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-   -   SDMB NFL Pick 'em and Survival Leagues 2019 (https://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=881356)

SenorBeef 09-01-2019 04:24 PM

SDMB NFL Pick 'em and Survival Leagues 2019
 
So I'm starting this thread way late because it just completely slipped my mind to start these leagues.

Last year's thread

Everyone is invited to play - it's not like fantasy football where you have head to head matchups every week, everyone plays against the whole league, so if you end up dropping out mid-season it's not a big deal. So try anything you want.

Pick 'em:
In NFL Pick 'em leagues, each player predicts the outcome of every NFL game. There are three different types, and we run all three. You can join any or all of them.

Straight up: You simply pick the winner of each game, and get a point if correct.

Spread: A spread is determined for a game (like with sports betting), where one team has a certain amount of points given to them, and you have to pick the game with that adjustment taken into account.

Confidence: The most complex one, but in my view also the most fun. There are no spreads, so you pick the winner straight up. But you get a confidence value you can assign to every game, 1 through the number of games being played that weekend, and can only use each number once. So if there are 16 games that weekend, you'll assign the confidence number 16 to the game where the outcome seems most clear to you, 15 for the next one, all the way down to 1 for the one you're least sure of. If you pick correctly, the confidence value of your pick is added to your weekly score. If you only play one league, I suggest the confidence league.

Survival:
Each player picks one team that has to win each week. If your picked team fails to win, you get a strike. You can only use each team once. Three strikes and you're out.

These leagues can hold up to 50 players each, so we're not really at risk for filling up, and you're competing against the whole league, not one other team per week like fantasy football, so it's not a big deal if you end up dropping out. I'd like for everyone to play all the way through the season, but it won't hurt anyone if you don't, so feel free to sign up if you're only a little interested. The more the merrier.

Pick 'em sign up

Password for all leagues is cecil. League numbers are:

Pick em: 38089
Spread Pick em: 38092
Confidence Pick 'em: 38095

And this link for the survival league.

SenorBeef 09-04-2019 04:02 PM

Reminder to pick tomorrow's game. You don't have to do the whole week before the first game - you can do every game up until 5 minutes before it starts.

borschevsky 09-04-2019 04:17 PM

Singed up for them all, again. One of these years I'll actually have time to watch lots of the games and form my own opinions. :)

In case anyone's interested, 538 runs an interesting predictions contest where you assign a probability to each game. A bit of a different twist to a pick 'em contest.

SenorBeef 09-05-2019 05:36 AM

That is a very cool idea. I'm definitely going to do it. There are no groups or anything so we can't sign up together, but if anyone wants to try the 538 probability curve prediction thing we can compare scores.

SenorBeef 09-07-2019 06:10 PM

Alright, get your picks in for tomorrow. I believe you can continue to join the groups throughout the year, so if you came to the thread late but still want to play, hop in.

SenorBeef 09-07-2019 06:23 PM

Unfortunately because of how late I started the thread, I think we don't have some people we normally do. I tried to piece back together who we were missing and sent out some PMs, but as far as I can tell there's no way to see a user list of previous years like there is with fantasy football, so I wasn't able to get a list to see who was missing. Participation is fine, anyway - 15 in survival, 12 12 and 11 in the pick em leagues. I'll post in other FF/nfl threads to remind people who might've missed this.

mhendo 09-08-2019 09:22 AM

I'm in. All three leagues. My confidence level is low. :)

dalej42 09-08-2019 10:38 AM

Joined all, I’ll try to remember to start a college football pickem next year and a bowl game pickem in December.

dalej42 09-11-2019 11:01 AM

Quick question on survival: can I make a pick now and change it later or does it get locked in immediately? This is going to be a very busy weekend for me and trying to get all my fantasy and pickem stuff done early.

SenorBeef 09-11-2019 12:27 PM

You can change it.

SenorBeef 09-14-2019 04:38 PM

I'm so tempted to pick Cleveland in survival, even after they shit the bed at home and are playing on the road Monday night. Not sure if I'll be able to follow through with it. May end up going with a safe pick.

SenorBeef 09-22-2019 04:39 AM

The New England vs NYJ game has 100% of the pick distribution of New England. 99% happens frequently, but I don't think I've seen 100% before.

