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-   -   What will things be like in 6 mos? 12 mos? (https://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=892170)

Dinsdale 03-20-2020 10:42 AM

What will things be like in 6 mos? 12 mos?
 
Does anyone have any thoughts as to what society will be like some months in the future? Feel free to answer best case vs worst case scenarios.

How many people will have died from COVID19?
Will we still be on some form of lockdown?
Will restaurants be open?
Will we be able to buy food? TP?

I don't wish to be either alarmist or sanguine. Just trying to get my head around what the future reasonably holds.

I guess my main hope is that if I and my loved ones catch it, we aren't in the small percentage w/severe reactions. Barring that, longterm lockdown is one thing, so long as we can buy food and supplies, and have access to media.

Any reason to think so many farmers, factory workers, truckers/store workers will be knocked out at any one time such that the food/supply chain will be broken? What are you thinking the likely longer term path of this will be? What lessons can we take from what other countries have already experienced?

Leaper 03-20-2020 10:50 AM

As I’ve said elsewhere, if the food supply chain is threatened, I think that’s when restrictions are going to be relaxed and attention refocused. No lockdown can survive that without serious brutality, and I don’t think there are enough cops and soldiers to deliver food.

RTFirefly 03-20-2020 12:40 PM

So much depends on just how bad it gets, whether we can flatten the curve enough to keep from getting into "Italy, hold my beer" territory. But right now, I have no fucking clue what things will be like when April turns into May, and everything else is contingent on that.

Dinsdale 03-20-2020 01:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RTFirefly (Post 22200629)
So much depends on just how bad it gets, whether we can flatten the curve enough to keep from getting into "Italy, hold my beer" territory. ...

But ISTM that even if we flatten the curve, we'll want to basically continue self-isolating to keep the curve relatively flat. No? if we flatten the curve, how long before we expect it to start going down? 6 months? A year? No one knows?

I find the various timetables somewhat confusing. I assume the thought is, we impose these lims for 2 weeks, or a month, or whatever, and then see where we stand and whether we need to continue them or ramp them up. But it sorta suggests that things will be "different" - if not better - in 2 weeks, or a month, or whatever.

drad dog 03-20-2020 01:18 PM

I think the two weeks will be a hurdle for the virus and slow it down, with the hope of a vaccine in a year or two. The benefit of the two weeks social distancing will be to help us make it to 2022. This is even if we don't do it after the two weeks. It's demographic.

Wesley Clark 03-20-2020 01:22 PM

My hope is that within a month or two we have a larger supply of respirators and drugs that we know can fight hte virus when it becomes severe.

Also hopefully affordable testing for people to test if they've already had it, so those people can be moved to more necessary jobs since they've already been infected.

Stuff like that will make this much easier to deal with.

monstro 03-20-2020 01:45 PM

My boss asked me if I wanted to go to an EPA workshop on nutrient pollution scheduled at the beginning of June. I told him yes, but I really wanted to ask him something like, "Do you think anyone's going to care about algae three months from now?" My mind is already preparing for a new world order.

Leaper 03-20-2020 02:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by monstro (Post 22200721)
My boss asked me if I wanted to go to an EPA workshop on nutrient pollution scheduled at the beginning of June. I told him yes, but I really wanted to ask him something like, "Do you think anyone's going to care about algae three months from now?"

I think someone should. If it was important before, itís still important after weíre trying to figure out where to go medically.

The wind of my soul 03-20-2020 02:36 PM

I acknowledge my ignorance here, and I am saying this largely in hopes that someone more knowledgeable than I am can fill in the gaps:

My understanding is that this virus started in China right around the beginning of the year. And now, China has gone two days without a single new reported case. And I don't think China imposed the kind of restrictions and lock-downs that the U.S. has. (I apologize to non-American dopers. When I see this question, my mind immediately jumps to the question of "What will the U.S. be like in six months? One year?" since that's the question of primary importance to me.)

