Straight Dope Message Board

Straight Dope Message Board (https://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/index.php)
-   Politics & Elections (https://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/forumdisplay.php?f=34)
-   -   Nevada Caucuses Discussion (https://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=889934)

Saint Cad 02-12-2020 10:18 AM

Nevada Caucuses Discussion
 
It looks like a 3 person race now. You have Bernie the non-Democrat and Pete the Mayor in the lead. Klobuchar had a great showing in NH and now the question is was that a one-off or does she have some momentum.

Joe "Git off mah lawn!" Biden is done and Elizabeth "Sure I drink beer" Warren is on her way out. Is there anything that can happen in Nevada to change that?

Thing Fish 02-12-2020 11:26 AM

Who the hell knows?

The polls show Sanders leading with Biden the only other real contender, but there haven't been any polls in the last month! Clearly those campaigns are still way ahead of the others in terms of organizational infrastructure, though. Nevada Democratic kingpin Harry Reid hasn't made an endorsement yet, that could shift a lot of votes.

What I'm most interested in: the polls are saying that Latinos are part of Bernie's base now. It will be interesting to see if that holds up when actual voting starts; if so, that will be a huge asset to him there (and more importantly, in pretty much all of the biggest States).

enalzi 02-12-2020 11:34 AM

Here's a good article form the last election about how terrible Nevada polling is:
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...polls-are-bad/

That Don Guy 02-12-2020 11:53 AM

For those of you interested in details, here's "the quick version" of how Nevada is different from Iowa:

There are only two rounds of voting - if a candidate does not get at least 15% of the vote at a location in the first round, those voters must either switch to one that did get at least 15% or leave the caucus. There is no "trying to get other voters to join you" like there was in Iowa.

Also, if I am reading the delegate selection plan right, there are no "state delegate equivalents" involved; the national convention delegates will be based on the actual number of votes at the precinct caucuses.

Note that Nevada has four Congressional districts; district 1 (pretty much the Las Vegas area) gets 5 delegates, each of the other three get 6, and there are 13 delegates based on the statewide totals.

DrDeth 02-12-2020 12:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Saint Cad (Post 22134710)
..

Joe "Git off mah lawn!" Biden is done ...

No one expected Joe to do well in Iowa or NH. His real test is in SD.

Caucuses are weird things and Sanders will do better there.

enalzi 02-12-2020 12:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DrDeth (Post 22134911)
No one expected Joe to do well in Iowa or NH. His real test is in SD.

I think there's a difference between "not doing well" and "completely bombing." It's not a good look especially when his whole message just seems to be "I'm the guy who will win an election against Trump."

Saint Cad 02-12-2020 12:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DrDeth (Post 22134911)
No one expected Joe to do well in Iowa or NH. His real test is in SD.

Caucuses are weird things and Sanders will do better there.

I can't believe anyone believed Biden would be #3 and barely viable in IA and last place with no delegates in NH.

dalej42 02-12-2020 12:14 PM

Pete is fluent in Spanish which should help. He’s got 100 staffers now after reallocation of staff from IA and NH. New ad buy spotlighting Medicare for all who want it, which should be popular with the unions there that already have Cadillac health plans. A lot of unions sacrifice some wage increases for those health plans.

https://thenevadaindependent.com/art...estment-in-ads

Saint Cad 02-12-2020 12:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by That Don Guy (Post 22134897)
There are only two rounds of voting - if a candidate does not get at least 15% of the vote at a location in the first round, those voters must either switch to one that did get at least 15% or leave the caucus. There is no "trying to get other voters to join you" like there was in Iowa.

This might be the biggest thing about NV then. Assuming Klobucher gets 15% out of the gate, seeing who the Biden and Warren (assuming less than 15%) supporters migrate to.

enalzi 02-12-2020 12:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by That Don Guy (Post 22134897)

There are only two rounds of voting - if a candidate does not get at least 15% of the vote at a location in the first round, those voters must either switch to one that did get at least 15% or leave the caucus. There is no "trying to get other voters to join you" like there was in Iowa.

Didn't they get rid of the whole "trying to get other voters to join you" thing in Iowa this year, which was part of the confusion?

Also, speaking of Iowa, Nevada was going to use the same app that caused all the problems but now aren't. But changing plans with only a few weeks to go might just cause a whole nother batch of problems.

DrDeth 02-12-2020 01:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Saint Cad (Post 22134923)
I can't believe anyone believed Biden would be #3 and barely viable in IA and last place with no delegates in NH.

Actually they thought he would be 3rd in Iowa. No one, even Joe, thought he would do well in those two states. Come back after SD.

Saint Cad 02-12-2020 01:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DrDeth (Post 22135065)
Actually they thought he would be 3rd in Iowa. No one, even Joe, thought he would do well in those two states. Come back after SD.

