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-   -   Why was SARS I (2002-2003 outbreak) deadlier (higher case fatality rate) than SARS-CoV-2? (https://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=891975)

MaverocK 03-17-2020 11:45 PM

Why was SARS I (2002-2003 outbreak) deadlier (higher case fatality rate) than SARS-CoV-2?
 
I searched this on google maybe several hours but could not find much relative information. All search results are riddled with the information about the new coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2).
I am rather interested in more theoretical information.
My knowledge from high school biology classes is still relatively fresh so I hope I can understand :)
I am by no means an expert but I suspect that the current case fatality rate might be lower due to the use of remdesivir in China.

China Guy 03-18-2020 12:19 AM

For a non-medical answer. I lived in china through out SARS. First off, it was unexpected. Several hospitals were simply overwhelmed. Toronto is pretty well documented in English, where the first responders, ambulance staff, ER and hospital had no idea what they were dealing with. It spread fast within that community and shut down the hospital.

For SARS, there were "super shedders". May sound goofy but it was the term that my buddy at CDC used. Super Shedders were highly infectious that caused massive outbreaks. Toronto was one, the Tianjin airport was another, and the Metropole Hotel in Hong Kong was a third. One person infect dozens if not in the hundreds of people. If you can't "flatten the curve" and the local health care gets overwhelmed, then more people die.

I'm sure there is also medical reasons, but the above situation was a contributor.

Because of SARS China reacted pretty quickly to Covid 19. One could argue that China should have acted a month earlier, and that may be. One can also plausibly argue that Trump and the US could have reacted at the end of January when China went into national lockdown, but twiddled their thumbs for 6 weeks. Seattle has at least 3x the infected rate and a lot more deaths than my other home of Shanghai with 30 million people.

MaverocK 03-19-2020 12:03 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by China Guy (Post 22196342)
For a non-medical answer. I lived in china through out SARS. First off, it was unexpected. Several hospitals were simply overwhelmed. Toronto is pretty well documented in English, where the first responders, ambulance staff, ER and hospital had no idea what they were dealing with. It spread fast within that community and shut down the hospital.

For SARS, there were "super shedders". May sound goofy but it was the term that my buddy at CDC used. Super Shedders were highly infectious that caused massive outbreaks. Toronto was one, the Tianjin airport was another, and the Metropole Hotel in Hong Kong was a third. One person infect dozens if not in the hundreds of people. If you can't "flatten the curve" and the local health care gets overwhelmed, then more people die.

I'm sure there is also medical reasons, but the above situation was a contributor.

Because of SARS China reacted pretty quickly to Covid 19. One could argue that China should have acted a month earlier, and that may be. One can also plausibly argue that Trump and the US could have reacted at the end of January when China went into national lockdown, but twiddled their thumbs for 6 weeks. Seattle has at least 3x the infected rate and a lot more deaths than my other home of Shanghai with 30 million people.

I see. Then this new SARS-CoV-2 is as deadly as the first SARS virus in 2002 because the hospitals are now overwhelmed as well. I have no idea why it is sometimes claimed that the first SARS virus had a higher fatality rate.

Wesley Clark 03-19-2020 12:15 AM

Another potential factor is that SARS didn't become contagious until after you showed symptoms. For coronavirus you can spread it without having symptoms.

As a result, the number of people who are infectious and properly diagnosed was probably pretty well matched for SARS, while for coronavirus the first group is likely much larger than the second group.

So when you take the death rate over the total infectious rate (and who knows what that is), coronavirus may be less fatal.

sps49sd 03-19-2020 01:28 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by China Guy (Post 22196342)
...One can also plausibly argue that Trump and the US could have reacted at the end of January when China went into national lockdown, but twiddled their thumbs for 6 weeks....

Trump began restricting foreign national's traveling from China at the end of January (and a married pair of my coworkers were detained). And the PRC's response was:

"Many countries have offered China help and support through various ways. In contrast, the U.S. comments and actions are neither based on facts, nor helpful at this particular time, foreign ministry spokesperson Hua Chunying said.

I can not understand why the head of the WHO is complimenting the PRC's handling of the outbreak.

sps49sd 03-19-2020 01:39 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by China Guy (Post 22196342)
...One can also plausibly argue that Trump and the US could have reacted at the end of January when China went into national lockdown, but twiddled their thumbs for 6 weeks....

Trump began restricting foreign national's traveling from China at the end of January (and a married pair of my coworkers were detained). And the PRC's response was:

"Many countries have offered China help and support through various ways. In contrast, the U.S. comments and actions are neither based on facts, nor helpful at this particular time, foreign ministry spokesperson Hua Chunying said.

