREADY 56% infected.

Dr. Drake 03-21-2020 08:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by monstro (Post 22200075)
But China literally welded people into their homes to contain this thing.

I have heard this rumour, but it makes no sense from a logistics perspective. Do you have an authoritative source for it?

monstro 03-21-2020 08:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dr. Drake (Post 22202851)
I have heard this rumour, but it makes no sense from a logistics perspective. Do you have an authoritative source for it?

Two videos:
https://twitter.com/TimLinFreedom/st...61647727693825

https://hoodsite.com/china-authoriti...us-quarantine/

Dr. Drake 03-21-2020 08:47 PM

Thank you. I remain skeptical, but I can't dismiss it out of hand.

(Skepticism: I can see people welding doors in the videos, but I don't know why, and the second one clearly cuts "don't force us into lockdown" footage with random door welding. Surely locks would be easier and cheaper to install and remove? But what I don't know about China would fill libraries, so maybe...)


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