Straight Dope Message Board

Straight Dope Message Board (https://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/index.php)
-   Politics & Elections (https://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/forumdisplay.php?f=34)
-   -   Biden's Running Mate Prediction Thread (https://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=891656)

Defensive Indifference 03-14-2020 10:59 AM

Biden's Running Mate Prediction Thread
 
We don't have one of these yet, do we?

It looks like Biden is pulling away from Sanders. Nate Silver recently tweeted something like "If you think my tone has changed, it has. Biden is going to be the nominee." So, who will he pick as his running mate?

Exactly zero of my political predictions have been correct since 2015, so that means I'm due, right? OK, here goes.

Biden will pick someone youngish, more progressive than himself, and either not white or not male. While Warren is in great health and very energetic, she's not exactly a spring chicken herself. Also she shouldn't have to be anyone's second fiddle. She should get a prominent Cabinet position. AG?

Kamala Harris is 55. Her past as a prosecutor might be an asset if Biden goes the route of "I will make them pay for what they have done!", but I think progressives are leery of her for her past of incarcerating people.

Adam Schiff has the anti-Trump goods, but it's hard to go from the House to the White House, and he's also a white dude.

My dark horse candidate is Kate Brown, Governor of Oregon. I don't know a lot about her but she seems pretty progressive, she hits some demographic marks, and she won't cost the Democrats a seat in the Senate.

So, my prediction is: I have no fucking idea. Kate Brown, just so if it's her I can come back here and do a victory lap.

The Other Waldo Pepper 03-14-2020 11:03 AM

If I were in his shoes, Iíd probably pick Klobuchar.

Chronos 03-14-2020 11:16 AM

I'd like to see Tammy Duckworth, who would tick a lot of the boxes you mention. But the main reason I'd like to see her is that we need a fighter on the ticket, someone tenacious enough to do what'll need to be done, and I think she's got what it takes for that. Being a veteran who's unquestionably sacrificed for her country helps, too.

Though I've no idea who he actually will pick.

What Exit? 03-14-2020 11:27 AM

I can't predict but short list:
Stacey Abrams from Georgia might help take Georgia, would probably help with women. she's under 50. Biden doesn't really need the help with African Americans.

Elizabeth Warren but she is 70 and didn't even win her own state (a very blue one at that)

Ask Warren & Sanders to provide a short list of acceptable progressive under the age of 70 if they agree to campaign hard for the Biden/younger Progressive ticket.

Any very popular politician from a largish Purple state is a fairly good choice. If someone like that exists in Florida, maybe the best choice.

E-DUB 03-14-2020 11:35 AM

I'm not predicting either, but I'm kind of tired of hearing about Stacey Abrams. You want to go with a woman of color, fine. But pick one from a swing state, who's actually won an election (yes, yes, I know). Reps. Brenda Lawrence of MI and Val Demmings of FL come to mind.

dalej42 03-14-2020 12:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by E-DUB (Post 22189598)
I'm not predicting either, but I'm kind of tired of hearing about Stacey Abrams. You want to go with a woman of color, fine. But pick one from a swing state, who's actually won an election (yes, yes, I know). Reps. Brenda Lawrence of MI and Val Demmings of FL come to mind.

Iím also over the Abrams hype. Yes, there was a lot of monkey business in that GA race, but politics ainít beanbags. There were two senate races in Georgia and she played footsie with both while deciding not to run. Then she was playing coy with Bloomberg suggesting a deal for VP.

If she wants to stay behind the scenes and work on voter suppression, great. But, especially after the Gillum incident, I think Biden should stick with someone whoís won a statewide race. I think Kamala would be fine, yes some of the Bernie Bros will whine about Kamala is a cop but I donít think theyíre nearly as powerful as they are loud and tend to already be concentrated in deep blue area

DrDeth 03-14-2020 03:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by What Exit? (Post 22189589)
I can't predict but short list:
Stacey Abrams from Georgia might help take Georgia, would probably help with women. she's under 50. Biden doesn't really need the help with African Americans.

...

That's the current rumor going around, and my bet.

RioRico 03-14-2020 03:27 PM

Joe's dilemma: picking someone voters will accept as his successor when he croaks in a few months.

While I don't really want established (D) senators ripped lured from the legislative to the executive, Kamala Harris wouldn't be replaced by an (R). She's non-male and non-white and non-ancient enough to balance Joltin' Joe, but she's also from Ecotopia and so will alienate many... who might not have voted for Biden anyway.

