Straight Dope Message Board

Straight Dope Message Board (https://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/index.php)
-   Politics & Elections (https://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/forumdisplay.php?f=34)
-   -   Do you believe that Bernie will beat Trump? (https://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=890586)

Nars Glinley 02-24-2020 09:50 AM

Do you believe that Bernie will beat Trump?
 
I originally considered "can" instead of "will" in the title but I don't want to cloud this thread with "If such and such happens", then he "can" win. I want to know if you think that he will beat Trump. So look into your crystal ball and vote.

Obviously this assumes that Bernie wins the nomination. Please don't fight the hypothetical.

drad dog 02-24-2020 10:22 AM

I'd like to see some cites that bernie has ever not been beating trinp in polls.

Fiddle Peghead 02-24-2020 10:27 AM

Yes.

Oakminster 02-24-2020 10:28 AM

Bernie is not even winning a majority of his own party at the moment. I think he's the easiest candidate for Trump to beat. Recent elections in my state showed the GOP successfully brand a Dem candidate who aired commercials showing the candidate carrying his own pistol and sighting in a deer rifle as an "extreme liberal" akin to Pelosi, AOC, and Sanders. This particular candidate would be considered moderate/conservative in most parts of the country. If they can do that to him, they're going to destroy Bernie with the same sort of attacks.

Left Hand of Dorkness 02-24-2020 10:30 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Oakminster (Post 22155910)
Bernie is not even winning a majority of his own party at the moment. I think he's the easiest candidate for Trump to beat. Recent elections in my state showed the GOP successfully brand a Dem candidate who aired commercials showing the candidate carrying his own pistol and sighting in a deer rifle as an "extreme liberal" akin to Pelosi, AOC, and Sanders. This particular candidate would be considered moderate/conservative in most parts of the country. If they can do that to him, they're going to destroy Bernie with the same sort of attacks.

That's one interpretation. The other interpretation is that the reality of a candidate's actual views is immaterial to Republican attacks, and that Republicans would launch the same stupid attacks against Bloomberg and Biden that they'd launch against Warren or Sanders.

The question isn't how will they attack the candidate. The question is how the candidate will respond.

Buck Godot 02-24-2020 10:44 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Left Hand of Dorkness (Post 22155916)
That's one interpretation. The other interpretation is that the reality of a candidate's actual views is immaterial to Republican attacks, and that Republicans would launch the same stupid attacks against Bloomberg and Biden that they'd launch against Warren or Sanders.

The question isn't how will they attack the candidate. The question is how the candidate will respond.

True, and when pressed with the question "Are you a socialist" some candidates will respond "No, I'm not" while Bernie will respond "Yes I am, but..."

Lantern 02-24-2020 10:47 AM

I would give him around a 1/3 chance of beating Trump.

FlikTheBlue 02-24-2020 10:54 AM

I think he has a good chance of winning so I went with yes. It seems that attacks against Democratic candidates for POTUS fall into two different categories. There’s the type launched against Obama calling him a secret Muslim atheist who was born in Kenya but was also hiding his “long form” birth certificate from Hawaii. Then there’s Clinton and her e-mails and Biden with the whole Ukraine / Burisma stuff. I think that the attacks against Bernie are more likely to end up being the former type than the latter, and will thus be less effective. If Bernie ends up the nominee he can win as long as moderates fall in line and show up to vote. All it would take to convince them is if Obama, Biden, Clinton, and so on turn out to campaign for Bernie. If they do, Bernie wins. If they instead give tepid endorsements and don’t hit the trail, then Bernie will lose.

BeepKillBeep 02-24-2020 10:59 AM

I think Sanders would be a good president for the USA; however, I don't think he can win. Of course, I don't think any of the nominees can win. I believe Trump will win re-election. The fact is there are too many Americans who simply do not care that Trump is a criminal and a conman. Once Trump's campaign starts with the lies the swing voters will vote for him because ultimately the country has not burnt down, so Trump's not that bad, right? Ignoring, of course, his assault on everything that makes the USA, the USA. I'm sure the Democrats will do their best to try to point it out, but really if somebody hasn't clued it yet, I don't think anything will make them get it.

dalej42 02-24-2020 10:59 AM

Not a chance in Hell. Bernie hasn’t even won the nomination and he’s spouting off stupid shit about Castro on national TV as if he was a professor at the liberal arts college his wife managed to bankrupt.