Therefore, I would hesitantly guess that six months from now, the hoopla will have died down and the U.S. will be mostly back to normal. The economy will have taken a big hit, but it will be in recovery by that point.

But that scenario is incredibly optimistic and my confidence level is low. Part of me that feels like this severe quarantine is going to extend the impact of the virus, because if it spread like wildfire, then within six months most people would have acquired it, gotten over it, and become immune to it. Instead, it will remain in society in levels just high enough that many people will be nervous about going to restaurants and events for a good while afterwards, and that nervousness would quite apparent one year later (probably for several years), and the economy will take a long-term hit from that unless people can come up with innovative new ways to tap into the societal fear of crowds.

Chad Sudan 03-20-2020 02:36 PM

My speculation is that we could see some form of restrictions on commerce and on movement until the end of 2020.

Predictions are not worth much, but take a look at these charts:

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...-response.html

My other speculation is that the US will have a much higher peak of cases per capita than China. The US isn't testing nearly as many people as it should, and it can't employ China's severe police-state methods. Add to that the wide variations in state responses, and the bottomless capacity for incompetence at the federal level.

FlikTheBlue 03-20-2020 03:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dinsdale (Post 22200654)
But ISTM that even if we flatten the curve, we'll want to basically continue self-isolating to keep the curve relatively flat. No? if we flatten the curve, how long before we expect it to start going down? 6 months? A year? No one knows?

I find the various timetables somewhat confusing. I assume the thought is, we impose these lims for 2 weeks, or a month, or whatever, and then see where we stand and whether we need to continue them or ramp them up. But it sorta suggests that things will be "different" - if not better - in 2 weeks, or a month, or whatever.

Given the information coming out of China, I think 2 months is enough to eliminate the virus from spreading for any country who imposes China level restrictions. Letís say another 2 months at most for people who are ill to get over the illness. That would mean by the middle of summer we could eliminate Covid-19. As an added benefit a multitude of other viruses would disappear as well (no more stomach flu :)).

The problem is that achieving that outcome requires the whole world to participate in a China style lockdown. I think the odds of that happening are near zero.

Wesley Clark 03-20-2020 03:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The wind of my soul (Post 22200796)
I acknowledge my ignorance here, and I am saying this largely in hopes that someone more knowledgeable than I am can fill in the gaps:

My understanding is that this virus started in China right around the beginning of the year. And now, China has gone two days without a single new reported case. And I don't think China imposed the kind of restrictions and lock-downs that the U.S. has. (I apologize to non-American dopers. When I see this question, my mind immediately jumps to the question of "What will the U.S. be like in six months? One year?" since that's the question of primary importance to me.)

Therefore, I would hesitantly guess that six months from now, the hoopla will have died down and the U.S. will be mostly back to normal. The economy will have taken a big hit, but it will be in recovery by that point.

But that scenario is incredibly optimistic and my confidence level is low. Part of me that feels like this severe quarantine is going to extend the impact of the virus, because if it spread like wildfire, then within six months most people would have acquired it, gotten over it, and become immune to it. Instead, it will remain in society in levels just high enough that many people will be nervous about going to restaurants and events for a good while afterwards, and that nervousness would quite apparent one year later (probably for several years), and the economy will take a long-term hit from that unless people can come up with innovative new ways to tap into the societal fear of crowds.

The problem is that some people who have it never show symptoms, and among people who get it they are contagious for days before they show symptoms. So its hard to keep this infection under control due to those reasons.

echoreply 03-20-2020 04:11 PM

I keep saying we're on week 1 of 100. To me, that is likely worst case. Maybe every time we relax restrictions, the virus takes off again, the vaccines in development now don't work out, none of the antiviral treatments do much, acquired immunity is weak, etc. Best case is this all looks like a complete overreaction, and the pandemic burns out quickly with low impact. I think the worst case is much more likely than the best case.

