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-   -   Official SDMB P&E Contest: Iowa and New Hampshire (https://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=887881)

Jonathan Chance 01-03-2020 11:25 AM

Official SDMB P&E Contest: Iowa and New Hampshire
 
Bragging rights are officially up for grabs, people. Bring it.

This contest will require our participants to predict the outcome of the top three in the Democratic Iowa Caucuses and New Hampshire primary.

It's time to set aside your own opinions and see how well you can read the future. It's 31 days until Iowa and 39 until New Hampshire. Do you stick with your heart or do you call up Nate Silver and crunch some numbers? It's up to you.

Scoring:

Each player will be required to list the Top Three in each place like this:

Iowa:
1. Yang (34%)
2. Willliamson
3. Gabbard
New Hampshire
1. Steyer (30%)
2. Bloomberg
3. Yang
Players will also be required to state the percentage of votes/caucus the winner of each vote receives rounded to the nearest percent.

Scoring:
Each player will receive one point per correct call - candidate and place - for a maximum of 6 points. In event more than one player receives the most points we will proceed to the tiebreaker.

Example:
In the above example, a player who guesses Yang/Williamson/Gabbard and Steyer/Bloomberg/Yang would receive six points while someone who guesses Yang/Williamson/Gabbard and Steyer/Yang/Bloomberg would receive four points.
Tiebreaker:
Ties will be broken using the percentage prediction for the top candidate in both contests. Players closest to the actual percentage will win. Players will lose one point in for every point their guess varies from the actual outcome. So if I player guesses Yang will win with 57% of the vote and he finishes with 5% that player will be debited -52 points.

In the unlikely event that we still have a tie following the tiebreaker the first person to make that guess will be our winner.
Entries will be accepted until the day before the Iowa Caucuses. Players may update their guesses as often as they'd like but for purposes of the tiebreaker their most recent guess is the one that controls.

Incomplete entries - those that omit the percentages, for example, or fail to select three candidates from each content - will be considered invalid.

The prize? Bragging rights. The right to know that you bested your peers. Bask in your glory. Bask.

iiandyiiii 01-03-2020 11:36 AM

How about extra points for early predictions that the poster sticks with? Otherwise, it's to my advantage to wait until the last minute, to take into account polling and any withdrawals.

Jonathan Chance 01-03-2020 11:39 AM

Unless someone gets there first, andy. And I bet we come up with some ties.

Timing is a part of the game on this one.

iiandyiiii 01-03-2020 11:41 AM

How about % for each of the top 3, instead of just the winner?

Jonathan Chance 01-03-2020 11:47 AM

I thought about that, but it seems a bit too much like work.

If we find it leads to a three-person tie or something overall we'll rework it for upcoming contests. Super Tuesday will probably be the next one.

Want to help? Come up with a not-too-hard-to-administer Super Tuesday contest and PM me.

iiandyiiii 01-03-2020 11:58 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jonathan Chance (Post 22060706)
I thought about that, but it seems a bit too much like work.

If we find it leads to a three-person tie or something overall we'll rework it for upcoming contests. Super Tuesday will probably be the next one.

Want to help? Come up with a not-too-hard-to-administer Super Tuesday contest and PM me.

PM sent.

As for "too much like work", the %s would only matter for relatively deep tiebreakers -- the order is really what matters. So it shouldn't be additional work unless there's a need for a deep tiebreaker.

That Don Guy 01-03-2020 05:31 PM

How will "percentage" in caucus states, where individual vote counts usually aren't available, be defined?

UltraVires 01-04-2020 12:41 AM

Iowa:

Biden 31%
Buttigieg 26%
Sanders 22%

New Hampshire

Sanders 33%
Biden 28%
Warren 19%

Jonathan Chance 01-04-2020 03:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by That Don Guy (Post 22061413)
How will "percentage" in caucus states, where individual vote counts usually aren't available, be defined?

CNN will have a number. Well use that.

Pleonast 01-04-2020 06:31 PM

Whats P&E?

Jonathan Chance 01-04-2020 07:21 PM

Politics & Elections!

Jeez.

DinoR 01-04-2020 08:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jonathan Chance (Post 22062810)
CNN will have a number. Well use that.

That is still not as clear as you might hope. In previous years Iowa reported state delegate equivalents. That is the estimate share of delegates to the state level convention based on feeding the precinct level delegates actually selected through their estimation of the intervening conventions. The media would report that and sometimes call it the vote;CNN did in 2016. That is just an estimate of the delegates to the state convention that will be selected by the intervening conventions. The media typically tacks on a further estimate of how many delegates for the national convention will be selected by the state convention. That can differ some between media sources due to rounding. As long as we specify CNN and it being the "vote" (actually state delegate equivalents) instead of the national delegates we would have been fine ...in 2016.