Kamala seems to own a bit of national name recognition. Is it mostly positive, negative, or indifferent?

Defensive Indifference 03-14-2020 03:39 PM

I don't know much at all about Abrams. On paper she looks good, and she seems to have gotten jammed in her run for Florida governor, but her resume in elected office is kind of thin. The highest office she's held is in the GA State House. That seems like a liability if Biden wants to reassure people the country will be in capable hands when he goes face down in his Cheerios one morning.

Happy Lendervedder 03-14-2020 04:04 PM

I like Liz Warren, Stacey Abrams or Brenda Lawrence.

ISiddiqui 03-14-2020 04:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by E-DUB (Post 22189598)
I'm not predicting either, but I'm kind of tired of hearing about Stacey Abrams. You want to go with a woman of color, fine. But pick one from a swing state, who's actually won an election (yes, yes, I know). Reps. Brenda Lawrence of MI and Val Demmings of FL come to mind.

I get it, but living in Georgia, one of the reasons I see the Abrams hype is that she is one of the most impressive speakers I've ever seen. Her command of the facts and her ability to explain things is far beyond anyone running for President (yes, she makes Buttigieg look like an average guy IMO)

Sent from my Pixel 4 XL using Tapatalk

CarnalK 03-14-2020 04:10 PM

Is Abrams incredibly charismatic or something? Why is she on the short list exactly?

iiandyiiii 03-14-2020 04:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CarnalK (Post 22190016)
Is Abrams incredibly charismatic or something? Why is she on the short list exactly?

She strikes me as brilliant, passionate, and authentic, as far as politicians go, IMO.

DrDeth 03-14-2020 04:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CarnalK (Post 22190016)
Is Abrams incredibly charismatic or something? Why is she on the short list exactly?


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stacey_Abrams

https://www.rollingstone.com/politic...abrams-965570/

Will it be Stacey Abrams?

On February 5th, 2019, Stacey Abrams ó whom Rolling Stone recently profiled ó gave the official Democratic response to President Trumpís State of the Union address to Congress. Within minutes of her finishing, Bidenís campaign tweeted that Abrams, who had lost her campaign for Georgia governor in 2018 by the narrowest of margins and amid accusations of fraud and voter suppression by her Republican opponent, had achieved ďin a matter of minutes something Donald Trump failed to do in over an hour ó to embrace and give voice to the spirit and core values that make America great.Ē

CarnalK 03-14-2020 04:22 PM

Wow, response to the state of the union. That's a fast track for UN Ambassador at least.

Defensive Indifference 03-14-2020 04:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Defensive Indifference (Post 22189969)
...her run for Florida governor...

Georgia, of course, not Florida. :smack:

BobLibDem 03-14-2020 04:36 PM

It doesn't so much matter who Biden is running with, since Donald's running mate is the corona virus.

I'll vote for Joe no matter who he runs with. I'd prefer Castro or Harris, but I'd be fin with Klobuchar or Warren. No Bernie, please.

Unreconstructed Man 03-14-2020 04:49 PM

Why not Buttigieg?

CarnalK 03-14-2020 04:54 PM

Because Buttigieg pisses off the harder lefties. He will find a job but VP ain't it.

Also, he's even more ridiculously underexperienced for the job.

Loach 03-14-2020 05:05 PM

A few weeks ago I would have said Klobuchar with little hesitation. Now Iím about 50/50 with Duckworth. Iím wondering if there will be some challenge to her eligibility. I think she is eligible but Iíve heard grumblings about a challenge. It might muddy up the water a bit.

All a guess of course. I donít know when Iíve guessed right if ever.

DSeid 03-14-2020 05:24 PM

I remain rooting for Tammy Baldwin, Senator of Wisconsin.

A solid progressive in the pragmatist mode. An actual resume on rural issues and winning rural voters. (Inclusive of flipping "17 of the rural counties that had voted for Trump.") Female. Young enough (58). And Wisconsin is a hang-in-the-balance state that might be on knife's edge. While the home state advantage of a VP is not huge it is real.
Quote:

On average since 1920, he has produced a net gain of only about two percentage points for the top of the ticket in his home state.

As usual, there are several qualifications and limitations to this analysis. First, the gain produced by the vice presidential candidate has been slightly larger in recent years ó about four points on average rather than two in elections since 1984. That could just be a statistical fluke, although it could also represent the fact that vice presidential nominees have taken on a higher profile than they once did.

