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Tom Scud 10-31-2019 01:53 PM

MLB Off Season/Hot Stove
 
Congratulations to the Nationals!

This is the thread for post-World Series discussion, including speculation about year-end awards, management/coaching changes, free agents, trades, and so on.

My Astros have finally hit the point where the finances are going to start to pull the team apart - it's hard to see how they can re-sign Gerrit Cole and also hang on to George Springer and Carlos Correa and also keep all the players they already have signed. Something is going to give, probably Cole.

On the post-season awards, I don't really know the NL, but in the AL, I'd guess:

MVP: Alex Bregman over Mike Trout - even five years ago this would have been a gimme - people would say, "Mike Trout had a great year but didn't play for a contender." Given that Bregman drew basically level with Trout in the two main WAR calculations, I think that factor will still have some relevance.

Cy Young: Justin Verlander over Gerrit Cole. By the narrowest of margins - here I think the momentum from Verlander starting stronger early in the year will carry him over the line. The two are nearly identical in their value added.

Rookie of the Year: Yordan Alvarez over nobody else really stands out. Baby Vlad?

Manager of the Year: Probably Aaron Boone, could be the managers of any of the playoff teams, really, apart from Hinch, whose success wasn't surprising/overachieving enough to win this award.

cmkeller 10-31-2019 02:50 PM

To no one's surprise, Mike Matheny has been named new manager of the Royals.

For NL Rookie of the Year, it's got to be Pete Alonso of the Mets.

madsircool 10-31-2019 03:17 PM

Predictions:

Gerrit Cole and Cole Hamels to the LAA

Strasberg to the Pads

Rendon stays in Wash

MadBum and Chapman to the LAD

The 2020 Election will be about a week after the completion of the 2020 WS. Either America will embrace the WS as an escape from politics or somehow politics will work itself into the WS. The 2019 WS will be seen as baseball at its best.

madsircool 10-31-2019 03:48 PM

Angels acquire Parker Markel from the Pirates for cash. Im already requesting days off for the next Angels World Series victory parade down Katella. :p

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/...er-markel.html

dalej42 10-31-2019 04:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by madsircool (Post 21948676)
Predictions:

Gerrit Cole and Cole Hamels to the LAA

Strasberg to the Pads

Rendon stays in Wash

MadBum and Chapman to the LAD

The 2020 Election will be about a week after the completion of the 2020 WS. Either America will embrace the WS as an escape from politics or somehow politics will work itself into the WS. The 2019 WS will be seen as baseball at its best.

Iím not sure. I think the Cubs World Series win was a nice distraction from the 2016 race. Iím in Chicago so there arenít a lot of Trumpers here but I can see how watching the Cubs vs Indians, two teams that havenít had much luck in a long time can help people get together over baseball and forget about Hillary or Trump for a while.

Barkis is Willin' 10-31-2019 04:12 PM

How can the Phillies best rid themselves of Bryce Harper so they can win the WS next year?

Larry Borgia 10-31-2019 04:36 PM

I really hope the Nats can keep both Strasburg and Rendon. Not sure if it's gonna be possible.

silenus 10-31-2019 06:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by madsircool (Post 21948676)
Predictions:

Gerrit Cole and Cole Hamels to the LAA

Strasberg to the Pads

Rendon stays in Wash

MadBum and Chapman to the LAD.

I'm good with all of these. Although I'd love to see the Dodgers spring for Rendon. MadBum can go somewhere else if we get a young, hot hitting third baseman. Turner shifts to first easily. Trade off Pederson and/or Seager, shoot Kelly, and let me slap the shit out of Roberts and we can call it good.

RickJay 11-01-2019 08:19 AM

I think Gerrit Cole to the Angels is one of the safer bets in the free agency market you can make right now. The Angels have money and no pitching. They still have two more years of the ghastly Pujols deal to pay off but there's light at the end of that tunnel now.

