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-   -   Democratic fundraising January 2020 (https://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=889296)

dalej42 01-30-2020 02:12 PM

Democratic fundraising January 2020
 
Poll coming. Letís predict who raises the most in January 2020.

Now that weíre in the election year, the fundraising reports will be monthly. Itís the run up to IA and NH, so Iím getting bombarded with emails and texts from just about everyone but havenít gotten anything desperate like last monthís Warren stuff. The main question Iím looking at is will Yang continue to keep the money flowing in, especially after missing the debate. He surprised everyone in Q4 2019, but I think he fades in January fundraising.

Iíll predict Bernie raises the most. Heís got that email list of small donors and damn theyíre loyal. I only hope people are exaggerating on the Bernie subreddit about skipping meals to donate to Bernie. I know I crowed loudly on social media that I was donating $75 to Pete rather than going to a nightclub for NYE, but skipping a crowded NYE party isnít the same as skipping meals.

Iíll predict Pete for second followed by Warren then Biden then Yang then Klobuchar.

BigAppleBucky 01-31-2020 05:06 PM

If one is to include donations from the candidates themselves to their campaigns, Styer laps your field and Bloomberg laps your field plus Styer. Money really matters.

I think you're probably right about Sanders, but Mayor Pete has some big money donors.

dalej42 01-31-2020 06:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BigAppleBucky (Post 22113068)
If one is to include donations from the candidates themselves to their campaigns, Styer laps your field and Bloomberg laps your field plus Styer. Money really matters.

I think you're probably right about Sanders, but Mayor Pete has some big money donors.

I agree that the personal donations from a candidate’s own money towards their own campaigns don’t count.

That’s different than the money that Warren and Sanders transferred from their Senate campaigns which is reported. For example, Warren transferred ten million dollars in leftover Senate campaign funds to her presidential campaign in Q3.

‘Big money donors’ are irrelevant. For the primary, the maximum anyone can give is $2800. Sanders can get someone to donate $28 100 times or send $2800 in one fell swoop. That’s the maximum. So-called big donors to Sanders can always donate to Our Revolution PAC if they exceed that.

I do think a candidate like Pete has a lot of people that donate more but less often. That’s a good strategy to help (very slightly) reduce the endless bombardment of fundraising emails.

Wesley Clark 01-31-2020 07:51 PM

Bernie. I think he will win both Iowa and New Hampshire and his donations will jump after that.

dalej42 01-31-2020 10:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Wesley Clark (Post 22113320)
Bernie. I think he will win both Iowa and New Hampshire and his donations will jump after that.

But that wonít affect his January fundraising which ends in 13 minutes. Iíll start a new poll for February next month.

RTFirefly 02-01-2020 06:07 AM

Wesley's got a point, which I made in another thread: nobody's going to give a good goddamn about January fundraising numbers.

Feb. 3: Iowa caucuses
Feb. 7: Pre-NH debate
Feb. 11: NH primary
Feb. 19: Pre-NV debate
Feb. 22: NV caucuses
Feb. 25: Pre-SC debate
Feb. 29: SC primary
Mar. 3: Super Tuesday primaries

That's the calendar that will drive the news, and the results of those primaries and caucuses are what will drive fundraising from then on.

The point of January fundraising was to have money to contest Iowa and NH. By the time candidates have to release their January fundraising numbers, the Iowa results will be driving the news and subsequent fundraising, and the effects of January fundraising will be baked into that. They won't matter as a separate thing of their own anymore.
.

DinoR 02-01-2020 10:06 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RTFirefly (Post 22113695)
The point of January fundraising was to have money to contest Iowa and NH.

Any campaign that thinks it has a chance better have been doing MUCH more than simply contesting IA and NH during Jan. The schedule is different in critical ways then the old rules of thumb capture. It is front loaded in a way it wasn't when those rules of thumb entered the public consciousness. The move towards early voting and easier absentee voting effectively front loads the schedule further. That move is especially strong in states that Democrats dominate where DNC rules award extra delegates.

Some other dates to compare to that schedule. I will run through one week after the NH primary when we could reasonably expect money from a strong NH showing to start to be available for significant spending. Dates extracted from the wikipedia entry for the 2020 Dem primary page.

Quote:

January 17: No-excuse, in-person absentee voting in the Minnesota primary began.
January 18: No-excuse, in-person absentee voting in the Vermont primary, and in-person absentee voting in the Virginia primary began.
January 20: Early voting began in the North Dakota firehouse caucuses.
January 24: No-excuse, in-person absentee voting in the Idaho primary began.
January 25: No-excuse, in-person absentee voting in the Michigan primary began.