How are you guys doing in the 538 contest? I'm in the 88th percentile.

SenorBeef 09-22-2019 12:24 PM

Sigh. Yahoo didn't save my pick in survival for some reason. I picked Dallas. But not only did it not pick me saving Dallas, but it won't even let me pick from the remaining games to get in a pick this week. I can't pick anything. So I get a strike from not having an entry recorded.

borschevsky 09-23-2019 10:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SenorBeef (Post 21874870)
How are you guys doing in the 538 contest? I'm in the 88th percentile.

After week 3 Iím at 189.1 points, which it says puts me ahead of 77% of players.

SenorBeef 09-29-2019 06:16 AM

The pick em league is set to require picks in by game time Sunday (1 eastern) but it's not letting me switch my pick now. I didn't pick the Thursday game. Anyone else find themselves unable to switch picks?

SenorBeef 09-29-2019 10:27 PM

And of course the change I wanted to make was from the Rams to the Chargers. So one week yahoo doesn't save my correct pick, and then the next week they don't let me change my pick for no apparent reason, so I've got 2 strikes strictly because of yahoo.

borschevsky 10-02-2019 10:39 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by borschevsky (Post 21877990)
After week 3 Iím at 189.1 points, which it says puts me ahead of 77% of players.

And after week 4, I'm down to 152.3 points, but now ahead of 82% of players.

SenorBeef 10-02-2019 10:53 AM

This week was brutal. Everyone lost, but I lost 11 points less than the 538 model. I went from 91st percentile to 83rd percentile.

dalej42 10-02-2019 12:19 PM

FYI, the Bears vs Raiders game is in London, but it’s a night game there so it’s the usual 1 pm eastern time start, so it won’t mess things up for fantasy or pick ‘em

borschevsky 10-08-2019 05:46 PM

Up to +171.3, better than 90%. I just want to note this here now, before my inevitable decline. :)

It's probably not really true (I'm sure the math works out), but the 538 scoring really seems to encourage being conservative. 538 has a 90% prediction for NE over the Giants, which scores as +24 for a win and -56 for a loss. If you knock that down to 80%, the win payoff drops 3 points down to +21, but the loss penalty moves 17 points to -39.

borschevsky 10-16-2019 11:05 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 538
You have +194.7 points. Thatís better than 94% of players.

Just gonna keep posting this, and noting my strikeless survival picks, while I still can. I will not be making similar comments about the spread league :).

borschevsky 10-16-2019 04:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SenorBeef (Post 21887721)
The pick em league is set to require picks in by game time Sunday (1 eastern) but it's not letting me switch my pick now. I didn't pick the Thursday game. Anyone else find themselves unable to switch picks?

I hadn't noticed this post before, so I went in and tested it today. At first I couldn't figure out how to switch my survival pick. I was just clicking on another team, and nothing was happening. I finally realized that you have to first click the X next to the big logo for your selected team (above the list of games) to remove your existing pick, and only then it will let you can choose a new one.

Is that maybe where you were getting hung up?

SenorBeef 10-17-2019 04:05 AM

Yeah, that's exactly what it was. I don't think it was like that last year. I thought the site was broken and eventually gave up, leading to my second strike.

I'm really annoyed - my first strike was a case of not saving. I picked Dallas and it didn't save. Then the second time I meant to switch from LAR to LAC - and ran into the issue where I didn't realize clicking the X was necessary, so I guess my fault, but they changed it from previous years and it wasn't super obvious. So I have two strikes where I intended to pick the right team, but was prevented by yahoo dumbness. And I posted about them in this thread before the games, so I'm not BSing about that. Oh well.

borschevsky 10-22-2019 04:27 PM

Yeah, I'm pretty sure last year you just had to click on a new team to change it. I also don't think you had to hit a "save" confirm button after making your choice, so maybe they were having issues with people accidentally changing their choice without realizing it. The interface for making a change now isn't at all intuitive.

And, still climbing the ladder:
Quote:

Originally Posted by 538
You have +287.3 points. Thatís better than 96% of players.

:)

dalej42 10-23-2019 10:08 AM

This is going to be an interesting week as there are so many games on the schedule which seem like a slam dunk. I’ll probably change my confidence ratings ten times before Sunday. And yet, it’s the NFL and there will be a couple of upsets.


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