In terms of award winners, Pete Alonso is about as easy a bet as you can make. For AL ROY, I assume Yordan Alvarez wins easily.

AL MVP will be an interesting thing; Mike Trout looked like he was running away with it but then missed a lot of September, and being on a shit team doesn't help. ESPN ranks AL players by WAR this way:

Alex Bregman - 8.4
Mike Trout - 8.3
Marcus Semien - 8.1
Justin Verlander - 7.8
Mike Minor - 7.8
Lance Lynn - 7.8
Gerrit Cole - 6.9

I'd be fine with Bregman or Semien. Honestly I don't think I'd put Trout at the top of my ballot.

The NL is similar; Christian Yelich missing the end of the year does not help, so Bellinger likely wins, and deserves to.

Superdude 11-01-2019 12:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RickJay (Post 21949754)
I ...and being on a shit team doesn't help...

<Post snipped>

It's not always a hindrance, however. See Andre Dawson.

Damuri Ajashi 11-01-2019 01:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Larry Borgia (Post 21948805)
I really hope the Nats can keep both Strasburg and Rendon. Not sure if it's gonna be possible.

Its possible. But the thing about Deez Nats is that it's a real ensemble cast. And a lot of the cast has free agency or some sort of option coming this off season.

Pitching:

Strasburg would effectively be opting out of a 4 year 100 million dollar contract. I suspect that if we extended the contract for a year or two about the same rate, he would sign. If he leaves anyway then we might be able to pick up Ryu or Cole. I think they are all managed by Boras. You can never tell what he will, do but his clients frequently hold out until the last possible moment

We should exercise the club option on Doolittle.

Hellicksen, Rodney and most of the other free agent relief pitchers should be politely shown the door.

Hudson seems worth keeping around for the right price. His 2019 contract was a 1 year contract for 1.5 million. I don't think he will be particularly cheap unless the Nats to try and sign him to a 3 or 4 year contract.

Catcher:

We have an option on Gomes. I think the Nats like having two good catchers in Gomes and Suzuki. I think Gomes is probably going to get his one year extension. However, the Nats could probably save 5 million on someone cheaper without sacrificing much if anything at all so they may shop around a bit.

1B:

Nats should probably opt out of Zimmerman. His high price tag along with his negative WAR makes it hard to justify the $18 million salary. However he is fan favorite so I hope they try to renegotiate to something lower and maybe longer in a part time role.

2B:

If we keep Rendon, we will probably say goodbye to two of Dozier, Kendrick and Cabrera. Kieboom is on deck. We could keep Cabrera if h is cheap enough because he can play anywhere in the infield but Dozier seems expensive and Kendrick is probably better off in the AL as a DH or something.

SS:

I hope they buy out Trea's arb years and give him a 7-8 year contract, It seems like he will only get better and it's easier to keep a 33-34 year old free agent than a 30 year old one.

3B:

Rendon was reportedly ready to sign an Altuve type deal at the beginning of the year (7 year $164 million), a lot has happened since then. The current offer is about 50 million higher with an AAV similar to Arenado and higher than Machado and while it is rumored to be somewhat backloaded, it is not overly so. He might get more as a free agent but not a lot more. I don't think Rendon is going to move to chase a few extra dollars unless someone makes him an offer he can't refuse. If someone does make him a better offer, we can try to pick up Josh Donaldson from the Braves (heck we might just end up swapping 3rd basemen with Atlanta). Our break glass in case of emergency situation would be to promote Kieboom or Garcia.

LF:

Juan Soto is another guy they should try to lock down.

RF:

The Nat have an option on Eaton for 9.5 million with a 1.5 million buyout. For a marginal cost of 8 million, Eaton seems like a keeper.

Where to spend money:

We could use a third good pitcher in our bullpen. I wonder how much it would cost to grab

Larry Borgia 11-01-2019 01:42 PM

That makes sense, Damuri. I'll admit I'm mostly a casual fan and am fairly ignorant of the behind the scenes negotiations.