Second, it may be that some types of vice presidential nominees produce more of an effect than others. Current governors or senators have produced a slightly larger gain on average (about 3 rather than 1.5) than those who were no longer in office, or who were U.S. representatives and therefore represented a Congressional district rather than the whole state.
2 to 4 points in a key state like Wisconsin could be the election one way or the other.

Lance Turbo 03-14-2020 05:41 PM

Here's the top ten Dem VP nominees according to PredictIt based on last traded price.

Code:

1        Kamala Harris                $0.28
2        Amy Klobuchar                $0.21
3        Stacey Abrams                $0.15
4        Elizabeth Warren        $0.08
5        Hillary Clinton                $0.05
6        Tammy Duckworth                $0.04
7        C. Cortez Masto                $0.04
8        Michelle Obama                $0.04
9        Pete Buttigieg                $0.03
10        Val Demings                $0.03

Most have been mentioned in this thread. Some are ridiculous.

China Guy 03-14-2020 05:57 PM

Get the military on board with a seasoned female politician with at least one star on her shoulder. Bonus points if she also happens to be a person of color.

Military brass at least hates Trump for betraying allies, messing with the chain of command, pardoning war criminals, ad naseum. Get a general on board.

Duckworth ticks a lot of boxes but there is a pretty deep bench of general level women out there with even more experience. Here's a list for the Army: https://www.army.mil/women/profiles/

There are more if you count other branches. By definition, one is a skilled politician if made it to the ranks of general (or equivalent).

The rest of the women upthread are all talented and should be taking cabinet positions to fill out the backfield for 2024.

The Stainless Steel Rat 03-14-2020 06:05 PM

Whatever happened to Corey Booker? He was the fair-headed child a while ago, touted as a potential presidential candidate and with a solid record (Mayor of Newark, Senator) of winning elections...and now, by Lance Turbo's message above, not even in the top ten.

Yeah, he's from a solid Blue state and is a male, but a strong (and young/vibrant) VP candidate is going to make a difference with three ancient guys in the other slots.


Although I must admit, I'd pay real money to see Pence having to be on a debate stage with Tammy Duckworth...

Lamoral 03-14-2020 06:59 PM

I think Booker would be a good choice. I really REALLY do not want another older white person.

CarnalK 03-14-2020 07:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lance Turbo (Post 22190160)
Here's the top ten Dem VP nominees according to PredictIt based on last traded price.

Code:

1        Kamala Harris                $0.28
2        Amy Klobuchar                $0.21
3        Stacey Abrams                $0.15
4        Elizabeth Warren        $0.08
5        Hillary Clinton                $0.05
6        Tammy Duckworth                $0.04
7        C. Cortez Masto                $0.04
8        Michelle Obama                $0.04
9        Pete Buttigieg                $0.03
10        Val Demings                $0.03

Most have been mentioned in this thread. Some are ridiculous.

No, no, no my good sir. You slander the betting markets. If some of those odds are ridiculous you shouldn't be telling us. You should be clocking dollars if it's "ridiculous" that Michelle might get it.

Lance Turbo 03-14-2020 07:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CarnalK (Post 22190293)
No, no, no my good sir. You slander the betting markets. If some of those odds are ridiculous you shouldn't be telling us. You should be clocking dollars if it's "ridiculous" that Michelle might get it.

Your hilariously misinformed commentary on prediction markets is a delight as always.

CarnalK 03-14-2020 08:01 PM

Yer welcome.

Blank Slate 03-14-2020 08:41 PM

Deval Patrick.

JKellyMap 03-14-2020 09:13 PM

DSeid, I love Tammy Baldwin — good call. Did you mention that she’s openly gay? Another plus, in my book.

Abrams would be good, too.

Defensive Indifference 03-14-2020 09:50 PM

I'm not overly familiar with Baldwin, but after a quick scan of her Wiki page, she looks pretty interesting. She opposed the Iraq war, supported ACORN, supports single payer, and generally seems like someone progressives could get behind. Also, being a gay woman doesn't hurt. Wisconsin replaces Senators by special election, though, so the Democrats would have to fight for her seat if she became VP. As a pessimistic sort, I'd prefer the VP choice not put a Senate seat in play.

She's been in Congress since 1999. Any major scandals?