Notice the conjunction AND
Also, I don't understand why you think we need to wait all the way to June 2nd to see how "Crazy Uncle Joe" Biden does in the primary. It's pretty much over by then.

That Don Guy 02-12-2020 01:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by enalzi (Post 22135017)
Didn't they get rid of the whole "trying to get other voters to join you" thing in Iowa this year, which was part of the confusion?

Not exactly. What they got rid of was the ability to get people who had voted for somebody with at least 15% to join you. Starting this year, only voters for candidates below 15% could switch.

That Don Guy 02-12-2020 01:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DrDeth (Post 22135065)
Actually they thought he would be 3rd in Iowa. No one, even Joe, thought he would do well in those two states. Come back after SD.

SD (South Dakota), or SC (South Carolina)? You have said SD twice.

Thing Fish 02-12-2020 01:45 PM

The desperate spin here is amusing.

538 predicted Biden would finish a close second with 26% of the vote in Iowa. He got 14% and finished barely above fifth. That caused his expectations to be much lower in NH, where he was projected to get 12% and finish fourth. Yet he actually managed to do even worse!

FlikTheBlue 02-12-2020 01:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Saint Cad (Post 22134923)
I can't believe anyone believed Biden would be #3 and barely viable in IA and last place with no delegates in NH.

I know there was some trouble with the vote counting, but didn't Biden end up in 4th place in Iowa? :confused:

Count me in with those who think Biden is toast. Rather than Nevada, however, I think the leap day primary in South Carolina will determine just how badly Uncle Joe is doing. Unless he comes in a strong second or better there he needs to drop out to help avoid an even bigger split in the moderate lane than we already have.

dalej42 02-12-2020 02:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by enalzi (Post 22135017)
Didn't they get rid of the whole "trying to get other voters to join you" thing in Iowa this year, which was part of the confusion?

Also, speaking of Iowa, Nevada was going to use the same app that caused all the problems but now aren't. But changing plans with only a few weeks to go might just cause a whole nother batch of problems.

Well, the NV caucus is a Saturday afternoon so it’s not the same as prime time Monday with all the eyes of the nation watching you.

They’ve eliminated the multiple rounds so you can’t constantly try to make a candidate viable. You either have to go with a viable candidate or go home.

God, I hate caucuses

dalej42 02-12-2020 02:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by FlikTheBlue (Post 22135127)
I know there was some trouble with the vote counting, but didn't Biden end up in 4th place in Iowa? :confused:

Count me in with those who think Biden is toast. Rather than Nevada, however, I think the leap day primary in South Carolina will determine just how badly Uncle Joe is doing. Unless he comes in a strong second or better there he needs to drop out to help avoid an even bigger split in the moderate lane than we already have.

And he really can’t. I can’t see him dropping out the night South Carolina votes come in. Super Tuesday is 2 days away then and early voting has been going on. Also, pretty much all the resources have been spent. It’s really too bad SC didn’t move up the primary to Tuesday.

FlikTheBlue 02-12-2020 02:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dalej42 (Post 22135152)
And he really can’t. I can’t see him dropping out the night South Carolina votes come in. Super Tuesday is 2 days away then and early voting has been going on. Also, pretty much all the resources have been spent. It’s really too bad SC didn’t move up the primary to Tuesday.

If this is the case, then it will depend on Nevada. If he finishes fourth or worse I hope he throws in the towel. For the good of the party and to have the best chance of beating Trump, the weakest candidates need to throw in the towel, the sooner the better.

thelurkinghorror 02-12-2020 03:19 PM

They're doing early voting this year. The main early vote day is Tuesday, in that time you can provide a ranked list of your candidates and theoretically leave, without doing much caucus stuff. The 2016 R caucus was similar but lines were long, so "theoretically" should be emphasized.

I don't know what to expect as Las Vegas politics are a world away, but I'm not counting Biden out completely.

Snowboarder Bo 02-12-2020 04:09 PM

A friend attended the 2016 Democratic caucus here in Las Vegas and he said it was shitshow from start to finish. After the Iowa debacle, I can only hope that my fellow Nevadans have gotten their shit together. Got it all together. And put it in a backpack. All their shit. So it's together.

enalzi 02-12-2020 05:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Snowboarder Bo (Post 22135388)
After the Iowa debacle, I can only hope that my fellow Nevadans have gotten their shit together.

Part of me hopes they didn't so everyone switches to primaries next time.

thelurkinghorror 02-12-2020 05:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by enalzi (Post 22135482)
Part of me hopes they didn't so everyone switches to primaries next time.

We've only had them since 2008, it was part of Harry Reid's plan to get in voting early, and then the Republican party followed.