RickJay 11-01-2019 02:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Superdude (Post 21950274)
<Post snipped>

It's not always a hindrance, however. See Andre Dawson.

True, and Cal Ripken in 1991. There was Giancarlo Stanton in 2017, too, and A-Rod in 2003. It's pretty unusual though. Only about 25% of MVP Awards go to players on non playoff teams, and they're usually at least teams with winning records.

Damuri Ajashi 11-01-2019 03:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Larry Borgia (Post 21950378)
That makes sense, Damuri. I'll admit I'm mostly a casual fan and am fairly ignorant of the behind the scenes negotiations.

Me too. But right now everyone in the DC area thinks they're Mike Rizzo. It's like how everyone turns into a gymnastics expert during the Olympics.

Almost no one wants to see Rendon leave. But if he rejects a 215 million dollar offer then I don't know that we blame Mike Rizzo, I think we blame Scott Boras.

We still have to see what happens with Strasburg.

storyteller0910 11-01-2019 03:04 PM

It looks like the Mets are going to hire Carlos Beltran as their manager. I honestly have no idea how I feel about this development.

Atamasama 11-01-2019 03:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by storyteller0910 (Post 21950533)
It looks like the Mets are going to hire Carlos Beltran as their manager. I honestly have no idea how I feel about this development.

I didnít realize he retired as a player, I saw him play many times as an Astro. Heís also the same age as myself and Tom Brady.

Tom Scud 11-01-2019 03:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by storyteller0910 (Post 21950533)
It looks like the Mets are going to hire Carlos Beltran as their manager. I honestly have no idea how I feel about this development.

Conventional wisdom is that Hall of Fame players don't make good managers - I think only Frank Robinson and Joe Torre (near-HOF player) managed to be good at both. Not sure if it's true or just that people remember the failed hall of famers more than they do the guys who have no other distinction besides a single failed stint as a major-league manager. (Or if you're Jimy Williams, three failed stints.)

jaycat 11-01-2019 04:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Damuri Ajashi (Post 21950348)
1B:

Nats should probably opt out of Zimmerman. His high price tag along with his negative WAR makes it hard to justify the $18 million salary. However he is fan favorite so I hope they try to renegotiate to something lower and maybe longer in a part time role.

Best case scenario might be to transition Zim into a coaching role of some sort.

Nice run-down, Damuri.

Thudlow Boink 11-01-2019 05:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tom Scud (Post 21950599)
Conventional wisdom is that Hall of Fame players don't make good managers - I think only Frank Robinson and Joe Torre (near-HOF player) managed to be good at both.

Red Schoendienst?

RealityChuck 11-01-2019 05:26 PM

Bill Terry, too.

Omniscient 11-01-2019 05:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RickJay (Post 21950511)
True, and Cal Ripken in 1991. There was Giancarlo Stanton in 2017, too, and A-Rod in 2003. It's pretty unusual though. Only about 25% of MVP Awards go to players on non playoff teams, and they're usually at least teams with winning records.

Baseball people (writers, fans, whoever) seem incredibly inconsistent with this stuff. For the most part baseball is largely thought of a as a series of isolated contests in which outside factors have little impact. The sample sizes of games and at bats are large enough that everything essentially regresses to the mean. That's a long way of saying that a player's quality, at least at the plate, is highly quantifiable. "Clutch" as a concept is about as real as chiropracty.

So, if we can measure a player's contributions so well in isolation, why the heck would it matter how many wins the team had?

OldGuy 11-01-2019 08:20 PM

The worst team record for an MVP candidate was the Cubs' 72-82 0.468 record in 1958 when Ernie Banks won. He was a repeat winner the next year when the Cubs improved to 74-80 0.481. Andre Dawson won it with the Cubs in 1987 when they went 76-86 0.472. Is it something about the Cubbies?

RickJay 11-01-2019 08:34 PM

Actually, Oldguy, the worst team record for a team with an MVP was the 1991 Orioles, 67-95.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Omniscient (Post 21950790)
So, if we can measure a player's contributions so well in isolation, why the heck would it matter how many wins the team had?