Loach 03-14-2020 10:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Stainless Steel Rat (Post 22190208)
Whatever happened to Corey Booker? He was the fair-headed child a while ago, touted as a potential presidential candidate and with a solid record (Mayor of Newark, Senator) of winning elections...and now, by Lance Turbo's message above, not even in the top ten.

Yeah, he's from a solid Blue state and is a male, but a strong (and young/vibrant) VP candidate is going to make a difference with three ancient guys in the other slots.


Although I must admit, I'd pay real money to see Pence having to be on a debate stage with Tammy Duckworth...


He would be my choice. He disappointed me by playing against his strengths in the campaign. I think someone gave him bad advice and told him to act tougher. His strength is in his natural charm and charisma. In non-political situations Iíve seen him captivate a crowd with no notes and no TelePrompTer.


Being from a blue state might be an advantage. A democrat would be appointed to take his place by a democratic governor.

dalej42 03-14-2020 10:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Loach (Post 22190589)
He would be my choice. He disappointed me by playing against his strengths in the campaign. I think someone gave him bad advice and told him to act tougher. His strength is in his natural charm and charisma. In non-political situations Iíve seen him captivate a crowd with no notes and no TelePrompTer.


Being from a blue state might be an advantage. A democrat would be appointed to take his place by a democratic governor.

Booker ran a poor campaign, starting with I am Spartacus during the Kavanaugh hearings. He should have run as Pete Buttigieg but a Senator. And never mention being Vegan.

JKellyMap 03-15-2020 06:11 AM

Defensive Indifference, good point about the risk of Baldwin's Senate seat going to a Republican.
I'm leaning toward Abrams, then. Booker or Castro could work. What about Claire McCaskill?

All of these are pretty good demo- and geographically, and are good counterweights to Biden's main stylistic liability: his inarticulateness (getting a bit worse with age). Fortunately, this quality of Joe's is intertwined with the perceived folksy, tell-it-like-it-is quality that will gain him a few thousand crucial votes in places like Michigan -- BUT we also need someone with the neurotypical, Obama-style articulateness.

JohnT 03-15-2020 07:06 AM

Kamala Harris is my prediction. She checks a lot of boxes for him.

Dark horse: Julian Castro. He may be the only male pick which will excite people of color.

Defensive Indifference 03-15-2020 10:43 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JKellyMap (Post 22190880)
Defensive Indifference, good point about the risk of Baldwin's Senate seat going to a Republican.
I'm leaning toward Abrams, then. Booker or Castro could work. What about Claire McCaskill?

All of these are pretty good demo- and geographically, and are good counterweights to Biden's main stylistic liability: his inarticulateness (getting a bit worse with age). Fortunately, this quality of Joe's is intertwined with the perceived folksy, tell-it-like-it-is quality that will gain him a few thousand crucial votes in places like Michigan -- BUT we also need someone with the neurotypical, Obama-style articulateness.

I like McCaskill OK. She's boring, competent, and pretty centrist. Kinda meh. She also managed to lose a Senate race to Josh Fucking Hawley, so I wouldn't count on her to deliver many votes in MO. She's also 66, not too old objectively, but maybe not young enough to balance Biden. I mean, I think she'd be fine as VP. I just don't see her as being a great pick.

Lance Turbo 03-15-2020 11:41 AM

How about Illinois Lieutenant Governor Juliana Stratton?

septimus 03-15-2020 11:58 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lance Turbo (Post 22190160)
Here's the top ten Dem VP nominees according to PredictIt based on last traded price.

Code:

1        Kamala Harris                $0.28
2        Amy Klobuchar                $0.21
3        Stacey Abrams                $0.15
4        Elizabeth Warren        $0.08
5        Hillary Clinton                $0.05
6        Tammy Duckworth        $0.04
7        C. Cortez Masto                $0.04
8        Michelle Obama                $0.04
9        Pete Buttigieg                $0.03
10        Val Demings                $0.03
[my emphasis - sgs7]

Most have been mentioned in this thread. Some are ridiculous.

Nine out of 10 are women, five of them "of color." (Six if you count the white-skinned Cortez Masto as "of color.")

Tammy Duckworth is smart, well-spoken, and a genuine hero. Here she reads a letter she wrote to her younger self. But Tammy was not born in the U.S.A. Can we expect the GOP Whine Machine to turn that into a major issue?

CarnalK 03-15-2020 12:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by septimus (Post 22191207)
Tammy Duckworth is smart, well-spoken, and a genuine hero. Here she reads a letter she wrote to her younger self. But Tammy was not born in the U.S.A. Can we expect the GOP Whine Machine to turn that into a major issue?