Pleonast 02-24-2020 11:02 AM

Republicans will call Bernie "socialist", but it won't actually hurt his candidacy. Trump has damaged the conservative label so much that socialist is a reasonable alternative now.

QuickSilver 02-24-2020 11:04 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by FlikTheBlue (Post 22155962)
I think he has a good chance of winning so I went with yes. It seems that attacks against Democratic candidates for POTUS fall into two different categories. There’s the type launched against Obama calling him a secret Muslim atheist who was born in Kenya but was also hiding his “long form” birth certificate from Hawaii. Then there’s Clinton and her e-mails and Biden with the whole Ukraine / Burisma stuff. I think that the attacks against Bernie are more likely to end up being the former type than the latter, and will thus be less effective. If Bernie ends up the nominee he can win as long as moderates fall in line and show up to vote. All it would take to convince them is if Obama, Biden, Clinton, and so on turn out to campaign for Bernie. If they do, Bernie wins. If they instead give tepid endorsements and don’t hit the trail, then Bernie will lose.

Except no evidence of Obama being a Muslim or Kenyan was ever produced. There is recorded evidence of Bernie calling himself a socialist and complimenting Castro. So I think attacks on Bernie will definitely fall into the latter category, rather than the former. Thereby being much more effective.

BobLibDem 02-24-2020 11:33 AM

It's a tougher road for Bernie than for Biden but I think he can. I start with the states we can pencil in blue or red right now:

That leaves 10 states and 2 congressional districts in ME and NE that could in theory go either way. I rate them from likeliest to least likely to turn blue:
1 Minnesota 10
2 Maine CD 1
3 Virginia 13
4 Michigan 16
5 Wisconsin 10
6 Iowa 6
7 Pennsylvania 20
8 North Carolina 15
9 Arizona 11
10 Ohio 18
11 Florida 29
12 Nebraska CD 1

I see the tipping point as Pennsylvania- I can easily see him winning the first 5 on my list, after that it's a little tougher. If it was Biden, PA becomes a given D pickup and the path is much easier.

Buck Godot 02-24-2020 11:35 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pleonast (Post 22155981)
Republicans will call Bernie "socialist", but it won't actually hurt his candidacy. Trump has damaged the conservative label so much that socialist is a reasonable alternative now.

Only among those who are educated as to the subtleties of what socialist means. For others its just another version or radicalism. Back in 2018-2019, I was thinking that a Democrat could win the white house with the simple slogan "return to sanity". Unfortunately Sanders can't use that slogan. Americans are fed up with the drama uncertainty and acrimony that the political system has become and is exemplified by Trump, and Sanders just offers more drama, uncertainty and acrimony, just focused in a different (albeit much better) direction.

Loach 02-24-2020 11:38 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Left Hand of Dorkness (Post 22155916)
That's one interpretation. The other interpretation is that the reality of a candidate's actual views is immaterial to Republican attacks, and that Republicans would launch the same stupid attacks against Bloomberg and Biden that they'd launch against Warren or Sanders.

The question isn't how will they attack the candidate. The question is how the candidate will respond.

I think just stating Bernie’s actual views with some ominous music will be enough to lose the election. Vast expansion of the government, raising taxes and being a socialist. I’m not sure how well he will be able to respond to himself.

Loach 02-24-2020 11:42 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BobLibDem (Post 22156034)
It's a tougher road for Bernie than for Biden but I think he can. I start with the states we can pencil in blue or red right now:

That leaves 10 states and 2 congressional districts in ME and NE that could in theory go either way. I rate them from likeliest to least likely to turn blue:
1 Minnesota 10
2 Maine CD 1
3 Virginia 13
4 Michigan 16
5 Wisconsin 10
6 Iowa 6
7 Pennsylvania 20
8 North Carolina 15
9 Arizona 11
10 Ohio 18
11 Florida 29
12 Nebraska CD 1

I see the tipping point as Pennsylvania- I can easily see him winning the first 5 on my list, after that it's a little tougher. If it was Biden, PA becomes a given D pickup and the path is much easier.

