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-   -   Data on what % of people are sex offenders? (https://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=880331)

Velocity 08-12-2019 06:51 PM

Data on what % of people are sex offenders?
 
There are all kinds of stats on how many people are victims of sex crimes (although they are all estimates, since getting a true count is impossible, and sex crimes are very often unreported,) but are there any stats/estimates on what % of the population is sex offenders?

I would imagine that it would be very difficult to get such a figure because a victim is a victim, but an offender can have multiple victims. So if you have 100 victims in Dade County, that doesn't tell you how many offenders there are in Dade County. etc. etc.

HurricaneDitka 08-12-2019 07:00 PM

We keep lists of this sort of thing, so it actually seems like a relatively strait-forward answer. From Wikipedia:

Quote:

According to NCMEC, as of 2016 there were 859,500 registered sex offenders in United States.
859,500 / ~323 million (USA population 2016) = ~0.27% of people (in America) are sex offenders.

Velocity 08-12-2019 07:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by HurricaneDitka (Post 21802681)
We keep lists of this sort of thing, so it actually seems like a relatively strait-forward answer. From Wikipedia:



859,500 / ~323 million (USA population 2016) = ~0.27% of people (in America) are sex offenders.

OK, but I mean an estimate of the true unofficial number, which is always higher than the official known number. Just like how there are always many more victims of rape than the actual official rape-victim stats.

DinoR 08-12-2019 07:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by HurricaneDitka (Post 21802681)
We keep lists of this sort of thing, so it actually seems like a relatively strait-forward answer.

Even those lists can be poor proxies for counting people convicted of sex crimes. States have various requirements for who has to be carried on those lists. Juvenile offenders can be excluded or dropped with time. Some adult offenders can face less than lifetime requirements to register. When California was dropping the lifetime registration requirement for all sex offenders in 2017 they were one of only four states to require lifetime registration.

Sex offender registrations undercount even the total number of convicted sex offenders let alone those that haven't been convicted.

Tim@T-Bonham.net 08-12-2019 10:07 PM

The whole question is pretty silly. The definition of "sex offender" varies widely from country to country, even between states within a country.

In some states, any sexual activity with a person under age 18 is a sex crime. So I'd estimate that 2/3rds of the high school kids are "sex offenders" (especially on Prom night). In other states or countries, girls can be married off as young as age 12 or 14. But that's legal, so the 'husband' is NOT a "sex offender".

We'd need a lot more specific conditions to have a reasonable estimate/answer.

SamuelA 08-12-2019 10:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tim@T-Bonham.net (Post 21802906)
The whole question is pretty silly. The definition of "sex offender" varies widely from country to country, even between states within a country.

Well, some estimates say that 1/3 of all women have been raped at least once.

So, then, what percentage of men are committing these rapes? Is it 1%, where each rapist man managed to rape 33 separate women before finally being imprisoned? Possibly, but this seems less than likely. Is it 10%? If it's 10%, does society need a lot more prison capacity or what should be done? (I'm not counting statutory rape within a reasonable age range and women who report they were raped at least once probably aren't counting it either)

snfaulkner 08-12-2019 10:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by HurricaneDitka (Post 21802681)
We keep lists of this sort of thing, so it actually seems like a relatively strait-forward answer. From Wikipedia:



859,500 / ~323 million (USA population 2016) = ~0.27% of people (in America) are sex offenders.

Your use of "we" in this instance creeps me the hell out. But I'm willing to go with what I think you meant in that "we"=wikipedia

Velocity 08-12-2019 10:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tim@T-Bonham.net (Post 21802906)
The whole question is pretty silly. The definition of "sex offender" varies widely from country to country, even between states within a country.

In some states, any sexual activity with a person under age 18 is a sex crime. So I'd estimate that 2/3rds of the high school kids are "sex offenders" (especially on Prom night). In other states or countries, girls can be married off as young as age 12 or 14. But that's legal, so the 'husband' is NOT a "sex offender".