I dunno; it's just how it is. I think there is something to be said for concluding that we don't always know for sure who the best player is; I think it insane for a person to be certain the guy with the 8.3 WAR is definitely better than the guy with the 8.1, and in such a case maybe you factor in things like "if he's so good why did his team go 72-90?"

MOST MVP Awards did not go to the person I'd have picked - well, maybe half - but most were pretty defensible, anyway, and the ones to losing team players have generally always been decent choices because the guy had to be REALLY good. Only Dawson was an awful pick.

Hawkeyeop 11-02-2019 12:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by storyteller0910 (Post 21950533)
It looks like the Mets are going to hire Carlos Beltran as their manager. I honestly have no idea how I feel about this development.

I like Beltran, but the track record of manager with no managerial experience anywhere is not great, the track record of hall of fame players managing is not great, the track record of Met hires is not great, and the Met hiring process all of over the place. Thus it is difficult to be optomistic here. Sadly, the best sign is the Yankees considered hiring him too, and they are usually pretty good at this.

Atamasama 11-02-2019 01:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jaycat (Post 21950710)
Best case scenario might be to transition Zim into a coaching role of some sort.

The Mariners did that for Ichiro. He signed back to the team in 2018 because he knew his career was winding down (he was the second-oldest active player in the MLB) and wanted to end it with the team he loved. Fans still adored him and it was a popular move. But he only played for 15 games before the team announced that heíd be moved to the front office as a ďspecial assistant to the chairmanĒ. A week later he filled in as interim bench coach for a couple of days.

In 2019 he played in the Marinersí season opener in Tokyo, and also in the following game, which was his last game played in the MLB. He was the second-oldest player in MLB history to start for a team in their season opener. He left the Tokyo Dome to applause from his Japanese fans and was able to end his career as the player on his home team in his home country. It was pretty special. He officially retired later in the day but returned to his front office role with the team.

So there are definitely ways to honor a player who is immensely popular but canít really contribute on the field.

Mike Mabes 11-02-2019 08:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hawkeyeop (Post 21951768)
I like Beltran, but the track record of manager with no managerial experience anywhere is not great, the track record of hall of fame players managing is not great, the track record of Met hires is not great, and the Met hiring process all of over the place. Thus it is difficult to be optomistic here. Sadly, the best sign is the Yankees considered hiring him too, and they are usually pretty good at this.

I disagree. 8 of the 10 playoff teams this year had manager's whose first job was with that team (a couple managed in the minors). Aaron Boone was in his first year with the Yankees this year. Cora managed the Red Sox who won the Series in his first year. And whether or not a manager was a hall of fame player is irrelevant. Most former players who are not in the hall who became managers weren't great managers.

Beltran should get along great with the young players and can help them with hitting or in the field, and he should be able to handle the NY media pressure.

None of this means he will be good but I'm not how much it matters. After the break this year the Mets won more games than all but one team in baseball (I was shocked when I saw this recently, I knew they had a good record but not that good) and they did this with Calloway. I think baseball manager is by far the most overrated job in sports.

Anyway, LGFM!

What Exit? 11-03-2019 03:10 PM

Yanks extended Chapman 1 yr for $18m to keep him from opting out. That is up from the remaining 2 years at $15m per. So closer is secure for Yanks at almost no hit to the luxury cap threshold.

Damuri Ajashi 11-03-2019 04:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jaycat (Post 21950710)
Best case scenario might be to transition Zim into a coaching role of some sort.

Nice run-down, Damuri.

The Nats have bought out both matt Adams and Zimmerman. Now they have noone at 1B.

Considering the slim pickings in this year's 1B free agent market, Zimmerman might be good for another year or two until better options hit free agency.