Someone may want to tell Bernie to stop telling Western Pennsylvania they are going to have to find new jobs if he gets elected.

Little Nemo 02-24-2020 11:47 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Left Hand of Dorkness (Post 22155916)
That's one interpretation. The other interpretation is that the reality of a candidate's actual views is immaterial to Republican attacks, and that Republicans would launch the same stupid attacks against Bloomberg and Biden that they'd launch against Warren or Sanders.

The Republicans would have a much more difficult time painting Bloomberg or Biden as a socialist than they would have with Sanders.

And that's not Sanders' only baggage. He's Jewish, which will fire up the Christian Right. He may not be racist, but it's going to be really easy to make him look like a racist. Given the fact that Trump's only five years younger, they'll probably go light on the age issue but the Republicans will whisper about his heart attack.

BobLibDem 02-24-2020 11:48 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Loach (Post 22156053)
Someone may want to tell Bernie to stop telling Western Pennsylvania they are going to have to find new jobs if he gets elected.

That's an issue. DJT told the coal miners that their jobs were going to come back and King Coal was going to reign again. Of course it didn't happen but that's what they want to hear. But I thnk there are more votes to be had in one Philadelphia ward than could be reached among the coal miners.

Loach 02-24-2020 11:55 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BobLibDem (Post 22156067)
That's an issue. DJT told the coal miners that their jobs were going to come back and King Coal was going to reign again. Of course it didn't happen but that's what they want to hear. But I thnk there are more votes to be had in one Philadelphia ward than could be reached among the coal miners.

Not so much coal but oil and gas. Fracking supports upwards of 300,000 jobs in Pennsylvania. Bernie can pretend that will be made up for by green jobs but those jobs will go to different people in different locations.

Maybe Bernie can energize (no pun intended) the urban vote to offset that. Maybe not. He’s no Obama.

Loach 02-24-2020 12:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Little Nemo (Post 22156064)

And that's not Sanders' only baggage. He's Jewish, which will fire up the Christian Right. He may not be racist, but it's going to be really easy to make him look like a racist. Given the fact that Trump's only five years younger, they'll probably go light on the age issue but the Republicans will whisper about his heart attack.

Worse than being Jewish in a nationwide election is being atheist. He has been all over the map with his comments on his own personal religion. He tries to steer it toward spirituality but other quotes make it seem like he’s a non-believer. I certainly have no problem with that. Some of my favorite people that I see in the mirror are non-religious. But it’s a big liability in elections. A recent poll I posted in another thread looked at the biggest liabilities in elections in ethnicity, beliefs and creeds over the years. It had to do with the percentage of people who would never vote for someone who is black or Jewish etc. The two biggest liabilities? Socialist and atheist.

https://news.gallup.com/poll/285563/...abilities.aspx

Lamoral 02-24-2020 12:21 PM

I think it depends on a number of things that he does in the general election campaign.

1. Don't say the word "millionaire", and don't even say the word "billionaire." Say instead "the billionaire class" or "an inner circle of billionaires." He needs to lean into the idea that the billionaires are on a tier WAAAAAAAY above even the millionaires, and certainly way above the middle class. He needs to promote the idea that the billionaires are an elitist cabal. He should talk about the Skull & Bones and the Bilderberg Group and the Bohemian Grove. I know this stuff overlaps with conspiracy theory bullshit, but that's part of its appeal. Bernie has already cemented the idea that he's fighting the billionaires. OK. Now he needs to make America hate the billionaires. We already know that they're villains to him. If he's going to win, they need to be the villains to US. They cannot merely be an abstraction.