We'd need a lot more specific conditions to have a reasonable estimate/answer.


It's fair to exclude consensual sex between minors and adults who fall under the "Romeo and Juliet" provision of laws (i.e., generally, an 18-year old and 17-year old having consensual sex isn't a crime under such statutes)

So yes, what % of men and women have committed what would be considered "real" sex crimes?

HurricaneDitka 08-12-2019 11:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by snfaulkner (Post 21802958)
Your use of "we" in this instance creeps me the hell out. But I'm willing to go with what I think you meant in that "we"=wikipedia

"We" refers to the government in this case. I meant that they maintain lists or "registries" of sex offenders.

HurricaneDitka 08-12-2019 11:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Velocity (Post 21802960)
... So yes, what % of men and women have committed what would be considered "real" sex crimes?

That's going to be a whole 'nother debate about what constitutes a "real" sex crime.

HurricaneDitka 08-12-2019 11:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SamuelA (Post 21802934)
Well, some estimates say that 1/3 of all women have been raped at least once. ...

I'm curious where these estimates came from. Do you have some cites?

snfaulkner 08-12-2019 11:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by HurricaneDitka (Post 21802990)
"We" refers to the government in this case. I meant that they maintain lists or "registries" of sex offenders.

That's fine. My post was mostly a drunken joke. I know we're not each other's biggest fans, but I didn't mean to imply anything. Not this time, anyway. Sorry if I came across that way. Honestly, I didn't even realize who I was responding to when I did it.

kenobi 65 08-12-2019 11:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Velocity (Post 21802960)
It's fair to exclude consensual sex between minors and adults who fall under the "Romeo and Juliet" provision of laws (i.e., generally, an 18-year old and 17-year old having consensual sex isn't a crime under such statutes)

So yes, what % of men and women have committed what would be considered "real" sex crimes?

Given that 41% of U.S. high school students report having had sexual intercourse, though some of those were likely 18 (or had a sexual partner who was 18+), and that that figure was at 54% back in 1991, we can safely say that, if not a majority, a substantial minority of Americans had sex before age 18.

Thus, we can also pretty safely say that, for all of those who were sexually active before age 18, the vast majority of their sex partners from that time period were technically guilty of sex crimes (in most cases, while they, themselves, were minors, as well).

Also, note that those figures are for sexual intercourse; every teenager who goes to second base or third base with another teenager could also be, theoretically, considered to be guilty of sexual assault.

HurricaneDitka 08-12-2019 11:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by snfaulkner (Post 21803003)
That's fine. My post was mostly a drunken joke. I know we're not each other's biggest fans, but I didn't mean to imply anything. Not this time, anyway. Sorry if I came across that way. Honestly, I didn't even realize who I was responding to when I did it.

It's all good. And while I'm probably not, technically, your biggest fan, I don't think I'd describe my opinion of you in such a negative tone. I generally find what you post interesting and worth the time to read it. :)

guizot 08-13-2019 12:01 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tim@T-Bonham.net (Post 21802906)
The whole question is pretty silly. The definition of "sex offender" varies widely from country to country, even between states within a country.

I think in some places urinating in public is construed as a sex offense, because it's charged as "lewd behavior," or something like that.

md2000 08-13-2019 03:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kenobi 65 (Post 21803011)
Given that 41% of U.S. high school students report having had sexual intercourse, though some of those were likely 18 (or had a sexual partner who was 18+), and that that figure was at 54% back in 1991, we can safely say that, if not a majority, a substantial minority of Americans had sex before age 18.

Thus, we can also pretty safely say that, for all of those who were sexually active before age 18, the vast majority of their sex partners from that time period were technically guilty of sex crimes (in most cases, while they, themselves, were minors, as well).

Also, note that those figures are for sexual intercourse; every teenager who goes to second base or third base with another teenager could also be, theoretically, considered to be guilty of sexual assault.

Isn't it the case that most of the US states have an age of consent at 16, or 16 when the partner is less than 2 or 3 years older, etc.? That still implies a significant number of "sex offenders" even with that exception.