DrDeth 02-12-2020 06:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by That Don Guy (Post 22135111)
SD (South Dakota), or SC (South Carolina)? You have said SD twice.


SC.:smack:

Ludovic 02-12-2020 07:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by That Don Guy (Post 22135111)
SD (South Dakota), or SC (South Carolina)? You have said SD twice.

I like SD.

JKellyMap 02-12-2020 08:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ludovic (Post 22135745)
I like SD.

Let’s keep the rape jokes out of this thread, shall we. ;)

Paul in Qatar 02-12-2020 09:55 PM

New Hampshire was interesting, so was Iowa. North Carolina will be important (especially to Biden). I cannot imagine a less important event than the Nevada caucus.

Snowboarder Bo 02-12-2020 09:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by enalzi (Post 22135482)
Part of me hopes they didn't so everyone switches to primaries next time.

Oh, almost everyone I've ever spoken with who's participated in a caucus thinks they should switch to primaries. Yet somehow they persist.

thelurkinghorror 02-12-2020 10:54 PM

More Harry Reid sounding off: "Harry Reid Says It's Time to Kill Off the Iowa Caucus".

The caucus is not representative of NV let alone the country.

dalej42 02-12-2020 11:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Snowboarder Bo (Post 22135933)
Oh, almost everyone I've ever spoken with who's participated in a caucus thinks they should switch to primaries. Yet somehow they persist.

It often favors the activist wing of the party who also happen to often be heavily involved party offices. Not just for the Dems, the Ron Paul people took over a few state parties for the Republicans and before that some of the evangelicals.

Saint Cad 02-13-2020 01:00 PM

Sounds like there's now concern that the software shadow made will not be able to integrate the early voting with the caucus results. They're making it out like another Iowa if not worse.

Lord Feldon 02-13-2020 11:52 PM

The simplicity and planning of Iowa, but held in venues such as liquor stores and casinos. Sounds like it's going to be great. (Maybe it was the Republican caucus in 2016 that had caucus sites in liquor stores, since their caucuses are simpler and don't take up as much space, but I definitely remember seeing people lined up between the rows of bottles.)

Snowboarder Bo 02-15-2020 06:39 PM

Early voting in the Nevada caucus has begun.

Superdude 02-15-2020 11:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lord Feldon (Post 22138077)
The simplicity and planning of Iowa, but held in venues such as liquor stores and casinos. Sounds like it's going to be great. (Maybe it was the Republican caucus in 2016 that had caucus sites in liquor stores, since their caucuses are simpler and don't take up as much space, but I definitely remember seeing people lined up between the rows of bottles.)

Booze also explains a not-unsubstantial portion of the Trump election win.

Heffalump and Roo 02-16-2020 07:36 PM

‘A complete disaster’: Fears grow over potential Nevada caucus malfunction

Volunteers complain of poor training for a vote-reporting system that was adopted on the fly.
from Politico

Quote:

Anxiety is rising over the possibility of another tech-induced meltdown at the Nevada Democratic caucuses on Saturday.

In interviews, three caucus volunteers described serious concerns about rushed preparations for the Feb. 22 election, including insufficient training for a newly-adopted electronic vote-tally system and confusing instructions on how to administer the caucuses. There are also unanswered questions about the security of Internet connections at some 2,000 precinct sites that will transmit results to a central “war room” set up by the Nevada Democratic Party.
. . .
The debacle in Iowa cost one state party chairman his job and threatened the standing of the national party chairman, while casting doubts about whether the results from party-run caucuses can be trusted.

Nevada Democratic officials insist they have everything under control. But a repeat of Iowa — or any kind of breakdown — would be disastrous.
. . .
“There were old ladies looking at me like, ‘Oh, we’re going to have iPads,’” the volunteer told POLITICO.

After sitting through the two-hour training session, the person predicted the caucus would be a “complete disaster.”
This is not sounding good. Hopefully, things turn out better than predicted here.

ITR champion 02-17-2020 02:08 PM

We have a new poll and the leader is ...





... Steyer.

dalej42 02-17-2020 02:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ITR champion (Post 22144024)
We have a new poll and the leader is ...





... Steyer.

I never whine about rigged polls, but this one is such an outlier. Nevada is impossible to poll anyway.

Snowboarder Bo 02-17-2020 02:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ITR champion (Post 22144024)
We have a new poll and the leader is ...





... Steyer.

Quote:

Originally Posted by dalej42 (Post 22144044)
I never whine about rigged polls, but this one is such an outlier. Nevada is impossible to poll anyway.

Who the fuck is Point Blank Political and why should I give them any credence?

Lantern 02-17-2020 02:24 PM

There has been so much focus on Bloomberg that the other billionaire has flown under the radar. Isn't he also doing well in South Carolina? He obviously can't win the whole thing but he could muck up the results.