2. He cannot merely be the "angry yelling man." He NEEDS for his speeches to also incorporate some humor, some levity, some level-headed optimistic talk - he needs to warm peoples' hearts, he can't just be raising the blood pressure every time he talks. Some anger is OK. 100% anger all the time is NOT OK. Remember that Trump did not campaign on 100% anger. He was angry at a lot of things but he also threw in a lot of humor, sarcasm, and "aren't you folks beautiful?" flattery.

3. He needs to make it REALLY clear that he is not a communist. If the topic ever comes up, he NEEDS to have a simple and effective rebuttal to the conflation of socialism with communism. Just saying "we need to be more like Sweden and Denmark" is not going to cut it. He needs to explain why his ideas for America are NOT communism, they are NOT related in any way to the Soviet Union or to any communist dictatorship.

4. Above all: he needs to refute the idea that he wants to "burn it all down." I repeatedly hear people describe Sanders this way. It's bullshit. He doesn't want to burn it all down. The things he wants to implement ALREADY EXIST IN MANY OTHER COUNTRIES.

BobLibDem 02-24-2020 12:28 PM

All good points, Lamoral. This is one time the debates might make a difference- seeing a pretty bright guy (regardless of who is nominated) vs a babbling idiot may turn the tide.

RivkahChaya 02-24-2020 12:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Buck Godot (Post 22156037)
Only among those who are educated as to the subtleties of what socialist means. For others its just another version or radicalism. Back in 2018-2019, I was thinking that a Democrat could win the white house with the simple slogan "return to sanity". Unfortunately Sanders can't use that slogan. Americans are fed up with the drama uncertainty and acrimony that the political system has become and is exemplified by Trump, and Sanders just offers more drama, uncertainty and acrimony, just focused in a different (albeit much better) direction.

Wish we had a UPVOTE button. I'd give this 1,000 upvotes.

septimus 02-24-2020 12:32 PM

If Sanders' chance is only 49% we should vote No? I fear his chance is much worse than that.

A lot can happen over the next eight months, but I'm afraid developments will favor Trump. The GOP will crank up its Lie Machine and has a huge campaign fund ready to go; some moderate Ds may give only lukewarm support to Bernie; Putin may find a way to give his puppet a pop in popularity. The Ds are not adept at the political game, I'm afraid; for example, they should have handled the impeachment better.

A recession may be America's best hope, but time is running out and, anyway, I expect Trump to take measures to "goose" the economy in the near term.

QuickSilver 02-24-2020 12:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lamoral (Post 22156159)
4. Above all: he needs to refute the idea that he wants to "burn it all down." I repeatedly hear people describe Sanders this way. It's bullshit. He doesn't want to burn it all down. The things he wants to implement ALREADY EXIST IN MANY OTHER COUNTRIES.

Hell, they exist IN THIS COUNTRY.

septimus 02-24-2020 12:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BobLibDem (Post 22156173)
... This is one time the debates might make a difference- seeing a pretty bright guy (regardless of who is nominated) vs a babbling idiot may turn the tide.

Trump blustered his way to the top against Rubio, Kasich, JEB etc., and then bullied his way against Hillary.

Debating Trump successfully has nothing to do with smarts. What's required is to call out his tantrums as rude and infantile, while remaining calm. I hope Bernie is the man to do that.

QuickSilver 02-24-2020 12:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BobLibDem (Post 22156173)
All good points, Lamoral. This is one time the debates might make a difference- seeing a pretty bright guy (regardless of who is nominated) vs a babbling idiot may turn the tide.

HRC was pretty bright. But the country voted for the babbling idiot.

What do you believe has changed in 4 years?

Trump will like nothing better than to be on stage with Sanders. He'll be Biff to Sander's McFly. And the MAGAcult will eat it up.

Or Trump will refuse to debate. And the MAGAcult will eat that up too.

QuickSilver 02-24-2020 12:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by septimus (Post 22156192)
I hope Bernie is the man to do that.

Bernie will debate Trump EXACTLY the way we see him debate now. With much hand-waving and yelling. He'll be right, of course. But he's unlikely to convince anyone that isn't already convinced.