My realistic case is that things here happen similar as to South Korea. We massively ramp up testing. As in a few billion test kits available in the US. People can be tested frequently and quarantined if they're sick. People exposed can be tested and quarantined or let go. Hospitals get swamped and pushed to the absolute limit, but wartime levels of production repurposing means that PPE, respirators, and drugs are no longer the limiting factors, but space and staffing always will be. Hopefully some off label drug use will be found to be therapeutic, so severe cases can be treated, rather than just ventilating and waiting.

We won't know if what we're doing now is working until May.

Velocity 03-20-2020 04:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The wind of my soul (Post 22200796)
My understanding is that this virus started in China right around the beginning of the year. And now, China has gone two days without a single new reported case. And I don't think China imposed the kind of restrictions and lock-downs that the U.S. has.

China imposed far tougher restrictions and lockdowns than America. It's why they have largely peaked and plateaued and are near wrapping up their epidemic, while America is but at the beginning of what could be a year of mayhem.

Melbourne 03-21-2020 11:19 PM

China started in November, and if you think you are sick, they invite you to sign a form confirming that you are voluntarily self-quarantining. Then they post the form on your door, with a phone number your neighbors can call if they see you outside. If you break quarantine --- they have quarantine hospitals for people who break quarantine, and everybody knows it. Last week a journalist who had been reporting on the epidemic live streamed himself being arrested and taken away to a "quarantine hospital".

On the most hopeful estimates for the USA, the rate of increase will level out in a month, the total number will level out in 3 months, and in 6 months all will be back to normal.

Even if the critical hotspots are damped out, the virus will become more and more widespread, People who are in infection hotspots have higher risk now: that will come down if the infection is contained. People who are in safe remote areas now, who never travel, who don't meet anyone from out-of-state, and who are presently at low risk of infection, will gradually become more at risk as the virus spreads through the whole community.

PastTense 03-22-2020 12:31 AM

I think the availability of essential goods and services (food, utilities, etc) will be fine--except hospitals which will be overwhelmed with COVID-19 patients. If you have 20% out sick other employees can do overtime or you can drop marginal activities or you can hire new employees from the massive pool of unemployed (unemployed because they used to do non-essential goods and services).

It really doesn't matter if restaurants are open are not in 3 to 6 months--why would you want to go when there is a significant risk of getting COVID-19 (which is what most people will think)?

R3d Anonymous 03-22-2020 12:50 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PastTense (Post 22203247)
It really doesn't matter if restaurants are open are not in 3 to 6 months--why would you want to go when there is a significant risk of getting COVID-19 (which is what most people will think)?

A lot of people, even if they are considerate about other people getting sick and thus following social distancing recommendations, probably believe that the risk to self is worth it, especially if under 55 with no pre-existing conditions.

A lot of people, even elderly, but especially those in their 20s, even now, are in the mindset of, "If I get corona, I get corona. This is not going to stop me from partying."

Which if we're basing this on merely personal risk, I don't blame them and am probably inclined to agree as a healthy 22-year-old. If it was just about me, I'd take the risk and keep living normally. It's asymptomatic in 75% of those aged 20-29, with only 1.2% requiring hospitalization (presumably, those with co-morbid factors of some sort).

Conversely, a lot of elderly themselves I've heard have the attitude of, "I've lived long enough and I'm going to die soon anyway. Not going to waste a high percentage of my probably remaining lifespan staying inside and not fulfilling myself."

That said, a lot of people (myself included) have been following social distancing recommendations for a week now because at the moment, this isn't just about the mere risk to healthy persons themselves, but more so about indirectly passing it to the elderly (especially in poor health).

russian heel 03-22-2020 03:25 AM

What will things be like in 6 mos? 12 mos?
 
Quote:

How many people will have died from COVID19?
35,000 initially, 6 figures by the time its over in 18 months. Disturbing as it may seem, similar to a flu outbreak

Quote:

Will we still be on some form of lockdown?
By next week, Trump will announce a national quarantine.

Quote:

Will restaurants be open?
By May in many affected states. Bars will be closed and restaurants will be required to only take so many patrons via reservation.