The Nats now have over 100 million in payroll capacity with noone at 1st, 2nd, 3rd (they will probably want to try Kieboom at 2nd). They also need a starting pitcher for Strasburg's spot and some bullpen support (particularly whatever Hudson will cost). This is going to be a busy off season for them.

I like the position they are in. 100 million should be enough for all of this plus some upgrades.

RickJay 11-03-2019 04:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mike Mabes (Post 21952247)
And whether or not a manager was a hall of fame player is irrelevant. Most former players who are not in the hall who became managers weren't great managers.

The point being made was that Hall of Fame calibre players, which Beltran is, DON'T make great managers.

I don't know that matters or is even something we can know, because

1. Most managers are not great managers, not matter how good they were as players,

2. The number of Hall of Famers who've become managers is pretty limited, so it might not mean anything. After all, men motivated to become managers were generally those who needed a job, which former Hall of Fame caliber players often are not desperate for, and

3. It is certainly the case that some very fine players became good managers, and

4. It is not obviously the case that the conditions of modern baseball and what makes a good manager are the same as what they used to be. They are VERY different from what they were a hundred years ago; the job of someone like John McGraw was not anything at all like what a manager's job is now. The record of managers in the 1910s or 1920s has nothing to do with modern baseball and the baseball of the 1950s was very, very different.

RickJay 11-03-2019 04:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Damuri Ajashi (Post 21953241)
The Nats have bought out both matt Adams and Zimmerman. Now they have noone at 1B.

Considering the slim pickings in this year's 1B free agent market, Zimmerman might be good for another year or two until better options hit free agency.

I have great respect for Zim's career accomplshments but at this point he as effectively no value as a player at any salary. They can pick up better ballplayers for very little.

Washington might have had the worst performance at first base of any team in the league. They had to have had the worst first basemen of a World Champion I can think of. I can see why they'd want to upgrade. Maybe they'll hand Andrew Stevenson a trapper and tell him to give it a shot.

What Exit? 11-03-2019 06:20 PM

Good list of the top 50 Free Agents from CBS: https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/t...on-the-market/

Damuri Ajashi 11-03-2019 09:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RickJay (Post 21953256)
I have great respect for Zim's career accomplshments but at this point he as effectively no value as a player at any salary. They can pick up better ballplayers for very little.

Washington might have had the worst performance at first base of any team in the league. They had to have had the worst first basemen of a World Champion I can think of. I can see why they'd want to upgrade. Maybe they'll hand Andrew Stevenson a trapper and tell him to give it a shot.

Here are the available free agents that are identified as 1st basemen:

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/free-agents/1st-base/

Smoak, Thames, and Moreland are the only ones with a positive WAR. Who am I missing?

Thames is subject to a club option that should get exercised.

I would love to pick up Smoak for a few years after an off year for a reasonable price. Toronto has a rookie that looks promising so they may not fight too hard to keep him.

I think Boston will lock up Moreland early.

nightshadea 11-04-2019 01:40 AM

any news on the dodgers getting a new manager that everyone says they need?

RickJay 11-04-2019 09:06 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Damuri Ajashi (Post 21953703)
Here are the available free agents that are identified as 1st basemen:

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/free-agents/1st-base/

Smoak, Thames, and Moreland are the only ones with a positive WAR. Who am I missing?

Thames is subject to a club option that should get exercised.

I would love to pick up Smoak for a few years after an off year for a reasonable price. Toronto has a rookie that looks promising so they may not fight too hard to keep him.

I think Boston will lock up Moreland early.

Toronto will not re-sign Justin Smoak. He's available. I don't know that he's a super attractive option for Washington but he'd be okay for a discount.

You missed Jose Abreu, who is still a pretty good ballplayer, Edwin Encarnacion, who can still hit the ball a thousand feet, and while he's played very little there, Mike Moustakas is available and could play first base. I am not saying, though, that those are great choices. There are times when maybe you don't want to fill a hole for the sake of filling it, and especially at first base, which is one of the easier positions to fill, taking a chance on some kids and lower grade pickups might be a good idea if no real A-listers are handy. Save the money and reload in 2021.