Lamoral 02-24-2020 01:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by QuickSilver (Post 22156194)
Or Trump will refuse to debate. And the MAGAcult will eat that up too.

I hear this repeatedly on this board and I have to wonder what reality the people are living in who put forth the idea that Trump would not debate his opponent. Trump LIVES for that stage. He would sooner cut off his own dick with a pair of pruning shears than miss an opportunity for the whole country to see him shit-talk the Democratic nominee. He's GOING to be on that goddamn stage and whoever debates him is going to have to prepare very, very hard for it.

QuickSilver 02-24-2020 01:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lamoral (Post 22156310)
I hear this repeatedly on this board and I have to wonder what reality the people are living in who put forth the idea that Trump would not debate his opponent. Trump LIVES for that stage. He would sooner cut off his own dick with a pair of pruning shears than miss an opportunity for the whole country to see him shit-talk the Democratic nominee. He's GOING to be on that goddamn stage and whoever debates him is going to have to prepare very, very hard for it.

I think Trump is a bigger coward than he is a narcissist. Or rather, his narcissism will not allow him to expose himself to embarrassment. I doubt he'd debate someone like Buttigieg or Warren. I think he's much less afraid of facing off against Sanders or Biden.

E-DUB 02-24-2020 01:49 PM

It's pretty clear that both Russia and trump would like to see Bernie as the candidate. I know about the "be careful what you wish for" effect, but they've probably already got reams of actual dirt on Bernie, then add to that the "shit they just make up". They'll probably find an old CPUSA card for Bernie, it's not like the Russians don't have blank ones around somewhere.

Left Hand of Dorkness 02-24-2020 02:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Little Nemo (Post 22156064)
The Republicans would have a much more difficult time painting Bloomberg or Biden as a socialist than they would have with Sanders.

I'm not sure they will: when you're willing to lie outright, and when your base is so willing to believe the lies, your path is pretty easy.

Sanders is much less likely to say, "No I'm not." He's a lot likelier to say, "I'm socialist if you think that public schools and public firefighters and public roads are socialist."

No doubt, this is gonna be his biggest negative, and he's gonna have an uphill climb to overcome it. But it's not like he's "Biden, only socialist." His strong views are his biggest strength as well as his biggest disadvantage: because he's not changing what he says with polls, he's willing to say things that people find outrageous, and also things that people find inspiring.

I got no idea whether he'll beat Trump. I could see it being a blowout election in either direction. But I think he has a better chance of beating Trump, by virtue of undermining Trump's support in working-class white neighborhoods, than other candidates do.

Pleonast 02-24-2020 02:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Buck Godot (Post 22156037)
Only among those who are educated as to the subtleties of what socialist means. For others its just another version or radicalism. Back in 2018-2019, I was thinking that a Democrat could win the white house with the simple slogan "return to sanity". Unfortunately Sanders can't use that slogan. Americans are fed up with the drama uncertainty and acrimony that the political system has become and is exemplified by Trump, and Sanders just offers more drama, uncertainty and acrimony, just focused in a different (albeit much better) direction.

I think Bernie can use a “return to normalcy” type message. It’ll sound like “make the economy work for everyone, not just Trump’s rich friends”, “don’t worry about healthcare, you’ll be covered”, and “Trump wants to whine instead of work for you”. It just has to sound truthy.

Quote:

Originally Posted by QuickSilver (Post 22156194)
What do you believe has changed in 4 years?

The American people have listened to the idiot in chief rant for four years instead of making anyone’s life better.

iiandyiiii 02-24-2020 02:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pleonast (Post 22156432)
I think Bernie can use a “return to normalcy” type message. It’ll sound like “make the economy work for everyone, not just Trump’s rich friends”, “don’t worry about healthcare, you’ll be covered”, and “Trump wants to whine instead of work for you”. It just has to sound truthy.