Unfortunately it is not 2016. Iowa changed things.

Could multiple candidates 'win' the Democratic caucuses? New rules make it possible.

Iowa will now be reporting three separate numbers for the Democratic caucuses. There will be where caucus goers initially align, where they align after they see who doesn't have enough to break threshold in that first alignment, and the state delegate equivalents. We should probably pick which one of those we want to use. :p

pjacks 01-05-2020 01:18 PM

Iowa:

Sanders 26%
Buttigieg
Biden

New Hampshire:

Sanders 22%
Biden
Warren

Boozahol Squid, P.I. 01-07-2020 09:49 AM

Iowa:
Biden 30%
Buttgieg
Sanders

New Hampshire:
Sanders: 26%
Biden
Warren

Hari Seldon 01-08-2020 01:27 PM

Iowa:
Biden 33%
Sanders
Klobuchar

NH:
Sanders 35%
Warren
Biden

That Don Guy 01-08-2020 02:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DinoR (Post 22063249)
Iowa will now be reporting three separate numbers for the Democratic caucuses. There will be where caucus goers initially align, where they align after they see who doesn't have enough to break threshold in that first alignment, and the state delegate equivalents. We should probably pick which one of those we want to use. :p

And on top of that, there's a good chance that none of those will reflect the final delegate count, as about 2/3 (28 out of 41) of Iowa's delegates will be selected at its four district conventions.

Note that there appear to be a rules change for 2020, at least for Iowa; I thought there was a third alignment, where voters who supported candidates that did not reach the 15% threshhold after the second alignment could then go to candidates that did, but now, anyone aligned with an eliminated candidate has their vote ignored.

Hari Seldon 01-14-2020 01:48 PM

Revised prediction (based in part on an analysis by an Iowan in today's Times)

Iowa:
Warren 33%
Sanders
Klobuchar

NH:
Sanders 35%
Warren
Biden

asahi 01-20-2020 09:53 AM

I will likely update this, as there is almost certainly going to be enough movement in the polls to make a difference. But in case I forget to post a prediction, here goes my Iowa prediction:

Biden 20%
Sanders 19%
Buttigieg 18%
Warren 17%

Any 'movement' will probably be only a percent or two but because these candidates are so close together and could all conceivably win delegates, any poll movement will be significant. My gut feeling is that Sanders and Warren's spat will lead to some shifting between the two of them, which might benefit both Buttigieg and Biden.

As for New Hampshire, I think Bernie will prevail again in a state where he thumped Clinton a few years ago. It'll be closer though:

Sanders 19.5%
Biden 19%
Warren 17%
Buttigieg 13%

I also think New Hampshire will probably be the beginning of the end for Buttigieg. Warren will be badly wounded too if she can't place any higher than 3rd in the first two races.

Pleonast 01-21-2020 09:18 AM

I normally don't follow primaries that closely, so my guess is based on 538 with some wild adjustments for "momentum".

Iowa
1. Biden 24%
2. Warren
3. Buttigieg

New Hampshire
1. Warren 20%
2. Sanders
3. Buttigieg

CarnalK 01-21-2020 10:17 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hari Seldon (Post 22070005)
Iowa:
Biden 33%
Sanders
Klobuchar

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hari Seldon (Post 22080829)
Revised prediction (based in part on an analysis by an Iowan in today's Times)

Iowa:
Warren 33%
Sanders
Klobuchar

That must have been one heck of a convincing article. Lol.

Oakminster 01-21-2020 11:39 AM

Iowa:

1) Biden @ 37%
2) Buttigieg
3) Warren

New Hampshire

1) Bernie @ 31%
2) Biden
3) Buttigieg

Thing Fish 01-21-2020 03:20 PM

Iowa:

Sanders (22)
Biden
Buttigieg

NH:

Sanders (29)
Biden
Buttigieg

Then Warren drops out and endorses Sanders, game over. In a perfect world Mayor Pete hangs around until Super Tuesday to divide the moderate vote and give Bernie an insurmountable delegate lead.

El_Kabong 01-21-2020 11:37 PM

Iowa:

Biden 23%
Warren
Sanders

New Hampshire:

Sanders 20%
Biden
Buttigieg

Pleonast 02-04-2020 09:36 AM

I declare myself the winner of Iowa! :cool:

Jonathan Chance 02-04-2020 09:46 AM

So shall we all!