Damuri Ajashi 11-04-2019 11:58 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RickJay (Post 21954160)
Toronto will not re-sign Justin Smoak. He's available. I don't know that he's a super attractive option for Washington but he'd be okay for a discount.

You missed Jose Abreu, who is still a pretty good ballplayer, Edwin Encarnacion, who can still hit the ball a thousand feet, and while he's played very little there, Mike Moustakas is available and could play first base. I am not saying, though, that those are great choices. There are times when maybe you don't want to fill a hole for the sake of filling it, and especially at first base, which is one of the easier positions to fill, taking a chance on some kids and lower grade pickups might be a good idea if no real A-listers are handy. Save the money and reload in 2021.

I've been hearing that we're picking up Moustakas. I thought it was to replace Rendon but perhaps it's for 1B and we're still in the hunt for Rendon.

Smoak would be that stopgap you're talking about (I don't think we have any prospects). Abreu seems to make an error every other game.

Damuri Ajashi 11-04-2019 01:57 PM

Apparently the Nats are talking to Zimmerman. Probably a 1 year deal as a part time 1st baseman with pay consistent with a part time role.

Strasburg and Rendon continue to be represented by Boras so we mamay not know where they end up until the All Star break.

Mike Mabes 11-04-2019 04:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RickJay (Post 21953249)
The point being made was that Hall of Fame calibre players, which Beltran is, DON'T make great managers.

I don't know that matters or is even something we can know, because

1. Most managers are not great managers, not matter how good they were as players,

2. The number of Hall of Famers who've become managers is pretty limited, so it might not mean anything. After all, men motivated to become managers were generally those who needed a job, which former Hall of Fame caliber players often are not desperate for, and

3. It is certainly the case that some very fine players became good managers, and

4. It is not obviously the case that the conditions of modern baseball and what makes a good manager are the same as what they used to be. They are VERY different from what they were a hundred years ago; the job of someone like John McGraw was not anything at all like what a manager's job is now. The record of managers in the 1910s or 1920s has nothing to do with modern baseball and the baseball of the 1950s was very, very different.

That is what I was saying. Most non-HOF players aren't great managers, and most HOF players are not great managers

Munch 11-04-2019 07:10 PM

Let's boil it down to "most managers are not great managers".

P-man 11-04-2019 08:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RickJay (Post 21953256)
I have great respect for Zim's career accomplshments but at this point he as effectively no value as a player at any salary. They can pick up better ballplayers for very little.

Washington might have had the worst performance at first base of any team in the league. They had to have had the worst first basemen of a World Champion I can think of. I can see why they'd want to upgrade. Maybe they'll hand Andrew Stevenson a trapper and tell him to give it a shot.

37 home runs and 128 RBI from first basemen; remember that's where Howie Kendrick played the most. That said, they're going to need an upgrade there. Maybe Smoak or Thames to platoon with Zim.

Damuri Ajashi 11-05-2019 07:28 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by P-man (Post 21955437)
37 home runs and 128 RBI from first basemen; remember that's where Howie Kendrick played the most. That said, they're going to need an upgrade there. Maybe Smoak or Thames to platoon with Zim.

Looks like Thames is available.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.usa...m/amp/40545503

RickJay 11-05-2019 07:57 AM

A thread for the "Modern Baseball" Hall of Fame Ballot:

https://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb...d.php?t=884930

Tom Scud 11-05-2019 09:20 AM

Awards top-three announced - no huge surprises here:

linky

Jackmannii 11-05-2019 10:31 AM

There's an extensive analysis by Bill Fleming on billjamesonline looking at the track records of great/excellent baseball players who became managers. His conclusion was that overall, great players might not have made great managers, but were pretty good ones.