I can not understand why the head of the WHO is complimenting the PRC's handling of the outbreak.

RioRico 03-19-2020 06:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sps49sd (Post 22198206)
Trump began restricting foreign national's traveling from China at the end of January (and a married pair of my coworkers were detained).

That was a month too late.

China Guy 03-20-2020 12:26 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sps49sd (Post 22198200)
Trump began restricting foreign national's traveling from China at the end of January..

And that's
ALL Trumpy did. He down played the gravity of the situation. Did not mobilize the National Government. Did not declare a National Emergency. Didn't want test kits from Germany. Repeatedly said this isn't a problem, will miraculously disappear by April, ad nauseum.

In other words, didn't do jack squat except pull out his xenophobic playbook to ban furners from these shores. That sure showed that covid 19 who is boss.

sps49sd 03-20-2020 11:52 PM

>It was a month too late
It was still when the WHO and PRC were saying how bad the USA and Australia were for doing so, and only two weeks after the WHO and the PRC were still saying the virus was not being transmitted human-to-human.

>And that's ALL [Trump] did
Just because one despises Trump does not mean one should type obviously false statements.

Ike Witt 03-21-2020 08:21 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sps49sd (Post 22201557)
Just because one despises Trump does not mean one should type obviously false statements.

True enough. Can you please detail, with cites, the things Trump did to actually fight the outbreak?

Manda JO 03-21-2020 09:09 AM

I do wonder how this would have played out if the story had started out as "SARS has reemerged in Asia". I don't think that would be inaccurate: it's SARS virus. I wonder if that would have motivated people more quickly.

RioRico 03-21-2020 11:52 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Manda JO (Post 22201901)
I do wonder how this would have played out if the story had started out as "SARS has reemerged in Asia". I don't think that would be inaccurate: it's SARS virus. I wonder if that would have motivated people more quickly.

Did the US and Western nations learn from SARS1 to deal with SARS2? Are global health responders ready for a guaranteed increase in diseases? That's the forecast - emergent infections + massive travel = continuous contagions. Will wishing make them go away?

sps49sd 03-21-2020 02:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ike Witt (Post 22201832)
True enough. Can you please detail, with cites, the things Trump did to actually fight the outbreak?

Start here, maybe?

Chronos 03-22-2020 08:22 AM

All of this is getting rather far afield of the original question. What was the death rate among those infected with SARS I?

MaverocK 03-24-2020 02:37 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chronos (Post 22203570)
All of this is getting rather far afield of the original question. What was the death rate among those infected with SARS I?

9.6% according to wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2002%E..._SARS_outbreak

But this number includes all countries. In the US, there were 27 cases and 0 fatality. In Germany, there were 9 cases and 0 fatality. In Mongolia, there were 9 cases and 0 fatality.

After seeing each country's case fatality rate, I believe that it was very much like SARS-CoV-2. If the health system (hospitals etc.) are heavily burdened, the fatality rate increases. In countries where they can treat patients effectively, the fatality rates seem low or there seem to be no fatalities.

Damuri Ajashi 03-27-2020 11:41 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sps49sd (Post 22198200)
Trump began restricting foreign national's traveling from China at the end of January (and a married pair of my coworkers were detained). And the PRC's response was:

"Many countries have offered China help and support through various ways. In contrast, the U.S. comments and actions are neither based on facts, nor helpful at this particular time, foreign ministry spokesperson Hua Chunying said.

I can not understand why the head of the WHO is complimenting the PRC's handling of the outbreak.

Credit where credit is due. Banning travel from China probably bought us a month. And he spent that month whistling past the graveyard.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_c...ment_responses

What did he do between banning travel from China and March 13th beyond denying that COVID19 was a problem?

-He started a task force in January to replace the pandemic task force that he had abolished earlier in his administration. It hasn't really done much until March.
February 25 was the first day the CDC told the American public to prepare for an outbreak

-He was downplaying COVID19 until March 10th before he declared a national emergency on March 13th.

-10 days ago, on March 17th, FEMA started stockpiling medical supplies.

-Now he is floating the notion of rolling back mitigation efforts because the economy is taking a hit.

-Other than the shutdown of China travel (which was a good thing), has the administration done anything else that you feel was timely or prescient?

MaverocK 04-06-2020 06:07 PM

How is Donald Trump relevant to this question? I guess many Americans want to bring it up in discussions but I cannot see anything relevant to the OP.

Francis Vaughan 04-06-2020 07:35 PM

MERS has worse numbers than SARS, so it is interesting to contrast that as well.

Obviously each is slightly different in the way it attacks, so one would expect differences there, but there are clearly differences in the timeline of how each outbreak was handled, as experience was gained and both medical and social measures were better understood.


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