This is actually one of the things I like best about Bernie, in terms of his potential ability to win -- he doesn't get terribly specific, but rather keeps it general with pronouncements that are very popular (i.e. health care for everyone, free college, etc.). Getting into specifics is usually a bad idea, from a messaging perspective. That shows that Bernie's not just some wide-eyed true believer, but a savvy politician and political messenger (I think he's at least partially a true believer -- more so than most politicians -- but his savviness is in highlighting the pure and authentic parts while successfully hiding his political skills and ruthlessness). At least IMO.

RTFirefly 02-24-2020 02:39 PM

Where's the "I have no fucking idea" poll option? :D

QuickSilver 02-24-2020 02:51 PM

Reposting this from other thread:

Quote:

Originally Posted by iiandyiiii (Post 22156348)
Latest Morning Consult national poll:

https://twitter.com/MorningConsult/s...7Ctwgr%5Etweet

Bernie 32%
Bloomberg 20%
Biden 19%
Buttigieg 12%
Warren 10%
Klobuchar 6%
Steyer 3%
Gabbard 2%

Also, from that same poll, for the first time Bernie is now #1 in the black vote across the nation.

Interesting how closely Bernie's numbers match the poll in this thread so far given how "progressive" this board runs.

bump 02-24-2020 02:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BeepKillBeep (Post 22155974)
Once Trump's campaign starts with the lies the swing voters will vote for him because ultimately the country has not burnt down, so Trump's not that bad, right?

That's my fear- the place hasn't burst into flame, and Sanders' relatively extreme left-wing positions are going to be frightening, or at least generate a little unease in the swing voters, and as a result, the swing voters are going to go with the devil they know.

I honestly think Sanders is the worst possible candidate of the remaining ones because he's extreme; making it a contest of far-left extreme positions vs. Trump isn't a winning one. IMO a better plan would be to make it a relatively moderate, sane, dignified candidate vs. unhinged asshole Trump would be better, especially if they can goad him into acting crazy at every opportunity.

Urbanredneck 02-24-2020 02:54 PM

Frankly I dont think he would be leading in his race anyways if his dem opponents actually called him out on some of the things he has said.

SenorBeef 02-24-2020 02:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Oakminster (Post 22155910)
Bernie is not even winning a majority of his own party at the moment.


Okay, so because Bernie is not winning a majority of the primary votes, therefore someone else, who is winning significantly fewer votes than Bernie in the primaries, and clearly not a majority, is more suited to beat Trump?

This line of thinking really makes no sense. No one really wins a majority of a contested multi-part race. Otherwise it wouldn't really be competitive.




Anyway, to answer the OP's question: I think Bernie could win a fair election against Trump. I do not believe that is what we will have. The GOP has not been de-funding, de-tasking, and otherwise making it easier to rig our elections for no reason. They fully intend, both internally and with external help, to rig the 2020 election. Since democrats have been offering feeble resistance, our news media will not talk about the issue, and no one else is going to save us from this, there is every reason to believe the 2020 election will be flat out rigged. Not just propaganda and influence, not just "legitimate" tools like Gerrymandering, but flat out rigged vote totals. We do not audit our election, and we've only tried to weaken election security even though we know our elections are under attack. Republicans know, now, that they are above the law, and there's no one to stop them. The 2020 election will be 100% rigged like a banana republic.

And there won't even be any consequence for it. No one will get violent, maybe a few little marches here and there. Our corporate owned media will assure is that even though foreign actors clearly wanted to interfere with the election, and even though there's no reason to think they'd stop at propaganda, that don't worry, we're sure no actual vote counts were changed even though we've done nothing whatsoever to verify this.

SenorBeef 02-24-2020 03:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by QuickSilver (Post 22156466)
Interesting how closely Bernie's numbers match the poll in this thread so far given how "progressive" this board runs.

This board is not progressive. This board is firmly in the democratic establishment camp. Fight over issues like identity politics, concede all economic issues to the billionaire class. The board was way more pro-Clinton than pro-Bernie 4 years ago, and it's just as anti-Bernie as it was then, there's just not a clear, good candidate to rally around.