One thing he points out is that some Hall of Fame players were saddled with managing lousy teams (Frank Robinson for instance) but actually did a good job with what they had. Ted Williams (who is panned by some for expecting too much of his hitters) had a major part in improving the Senators from 65-96 to 86-76 and received a manager-of-the-year award. Rogers Hornsby was disliked by many of his players (and owners) and had an overall losing record in the majors, but his track record includes a 1926 championship with the Cardinals and multiple other successful seasons in the major and minor leagues.

RickJay 11-05-2019 11:25 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jackmannii
One thing he points out is that some Hall of Fame players were saddled with managing lousy teams (Frank Robinson for instance) but actually did a good job with what they had.

Frank Robinson must have had the patience of a saint. He took over the Cleveland Indians in the period when they were a total afterthought, and they played okay for him. He took over a lost-at-sea Giants team and got a shocking numbers of wins out of them. He took over a completely threadbare Orioles team, and after a dreadful 1988 dcamn near wonthe division in 1989. Then he got a couple of winning records out of a bankrupt Expos team. If only he'd had a job with a good club.

harmonicamoon 11-05-2019 12:51 PM

Manager of the year 2019 season
 
AL

I am going with Aaron Boone. Won over 100 games while shuffling so many injured and healthy players. Incredible.

NL

Not so easy decision. In fact, not a clue. Can you help me on this one?

RickJay 11-05-2019 01:53 PM

I don't think the Nationals were picked by a lot of folks to make the playoffs, and the Cardinals were a surprise too.

Fotheringay-Phipps 11-05-2019 02:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mike Mabes (Post 21955028)
That is what I was saying. Most non-HOF players aren't great managers, and most HOF players are not great managers

I think it's probably a bit more complicated than that.

If you assume that on average great players and non-great player are about equal in managerial skills, I would expect that great players would perform worse as managers. That's because given two people with otherwise-identical indications of managerial talent, a great player is more likely to be given a shot as manager, as compared to someone who was not a great player.

IOW, great players with shaky managerial skills are more likely to be given a shot as manager compared to others, so there are likely to be more unqualified great players who have managed. But it's not as if having been a great player is itself a negative attribute.

Colibri 11-05-2019 02:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RickJay (Post 21956719)
I don't think the Nationals were picked by a lot of folks to make the playoffs, and the Cardinals were a surprise too.

Martinez isn't a finalist for Manager of the Year, although Shildt of the Cardinals is.

Blank Slate 11-06-2019 07:35 AM

I'm going to be disloyal and back Kevin Cash for manager of the year in the AL. Coaxing 96 wins out of that Tampa roster is pretty impressive.

Hawkeyeop 11-06-2019 09:36 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mike Mabes (Post 21952247)
I disagree. 8 of the 10 playoff teams this year had manager's whose first job was with that team (a couple managed in the minors). Aaron Boone was in his first year with the Yankees this year. Cora managed the Red Sox who won the Series in his first year.

I'm not saying you need to hire Buck Showalter. Minor league manager experience is experience. Cora coached in the majors and managed winter ball. Boone does seem to be doing okay without any experience other than announcing so it can work. It would seem better when hiring a manager to ensure they have done something similar before and were good at it.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mike Mabes (Post 21952247)
Beltran should get along great with the young players and can help them with hitting or in the field, and he should be able to handle the NY media pressure.

These seems like things we can't know as an outsider. Being a boss is different than being a teammate. Maybe he will be and maybe he won't.

Quote:


None of this means he will be good but I'm not how much it matters. After the break this year the Mets won more games than all but one team in baseball (I was shocked when I saw this recently, I knew they had a good record but not that good) and they did this with Calloway. I think baseball manager is by far the most overrated job in sports.

Anyway, LGFM!
This I agree with. Calloway was both not a great manager and not the cause of the Mets problems.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Fotheringay-Phipps (Post 21956748)
I think it's probably a bit more complicated than that.

If you assume that on average great players and non-great player are about equal in managerial skills

The theory is that great players have a harder time relating/teaching non-great players who don't have as much natural talent. I'm not sure what evidence there is to support this.


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