KneadToKnow 08-13-2019 03:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by snfaulkner (Post 21803003)
That's fine. My post was mostly a drunken joke. I know we're not each other's biggest fans, but I didn't mean to imply anything. Not this time, anyway. Sorry if I came across that way. Honestly, I didn't even realize who I was responding to when I did it.

Quote:

Originally Posted by HurricaneDitka (Post 21803023)
It's all good. And while I'm probably not, technically, your biggest fan, I don't think I'd describe my opinion of you in such a negative tone. I generally find what you post interesting and worth the time to read it. :)

Get a room, you two.

kenobi 65 08-13-2019 04:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by md2000 (Post 21804342)
Isn't it the case that most of the US states have an age of consent at 16, or 16 when the partner is less than 2 or 3 years older, etc.? That still implies a significant number of "sex offenders" even with that exception.

Broadly, it looks like the age of consent varies from 16 to 18 depending on the state, but many states do indeed have provisions taking into account the age of the other person.

In reading that Wikipedia article, I note that in Wisconsin, where I grew up, the age of consent is 18, and there is no "close-in age exception." Given that a lot of my classmates in middle school and high school were apparenly becoming sexually active by age 14 or 15, it means that a significant number of my classmates were, by legal standards, sex offenders.

Wesley Clark 08-13-2019 05:09 PM

I looked into it years ago. I don't remember where I saw this statistic, so take what you want from it.

5-8% of men will commit a sex crime over their lives. Most will only have a few or one victims.

1-2% of men (a subset of that 5-8%) are serial sex offenders. That 1-2% of men produce 60%+ of the sex crime victims in society. Think of people like Bill Cosby. If 25% of women have been raped and Bill Cosby raped at least 60, that means in a group of 100+ people you could still have a significant percentage of victims of rape where only 1 man is the offender for all of them.

There also may (or may not) be a lot of overlap with various personality disorders and that 1-2% of men. They are more prone to cluster B issues like narcisissm, sociopathy, borderline personality. But also disorders like avoidant personality disorder. But then again, the studies are contradictory on this.

It would be easy to say the majority of that 1-2% suffer from cluster B personality disorders (mostly narcissism or antisocial), but I don't know if the stats match that.

Someone like Trump for example is a serial sex offender. Dozens of victims and probably has narcissism.

Velocity 08-13-2019 05:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kenobi 65 (Post 21804407)
Broadly, it looks like the age of consent varies from 16 to 18 depending on the state, but many states do indeed have provisions taking into account the age of the other person.

In reading that Wikipedia article, I note that in Wisconsin, where I grew up, the age of consent is 18, and there is no "close-in age exception." Given that a lot of my classmates in middle school and high school were apparenly becoming sexually active by age 14 or 15, it means that a significant number of my classmates were, by legal standards, sex offenders.

Right - again, we can exclude "harmless" sex crimes from the thread ("harmless" may be a troublesome term but I'm sure most of us agree that if two teenagers are having consensual sex, that's usually not harmful even if it technically flouts the law).

We can also exclude things like drunk men peeing on the sidewalk (which isn't sexual in nature, or not intended to be sexual - it may show lack of common sense, or just being too drunk, but it's not really what we're talking about.)

Wesley Clark 08-13-2019 05:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Wesley Clark (Post 21804511)
Someone like Trump for example is a serial sex offender. Dozens of victims and probably has narcissism.

Also this wasn't an attempt to bring up politics, its just that there may be a connection between men with cluster B personality disorders and men who are serial sex offenders. Trump is someone who falls into both categories.

But so does Ted Bundy (sociopath and serial sex offender).