I wonder if the next time round it will be billionaires only in the primaries... Maybe Oprah versus Cuban?

RTFirefly 02-17-2020 03:36 PM

This poll's not on 538 (at the moment, at least), but a different poll is:

WPA Intelligence, rated B/C by 538, 413 LV, in the field Feb. 11-13:

Sanders 25
Biden 18
Warren 13
Steyer 11
Buttigieg 10
Klobuchar 10
Gabbard 0

No significant difference among the Warren/Steyer/Pete/Amy group.

RTFirefly 02-17-2020 07:21 PM

OK, the Point Blank Political poll is up on 538. They're unrated. 2/13-15, 256 LV.

A third Nevada poll from the past week is up at 538 (man, this is a flood of polling by Nevada standards), this one from B/C-rated Data for Progress (2/12-15, 766 LV):

Sanders 35
Warren 16
Buttigieg 15
Biden 14
Steyer 10
Klobuchar 9
Gabbard 2

enalzi 02-18-2020 10:56 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Snowboarder Bo (Post 22144048)
Who the fuck is Point Blank Political and why should I give them any credence?

It says right in their title: "Among The Top Political Consulting Firms"

TOP. MEN.

QuickSilver 02-18-2020 11:15 AM

What is the point of Nevada, Iowa and NH anyway? Huge investments in ground games. Grass roots support. Debate after townhall. Night show appearances. But did anybody get any sticky results? No. And Bloomberg drops in and fucks up all the poll standings for everyone. Fuck it. Let's see what happens on Super Tuesday. I'll be watching Netflix until then.

Ann Hedonia 02-18-2020 11:34 AM

Well, Bernie has a lot of support from the top.

https://mobile.twitter.com/realDonal...67823595012096

Who said bipartisanship is dead?

https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/03/opini...lon/index.html

QuickSilver 02-18-2020 11:51 AM

You know, if Trump fires Pence, makes Sander VP, and puts him in charge of replacing ObamaCare, the entire country will unite as MAGA-Bros.

Snowboarder Bo 02-18-2020 11:52 AM

This will likely impact the caucus: Bloomberg makes debate stage, facing Dem rivals for 1st time
Quote:

Billionaire Mike Bloomberg has qualified for the upcoming Democratic presidential debate, marking the first time he’ll stand alongside the rivals he has so far avoided by bypassing the early voting states and using his personal fortune to define himself through television ads.

Full Coverage: Election 2020
A new NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll published Tuesday shows Bloomberg with 19% support nationally in the Democratic nominating contest.

The former New York City mayor, who launched his presidential campaign in November, will appear in Wednesday’s debate in Las Vegas alongside former Vice President Joe Biden, Sens. Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren and Amy Klobuchar and former South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg. Fellow billionaire and philanthropist Tom Steyer is still hoping to qualify.

Ann Hedonia 02-18-2020 12:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by QuickSilver (Post 22145595)
What is the point of Nevada, Iowa and NH anyway? Huge investments in ground games. Grass roots support. Debate after townhall. Night show appearances. But did anybody get any sticky results? No. And Bloomberg drops in and fucks up all the poll standings for everyone. Fuck it. Let's see what happens on Super Tuesday. I'll be watching Netflix until then.

I agree. I’m especially done with these caucuses. Because I think they’ve always been incredibly loose and inaccurate, nothing more than a rough head count. But no one every questioned the results. Until the first time someone tried to apply some metrics that included a way to test the results. And it all fell apart because it had never worked.

I expect Nevada to be a similar clusterfuck, if not worse.

Saint Cad 02-19-2020 11:31 AM

If the latest polls from 538 are to believed it looks like a distinct possibility that Sanders will be the only one above the 15% viability threshold. Unless someone has a concentrated pocket of support in a district Sanders may walk away with all of the delegate or Biden and Warren may get one or two.

dalej42 02-19-2020 11:33 AM

At this point I don’t know what to believe. The only thing that will probably be good in NV is that there will likely be a lot of areas with only one or two viable candidates, so that should help with the counting. Two non viables can’t make a viable.

Snowboarder Bo 02-19-2020 11:36 AM

I think Biden will not get as much support as hoped or projected. I think Buttigieg will get more support than is expected or projected.


All times are GMT -5. The time now is 07:59 AM.

Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.7
Copyright ©2000 - 2020, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.

Send questions for Cecil Adams to: cecil@straightdope.com

Send comments about this website to: webmaster@straightdope.com

Terms of Use / Privacy Policy

Advertise on the Straight Dope!
(Your direct line to thousands of the smartest, hippest people on the planet, plus a few total dipsticks.)

Copyright © 2019 STM Reader, LLC.