Quote:

Will we be able to buy food? TP?
Food will always be available in some form. Toilet paper? Who knows with these hoarding idiots.

Quote:

Barring that, longterm lockdown is one thing, so long as we can buy food and supplies, and have access to media.
Odds are overwhelmingly in your family. It’s is the media’s best interest to make sure it’s available to you. One way to think of social distancing is you are being asked to stay home and watch TV, play video games, fuck, read, find a hobby, and spend time with your kids for several weeks. Not the worst deal.

Quote:

Any reason to think so many farmers, factory workers, truckers/store workers will be knocked out at any one time such that the food/supply chain will be broken?
Only of their ranks are decimated by disease however the demand for food, manufactured goods, truckers and retail workers will not only keep our supply lines alive, but filled with workers that need jobs.[/quote]

Quote:

What are you thinking the likely longer term path of this will be? What lessons can we take from what other countries have already experienced?
This will result in the worst recession since the Great Depression (not the GD because we have so many economic tools that will create that from happening and the new jobs suddenly created by this pandemic will help offset the jobs lost).

Donald Trump, if not removed from office, will be voted out because enough Americans will have lost jobs or seen relatives killed that they will take it out at the ballot box in November.

Based on countries that have turned the wave, enforced social distancing, monitoring or those infected, and massive testing seem to have worked.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

AK84 03-22-2020 03:38 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Velocity (Post 22200958)
China imposed far tougher restrictions and lockdowns than America. It's why they have largely peaked and plateaued and are near wrapping up their epidemic, while America is but at the beginning of what could be a year of mayhem.

:dubious::smack::rolleyes:
No they didnít. They just are a lot more efficient in tackling crises. They havenít gutted their Government apparatus in the name of ideology*.

*Well they did 50 years ago and learnt what a bad idea it was.

chappachula 03-22-2020 06:28 AM

Quote:

I think the availability of essential goods and services (food, utilities, etc) will be fine
Quote:

Food will always be available in some form
Why is everyone so sure that food will always be available?
The supply chain from farm to supermarket includes a LOT of stuff that isn't food:

Take, for example,packaging. Plastic, little wire ties for bread, paper cartons, etc.
That packaging has to be labelled, so you need printing presses and colored inks.
The inks are made by , I suppose, ink factories. Will the ink factories be operating if half their employees are quarantined?
The packaging is done under hygienic limitations, so I suppose you need hair nets for the employees. The hair nets have elastic edges. The elastic is made from rubber (I suppose). And I suppose the rubber is drawn from trees in Africa, and somehow imported to America. The importer needs licenses from unknown government agencies, who are not working right now.
(Gee, this is kinda fun.....!)

Okays, so despite my somewhat silly list , my point is valid:
Supply chains have hundreds of links.

And each weak link, when it breaks, will have to be patched before you get your Frosted Flakes at Costco..

chappachula 03-22-2020 06:31 AM

Quote:

I think the availability of essential goods and services (food, utilities, etc) will be fine
Quote:

Food will always be available in some form
Why is everyone so sure that food will always be available?
The supply chain from farm to supermarket includes a LOT of stuff that isn't food:

Take, for example,packaging. Plastic, little wire ties for bread, paper cartons, etc.
That packaging has to be labelled, so you need printing presses and colored inks.
The inks are made by , I suppose, ink factories. Will the ink factories be operating if half their employees are quarantined?
The packaging is done under hygienic limitations, so I suppose you need hair nets for the employees. The hair nets have elastic edges. The elastic is made from rubber (I suppose). And I suppose the rubber is drawn from trees in Africa, and somehow imported to America. The importer needs licenses from unknown government agencies, who are not working right now.
(Gee, this is kinda fun.....!)

Okays, so despite my somewhat silly list , my point is valid:
Supply chains have hundreds of links.

And each weak link, when it breaks, will have to be patched before you get your Frosted Flakes at Costco..


(edit for typos--damned 504Error created double post. Sorry)


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