SamuelA 08-13-2019 06:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by HurricaneDitka (Post 21803002)
I'm curious where these estimates came from. Do you have some cites?

https://www.cdc.gov/features/sexualviolence/index.html

Apparently the real number is 1/5, or 20%. Still huge.

pohjonen 08-13-2019 10:09 PM

The rural town in the south which was my birthplace has a total population of 209. There are 33 registered sex offenders there. I figure that's at minimum 25 percent of the men, if you subtract the children and the women. No wonder my mom was so screwed up. I'm glad we moved away when I was a baby.

Velocity 08-15-2019 02:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pohjonen (Post 21804923)
The rural town in the south which was my birthplace has a total population of 209. There are 33 registered sex offenders there. I figure that's at minimum 25 percent of the men, if you subtract the children and the women. No wonder my mom was so screwed up. I'm glad we moved away when I was a baby.

Surely that's an anomaly? Was it like some region where sex offenders were assigned to live after release?

md2000 08-15-2019 07:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pohjonen (Post 21804923)
The rural town in the south which was my birthplace has a total population of 209. There are 33 registered sex offenders there. I figure that's at minimum 25 percent of the men, if you subtract the children and the women. No wonder my mom was so screwed up. I'm glad we moved away when I was a baby.

What specifically were they charged with? (And are they all actually "from" there, or is it a gathering place for misfits from all over?) While as I understand it, "peeing on the sidewalk" is mostly an urban legend, most such crimes were a defence for exhibitionists, that does seem excessively high for actual prosecutions.

pohjonen 08-15-2019 08:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Velocity (Post 21807962)
Surely that's an anomaly? Was it like some region where sex offenders were assigned to live after release?

Not an anomaly. My mother's younger brother actually bragged to one of my dad's brothers about how he had gone after a bunch of his nieces. My dad's brother then went to my dad and said "Keep your daughters away from Charles (Not his real name)." This tells me that this stuff was so common there that it didn't even occur to my mom's brother that he ought to keep that tidbit to himself.

doreen 08-15-2019 08:54 PM

Data on what % of people are sex offenders?
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Velocity (Post 21804519)
Right - again, we can exclude "harmless" sex crimes from the thread ("harmless" may be a troublesome term but I'm sure most of us agree that if two teenagers are having consensual sex, that's usually not harmful even if it technically flouts the law).



We can also exclude things like drunk men peeing on the sidewalk (which isn't sexual in nature, or not intended to be sexual - it may show lack of common sense, or just being too drunk, but it's not really what we're talking about.)



In addition to these examples, there is also the issue of crimes considered “sex offenses” that are not necessarily sexually motivated. For example , someone convicted of kidnapping a victim under 17 must register as a sex offender in NY, even if the kidnapping was not sexually motivated.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

engineer_comp_geek 08-17-2019 02:09 AM

Moderator Note

Quote:

Originally Posted by Wesley Clark (Post 21804511)
Someone like Trump for example is a serial sex offender. Dozens of victims and probably has narcissism.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Wesley Clark (Post 21804523)
Also this wasn't an attempt to bring up politics, its just that there may be a connection between men with cluster B personality disorders and men who are serial sex offenders. Trump is someone who falls into both categories.

Regardless of the intention, you can't bring up Trump without bringing politics into GQ. Please make your point without using Trump as an example, at least in this forum.

Aspidistra 08-17-2019 04:28 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kenobi 65 (Post 21803011)
Given that 41% of U.S. high school students report having had sexual intercourse, though some of those were likely 18 (or had a sexual partner who was 18+), and that that figure was at 54% back in 1991, we can safely say that, if not a majority, a substantial minority of Americans had sex before age 18.

When looking at statistics like this, it's important to remember that a substantial number of these people are not "technically" victims of sexual assault, they're REALLY victims of sexual assault - child abuse victims (plus, of course, people who were raped at 18). Studies suggest child sex abuse rates might be about 20% (which certainly puts "20% of women have ever been raped" into context - of course, some of these sexual assaults would probably not be classed as rape, as such)

I can't see that these studies of teen sexual behaviour ever make a really rigorous attempt at distinguishing "had sex" and "had consensual sex", but people tend to read them as "had consensual sex". Not necessarily warranted.


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