I see her wikipedia page conspicuously notes her Army veteran father can trace his roots to the American revolution.

Lance Turbo 03-15-2020 12:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by septimus (Post 22191207)
Can we expect the GOP Whine Machine to turn that into a major issue?

Of course we can. They are horrible people who both attack her weaknesses, and try to twist her strengths into weaknesses and then attack those.

They paint the fact that she left parts of her body on the battlefield in Iraq as sympathy for Isis.

"Tammy Duckworth has a sad record of not standing up for our veterans." - National Republican Senate Committee Tweet from March 2016.

That is an exceedingly shitty thing to say about someone who lost her legs when she was hit by a rocket propelled grenade while piloting a Blackhawk in Iraq.

CarnalK 03-15-2020 12:40 PM

Oliver North won the Bronze and Silver star plus two Purple Hearts. Doubt you think that gets him off the hook for criticism.

Lance Turbo 03-15-2020 12:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CarnalK (Post 22191271)
Oliver North won the Bronze and Silver star plus two Purple Hearts. Doubt you think that gets him off the hook for criticism.

I don't think having a Purple Heart gets you off the hook from criticism.

I think it's very shitty to accuse a person who has lost their legs in service to this country of refusing to stand up. That specific word choice is problematic. Criticize her all you want, but try to avoid double entendres about what she does with her legs.

CarnalK 03-15-2020 12:59 PM

Well, I didn't even register that. Ok.

Defensive Indifference 03-15-2020 01:35 PM

Did Democratic politicians question Oliver North's patriotism or combat record, or did they mainly criticize him for breaking the law?

Tammy Duckworth's service means nothing to Republicans. Remember how they compared triple amputee Max Cleland to a terrorist? The guy behind that ad, Rick Wilson, is now a prominent "Never Trumper". Just a reminder that even "good Republicans" are still shit people.

dalej42 03-15-2020 02:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lance Turbo (Post 22191189)
How about Illinois Lieutenant Governor Juliana Stratton?

I barely know who she is, I live in Illinois and I think everyone agrees that Iím pretty knowledgeable about politics.

erysichthon 03-15-2020 02:09 PM

My prediction is Kamala Harris, but I admit the case for Tammy Baldwin is pretty compelling.

Amy Klobuchar would be a solid choice. I think Biden needs someone with more charisma, though.

Tammy Duckworth is awesome, and I would love to see her cut Pence to ribbons in a debate. However, the GOP would definitely make an issue of her birthplace, and they'd probably try to swiftboat her, too. I can already hear Trump saying, "I like people who weren't injured."

It won't be Stacey Abrams; her resume is thinner than tissue paper. I remember, in 2008, people complaining that Obama was too inexperienced because he hadn't yet served a full term in the Senate. Abrams simply blows off running for Senate and drops coy hints about the VP job. No. Just no.

Bijou Drains 03-15-2020 02:20 PM

It will be someone who is in the Senate , House or is/was a governor. Slight chance of big city mayor but not Bloomberg. If I had to bet I would pick Klobuchar with Harris second.

dalej42 03-15-2020 02:30 PM

One thing to keep in mind is that nothing about Biden screams risk taker. Now, the same could be said about John McCain and of course he flubbed it badly.

There’s plenty of what ifs about 2016, but I really doubt Tim Kaine is in the top 1000 of the reasons Hillary lost.

So, yes, it’ll be a Senator or a governor, it might even be another white guy.

What Exit? 03-15-2020 02:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dalej42 (Post 22191447)
...Thereís plenty of what ifs about 2016, but I really doubt Tim Kaine is in the top 1000 of the reasons Hillary lost. ...

He didn't help, that much is pretty obvious. It was another poor choice by HRC.

FlikTheBlue 03-15-2020 02:39 PM

I'm sticking with my prediction of Amy Klobuchar. I'm still of the opinion that he promised her the position when she dropped out after the South Carolina primary.


All times are GMT -5. The time now is 09:44 PM.

Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.7
Copyright ©2000 - 2020, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.

Send questions for Cecil Adams to: cecil@straightdope.com

Send comments about this website to: webmaster@straightdope.com

Terms of Use / Privacy Policy

Advertise on the Straight Dope!
(Your direct line to thousands of the smartest, hippest people on the planet, plus a few total dipsticks.)

Copyright © 2019 STM Reader, LLC.