Oakminster 02-24-2020 03:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SenorBeef (Post 22156481)
Okay, so because Bernie is not winning a majority of the primary votes, therefore someone else, who is winning significantly fewer votes than Bernie in the primaries, and clearly not a majority, is more suited to beat Trump?

This line of thinking really makes no sense. No one really wins a majority of a contested multi-part race. Otherwise it wouldn't really be competitive.

The point being that 70% of Dem primary/caucus voters prefer someone who is not Bernie. Figuring Bernie is the most extreme liberal still in the race, an overwhelming amount of his party want someone more moderate than Bernie. They do not necessarily agree on which of the moderate options are best.

SenorBeef 02-24-2020 03:19 PM

You're arbitrarily grouping your choices to make your point. You're saying "oh Bernie is getting 40% of the vote, and not bernie is getting 60%, therefore democrats don't like Bernie" but that's conjecture. In a multi-way competitive election, there's obviously not going to be someone with the majority, because then it would effectively be a non-competitive election.

You seem to be implying that Biden/Buttigieg/whoever would be better, because even if he's polling at 20%, he'll get all those non-Bernie voters, and Bernie will get zero of those voters. But again, this is just an unproven assumption.

The fact that there's a multi-way split in a multi-way competitive race does not indicate that whoever becomes the candidate can't beat Trump. That's not an apples to apples comparison.

Fugazi 02-24-2020 03:23 PM

Bernie takes it all. The Senate flips too.

Left Hand of Dorkness 02-24-2020 03:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Oakminster (Post 22156521)
The point being that 70% of Dem primary/caucus voters prefer someone who is not Bernie. Figuring Bernie is the most extreme liberal still in the race, an overwhelming amount of his party want someone more moderate than Bernie. They do not necessarily agree on which of the moderate options are best.

I linked in a different thread to a chart showing that Bernie is the second choice of more people than any other candidate, as well. And he has a higher approval rating than any other candidate, as well.

I think it's hard for moderates-to-conservatives to hear, but his message of making the economy work for everyone appears to be resonating with a lot of Americans.

Oakminster 02-24-2020 03:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SenorBeef (Post 22156531)
You're arbitrarily grouping your choices to make your point. You're saying "oh Bernie is getting 40% of the vote, and not bernie is getting 60%, therefore democrats don't like Bernie" but that's conjecture. In a multi-way competitive election, there's obviously not going to be someone with the majority, because then it would effectively be a non-competitive election.

You seem to be implying that Biden/Buttigieg/whoever would be better, because even if he's polling at 20%, he'll get all those non-Bernie voters, and Bernie will get zero of those voters. But again, this is just an unproven assumption.

The fact that there's a multi-way split in a multi-way competitive race does not indicate that whoever becomes the candidate can't beat Trump. That's not an apples to apples comparison.

I see the divide as between extreme liberals...who are boisterous out of proportion to their actual numbers...and moderates. A huge majority of the Democratic party is choosing a moderate candidate, but because there are at least three, maybe four serious contenders for the moderate vote, it is splintered among them. Eventually, if the Dems hope to win, the moderate majority will have to come together behind a candidate to get Bernie out of the way, and focus on beating Trump.

QuickSilver 02-24-2020 03:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SenorBeef (Post 22156499)
This board is not progressive. This board is firmly in the democratic establishment camp. Fight over issues like identity politics, concede all economic issues to the billionaire class. The board was way more pro-Clinton than pro-Bernie 4 years ago, and it's just as anti-Bernie as it was then, there's just not a clear, good candidate to rally around.

Are you sure? I bet if we posted a poll giving people the option of keeping the current healthcare insurance status quo, expanding ACA, or going full UHC/MFA, the overwhelming majority would vote for the latter. Free college education might no fare so well but people would be in the majority for lowering costs and reducing student debt. Immigration policy would run more moderate. Energy and environment would run pretty left of moderate. And so on.

It's my gut sense that Democrats (generically speaking) are far more in line with Sanders' policies than they are given credit for. But many are put off by his abrasive personality, age, and lack of political charisma/intelligence. I do not use the term "lack of political intelligence" as pejorative. He just has an uncanny ability to irritating as many as he attracts.