February
February 2: No-excuse, in-person absentee voting in the Maine primary begins.[386]
February 3:
Iowa caucuses
Early voting in the California primary begins.
February 11: New Hampshire primary
February 12: Early voting in the Tennessee primary begins.
February 13: Early voting in the North Carolina primary begins.
February 15: Early voting in the Nevada caucuses begins.
February 17: Early voting in the Arkansas primary begins.
February 18:
Early voting in the Texas and Utah primaries begins.
Early voting in the Nevada caucuses ends.
6 states are already voting. 7 will be voting by the time of the Iowa caucus. California, with its giant haul of delegates, mails its absentee ballots the same day as Iowa. That means 8 states voting before the NH primary. 15 states that aren't either Iowa or New Hampshire will be voting before a post NH fundraising bump can reasonably start to have any significant effect. This primary is simply not the same as primaries where the old rules of thumb worked.

The numbers may not matter as a story by the time they are released. They are huge for not getting crushed in the votes that won't be reported until early March.

dalej42 02-01-2020 03:01 PM

I imagine January fundraising numbers won’t be as crucial as we’ve got our big 4 and that won’t change until voting begins. I’m most interested in Warren. She abandoned the wine cave stuff and the billionaire tears in January. Did it increase fundraising? How about the Bernie dust up and the snakes?

Aside from that, does Yang not making the debate stage cause his $$$ to dry up? I don’t think he’s running a particularly expensive campaign but as voting begins will his sideshow not get any attention?

Heffalump and Roo 02-01-2020 03:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dalej42 (Post 22110536)
The main question Iím looking at is will Yang continue to keep the money flowing in, especially after missing the debate. He surprised everyone in Q4 2019, but I think he fades in January fundraising.

According to Eric Ming, Yang's fundraising for January 2020 was $6.7+M, raising $1.2M on the last day of January 2020.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Eric Ming
Some news: Yesterday we raised over 1.2 million ó 6.7m+ in January 2020 alone.

If the run rate continues, it would be $20.1M for the quarter which would be higher than the $16.5M from last quarter. On the last day of the month, Ming put up a map showing that the donations came from pretty much every state in the country.

The night of the January debate that he missed brought more media attention and more verified twitter accounts that were mentioning Yang than I've seen with any debate in the past. That night, the Dave Chappelle endorsement was formally announced, as well as some activities from the campaign.

IIRC, he had the 2nd most twitter followers and the 4th most mentions on twitter, as well as a leading international hashtag that night.

That was the night the momentum took off for the campaign, particularly in regards to traditional media.

dalej42 02-01-2020 03:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Heffalump and Roo (Post 22114288)
According to Eric Ming, Yang's fundraising for January 2020 was $6.7+M, raising $1.2M on the last day of January 2020.



If the run rate continues, it would be $20.1M for the quarter which would be higher than the $16.5M from last quarter. On the last day of the month, Ming put up a map showing that the donations came from pretty much every state in the country.

The night of the January debate that he missed brought more media attention and more verified twitter accounts that were mentioning Yang than I've seen with any debate in the past. That night, the Dave Chappelle endorsement was formally announced, as well as some activities from the campaign.

IIRC, he had the 2nd most twitter followers and the 4th most mentions on twitter, as well as a leading international hashtag that night.

That was the night the momentum took off for the campaign, particularly in regards to traditional media.

Thatís quite impressive, theyíre a loyal bunch.

I got a text from Pete saying they met their January goal but I havenít found the numbers yet. Pete usually releases on the first day, it may be buried in my email.

RTFirefly 02-01-2020 06:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DinoR (Post 22113876)
Any campaign that thinks it has a chance better have been doing MUCH more than simply contesting IA and NH during Jan.

Well yeah, but the point is that almost nobody outside the campaigns themselves will have an interest in the January fundraising numbers, the point being that money is there to produce caucus and primary results, and two nights from now, results are what we'll have. And after that, the calendar will have wave after wave of debates, primaries, debates, caucuses, etc.

The reason candidates' Q1, Q2, Q3, Q4 fundraising from 2019 was newsworthy at the time was that we didn't have any primary or caucus results yet, and so the polls and the money represented the potential to achieve those results. They were all we had at the time. That won't be the case 60 hours from now.

You may be right about all that stuff you said, but it's completely sideways to my point.

RTFirefly 02-25-2020 07:50 PM

Interesting tidbit in the WaPo just now about January fundraising:
Quote:

Here’s a comparison of the non-billionaire candidates’ January small-dollar fundraising (share of total raised in January that came from donors giving lower than $200):

Sanders: 53%
Warren: 48%
Klobuchar: 44%
Gabbard: 39%
Biden: 35%
Buttigieg: 29%
That's right: "Wine Cave" Pete solidified his hold on that nickname by raising a smaller share of his January fundraising from small-dollar donors than any of the other candidates except for the two billionaires.


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