AK84 02-04-2020 10:11 AM

If this had happened in the foreign country the State Department would have issued "statements of concern" and there would have been lengthy pieces in NYT and CNN.com opinion section on how this illustrates the dysfunctional state of Country X.

MortSahlFan 02-04-2020 10:12 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by AK84 (Post 22119103)
If this had happened in the foreign country the State Department would have issued "statements of concern" and there would have been lengthy pieces in NYT and CNN.com opinion section on how this illustrates the dysfunctional state of Country X.

Exactly

Smitty 02-04-2020 10:42 AM

Iowa

Sanders (26%)
Buttigieg
Biden


New Hampshire
Sanders (30%)
Biden
Buttigieg

Thing Fish 02-05-2020 01:18 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DinoR (Post 22063249)
That is still not as clear as you might hope. In previous years Iowa reported state delegate equivalents. That is the estimate share of delegates to the state level convention based on feeding the precinct level delegates actually selected through their estimation of the intervening conventions. The media would report that and sometimes call it the vote;CNN did in 2016. That is just an estimate of the delegates to the state convention that will be selected by the intervening conventions. The media typically tacks on a further estimate of how many delegates for the national convention will be selected by the state convention. That can differ some between media sources due to rounding. As long as we specify CNN and it being the "vote" (actually state delegate equivalents) instead of the national delegates we would have been fine ...in 2016.

Unfortunately it is not 2016. Iowa changed things.

Could multiple candidates 'win' the Democratic caucuses? New rules make it possible.

Iowa will now be reporting three separate numbers for the Democratic caucuses. There will be where caucus goers initially align, where they align after they see who doesn't have enough to break threshold in that first alignment, and the state delegate equivalents. We should probably pick which one of those we want to use. :p

Yes, we should have, but we didn't. And now it looks likely that the raw vote totals could produce one winner (Sanders) and the SDE count another (Buttigieg).

Halftime scores:

In the world where we say Buttigieg won:

Hari 1, asahi 1, everyone else 0

In the world where we say Sanders won:

pjacks 2, UltraV 1, Squid 1, Oak 1, TF 1, everyone else 0

My personal suggestion would be to give everyone credit for picking either Bernie or Pete first or second, so pjacks 2, 6 others 1.

Thing Fish 02-05-2020 01:36 AM

I think pjacks can probably start warming up his basking muscles. Seems highly likely that the NH finish will be Sanders-Buttigieg-Warren or maybe Biden. That would give two points to the four players, including pjacks, who picked Sanders-BIDEN-Warren. Hari and pjacks would be tied at 3 if it's Sanders-Buttigieg-Biden. Oakminster and I would be tied for the lead if Biden rallies to finish second between Bernie and Pete. Asahi and Hari would need Buttigieg to fall out of the top three to have a shot.

Of course, all that assumes that J. Chance takes my suggestion about how to interpret the Iowa results.

asahi 02-06-2020 06:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Thing Fish (Post 22120802)
Yes, we should have, but we didn't. And now it looks likely that the raw vote totals could produce one winner (Sanders) and the SDE count another (Buttigieg).

Halftime scores:

In the world where we say Buttigieg won:

Hari 1, asahi 1, everyone else 0

In the world where we say Sanders won:

pjacks 2, UltraV 1, Squid 1, Oak 1, TF 1, everyone else 0

My personal suggestion would be to give everyone credit for picking either Bernie or Pete first or second, so pjacks 2, 6 others 1.

I'm fine with taking this as a defeat. My own personal opinion is that Sanders won the race, except for a quirk and a totally botched caucus. I had actually thought more than once about switching my IA prediction to Sanders and just never got around to doing it.

Whatevs...

Thing Fish 02-13-2020 07:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Oakminster (Post 22092631)
Iowa:

1) Biden @ 37%
2) Buttigieg
3) Warren

New Hampshire

1) Bernie @ 31%
2) Biden
3) Buttigieg

Hey, we forgot all about this! If Im figuring correctly looks like Oak is our winner. Happy basking!

(I decided to count Buttigieg as the winner in IA, since he did end up earning more delegates).

Thing Fish 02-13-2020 07:57 PM

Nobody called Buttigieg winning Iowa. Only Pleonast and Hari called Biden not making the top three in even one State. Hari called Klobuchar 3rd, but unfortunately he did it in the wrong State.

Jonathan Chance 02-14-2020 06:06 AM

Hey, I got distracted, too. Work stuff.

Well done, Oak. Though I dare say we got results that were far outside the predicted outcomes.


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