Left Hand of Dorkness 02-24-2020 03:30 PM

Here's that survey.

Second choice for Bloomberg: Biden 28%, Buttigieg 20%, Sanders 20%.
Second choice for Warren: Sanders 38%, Klobuchar 16%, Biden 14%, Buttigieg 14%.
Second choice for Buttigieg: Bloomberg 22%, Klobuchar 22%, Sanders 20%
Second choice for Biden: Sanders 33%, Bloomberg 24%, Warren 14%

I know you can't really add them together, but there are a total of 400 points out there among the 4 candidates. Sanders gets 111 of those points, Biden gets 42, Bloomberg gets 46., nobody else is in the running.

And that's before Nevada.

I'm not at all convinced the lanes exist anymore.

Pantastic 02-24-2020 03:30 PM

I really don't get the idea that 'Bernie can't win because Republicans will call him socialist'. They already call everyone they run against socialist and their base eats it up and vote Republican, so I can't see it making that much of a difference.

Quote:

Originally Posted by QuickSilver (Post 22156466)
Interesting how closely Bernie's numbers match the poll in this thread so far given how "progressive" this board runs.

This board only seems 'progressive' when you compare it to Trump strongholds. Progressives don't support Blue Trump (Bloomberg) at all, and in general consider him to be, well, Trump with MAGA hats in Blue instead of Red. Back in 2016 this board was firmly in the Hillary or Bust (oopsie about that second choice!) camp, and would go on at length about how 'qualified' she was for the job. That's firmly 'establishment', not 'progressive'.

ThelmaLou 02-24-2020 03:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Fugazi (Post 22156542)
Bernie takes it all. The Senate flips too.

Right. And I will be able to get back into the jeans I wore in college. :dubious:

Quote:

Originally Posted by SenorBeef (Post 22156481)
...Anyway, to answer the OP's question: I think Bernie could win a fair election against Trump. I do not believe that is what we will have. The GOP has not been de-funding, de-tasking, and otherwise making it easier to rig our elections for no reason. They fully intend, both internally and with external help, to rig the 2020 election. Since democrats have been offering feeble resistance, our news media will not talk about the issue, and no one else is going to save us from this, there is every reason to believe the 2020 election will be flat out rigged. Not just propaganda and influence, not just "legitimate" tools like Gerrymandering, but flat out rigged vote totals. We do not audit our election, and we've only tried to weaken election security even though we know our elections are under attack. Republicans know, now, that they are above the law, and there's no one to stop them. The 2020 election will be 100% rigged like a banana republic.

And there won't even be any consequence for it. No one will get violent, maybe a few little marches here and there. Our corporate owned media will assure is that even though foreign actors clearly wanted to interfere with the election, and even though there's no reason to think they'd stop at propaganda, that don't worry, we're sure no actual vote counts were changed even though we've done nothing whatsoever to verify this.

This is it in a nutshell. The election will not be fair. It will be rigged, skewed, dishonest, fucked up. The results will not reflect the desires of voters. Just like the last one didn't. Only it will be even worse this time.

And broken record: if the Dems don't take the Senate and keep the House, it doesn't matter what Bernie or anyone else stands for. Moscow Mitch will see to that.

QuickSilver 02-24-2020 03:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ThelmaLou (Post 22156588)
And broken record: if the Dems don't take the Senate and keep the House, it doesn't matter what Bernie or anyone else stands for. Moscow Mitch will see to that.

Very much this, and goodbye yellow brick road.


All times are GMT -5. The time now is 12:58 PM.

Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.7
Copyright ©2000 - 2020, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.

Send questions for Cecil Adams to: cecil@straightdope.com

Send comments about this website to: webmaster@straightdope.com

Terms of Use / Privacy Policy

Advertise on the Straight Dope!
(Your direct line to thousands of the smartest, hippest people on the planet, plus a few total dipsticks.)

Copyright © 2019 STM Reader, LLC.